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The US November Trade deficit printed at $42.4 billion, down from $44.6 billion in October and better than the $44.0 billion consensus expectation. However, instead of suggesting on overall improvement, the only reason the deficit improved is because as the BEA admitted, "exports decreased less than imports", in other words, both decreased. Specifically, imports fell 1.7% in Nov. to $224.59b from $228.36b in Oct, while exports fell 0.9% in Nov. to $182.21b from $183.78b in Oct. A key driver was another decline in petroleum imports which fell $262 million to a total of $10.7 billion courtesy of the drop in oil prices.

"In the same Gallup survey that listed 'dissatisfaction with government' as the top concern for each of the past two years, 'guns/Gun control' was considered 'the most important problem' by 2 percent of respondents, about the same who listed “lack of respect for each other” and pollution.'

Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.

• Today’s fixing was a big surprise, and impression is that upside risks to USD/CNY have grown
• PBOC’s actions are conflicting: there was suspected intervention yesterday and sentiment stabilized, but it set such a low fixing today
• Will help loosen monetary conditions; still, risk of capital outflows could increase concurrently
• Expect 5%-10% depreciation by end of the year, though this depends on the pace of PBOC’s intervention and health of macroeconomy

The former market leaders are all beginning to breakdown. Has the market top finally hit?

• Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
• Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
• Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
• North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
• Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
• Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)

Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.

Iceland refused to be blackmailed. Iceland refused to take on the extra debt (and debt slavery) that came with the blackmail. Iceland refused to touch its social programs. Iceland has the strongest economy in the Western world.

There is a populist idea of money printing. The idea is that banks can just print what they want, enriching themselves... does it really work this way?

Dr Strange Bomb...

See For Yourself ...

Default Rate Highest since 2009, US Distress Ratio Soars.

About 90 women have reported being robbed, threatened or sexually molested at the New Year's celebrations outside Cologne's cathedral by young, mostly drunk, men, police said on Tuesday.  The scale of the attacks has shocked Germany. About 1,000 drunk and aggressive young men were involved. City police chief Wolfgang Albers called it "a completely new dimension of crime" adding that "the men were of Arab or North African appearance." Cologne mayor Henriette Reker said the attacks were "monstrous" adding that "we cannot allow this to become a lawless area."

Evangelicals, Tea-partiers, Progressives, Libertarians, Ghettofied Blacks, Unionized Labor, and other groups will be tapped and lured by the career politicians in the two parties to receive their financial support and vote, in most instances without political voice… Our system of Presidentialism may have served us well in the past but its rigidity in the political process denies the multiple voices that need to be heard in a democracy, nor offers the required tools for political compromise.  Sadly... here we are, stepping into 2016 with the possible political prospect of having to elect as chief executive of this nation either a lady with questionable trust-credentials or a boisterous charlatan.

Update: North Korea has confirmed that it has "successfully tested a hydrogen bomb." The test was "an act of self-defense" against threats like the US.

A 5.1-magnitude earthquake detected near North Korea’s nuclear test site appears to have been artificial, according to South Korea’s meteorological service, raising the prospect the isolated regime tested a nuclear device. As Bloomberg reports, the "earthquake" follows North Korea’s threat in September that it is ready to use atomic weapons against the U.S. at any time and that its main nuclear facility was fully operational. The Pentagon is reportedly "looking into" the quake reports.