Archive

May 27th, 2016

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ISIS Commander Killed In Falluja Airstrikes As A Familiar Face Emerges





US-led coalition air and artillery strikes have killed 70 ISIS fighters in Fallujah, including the militants’ leader in the Iraqi city, a military spokesman said Friday. Baghdad-based Colonel Steve Warren said that over the last four days, 20 strikes in the besieged city had destroyed ISIS fighting positions and gun emplacements. “We’ve killed more than 70 enemy fighters, including Maher Al-Bilawi, who is the commander of ISIL forces in Fallujah."

 

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What Would Ludwig von Mises Do In Venezuela?





The crisis in Venezuela is the most modern illustration of the horrific consequences of socialism and the devastating reality of hyperinflation. What makes this disaster all the more infuriating is that it could have been avoided with a basic understanding of history. We’ve seen the disaster of socialism and interventionism in various forms play out across the world time and time again with similar results, and yet new generations of central planners — backed by ideologically aligned intellectuals — are consistently able to fool people into believing that “this time will be different.”

 

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Explaining Bernie-Conomics Using Two Beers





It's simple really...

 

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Yellen Says Rate Hikes Soon As Need More Ammo "In Case Of Shock" - Live Feed





*YELLEN: ECONOMY IS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
*YELLEN: WITH GAINS, HIKE IN COMING MONTHS MAY BE APPROPRIATE
*YELLEN: DON'T HAVE TYPICAL SCOPE TO CUT RATES IN CASE OF SHOCK

 

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BTFVIX?





With Goldman suggesting VIX should be in the upper teens based on 'fundamentals' and event risks galore on the horizon (FOMC, Brexit, Spain elections, US elections, etc.) Geneva Swiss Bank suggests it is time to BTFVIX...

 

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Hedge Fund Billionaire Slams Democracy, Says The "Tyranny Of The Majority Is An Unhealthy Development"





In his latest letter to investors, OakTree Capital's Howard Marks goes political (slamming Trump's tariffs and Bernie's minimum wage machinations), shedding some blinding light on the economic reality of America, the dismal failure (and increasing impotence) of central bankers, and the ongoing "tryanny of the majority" warning that if everyone wants to tax-the-rich, soon there will be no rich to tax. As he concludes, short-term fixes simply cannot create wealth out of thin air (see Venezuela), as Churchill once said "for a nation to try to tax [or stimulate or devalue] itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."

 

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Alibaba’s SEC Probe: What’s Missing From This Disclosure?





On 24-May-2016, Alibaba Group disclosed what appears to be an informal SEC investigation. This is the first time this matter has been disclosed. Details are scant, leaving the investor unable to adequately assess the risk it poses. Using the template of who/what/where/when/why, we will examine what is missing. Our conclusion is you are left with a risk that management views as material but you cannot analyze. We generally recommend avoiding such scenarios.

 

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This Week's Main News From The Oil Sector





For those who need a quick and easy recap of all the main events that took place in the oil and gas services sector, here it is courtesy of Credit Suisse's James Wicklung who present the various "things we've learned this week."

 

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Stocks, Bonds Slide As Hawkish Yellen Sends July Rate-Hike Odds To Record Highs





Following Yellen's uncharacteristicaly hawkish tone, the odds of a July rate-hike have shot higher - now higher than June or September have ever been - to record highs. This has sent short-term bond yields higher, the yield curve dramatically flatter, stocks lower, and gold down...

 

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Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed





It's looking increasingly likely that third time's the charm: this set of bubbles is the last one central banks can blow. And when markets free-fall and don't reflate into new bubbles, pension funds will expire, as they were fated to do the day central banks chose zero interest rates forever as their cure for a broken economic model.

 

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Death By A Theta Cuts





Implied volatility should remain structurally elevated into and through an eventual recession (and likely bear market) before subsiding once the next sustained recovery has begun. That is precisely why we have struggled with the idea that the high-volatility regime intact since last August may truncate at less than a year. If our reasoning is correct and volatility remains structurally elevated, it follows that the recent three-month cyclical trough, as the longest such period on record, is statistically unlikely to last much longer.

 

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Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Another Rate Hike On The Horizon: One Explanation





"It would seem to us that the equity outcome in the weighted average view is a lot less positive. There are few S&P 2500 optimists even at 2.5% growth but plenty of S&P 1600 or less pessimists on the negative scenario. Bottom line – one more and pretty much done is unlikely to be as risk positive as recent asset market prices action suggests."

 

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Crude Traders Shrug As Oil Rig Count Resumes Decline





Following last week's unchanged oil rig count - breaking a 21-week streak of declines - as the rig count inflected perfectly with lagged oil prices. However, despite a rise in lagged oil prices, the oil rig count declined 2 to 316 this week - new lows since Oct 2009. Total rig count dropped to 404 - a new record low. Crude traders appear to have left for the day as there was no visible reaction to this data.

 

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"I'm Going To Stick With This Right To The End" - French President Hollande Threatens Union Protesters





"We can't accept that there are unions that dictate the law. This is not a moment to endanger the French recovery. As head of state, I want us to go right to the end."

 

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G-7 Refuses To Warn Of "Global Economic Crisis" Over Fear "Sentiment Can Become Self-Fulfilling"





In order to press his individual agenda of preserving optionality to intervene in the FX market and push the Yen lower (using increasingly more desperate measures), Japan's Prime Minister had just one task in the latest G-7 meeting: to have the Group of Seven leaders warn of the risk of a global economic crisis in the final communique issued as the summit wrapped earlier today in Japan. He failed. The reason why: "the G-7 is obviously aware of the ‘announcement effect’ the official communique has. In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling.""

 
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