November 24th, 2014
Of the 15 sub-indices under the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey, only 4 improved in November with New orders tumbling, and wages, number of employees, and average workweek all sliding notably. So, with that in mind, thanks to a surge in 'hope'-based business activity outlook 6 months forward (from 13.3 to 18.3), the Dallas Fed printed 10.5 (against expectations of 9.0) and unchanged from October's 10.5. The number of employees shrank to its lowest in 6 months.
You cannot have the market drop 7% and then rally an even larger 10% in less than month based solely on a single non-voting Fed President’s comments and NOT be in a bubble.
A week after we reported that the head of the Ukraine central bank admitted in an unofficial, informal interview that Ukraine's gold is gone, all gone, moments ago the Central Bank revealed that, sure enough, the gold holdings in the civil war-torn country have tumbled, as a result of a decision in September to "increase the share of US dollars in a reserve basket", or in other words, to sell the gold. Just don't call it that: in fact, as of today we have a brand new buzzword for gold liquidations: "optimization of international reserves."
Why is Bitcoin dangerous and of little intrinsic value? Because my local Central Banker Told Me So! - OR - The lasting message from the highly Centralized, Centrally Planned, Central Banks of the World? "We think, so you don't have to!"
Brent Plunge To $60 If OPEC Fails To Cut, Junk Bond Rout, Default Cycle, "Profit Recession" To FollowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2014 10:11 -0500
While OPEC has been mostly irrelevant in the past 5 years as a result of Saudi Arabia's recurring cartel-busting moves, which have seen the oil exporter frequently align with the US instead of with its OPEC "peers", and thanks to central banks flooding the market with liquidity helping crude prices remain high regardless of where actual global spot or future demand was, this Thanksgiving traders will be periodically resurfacing from a Tryptophan coma and refreshing their favorite headline news service for updates from Vienna, where a failure by OPEC to implement a significant output cut could send oil prices could plunging to $60 a barrel according to Reuters citing "market players" say.
For any/all readers who retain the capacity for independent thought; it is universally acknowledged that the mainstream, Corporate media is little more than a propaganda megaphone. It broadcasts a single message, 24/7, with which the Old World Order brainwashes the masses in our Zombie societies.
It is understood that with the overwhelming financial resources at its disposal; the One Bank has been able to (literally) buy each-and-every mainstream media outlet across the Western world, with all of these media outlets controlled within a mere handful of its 147 corporate fronts. We understand that because of this media oligopoly that, conservatively speaking, 99% of what is spewed by the mainstream media is irredeemably tainted – and thus cannot be relied upon.
On the heels of the biggest miss on record for US Manufacturing PMI (which corresponded un-decoupling-ly with disappointing European and Chinese Manufacturing PMIs), Markit's Services PMI printed 56.3, missing 57.3 expectations and notably down from October's 57.1 to 7 month lows. As Markit notes, the index has now pointed to softer growth of business activity in each of the past five months, to signal a sustained loss of momentum since the post-crisis peak seen in June. What is even more worrying... Markit points out that the economic upturn has lost considerable momentum, and with extreme weather hitting parts of the country, growth could slow even further.
It appears some folks might be scapegoated... As NY Times reports, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is stepping down, under presssure. President Obama made the decision to ask his defense secretary — the sole Republican on his national security team — to step down last Friday, as a recognition that the threat from the Islamic State would require a different kind of skills than those that Mr. Hagel has, and that his team has struggled to stay ahead of an onslaught of global crises.
The Mystery Of America's "Schrodinger" Middle Class, Which Is Either Thriving Or About To Go ExtinctSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2014 09:05 -0500
On one hand, the US middle class has rarely if ever had it worse. At least, if one actually dares to venture into this thing called the real world, and/or believes the NYT's report: "Falling Wages at Factories Squeeze the Middle Class." In short, it says that America's manufacturing sector, and thus middle class, is being obliterated: "A new study by the National Employment Law Project, to be released on Friday, reveals that many factory jobs nowadays pay far less than what workers in almost identical positions earned in the past. And then, paradoxically, at almost the same time, there's this from Bloomberg: "Lower-wage workers saw bigger pay gains over the past year than the highest earners, reversing the trend from earlier stages of the recovery." In short: the state of the US middle class is truly in the eyes of the beholder.
As the debate regarding whether or not Switzerland should keep the bulk of its gold reserves at home on Swiss soil reaches it's climax - the referendum takes place on Sunday - it is telling that the Dutch announced on Friday that they have just secretly repatriated 122 tonnes of their sovereign gold reserves from New York back to Amsterdam.
In what is hardly a surprising outcome, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear talks have decided it best for all to extend (and pretend) the discussion for another 7 months:
*IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS EXTENDED UNTIL JULY 1, OFFICIALS SAY
Diplomatic teams will reconvene in December and the US State Department is proclaiming "good progress" in a brief statement. 7 more months of sanctions, a call with Putin today, and OPEC later in the week... one wonders if any of this will be relevant in 7 months. Additionally, it seems beggars can be choosers as P5+1 says Iran can get $700 million per month in frozen assets back...
Goosing stocks ever higher will eventually push wealth inequality to the point that it unleashes social instability.
- Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
- PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
- Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
- UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
- US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
- Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
- Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
- How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
- The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)
Another day, another case of central banks, not one but two this time, dictating "price" action.