Archive

August 26th, 2016

Lots of Smoke Here, Hillary

Prediction: If Hillary Clinton wins, within a year of her inauguration, she will be under investigation by a special prosecutor on charges of political corruption, thereby continuing a family tradition.

Vice Chairman Of Lotte Hangs Himself Hours Before Criminal Probe

The past several years have seen a surprising spike in professional suicides, mostly confined to the banking sector in general and Deutsche Bank in particular. Overnight this tragic group expanded into multinational corporation sector, after one the top executives at South Korea's multination conglomerate Lotte Group was found dead on Friday, in what is a suspected suicide, in what police described was a "typical case of death by hanging."

Why The Fed Expects 2018 Rates To Be Between 0% And 4.5%

"The reason for the wide range is that the economy is frequently buffeted by shocks and thus rarely evolves as predicted.... What we do know, however, is that we want a policy toolkit that will allow us to respond to a wide range of possible conditions."

Goldman: "Yellen Remarks Point To Higher Odds Of September Hike", Market Disagrees

With pundits unable to decide if Yellen's speech was hawkish or dovish, we need a tiebreaker, and as always the best one is the bank that has spawned more central bankers than any other institution, Goldman Sachs. As such, according to the just released analysis of Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the Fed speech "raised the odds of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting," but he adds that "any action will depend on the result of next week's jobs report. "

"Hawkish" Yellen Speech Sparks Buying Spree In Everything (Except Dollars)

The US Dollar is being dumped after Yellen's apparently 'hawkish' speech as the market appears to have latched onto one sentence..."future policymakers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets." Stocks are up, gold is up, bonds are up, oil is up...

Consumer Confidence Slumps As Inflation Expectations Crash To All-Time Lows

The "disinflationary mindset" remains as UMIch-reported medium-term inflation expectations plunge back to record lows. Headline consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest since 2016 lows in April driven by drop in 'hope' from the flash print - stuck at lowest levels since 2014.

Iran Sets Condition Under Which It Would Join OPEC Oil Production Freeze

Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh made the most explicit statement on the topic, when he laid out the conditions under which Iran would be willing to "help other oil producers stabilize the world market."  It was a simple condition: Iran will cooperate as long as it is excluded from the freeze.