Archive

May 5th, 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

Bunds & Treasuries Test Key Technical Levels





That escalated quickly...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

US Non-Manufacturing Rises (ISM) & Falls (PMI) In April As Export Orders Collapse





The hope-strewn bounce in Services PMI over the last 3 months (despite collapsing macro data) has ended. Markit Services PMI dropped in April to 57.4, weakening notably from preliminary expectations of 57.8. Markit remains convinced that their survey implies 3% GDP growth and all is well in the world. ISM Services however smashed expectations, printing 57.8 vs 56.2, its highest since November - despite a plunge in new export orders into contraction.

 

EconMatters's picture

Einhorn Slams Mother Frackers





Einhorn just found his next target: U.S. onshore E&Ps or the oil fracking companies.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Energy Stocks Hit 6-Month High as Valuations Spike To 1999 Peaks





Hope springs eternal. The S&P Energy sector is surging once again this morning as crude prices top $60 with stocks now back at Nov 2014 levels (up 12% in the last month). What most do not realize as they blindly follow the momentum, excited that 'something is working' is that the valuations - based on analysts' forward earnings projections - have only been marginally higher than this once... right at the peak in 1999. The S&P Energy sector trades at a 28x Fwd P/E!

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Yemen Rebels Shell Saudi Arabian City, Casualties Reported; Saudis Vow Retaliation





After the Saudis allegedly halted their air campaign against Yemen's Houthi rebels on April 21 (allegedly because it promptly resumed the very next day to almost no public announcement), the Yemen civil war and the "skirmishes" by Houthi rebels along the border with the world's biggest oil exporter were quickly forgotten. Until this morning, when the Saudi press and social media has been overrun with reports that the Saudi city of Najran was shelled by Houthi mortars, an attack which Saudi advisor to the armed forces Ahmed Asiri said "will not pass without a response".

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Myth Or Reality: "Sell In May"





There is little advantage to be gained by being aggressively allocated during the summer months. However, in reality, there are few individuals that can maintain a strict discipline of only investing during seasonally strong periods consistently. Also, time frames of when you start and when you need your capital for retirement make HUGE differences in actual performance. However, a willful disregard of "risk" will inherently lead to the destruction of the two most precious and finite assets that all investors possess – capital and time.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

ISIS Warns Of "Harsher And Worse" US Attacks After Claiming Responsibility For Botched Texas Shooting





As we first reported on Monday, ISIS has indeed claimed responsibility for the attack on a security guard in Garland, Texas on Sunday evening. In a statement, the group warns of further attacks that it promises will be "worse and more bitter" and may be "just around the corner." 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Worst Ever US Trade Deficit Excluding Crude Hints At Upcoming QE4





Remember that in a beggar thy neighbor world, where currency warfare has once again broken out between the US, Europe and Japan, for every winner there is a loser. In this case, the loser is the one country that has decided that a strong currency is a great thing for its economy (if only for the time being): that would be the US. Why is this relevant? Because as the chart below shows, US trade excluding Petroleum, just crashed to $43.7 billion, the worst print in the history of the series, suggesting that portrayals of the US as a resurgent export powerhouse are completely erroneous, and that instead the US is as big a net importer of goods and services (and soon to be oil) as ever.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

US Trade Deficit Soars To Worst Since Financial Crisis; Will Push Q1 GDP Negative





After shrinking notably in Feb, March's US Trade deficit exploded. Against expectations of a $41.7bn deficit, the US generated a $51.4bn deficit - the worst since Oct 2008 and the biggest miss on record. Exports rose just $1.6bn while imports soared $17.1bn with the goods deficit with China soaring from $27.3bn to $37.8bn in March. Ironically, just as the "harsh winter" was found to lead to a GDP boost due to a surge in utility spending, so the West Coast port strike which was blamed for the GDP drop, was actually benefiting the US economy as it lead to a plunge in imports. In March, however, the pipeline was cleared, and US imports from China soared by over $10 billion to $38 billion.  End result: prepare for upcoming Q1 GDP downgrades into negative territory.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

WTI Crude Tops $60 (5 Month Highs) After Saudi's "Leave It To Allah" Comments





WTI Crude is now up 43% from its mid-March lows (at $42), topping $60 for the first time since early December. This is a 25% retracement of the June to March drop. Despite near-record US production (rose last week WoW), record Saudi production, slowing global economies, and expectations that higher prices will bring a flood of new supply as cash-starved frackers start pumping again; it appears the squeeze combined with Middle East tensions is driving the resurgence (for now). Perhaps everyone should listen to Influential Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Al-Naimi, who said Tuesday that "no one can set the price of oil - it's up to Allah." It seems Allah wants higher gas prices.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: May 5





  • Fed's Yellen says met firm at heart of leak probes (Reuters)
  • EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton Takes Hit in WSJ Poll, but Holds Edge Over GOP Rivals (WSJ)
  • China stocks slump on tighter margin rules, IPOs; Hong Kong down (Reuters)
  • McDonald’s Chief Promises Turnaround in a Restructuring (NYT)
  • German Bond Market Selloff Continues (WSJ)
  • Vanguard overtakes Pimco’s Total Return following outflows in wake of Bill Gross’s departure (WSJ)
  • EU Demands Concessions as Greece Hurtles Toward Deadlines (BBG)
  • Junk Bonds Are The New Haven Assets (BBG)
 

Tyler Durden's picture

Futures, Treasurys Flat After Chinese Stock Bubble "Incident"; Bunds Stage Feeble Rebound





If yesterday's laughable lack of volume (helped by the closure of Japan and the UK) coupled with hopes that the end of the buyback blackout period was enough to send stocks surging if only to end with a whimper below all time highs despite what is now looking like three consecutive quarters of Y/Y EPS declines according to Factset, today's ramp will be more difficult for the NY Fed and Citadel to engineer, not least of all due to the headwind of the overnight "incident" by China's stock bubble which saw the Shanghai Composite tumble by 4%, the most since January.

 

GoldCore's picture

U.S. Fears a European “Lehman Brothers”





Gillian Tett, markets and finance commentator and an Assistant Editor and former U.S. Managing Editor of the Financial Times, wrote an important and little noticed article last week questioning complacency on the part of European policy makers regarding a Greek default and potential exit or ‘Grexit’. Tett argues that a Greek failure would lead, as Lehman’s did to “wider policy uncertainty: when Lehman failed, the entire paradigm for finance suddenly seemed unpredictable”.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

China Stocks Tumble Most In 4 Months; Australia Cuts Rates To Record Low





Yesterday, when we heard that China brokers may impose tighter margin requirements to contain what is now a laughable stock bubble we said that tonight's Shanghai session could get exciting: "China may get exciting: Some China Brokers Raise Margin Trading Requirement: Sec. News" It did: overnight the Shanghai Composite tumbled by 4.1% to under 4300, the biggest one day drop since January 19.

 

Pivotfarm's picture

6 Reasons Why Britain is Ready to Hang Itself





The British are ready to hang themselves yet again, with their General Election on Thursday 7th May 2015.

 
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