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Senior-level sources in numerous Middle Eastern governments have privately expressed bewilderment at recent and current U.S. government strategies and policies toward the region. But a closer examination of U.S. policies, now almost entirely dictated by the Obama White House, shows no cohesive national goals or policies exist, but rather an ad hoc set of actions and reactions, which are largely dictated either by ideological positions, ignorance, whim, or perceived expedience.

If there was one silver-lining in the oil complex, it was the demand for VLCCs (as huge floating storage facilities or as China scooped up 'cheap' oil to refill their reserves) which drove tanker rates to record highs. Now, as Bloomberg notes so eloquently, it appears the party is over! Daily rates for benchmark Saudi Arabia-Japan VLCC cargoes have crashed 53% year-to-date to $50,955 (as it appears China's record crude imports have ceased).

Post-Baathist Iraq is rife with sectarian discord, a post-Assad Syria would likely be an even bloodier free-for-all than it already is, and post-Gaddafi Libya is a failed state with two governments each claiming legitimacy. These types of environments are exploitable by extremists eager to capitalize on the chaos by seizing resources and, ultimately, power.

"The fact that market volatility is on the rise and the Fed is raising interest rates further increases the probability of a Bear Market. The current option-implied probability of a bear market (i.e. ~20% decline this year) is about 25%. While there is no way to predict a bear market, below we look at various scenarios, and estimate that the probability of a bear market may be nearly twice as large."

We want this time to be different so badly, we can almost taste it. But this time is only different on the margins; the flavor of the bust remains the taste of ashes.

“The bulk cash distribution site was used by [ISIS] to distribute money to fund terrorist activities. We estimate in the millions of dollars ... from all their illicit stuff: oil, looting, extortion,”

Who could have seen this coming? Week after the CEO ordered his mega-yacht and 6 months after Jim Cramer said "it was going higher," GoPro has just slashed Q4 revenue guidance by 15% (from $510.9mm to $435mm) and has addtionally decided to layoff 7% of the workforce. For now, GPRO is halted... but Ambarella is not (and is collapsing 6% after hours) leaving them down 65-80% since Cramer said "buy buy buy."

Earlier today BOK financial admitted that as a result of a major loan impairment on just one energy producer it would have to take a dramatic $22.5 million in credit losses, but that things are slowly going from great to not so great when it also admitted that "we continued to see credit grade migration and increased impairment in our energy portfolio. The combination of factors necessitated a higher level of provision expense."

Nope and Mange...

The similarities continue. Both saw an initial sharp 2-3 month fall from their peaks followed by a quarter or so of stability. The NASDAQ then started to fall sharply again and Chinese equities seem to have started a similar trend on a similar timeline....