• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Archive

May 27th, 2016

Tyler Durden's picture

Death By A Theta Cuts





Implied volatility should remain structurally elevated into and through an eventual recession (and likely bear market) before subsiding once the next sustained recovery has begun. That is precisely why we have struggled with the idea that the high-volatility regime intact since last August may truncate at less than a year. If our reasoning is correct and volatility remains structurally elevated, it follows that the recent three-month cyclical trough, as the longest such period on record, is statistically unlikely to last much longer.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Why Stocks Keep Rising Despite Another Rate Hike On The Horizon: One Explanation





"It would seem to us that the equity outcome in the weighted average view is a lot less positive. There are few S&P 2500 optimists even at 2.5% growth but plenty of S&P 1600 or less pessimists on the negative scenario. Bottom line – one more and pretty much done is unlikely to be as risk positive as recent asset market prices action suggests."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Traders Shrug As Oil Rig Count Resumes Decline





Following last week's unchanged oil rig count - breaking a 21-week streak of declines - as the rig count inflected perfectly with lagged oil prices. However, despite a rise in lagged oil prices, the oil rig count declined 2 to 316 this week - new lows since Oct 2009. Total rig count dropped to 404 - a new record low. Crude traders appear to have left for the day as there was no visible reaction to this data.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"I'm Going To Stick With This Right To The End" - French President Hollande Threatens Union Protesters





"We can't accept that there are unions that dictate the law. This is not a moment to endanger the French recovery. As head of state, I want us to go right to the end."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

G-7 Refuses To Warn Of "Global Economic Crisis" Over Fear "Sentiment Can Become Self-Fulfilling"





In order to press his individual agenda of preserving optionality to intervene in the FX market and push the Yen lower (using increasingly more desperate measures), Japan's Prime Minister had just one task in the latest G-7 meeting: to have the Group of Seven leaders warn of the risk of a global economic crisis in the final communique issued as the summit wrapped earlier today in Japan. He failed. The reason why: "the G-7 is obviously aware of the ‘announcement effect’ the official communique has. In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling.""

 

Tyler Durden's picture

"The Great White Hope"





“Angry white male” is now an acceptable slur in culture and politics. So it is that people of that derided ethnicity, race, and gender see in Donald Trump someone who unapologetically berates and mocks the elites who have dispossessed them, and who despise them. Is it any surprise that militant anti-government groups attract white males? Is it so surprising that the Donald today, like Jess Willard a century ago, is seen by millions as “The Great White Hope”?

 

EconMatters's picture

The Utopian Central Bank Financial Market (Video)





Central Banks Need to either go all the way with Policy Goals, or get out of financial asset purchases altogether.

 

RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk weekly wrap 27th May 2016





 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

A Few Questions To Those Who Slam Gold





The media trashes Gold all the time... but they never explain why.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Losing Ground In Flyover America, Part 2





There has never been a more destructive central banking policy than the Fed’s current maniacal quest to stimulate more inflation and more debt. That’s what is killing real wages and economic vitality in flyover America - even as it showers prodigious windfalls of unearned wealth on Wall Street and the bicoastal elites who draft on the nation’s vastly inflated finances. Indeed, Fed policy has had a double whammy effect on the flyover zone economy. It drove inflation up when down was needed; and its strip-mined capital from American business when increased capital investment was of the essence.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

UMich Consumer Confidence Fades From Early May Exuberance, Inflation Expectations Slump To Record Lows





Having spiked magnificently (and surprisingly) to 11-month highs (from 7-month lows) with May's preliminary print at 95.8 (driven by a massive spike in 'hope'), today's final print of 94.7 (still an 11-month high) dropped from preliminary and missed forecasts. Expectations faded notably from 87.5 prelim to 84.9 final - still an 11-month high for 'hope'. However, despite the hype in the hope, short- and long-term inflation expectations tumbled with 5-10Y outlook now at record lows.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Austria Launches Probe Into Alleged Presidential Election Postal Vote Fraud





Five Austrian voting districts are being investigated in Austria over postal vote irregularities in the close-run presidential election, the interior minister has announced. Allegations of fraud arose from the far-right Freedom party of defeated candidate Norbert Hofer, after the Green candidate Alexander Van der Bellen just scrapped ahead with 31,000 votes when the postal ballot was counted.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Market Priced For A Summer Rate-Hike?





Last November, capital markets were discounting a rate hike five months later, based on Fed Funds futures. Same story today. Last November, the S&P 500 was trading near 2100. Same story today. Last November, VIX levels were around 14. Same story today. Last November, instead of waiting five months, the Fed hiked rates one month later; the S&P dropped by 10% over the next eight weeks... And as BofAML's Savita Subramanian warns, hiking during a profits recession usually hasn't ended well.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Stocks Shrug As USDJPY, Crude, PMs Slide After Disappointing GDP Print





Stocks appear to have left early for the long weekend but USDJPY, Crude, and precious metals are sliding after the disappointing GDP print.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Consequences Of $50 Oil





If U.S. shale stays competitive, it could trigger another round of production increases from Saudi Arabia, which is determined to do its utmost to hold on to market share even as it boasts of long-term plans to build an “oil-less” economy by 2030. The Saudi bottom line has been ravaged by years of low prices, generating huge budget deficits and debts to contractors (which the Saudi government will attempt to cover through IOUs). Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia remains uniquely positioned to weather such storms; should the price fall again, it is better-placed to retain market share than the high-cost producers in the U.S. and elsewhere.

 
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