Bunds were slammed when Reuters reported that the ECB will likely extend its bond purchases beyond March but is considering sending a formal signal after its policy meeting next Thursday that the program will eventually end. Is Europe about to unleash another Taper Tantrum?
Fear has gripped the bullion market, for one is deemed to be guilty until proven otherwise. People with perfectly legal cash are afraid of cameras recording their purchases and having to pay outrageous bribes. After an adjustment period people will buy more — not less — gold. For now, the gold market has gone mostly underground with the gold price hovering around US$1,700 per ounce. Did Modi want to boost the informal economy?
China’s central bank will limit the amount of renminbi that Chinese companies and individuals can remit outside the country, imposing a cap for the first time in more than two decades to stem the yuan’s outflow as the currency plumbs daily lows.
After soaring over 15% in the post-Trump period, Caterpillar shares are halted this morning ahead of a presentation at Credit Suisse Annual Industrial Conference. The presentation shows cost cuts, layoffs, and admits that 2017 consensus estimates are "too optimistic."
"...having willingly conspired to make Hillary president. They will now try to vindicate themselves by trashing Trump at every possible chance. They will now fuel the civil divide and help lay the foundation for the collapse of the United States itself..."
“We hope to unite our forces with the United States in the fight against the real threat, not the fictional one – international terrorism,” he said. The president also emphasized the need “to strengthen non-proliferation regimes,” noting that “attempts to upset the strategic balance are extremely dangerous and could lead to a global catastrophe.”
The relentless dollar rally continues to slam the Turkish lira, which has been printing fresh all time lows on a daily basis, and today has been no exception, tumbling over 1.8%, and pushing the USDTRY to an all time high above 3.50.
Extending October's bounce, Markit's US Manufacturing PMI for November jumped to its highest since March 2015 with "signs of buoyant business conditions in the US manufacturing sector." ISM Manufacturing also rose to its highest since Feb 2015 and while overall orders rose, we note that the USD strength may be evident as export orders dropped and employment slowed.
In the end, UTC agreed to retain approximately 800 manufacturing jobs at the Indiana plant that had been slated to move to Mexico, as well as another 300 engineering and headquarters jobs. In return, the company will get roughly $700,000 a year for a period of years in state tax incentives.
Following the worst month for risk-parity funds since 2015, we suspect month-end redemptions are driving both stocks and bonds (4x levered on average) lower out of the gate in November. Extending yesterday's losses, US Treasury yields are explding higher once again (long-end underperforming) following China's bond market's biggest yield spike in years overnight.
Following OPEC's agreement to cut prodiction for the first time in 8 years, front-end prices have spiked (above $50) but perhaps more notable is the unusual 'stability' in the crude curve around $54 from July 2017 to Nov 2019. For the first time since October 2014, the belly of the crude curve is in backwardation (far-months cheaper than near-months).