Archive - Jan 5, 2016 - Story

Priorities...

Moments ago, according to Alriyadh.com, a bus belonging to Saudi Aramco was torched in a "terrorist assault" by “four armed rioters” in the country's unrest-filled Qatif region.

It's not China, stupid... It's The Fed. "What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect... and an uncomfortable digestive period is likely now." Simply put Fisher concludes, there can't be much more accomodation, "The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left."

WTI Crude prices just broke back to a $35 handle for the first time since mid-December as the combination of un-growth, Saudi price cuts, a rancorous OPEC, and production increases weigh on the world's most important commodity. At the same time, oil producers are getting hit with the Canadian Dollar plunging above 1.4000 to its lowest since 2003...

After getting hammered on the first trading day of 2016, what can we expect from the stock market?

Fed policymakers seem to be of the view that the almost zero federal funds rate and their massive monetary pumping has cured the economy, which now seems to be approaching a path of stable economic growth and price stability, so it is held. Yet, manipulations by the Fed could not bring the economy onto a path of stability and prosperity but, on the contrary, set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. This raises the likelihood that the elimination of bubbles as a result of a tighter stance while good in the long-term for wealth generators is likely to trigger a severe economic slump in the near to medium term.

Day 2 of Obama's gun sales push is going well...

Yesterday's miraculous dip-buying in Apple stock has been erased as yet another wourse raises concerns about iPhone production:

*APPLE MAY CUT IPHONE 6S, 6S PLUS PRODUCTION BY ~30%: NIKKEI

The stock is down 2.5% on the news. Time to unleash moar buybacks!!

"We lack enough space in our stockpiles to house our missiles. Hundreds of long tunnels are full of missiles ready to fly to protect your integrity, independence and freedom. Those who threaten Iran with their military option on the table would better take a look at Iran’s ‘options under the table,’ namely the missile arsenals. Iran’s known military power is only the tip of the iceberg."

Amid threats from various Republican Congressmen, soaring pre-emptive gun sales, and a majority of Americans (56%) believe that if more Americans carried concealed weapons the country would be safer; President Obama is set today to formally announce his executive action new gun-control measures.

The one thing executives should have learned in 2015 is that Wall Street can for long periods of time remain disconnected from fundamentals and can swing to extremes. Another lesson from 2015 is that OPEC can no longer be relied upon to set prices. Thus, the debt fueled financing boom in the shale space will most likely never return.  This is especially true now that there are clear signs that the U.S. economy is weakening while the Fed chose to raise the federal interest rates in December. As we move through 2016, expect a rash of bankruptcies tied to this transition to lower leverage, and towards the latter half of 2016 there will likely be a steep fall off of production.

Yesterday JPM, which despite calling for a 2,200 year end price target, paradoxically warned that the regime of "buying dips" is over, and that "we take the view that equities are unlikely to perform well on a 12-24 month horizon" adding that "the regime of buying the dips might be over and selling any rallies might be the new one." So don't buy dips yet somehow the S&P will rise 150 points? Fair enough. Today, it is Citigroup's turn to try to somehow predict both a 12% "gain for global equities in 2016" even as it tells clients to start selling US stocks because "fading EPS momentum and rising Fed funds mean that, after 6 consecutive years of outperformance, we cut the US to Underweight."

"The Saudis are preparing for Iran’s return," said Mohamed Sadegh Memarian, who recently retired as the head of petroleum market analysis at Iran’s oil ministry, as they sharply cut the prices they charge for crude oil in Europe (to the biggest discount since Feb 2009). The move that will likely undercut Iran happens as sectarian tensions escalate between the rival Middle Eastern nations.

"The next twelve months will be an especially dangerous time for Americans who treasure our Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms," warns Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas), chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee that oversees the Justice Department (DoJ). As The Hill reports, his warning, in a letter to Attorney General Loretta Lynch, follows a threat to block President Obama's executive order on guns by defunding the DoJ.