Archive - 2016 - Story

While previously there was some ambiguity with regard to who actually perpetrated the attacks which allegedly unfolded in Cologne on New Year's Eve, authorities are now sure that "most" of those involved were "freshly traveled asylum seekers." From Die Welt: "Primarily it was the most Arab perpetrators to sexual offenses or, to put it from their point of view to their sexual amusement. A group of men circling a female victim, closes it and takes on the woman."

If you had not noticed, 2016 has begun with gold and the USD rising simultaneously. This is different and important. This is very positive for gold and very bad for the world...

Update: *SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX FALLS 2.04%(AFTER BEING UP 3.2%)

With all eyes on Chinese FX and equity markets, following the worst start to a year for US (and Chinese) stocks in history, PBOC decided (after 7 straight days of devaluation and 7% devaluation since August) to halt the run and increase Yuan fix by a paltry 0.01% to 6.5636 (notably below yesterday's 6.5939 CNY close). Offshore Yuan is strengthening and US equity markets are jumping. Chinese equity markets (now theoretically unhampered by their circuit-breaker panic switch) are far less impressed.

For most investors, the major story of 2015 was the expectation and eventual fulfillment of a rate hike, signalling the start of tightening monetary policy in the United States. This policy is divergent to those of other major central banks, and this has translated into considerable strength and momentum for the U.S. dollar. Despite this strength, the best performing currency in 2015 was not the dollar. In fact, the top currency of 2015 is likely to be considered the furthest thing from the greenback.

It's all up to China tonight.

"In retrospect, Obama’s intervention in Libya was an abject failure, judged even by its own standards. Libya has not only failed to evolve into a democracy; it has devolved into a failed state...As bad as Libya’s human rights situation was under Qaddafi, it has gotten worse since NATO ousted him."

Fico said Thursday his government sees what he calls a "clear link" between the waves of refugees and the Paris attacks and the sexual assaults and robberies during the New Year's Eve festivities in Germany. He says: "We don't want what happened in Germany to happen here."  Fico says "the idea of multicultural Europe has failed" and that "the migrants cannot be integrated, it's simply impossible."

Daniel Yergin and other experts say that U.S. tight oil is the swing oil producer of the world. They are wrong. It is preposterous to say that the world’s largest oil importer is also its swing producer. There are two types of oil producers in the world: those who have the will and the means to affect market prices, and those who react to them. In other words, the swing producer and everyone else.

While the "sell in 1973, and go away" plan had worked out for some in the commodity space, the destruction of the last decade has only one historical comparison... the middle of The Great Depression.

One of the (many) fascinating things about this latest global financial crisis is that there’s no single catalyst. Unlike 2008 when the carnage could be traced back to US subprime housing, or 2000 when tech stocks crashed and pulled down everything else, this time around a whole bunch of seemingly-unrelated things are unraveling all at once.

Sempra Energy may be entering uncharted regulatory and technical territory with the massive and uncontained Aliso Canyon gas leak, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, as the company and its regulators simply cannot find historical leaks of this magnitude. Sempra’s Southern California Gas Co. is drilling a relief well but has warned that capping the well could take two months which has prompted massive evacuations in the area, the instigation of a no-fly zone, and now Governor Brown's declaration of a state of emergency to protect residents.

Having correctly foreseen in September that "China's devaluations are not over yet" it appears Nomura's infamous 'bear' Bob Janjuah has also nailed The Fed's subsequent actions (hiking rates into a fundamentally weakening economy in a desperate bid to "convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their way back"). In light of this, his latest note today should be worrisome to many as he warns the S&P 500 will trade down around 20% to 25% from current levels in H1, down to the 1500s and for dip-buyers, it's over: "I now feel even more certain that debt-driven asset bubble implosions cannot merely be 'fixed' with even more debt and another round of central bank-driven asset bubbles."