Archive

We have reduced our estimate of Q4 real GDP growth by one full percentage point to 0.5%, and this still might be too high in light of what could be much larger inventory liquidation than what we have assumed.

"It is time to accept that what we have done has worked brilliantly for twenty years but does not work anymore and move on. We are confident our process will eventually work again – for the laws of economics will never be repealed – but for now they are suspended and may be for some time; an indefinite period involving indeterminate levels of risk during which we think it would be wrong for us to be the stewards of your money."

Look out Stefan Ingves, the 2 and 20 crowd smells blood: "The market seems eager to challenge the Riksbank and there are rumors that many foreign hedge funds are long kronor and see a weakening of the krona after a possible intervention as a good buying opportunity.”

Despite the blustering propaganda from CNBC's Phil LeBeau, it appears the Auto-sales (and massive inventory build) party is over in America. December US domestic auto sales SAAR printed 13.46 mm - the lowest in 6 months (missing expectations of 14.15mm by the most since November 2008). With non-revolving credit growth slowing in December, and inventories at record highs, the wheels just fell off the credit-fueled auto 'recovery'.

A few weeks ago Margot Wallström, the Swedish foreign minister, dared to denounce the subjugation of women in Saudi Arabia. Wallström went on to condemn the Saudi courts for their "medieval methods" and their "cruel attempt to silence modern forms of expression." The backlash was fast and furious: Saudi Arabia withdrew its ambassador and stopped issuing visas to Swedish businessmen, and The GCC condemned her "unacceptable interference in the internal affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," proclaiming they wouldn’t bet against anti-Swedish riots following soon. Yet there is no "Wallström affair." Outside Sweden, the western media has barely covered the story.

"The United States should do everything possible to avoid choosing sides in an intensifying proxy war between the dominant Shiite and Sunni powers in the Middle East. Though history tells us we should tilt toward Saudi Arabia, our old ally, if we look toward the future, Iran is the more logical partner. The reasons are simple: Iran’s security interests are closer to ours than Saudi Arabia’s are."

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the hollowing out of democracy globally. Democracy is now a travesty of a mockery of a sham, a hollow shell of PR and propaganda designed to confuse and distract the citizenry--the citizenry that is being crushed beneath the authoritarian rule that has expanded to fill the hollow shell of formal democracy.

Priorities...

It only takes a moment for the observant viewer to ascertain the state of each of these two realities. There is no Schrodinger's Cat in Dennis' world.

Moments ago, according to Alriyadh.com, a bus belonging to Saudi Aramco was torched in a "terrorist assault" by “four armed rioters” in the country's unrest-filled Qatif region.

It's not China, stupid... It's The Fed. "What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect... and an uncomfortable digestive period is likely now." Simply put Fisher concludes, there can't be much more accomodation, "The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left."

WTI Crude prices just broke back to a $35 handle for the first time since mid-December as the combination of un-growth, Saudi price cuts, a rancorous OPEC, and production increases weigh on the world's most important commodity. At the same time, oil producers are getting hit with the Canadian Dollar plunging above 1.4000 to its lowest since 2003...

After getting hammered on the first trading day of 2016, what can we expect from the stock market?

Fed policymakers seem to be of the view that the almost zero federal funds rate and their massive monetary pumping has cured the economy, which now seems to be approaching a path of stable economic growth and price stability, so it is held. Yet, manipulations by the Fed could not bring the economy onto a path of stability and prosperity but, on the contrary, set in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. This raises the likelihood that the elimination of bubbles as a result of a tighter stance while good in the long-term for wealth generators is likely to trigger a severe economic slump in the near to medium term.