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Bank Of International Settlements Sees US Debt/GDP At Over 400% By 2040
It's one thing to hear fringe bloggers raving breathlessly against the collision course that the US economy is on. It is something else to see the Bank of International Settlements call for the baseline projection for US debt/GDP to hit over 400% by 2040. And this excludes the bankrupt GSEs, bankrupt Social Security, and the soon to be bankrupt Medicare. In a must read report, the BIS (of the central bankers' central bank) provides the much needed segue to the work of Reinhart and Rogoff, and in not so many words confirms that the entire developed world is now bankrupt on a discounted basis. With Debt/GDP ratios for virtually everyone expected to jump to over 400% in the bank's baseline scenario, it is no surprise why the Dow may well hit 1 quadrillion on nothing but Weimar and Zimbabwean ponzification, before it crashes instantaneously to zero. We exaggerate about the quadrillion, we do not exaggerate about the sovereign default. The current and previous administrations have doomed this country, just as all other administrations of the developed world have done the same, in order to bail out the banking system, in the greatest fatally flawed private-public risk transfer experiment ever attempted. Those who will walk out of it with virtually infinite wealth are about 0.1% of the US population (the same people who tell you now that all is well, and that their bonuses are fully justified). Those who won't, and will end up doing bad things to the aforementioned cohort, is everyone else. And the "everyone else" is getting angrier by the day, as they realize just how massive the wealth transfer scam truly is... if only they could tear themselves away from the iCrap, watching Tiger Woods' nonsensical Nike ads, or glower in schadenfreude as Simon Cowell rips another wanna be singer from head to toe.
Some key snippets from the BIS report:
Should we be concerned about high and sharply rising public debts? Several advanced economies have experienced higher levels of public debt than we see today. In the aftermath of World War II, for example, government debts in excess of 100% of GDP were common. And none of these led to default. In more recent times, Japan has been living with a public debt ratio of over 150% without any adverse effect on its cost. So it is possible that investors will continue to put strong faith in industrial countries’ ability to repay, and that worries about excessive public debts are exaggerated. Indeed, with only a few exceptions, during the crisis, nominal government bond yields have fallen and remained low. So far, at least, investors have continued to view government bonds as relatively safe.
But bond traders are notoriously short-sighted, assuming they can get out before the storm hits: their time horizons are days or weeks, not years or decades. We take a longer and less benign view of current developments, arguing that the aftermath of the financial crisis is poised to bring a simmering fiscal problem in industrial economies to boiling point. In the face of rapidly ageing populations, for many countries the path of pre-crisis future revenues was insufficient to finance promised expenditure.
There is no need to repeat just how horrendous the fiscal deficit picture is. Yet we will:
Overall fiscal balances have been deteriorating sharply – by 20–30 percentage points of GDP in just three years. And, unless action is taken almost immediately, there is little hope that these deficits will decline significantly in 2011. Even more worrying is the fact that most of the projected deficits are structural rather than cyclical in nature. So, in the absence of immediate corrective action, we can expect these deficits to persist even during the cyclical recovery.
Based on a very comprehensive data set, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009a) report that three years after a typical banking crisis the absolute level of public debt is on average about 86% higher than prior to the crisis. In those countries where the crisis was most severe, debt almost trebled. This time around, several countries are beyond this historical average: Ireland with increases in public debt of 98% between 2007 and 2009; and the United Kingdom with projected rises of 111% by 2011. Meanwhile, the United States and Spain – with projected increases of 75% and 78%, respectively, by 2011 – are not far behind.
We doubt that the current crisis will be typical in its impact on deficits and debt. The reason is that, in many countries, employment and growth are unlikely to return to their pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable future.8 As a result, unemployment and other benefits will need to be paid for several years, and high levels of public investment might also have to be maintained
It also bears repeating that recently the Bank of England estimated that the total loss in output as a result of the banking crisis could be large as $200 trillion. That's a lot of money.
Next, the BIS covers a favorite topic of ours, which continues to get virtually no coverage in the mainstream media - the increasingly problematic demographic shift, as all those deferred retirement obligations will finally need to start getting paid out.
More worryingly, the current expansionary fiscal policy has coincided with rising, and largely unfunded, age-related spending (pension and health care costs). Driven by the countries’ demographic profiles, the ratio of old-age population to working-age population is projected to rise sharply. Interestingly, this rise is concentrated in countries such as Japan, Spain, Italy and Greece, which are already laden with relatively high debts (Graph 2, left-hand panel). Added to the effects of population ageing is the problem posed by rising per capita health care costs.
This leads us to the obvious conclusion that any assessment of the government fiscal situation based on a short-term perspective is incomplete and at best misleading. A key question is to what extent such accrued liabilities should be reflected in debt estimates. Concerns about both fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity demand that the accumulated net discounted value of all future revenues and expenditure commitments scheduled in current laws be added to the current debt stock. Currently, however, there is no unique source providing such estimates. And uncertainty about future policy, demography and productivity growth raises issues about how this information should be presented and used (see eg Auerbach (2008) for a discussion).
That said, existing studies report that the magnitude of the long-term fiscal imbalance – the present value of unfunded liabilities arising from ageing – is very large. Hauner et al (2007) estimate the change in the primary balance required to equate the net present discounted value of all future revenues and non-interest expenditures to the debt levels prevailing at the end of 2005 for seven major industrial countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States). The authors report that in order for these countries to pay off all their financial liabilities, they would require an average improvement in their budget balance excluding interest payments of 4.5% of GDP. For the United States and Japan, the estimate is 6.9% and 6.2%, respectively.
The persistent stickiness of low interest rates is another troubling point, and the BIS discusses this as well.
So far, the build-up of public debt in industrial countries has taken place against the backdrop of an exceedingly low interest rate environment. Despite low inflation, the real interest rate (in effective terms) at which governments are able to finance their deficits and roll over outstanding debt obligations has been falling since the late 1990s, reaching almost zero in some countries in the wake of the monetary policy response to the financial crisis (Graph 3, left-hand panel). However, as the graph reveals, the situation is changing quickly even without a change in monetary policy-controlled interest rates. Real borrowing rates rose through 2009, and are poised to continue increasing with the reversal of the current zero interest rate policy. Added to this is the fact that the crisis is likely to reduce the potential output growth rate for some time to come (Cecchetti and Zhu (2009)).
The right-hand panel of Graph 3 is indicative of the severity of the problems that governments face. It plots a measure of the difference between the real interest rate and real growth on the horizontal axis and the ratio of the primary surplus to total debt on the vertical axis. The higher the differential between the real interest rate and potential output growth, the larger the required structural primary surplus as a proportion of the previous-period debt level needed to maintain a stable debt/GDP ratio. Turning to the graph, for debt/GDP to remain stable, a country must be above the 45-degree line on the graph (which appears relatively flat due to the differences in the horizontal and vertical scale). The data show that the current fiscal policy is unsustainable in every country in the graph. Drastic improvements in the structural primary balance will be necessary to prevent debt ratios from exploding in future.
And if the last chart was not enough to stop you dead in your tracks, the next one is the piece de resistance.
Presented without commentary:
Well, one little comment - essentially at this point the entire world is bankrupt. Yet the bankers will keep on trending the market higher and higher on ever declining volumes, to perpetuate the illusion that things are getting better. If that means that GETCO will quote a market of 1,000,000 x 1,000,000,000 for 2 shares of SPY at some point in the future, we would not be surprised. It is merely an artifice for the financial kleptocrats to cash out from as high a point as possible as they try to sucker ever greater numbers of people into the parabolic phase of the ponzi. Yet the numbers don't lie. No matter what Obama does, no matter how he spins the CBO data, or how much healthcare reform is presented as revenue generating, the final outcome is now certain, and it involves the chain bankruptcies of every developed nation. And since the developed world is merely a cheap source of commodities and processed products for the developed world, the BRICs of the world will be next.
Previously, few dared to discuss the ponzi openly. With the BIS now getting into the fray, the issue of sovereign insolvency is now front and center. Of course, few will dare to forecast when the great unravelling will begin. And neither will we, suffice to say that as more and more people read disclosure such as the above, coming from the most legitimate of financial institutions, the more people will awake to the true cataclysm that has now enveloped Western society, which if the Roman empire was any indication, is in last days. Except unlike the Roman case study, the barbarians are not at the gate: they represent 90% of the population of America itself and are already inside the gate. And they are getting angrier with each passing day.
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The report originally picked the year 2080 for the projections. But then someone got all giddy and frisky and changed it to 2040, just to shake things up and -- you know -- create an environment for serious action. Yeah.
Big playerz over there at BIS. Way out on a limb with this one.
While the article was interesting, 2040 is way too far out to capture the imagination and move me to action. I am really more worried about the next week, month, year and about what's going to happen if they do not reinstate my neighbors' unemployment checks.
They know that's how you feel. This report is trying to get you to think past all that and way down the road to a time when -- well -- you are already likely dead and cannot create any problems.
And no, I'm not joking. No sarc tag here. That's what they are trying to do.
I *completely* agree with cougar_w, that the "thirty-year timeline" is merely to "soften the blow" of this news (e.g., it's too far away to be considered), PLUS to provide COVER for when the system falls in the next twenty-four months: Hey, we printed a report, you elected officials didn't fix your deficits, so it's your fault, not the bankers!
Same thing with Social Security -- we were good until 2036, then 2016, and then all of a sudden, whoops! The Treasury had to start issuing bonds to cover Social Security monthly checks in 2009.
[EDIT] You'll note that this is *exactly* what Bernanke has been doing the last couple times before Congress -- he knows The End Is Near, and is warning Congress to fix its deficits (merely to provide cover for himself when it turns out the Fed goes "toes-up").
It says "don't bother saving for the future, because it's all going to fall apart anyways". It seems to me that this is a backhanded way to urge people to spend.
In reality, it will drive people to look for dollar alternatives. Sadly, most will find the stock market, but an increasing number of people are finding PMs.
Just to be devil's advocate, but when have any long-term forecasts been right?
It would take an awfully big hand to move the rudder.
glad i don't have kids
Ever wonder how Noah felt before the rain?
Exactly.
Although I finally got through to my spouse (things are looking up) so my Kassandra impression got through to someone anyway! :-)
"God better send a damn flood! 40 years building this damn boat and my wife nagging me...'Noah, why are you building a boat out in the forest? Boats are for water! My mother was right you are an idiot. I should have marred Methuselah.' I need my rain here God!".
Only I think I might have a more modern spin on it. Praying for rain, praying for tidal waves. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo
Articles like this remind me of the architects which always seem to nurture the view of a positive future via depicting surreal futuristic buildings and thus appealing to humanity' subconscious survival instinct and the lack of ability for the majority of individuals to project into the future. Same goes for the financial analysts which try to envision a future which will be both beneficial and less painful for the everyday man and woman than the present is. The only problem with those views is that it completely disregards thousands if not millions of small and unforeseeable obstacles which will make the said future much harder to actualize. But in the short therm the aforementioned examples lull us into an optimistic slumber and shut down more instinctual and projective side of our cogito. Needles to say the predictions expressed in this analysis are unsustainable, and even-though some form of political structure will be in place of the current USA i fear it will not be the USA. More realistic future view on the current affairs is that it will be conducted in the manner of post-USSR CIS.
That is all; continue the dog and pony show.
"...envision a future which will be both beneficial and less painful..."
Humanity, like everything else, has a wave state (future potentiality). Up down, up down. Cyclical.
The root of the issue is a virtual exponential growth scheme (economics), is being imposed by manipulators on a life system that seeks a cyclical stasis. A parabola cannot exist in a wave system. Crash, Boom; is the result.
Humanity's monetary policy must breathe in, and breathe out; in ever an ever rebalancing stasis. Humanity's monetary policy must be governed by Natural law.
What we have now is cancerous. The cancer is killing us. The bankers, and the notion of private money creation, is killing us.
A debt scheme, a ponzi scheme, a scam,.... What words must I use?
Yeast growth on a petri dish is not a viable economic model for success.
We cannot allow "bankers" to obstruct the flow of money. The reason the debt system expands, and must expand, is because there is never enough money in the system to satisfy all debts.... Why? Because the people responsible for monetary policy and creation, the fucking Fed/owners there of, take a percentage cut right off the top. The system cannot achieve stasis, supply and demand cannot find equilibrium. 100% of the money always seeking 102% that cannot be achieved without more loans. Boom Bust is built in.
We must own the money machine. The 2% of the 100% chasing 102%, must be put back into the society as public good not speculated or vampired away, so that 102% satisfaction can be found on return, or default/boom/bust/bubbles is inherent. Why is this not clear? The Fed must die.
Basically with you, with one question: so the Fed dies. What next?
Wow, all the bad news already then I just remembered FDIC Friday is back on tonight!
Put me down for 6 tonight;
4 domestic (The usual 2 from Georgia) and let me have 2 from Puerto Rico.
Lets just see how potential buyers of the banks jump to but now that the FDIC lowered its loss exposure to 85% of open bets.
No sooner typed and they are coming in...
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Federal bank regulators announced the closing Friday of Beach First National Bank of Myrtle Beach, S.C. The bank is the 42nd U.S. lender to fail this year and the first South Carolina bank failure in more than a decade.
a paltry 130 million... (who talks in millions anymore), but they found a buyer! sucker to buy the "assets".
If anything this completely understates the problem. If a corporation used the accounting rules that the US government uses it would be considered fraud. However, the US government can go ahead and simply refuse to count the unfunded liabilities as part of their debt. 400% of GDP by 2040? Way past that already. Unfunded liabilities - Social Security - $14.2 trillion, Prescription drug liability - $18.8 trillion, Medicare - $75 trillion - total - $108 trillion.
Let's see, $108 trillion / $14 trillion (US GDP - another bullshit number) = 7.7
Debt to GDP ratio = 770%
Yes!
Thanks for putting the numbers up -- I knew they were up there, but had no idea how high.
So.... how about a spitball estimate of the total outstanding debts and unfunded liabilities of the entire world
divided by the total worldwide GNPs. (Yes I know China's is bogus)
Anybody?
Chris, unfunded liabilities are fairytales- they are not enen considered here . But I would agree the GDP is bullshit number that includes stimulus. Real GDP would not include government spending. When Bernanke mentioned the green shoots he forgot to mention the shoots were under 20 feet under.. When the spender in chief said we were turning the corner he must have meant we are going down. Shadow stats is warning hard about M3 money crashing says the double dip is all but assured.
China will own the world.
... bought with their US dollar reserves.
See the problem? We and they are in the same ship!
One hangs, all hang! And so the show goes on ...
That's ONE thing they could use.
Others include the new reserve currency known as the Yuan, the other new reserve currency known as gold, or simply their excess production.
China will.
China has bubble and hungry people...will be affected by capital requirements as well.
1 in 9 Americans is on food stamps .....
Nuff said ...
In line with that, when you think about it the Chinese are subsidising Americans eating. That's a mental trip.
And to make matters worse, JPM is in charge of the allocation! And they have offshored the work to India. Arrrrgh!
you cant eat food stamps lol
No mention that the Yuan closed at a 20 month high Thursday vs the Taiwan Dollar??
That was all I heard from my broker in Taiwan..China is yielding to the monetizing nations requests, just not admitting it yet.
Are they worried about the world markets or their own bubble??
Whitney Houston said it. Crack is whack.
I'll keep this short and simple. When I see dates like 2040, all I can say is no way. Based on what's taking place here and aboard going forward, coupled with Peak Oil, Climate. The world will be very different place by then. As for the people, hard to say what the human race will become by then. At the very least, here in the US, we are going to have to live with a lot less - a lot less! That inlcudes the top 1%.
Why would top 1% cut back? They are willing to kill us to make sure we don't use resources. Big boys like Bill gates are talking about population control for a reason. Why would they cut back when the can force us to cut back or cull our numbers?
more of us than them is both sides problem and solution
Not exactly or directly financial but maybe a worthwhile read none the less. Everyone is discussing how rising entitlements, debt, and taxes will alter the US. Consider that it may well be Europe that will be suffering more.
http://article.nationalreview.com/430816/if-we-europeanize-europe-is-in-trouble/jonah-goldberg
We can’t become Europe unless someone else is willing to become America.
Look at it this way. My seven-year-old daughter has a great lifestyle. She has all of her clothes and food bought for her. She goes on great vacations. She has plenty of leisure time. A day doesn’t go by where I don’t look at her and feel envious of how good she’s got it compared to me. But here’s the problem: If I decide to live like her, who’s going to take my place?
Europe is a free-rider. It can only afford to be Europe because we can afford to be America.
Augie, you ought to be a comedian.
Europe and America are supported by China. America doesn't support anyone, except for welfarites inside of her own borders.
on Fri, 04/09/2010 - 21:10
#294096
Augie, you ought to be a comedian.
Europe and America are supported by China. America doesn't support anyone, except for welfarites inside of her own borders.
The coporate welfare system has cost us more in the last 3 years than all other forms of welfare, combined going back from the begining of America until today...
The poor are not living high on the hog... it is not the poor of this Country... it is the "AAA" Rated Corporations of America that are killing us, one and all, including themselves... maybe in the near term (I dont think so) but it is not an "if" but a "when" will the house of cards built... fall becuase house of cards is in fact top heavy... and how many at the bottom will be crushed becuase of the few? The poor's lobby is not moving the belt way boys for the benefit of the poor... and if you were to follow the money all of what has been offered would be that much more clear.
I offer... http://www.opensecrets.org/ and... http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/home.aspx
Only a professional comedian would link to the government recovery site and a social justice site..
Hilarious!
One line... of nothing, at least you are consistent in your approach.
In many ways, Europe is a free rider. One of the reasons Europeans have good services under European socialism is that they don’t have a huge defense budget such as the U.S. Americans, as they fall under socialism in a now borderless society where 47 percent of U.S. households will pay no federal income taxes for 2009, won’t be able to afford those European-style services.
Nor are Europeans forced to subsidize medical and pharmaceutical research for the rest of the world as are Americans: nor do they provide massive sums of worldwide foreign aid such as American workers provide to Israel, the largest recipient, and to other nations. Says Counterpunch, “The United States will give Israel $30 billion in military aid over the next decade…in cash at the start of each fiscal year… Since 1949, the United States has provided Israel with $101 billion in total aid, of which $53 billion has been military aid…”
In many ways, Communist China also is an easy rider; China is the recipient of Americans’ patent and manufacturing base, acquired effortlessly through backroom deal makings by borderless international corporations and bankers in exchange for China's low-cost collective labor. All made possible by a lobbyist-corrupted U.S. Congress.
And, just as Obama makes his great leap forward into socialism, the whole world system of socialism is breaking down. Socialism has a shelf life. Even China is injecting various degrees of capitalism into its State-run economy. State-directed European economies where the State or worker co-ops own the means of production with wealth redistribution via state welfare and taxation have all happened primarily since WWII. Look at the results--the Euro Zone: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland: the UK. And, now, look at what’s happening to the U.S. Socialism, including corporate socialism, is not some permanent cycle that’s going to keep working and working. There’s nothing in it for the productive individual.
The world will no longer be able to keep its collectivist cake and eat it too when it can no longer eat off the fruits of U.S. capitalism.
"When the capitalist is gone,” wrote Rose Wilder Lane in Give Me Liberty, “who will manage production? The State. And what is the State? The State will be the mass of toiling workers.”
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 02:00
#294325
***** "All made possible by a lobbyist-corrupted U.S. Congress." *****
JR,
Plus (+) a Billion.... screw it... make it Plus (+) a Trillion...
I would add that innovation has been crushed under the Legislative Branches... Corporate America is more interested in maintaining Market Share... or Growing Market Share thru legislation than leading in a Global Economy. Innovation is a bad thing... better to crush any and all who could offer something better. The lobby is a fixed cost, buying into new ideas... R & D, Patents... all expensive ways of doing business. Maintain the foot print with what is existing and try to grow the foot print in way that it can be milked going forward, stablized earnings and thusly hit the Bonus JackPot!
Be well, JW
Ashes to ashes.
dust to dust ,, illusion to illusion
The current and previous administrations have doomed this country, just as all other administrations of the developed world have done the same, in order to bail out the banking system, in the greatest fatally flawed private-public risk transfer experiment ever attempted… And the "everyone else" is getting angrier by the day, as they realize just how massive the wealth transfer scam truly is...
Bernanke, with his restricted vision, reminds me of a horse wearing blinders that’s hell-bent on destruction. I bet you we have a crisis coming that you wouldn’t believe, and Bernanke knows it. I heard just this morning on radio that the biggest political issue now on the public’s mind is debt—national debt. And well it should be.
Goldman and JP too big too fail? As Reggie Middleton said today in comments on A Fraud by Any Other Name: Nothing is too big to fail.
The bankers are going to destroy their U.S. customer base, which is the taxpayer base.
The Fed is destroying value, what people have worked for. It’s the same as destroying a natural resource for the country. A potential resource for your country is destroyed when you take money from the people who earned it and destroy it by debasing or stealing it; it isn’t available to the people who wanted to do something with it any longer.
Central planning won’t work; it always crashes and burns. Bernanke and his banker friends, IMHO, are staring down a big black bottomless financial pit that reaches all the way to China. For Americans, this means opportunity, IMO--opportunity to make a choice, either to be servants without sovereignty under the boot of international money masters, or, masters of their own destiny, under freedom and community whereby real wealth is exchanged using money issued and regulated by the Congress based on fixed standards of weights and measure and where the bankers are the servants.
Well said, JR, well said.
But I have to say, it is China that has been the recipient of the largest U.S. subsidy in history. They had factories built, technology granted, and market access to the U.S. without any reciprocity whatsoever.
China steals without recourse, they pull the strings on their little puppet in North Korea when they need a diversion, and they shamelessly play American political leaders for the gutless fools they are. Timmy visits China, China does not visit Timmy.
This China experiment will go down in History as the greatest transfer of wealth from America to a competitor, economically, politically and militarily. It makes the Marshall Plan look like pocket change.
And the Feds continuation of Zero Interest (trying to shore up the Welfare Banks) is perpetuating the monstrous misallocation of scarce financial resources from real value added assets into patty cake toilet paper.
Sadly the Remocrats and the Depublicans cannot put their country first.
“economically, politically and militarily”
Yes!…and morally. The American system began to prosper as soon as it was initiated, and the major reason for its success, IMO, was its principle of honesty, charity and equal opportunity for all under the law. That meant that free enterprise prospered on the basis of trust among the citizens and support for each other which enabled a growing, self-governed country to provide greater prosperity for its people than any other land in the history of the world.
The dimension of what was stolen and given to China that you’ve described is one of the most frightening reports that I’ve encountered. And I very much appreciate your providing it without holding back on the strength of your argument. And to think that all this is lost and now, as I’ve said, truth and equality under the law are severely damaged.
The revelations of our criminal financial system that we’ve seen over the past two or three years have underscored from whence the fire in the hole is coming. It is the loss of the control of our medium of exchange, the currency, to the private bankers operating within an opaque fiat monetary system, that enables secret transfers of the treasury and wealth of America to the estates of bankers and to the increasing power of the government of China.
It’s a quote that we’re all familiar with, but particulary now that we’re having to live with the results, it bears repeating:
“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes the laws.” --Mayer Amschel Rothschild
uhm, ever heard of david bonderman, founder TPG, Texas Pacific Group? jets to beijing on a weekly basis to meet with the chinese finance minister. big private equity guy. suspiciously seems to be on china soil more than american, lately. buying banks over there. is this a secret way of representing usa or commingling with china? i don't understand a lot about merging banks overseas. just slightly hearsay. known him for years.
CHINA 'REAL ESTATE BUBBLE'
A private figure who rarely grants interviews, Bonderman said the best prospects for investment are in Asia and parts of Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia. He's attracted to investment in China banks because the government's tight control of lending is fueling growth and braking major downturns.
Bonderman was pessimistic about growth in Europe and he expects the U.S. economy to continue a slow but steady recovery.
i asked him personally what he thought about the USD$ oh it will come back it always does. red or blue pill, david?
TPG and its affiliates have more than $45 billion of capital under management. Bonderman said those investments are about half in the U.S., with 40 percent in Asia and 10 percent in the rest of the world.
kinda like catch,n the scent.
imm going out of my mind, like a corkscrew to the heart.
these web pages just go, POOF†
excuse me, but i have just become aware of this tracking device/option on ZH. now, why are people wanting to track anonymous bag faced people?
hey the edit button on ZH is quite similar to the BUY button on your keyboard. hell, maybe ZH is enabling dexterity to fingers again with blogging. i kinda miss the early 2000's euphoria of everything, fingering keyboards. don't think i will find a willingly participant here in ZH.
blood on your saddle†
A change in the weather is known to be extreme
But what’s the sense of changing horses in midstream?
how do you reshuffle the deck
am a big girl, now
just say it, i need head help.
Really good to hear from you, velobabe. You're right, we're "catch'n the scent."
Taking a look at Bonderman’s bio and company profile, it looks as if we’re getting close to what the country’s problem is. These names begin to merge together. We’ve fought wars based on these connections.
http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=154278&privcapId=4468022&previousCapId=27862&previousTitle=eBay%20Inc.
TPG (formerly Texas Pacific Group) "is one of the largest private equity investment firms globally, focused on leveraged buyout, growth capital and leveraged recapitalization investments in distressed companies and turnaround.” And then come the connections, Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, Warburg Pincus, Bain Capital, The Blackstone Group, The Carlyle Group, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts… and the acquistions and the meetings with the foreign “finance ministers”…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TPG_Capital
It's legal plunder. "But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime." – Frederic Bastiat (The Law)
We are individuals, taxpayers and voters and subject to the laws made by Congress and the legislatures and enforced by strong law enforcement, federal, state and local. But some individuals in the country are beyond these regulations because they are connected to an ever more powerful ruling elite. Their advantages include access to US treasury money, sometimes as much as they need, and access to Federal regulators and government officials—all the way to Cabinet level to assist them in their business transactions whether it be leveraged buyouts in the United States or resource acquisitions in foreign countries. In other words, these individuals operate beyond the laws to which you and I are subjected.
A patriotic American’s view of the world economy is that it is a global economy that is growing based on trade and interaction between sovereign nations. But these oligarchs’ view of the global economy, that they call globalism, interprets the world as an open market for the interchange of resources and labor without regard to borders, nationality, loyalty, governmental sytems or even specific government regulations. The oligarchs back their actions with an access to the Federal Reserve and US treasury, fueled continuously by US taxpayer funds and American assets and the threat, and often utilization, of the US military, toppling other national governments if necessary.
This Age of the Oligarchs is suffocating the American system of providing national security to protect the freedom and free enterprise of American citizens. The United States was formed as a nation to protect the property rights and freedom of American citizens, not to provide support for individuals using government resources for their own estates and power. The oligarchs’ direction, as some candidly admit, is directed toward a world government whereby they will control the currency, and all economic, social and governmental activities of peoples of the world.
By the way, many references to Bonderman are available by simply typing the name on Google. And it’s interesting that with China’s antiquated but extensive censorship system, if you type the word carrot on Google in Mainland China a blank screen appears because the word in Mandarin has the same Chinese character as the surname of President Hu Jintao. If the March of the Oligarchs is not stopped , the Internet search engines in America won’t be of any use in determining how many of our freedoms have been stolen.
Fortunately, it is this very freedom of Internet access that we now enjoy that is the major reason the March of the Oligarchs will be stopped. But take care! velobabe. You run in high circles. And you’re a mighty valuable gal!
J.R.
jr, i have lots of secrets. lots but i don't want to be a hypocrite and kinda scared with what i know. my daughter, Asia has been teaching david, pilates every sunday morning (when on american soil) for the last 10 years. i'm pretty sure that is all she teaches him. but he is her sugar daddy buys her skis and bikes. he is a silent partner in my winery. yikes JR, i think bonderman is very very powerful. he gets called on emergencies to beijing and can't do pilates. he throws one hell of a Boxer Day (xmas) party. all GS Lehman everyone of them is there. at his 2500 acre wildcat ranch mansion compound. but he has let me ride my mountain bike on his property for like, ever. it is private and some of the best single track riding in the rockies, all to myself. so he is pretty nice about sharing the land. he just puts up no trespassing signs cause he doesn't want to be sued if someone falls off their bike. life is tough than you die, i hope. i know you know i am out to lunch but i don't lie.
Velobabe!!! Bonderman, i.e., TPG, has a tendency to end up owning companies where he’s been involved. As Business Week says: “This person is connected to 24 boards of directors in 24 different organizations across 37 different industries.” From 1969 to 1970, Mr. Bonderman served as a Director of Beringer Wine Estates Holdings Inc. You’re wine.
This guy no doubt is a money front, probably using US treasury money. In order to do these leverages you need to be backed by all kinds of money. To be partnered with Goldman means he’s connected.
I know he’s a nice guy. Probably even reads ZH. But remember what Kayman said: " Sweetheart, whatever you are hearing about me, I can assure you the truth is a lot worse..."
I don’t think you’re “out to lunch.” I just want you to come back from lunch, after you go out to lunch.
We’re all riding through wildcat country now...against the wind, velobabe. Take care!
J.R.
by Kayman
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 12:19
#294676
***** "Sadly the Remocrats and the Depublicans cannot put their country first." *****
Kayman,
I agree that the Lobby has bought and paid for our elected officials... I agree that China like Russia was bought and paid for a million times over... I agree the largest single drain this Country has ever suffered is Wall Street and the Banks... Thank You! for a Great Post!
Sincerely, JW
Bernanke and his banker friends, IMHO, are staring down a big black bottomless financial pit that reaches all the way to China.
And China is staring down a big black bottomless financial pit that reaches all the way to the US. It's an Escher painting, as some other wise poster on here recently noted.
At the risk of joining the confused, Poorold may be on to something.
Regarding auctions, I've always wondered where the money comes from to purchase these new issues. If I look at how much new debt comes to market in a week, then try to match that number with drawdowns in other assets (corps, equities, money market funds, bank deposits), I can never quite reconcile. Maybe Chris Martenson can do it. It seems to me that either all of the buying power for the now enormous weekly auctions is coming from under mattresses and was never counted in the system before, or Bernanke is printing enough each week to guarantee successful auctions.
Of course I suspect the latter. Clearly Bernanke put an ATM into every major bank last year with his QE I program, allowing banks to Rumplestiltskin their way to solvency (with a kicker from FASB157 changes). Since he has yet to print the marginal dollar than renders every single one printed before it worthless, he can continue down this path adding in regional banks, pension funds, even Social Security. Heck, we're adding Greece this weekend via the IMF contributions, and that will be the blueprint for propping up the rest of the PIS (minus the saved G). Since we're scratching the EU's back, we can then get them, via the IMF, to bailout California and Illinois when the time comes. I print my paper, you print yours, and everybody's a winner, since we all seem to agree (GG et al notable exceptions) that everybody's paper is a thing of beauty.
Still, I'd love to be able to do a real flow of funds to determine where all this buying power for sovereign debt issuance is really coming from.
you make a great point. I too would like to see a flow of funds to determine where all this buying power for SDI's is originating from. Especially as China has said they've sold bonds in January.
How it works. (as in I REALLY want to be a private bank!!!)
okay, I am now a private bank.
I call my assigned Federal Reserve lackey and tell him I'd like to participate in the 10 year auction beginning next week to the tune of $500 million.
In fact, I tell him I'd like to take that level of participation in each of the next 5 auctions.
He says "No problem, here's your account number to wire the money in for the purchase. Settlement is 24 hours following purchase."
I say, "Great, don't forget to set me up with an account for borrowing. I'll be depositing $500 million in 10 year notes next week."
He says "Not a problem there at all."
A sweet $20 million in annual interest payments and all the work required can probably can be completed by my administrative assistant while I'm sunning on the deck of my condo. (Next year I'll be able to afford something a little nicer.)
Oh...wait a minute...in less than a year I'll be skimming $120 million in risk-free interest.
That's why I REALLY want to be a bank and have friends at the Fed.
And may I take the denominator and add a question about GDP.....
In 2002-2007 the US built bazillions of homes, office buildings, malls, etc., and just about every American redid his or her kitchen with a SubZero fridge, island burners with grill, wine cellar, etc.
Then it stopped. How the heck did the US make up for all of that lost GDP? That's a damn lot of Kindles and iPhones and specialty coffees and Colts to make up for the lumber, copper, cement, PVC piping, roofing, macadam, kitchen appliances...not to mention all of the purchases NOT made by construction workers no longer putting up the aforementioned structures.
Was it all GG's gold buying that put us back on the path to growth? Was it all government spending? Do the state sales tax numbers call bullshit on the whole growth number?
This will all be going down a lot faster than anyone believes. The Treasury/Fed (now one entity) will have to reissue at ever higher rates, costs will spiral, buyers will be more rare. More surprises will come out of the closet. The AARP base will demand to be paid at 100% on the dollar (and just like Goldman, they will get it). Unlike Japan, pension funds here have no requirement to buy governments. Meanwhile, the Washington monster keeps lurching toward the cliff in the dark. No group dares pull up a chart of all spending, draws a line in the sand, and take each issue, recalc a control line, sign off on it and monitor it. Never going to happen. Look at how Ron Paul was disregarded by his own party after he brought many of the financial issues up in the last debates. His logic was spot on. People cheered, but he was destroyed by the party and media. Look at the Financial Crisis Commission. Joke. The rating agencies (see how Buffet is now getting out of Moodys) should be shut down just like Arthur Anderson was after Enron. Never going to happen. Why ? There parting jesture would be a U.S. downgrade to BBB. Can't mess with the agencies. They got us by the balls. Can't mess with the Chinese, (chorus) they got us by the balls (so keep on shipping over that cancerous goods (gypsum) and food over here. Yea love that cancer rate, yea). The problem really is not the debt that is out of control (these are numbers) but that the population is dumber (look at the level of idiocy amongst the main pop icons - it is stunning) than the monster. This goes for UK and much of Europe too.
We are going to have a long series of periods of yield spikes, followed by equity downdrafts followed by yield retracements. The best corporates will more frequently trade through US Tsy debt. Spreads will be traded v. a basket of these securities, not Tsy.
I know a lot of new folk here but in the 80's and 90's the South American chorus was "No Paga" when it came to paying their debts. So, what is No Paga in Chinese ?
As Taylor (Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes) said, "Its a Madhouse"...
Just when I'm due to start collecting social security! I was told not to expect it to be there when I was my turn, but I disbelieved and poo-poo'd. Now, it seems the day the world will end is not 2012 but 2040. No wonder my credit card company gave me a card with an expiration date in 2013. I thought they were being extremely optimistic.
As an interesting aside there was a census psa on the radio today in my state that claimed each person was worth $1500 in government funding for the state so please answer the form and send it in. I'm curious, is this $1500 figure that we're worth in government funding different for each state (ie-California, I would be worth $2500 in government funding but in Vermont it would only be $900 in funding)?
Lastly, apropos of nothing on this topic: I have a question that maybe someone can answer? Anyone see those articles about the group “Responsible Wealth Network” who want to pay more in taxes? One of the speakers was a GS guy and he spoke about the "elites" in the financial world that would enforce a 'fair' system that was based on social justice. Now, I'm wondering - if the market (see ZH's article about AIG shorts being told to 'cover') which keeps going up and up and up, even though every piece of legislation coming up from the foggy bottom will kill jobs, destroy buying power, keep the 47% of people who pay no taxes and get refunds as a permenant underclass, are they spiking the market until November when *possibly* the republicans take over and then they tank the market to show spite, thus causing pension funds to lose money and the elderly to cry out that they are being starved? Is this really the extent to the manipulation that is happening? And to add something else to the comment - I hear that 2 congressmen are quiting to go into banking to make a lot of money before they retire.
Now if the above is the case? I'm with the person who wrote "fuck them".
The trading system is broken by infiltration of
political elites who have an agenda and its not to let grandma have a comfortable retirement through prudent investing. Wouldn't want her on the golf greens with her husband. Too many of those types and everyone's t-time gets screwed up with riff raff.
Dear Flatch:
I can only answer your question(s) through a personal anecdote:
I once dated a woman who was wrapped up in the "what other people think" madness, who came to me one day and said, "do you know what people are saying about you in town?" I sat her down, looked into her eyes and said, " Sweetheart, whatever you are hearing about me, I can assure you the truth is a lot worse...."
If a government, government agency, or a politician is skirting around an issue, then the truth of the matter is ugly.
Kayman
P.S. when my wife asks me "did you hear a word I just said". I always reply, "if you had something interesting to say, I'd be listening..." You have my permission to freely use this with your spouse.
Have a nice day.
The elites have a simple agenda. Maintain a middle class that is insulated from the elite and the lower class and able to incorrectly judge both those classes through not having any connection to what occurs in their lives. Beat down a small percentage of the population at a time revolving people in and out of the middle class for touch up damaging in the lower class or reseeding of belief that what is advertised is what is really going on. Keep doing this till everyone is dependant on the elite to protect them or punish them. Once the chicken transformation is done. It's chicken fucking time. They are only interested in creating an entire world full of people who will not stand up to them no matter how dreadful their behavior is. And they are doing it in fractional fuckovers just like they do their economic system. Making people feel horrible, useless, all alone about 10 percent of the population at a time.
when you have "leaders" like Franklin Raines, you know what the results will be:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41165-2004Sep22.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_Raines
how many millions does he need in order to be satisfied?
No, no no! You all have it wrong! A big ass asteroid is going to wipe us out and then the earth will be re-populated by aliens. shhh...
at least the alien's central bank will charge their primary dealers 4% to build
No worries mate! The money plan has been implemented to sync with the Mayan calendar and 2012 in order to maximize the economic effect on people's superstitions. Blankfein said it best when he indicated they're doing 'God's work'. They don't want the panic just yet.
Hmmm,,, help me launch www.internetstatesofamerica.com.
Help me design a new money concept based upon distributed banking.
I need some braniac/gamer/econo geeks to help codify it.
I have about 600K gold in my possession plus some gold mining share certificates amounting to another 400K. That is all I need to start a new life if I have to. I don't lose any sleep over it.
Apart from that I play all the conventional games with cash. My trading account could end up being worth zero even if I was a genius at trading, (which I am not). Because it is all electronic.
I have accounts in Euros, US$s, A$s, CAD$s, even Sterling and Kenya Shillings. All electronic. They could all be worth zero any time soon! So I buy cut stone for building blocks and stock pile them. (Theft is not a major problem for heavy things like that, even in this economy.) However I can't carry them with me if I really have to get going.
I have no debts, and just go on doing what I am doing with my African beach front real estate. All that could go belly up quite easily as well if there was a world wide financial melt down.
I think I am in the 0.1%. Probably well down in the lower part of it ! Am I wrong ?
The key is to have gold in your own possession. I am quite sure a big part of those bankers bonuses go towards buying physical gold. They know !
I see a lot of people on this site who obviously haven't got gold in their possession (GLD is not gold) and who are "hoping". Stop hoping and get on with it !
Don't look now, but cash is now considered contraband (along with pornography) in your safety deposit box, a misnomer in terms if there ever was one.
http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/clip_image0042.jpg
From Jim Sinclair, the most honest and reliable market analyst in the world today:
http://jsmineset.com/2010/04/09/in-the-news-today-511/
Do not keep anything you would not want to lose or have stolen from you OUT of your "safety" deposit box and put it with someone you can trust (i.e. the Bank of YOU).
I am Chumbawamba.
The only reason to give money to a bank is so they can make money from your money for themselves until they lose it all to their gambling, drug & hooker addictions. The concepts of accrued and compounding interest has been sundered by the banks and their regulators rendering their contribution to society more than simply poisonous.
a 10-4 on sinclair
most are looking for Godot or some scrum of posters to have a clue
Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
More accurate warnings from the Bank for International Settlement.
This makes my price objective of $1650 almost silly in its conservatism.
The future of public debt: prospects and implications
by Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli
2 February 2010
A revised version, published on 26 March 2010, is available as BIS Working papers No 300
This paper was prepared for the Reserve Bank of India’s International Research Conference "Challenges to Central Banking in the context of Financial Crisis", Mumbai, India, 12-13 February 2010.
Need some advice. Other than holding it (don't want to worry about being robbed), what's the best way to own P.M.s. Are mining stocks a good idea?
use your imagination . get some hide it ,, dont tell any one lol
or buy soon haul it down to brinks .. an allocated secure location . monthly statements..
of course most are looking to secure some place for five coins
and need to spring for 7000.
mining stocks a good idea .. take possession of certs /
hold for lomg term .
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 16:37
#294903
***** "use your imagination . get some hide it ,, dont tell any one lol" ***** I agree!
***** "or buy soon haul it down to brinks .. an allocated secure location . monthly statements.." ***** Depending on the terms of the SKR http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_safekeeping There are stories here (here being Zero hedge) about JP Morgan being sued for mis-handling Gold.. or.. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/latest-gold-fraud-bombshell-canadas-only-bullion-bank-gold-vault-practically-empty In short I say trust no one but yourself, or brother... Family or the like... if that is something the indvidual is comfortable with...
Here is anohter source that of course comes back here to Zero.. but it is a good read.. http://seekingalpha.com/article/197729/comments
Kohalakid, I defer to your knowledge of precious metals markets, you seem to have more than many here including myself.
However, doesn't it seem slightly suspcious to you that the owner biggest short position on Comex, JPM, is the custodian of SLV?
SLV's silver cannot be audited, as JP Morgan has the right to have sub custodians and sub sub custodians hold silver for the SLV. READ THE PROSPECTUS!
This means they can back up the SLV with long positions in futures, since "someone else" has the silver. So, SLV is backed by futures, and futures can now be backed by SLV.
It's now fraud backing fraud. But business as usual for the banks!
Please explain to me how world silver supply mysteriously seemed to jump with the introduction of SLV, with no significant new sources of mine production. Is the SLV supposed hoard being double counted?
Also, it was revealed yesterday that the Scotia Mocatta Bullion Vault in Toronto had a lot less bullion than people had been led to believe.
www.zerohedge.com/arti...
Here is a quote from an owner of the Canadian Claymore gold ETF who was led to believe from Claymore's website that there gold was being held in that very vault:
"The ScotiaMocatta empty vault should contained at the very least the Gold & Silver bullions of Claymore Investments Inc.
They list on their website,( claymoreinvestments.ca.../ ), the bullions they are alleging to have stored there; This, as of yesterday, was $472 millions of gold (GLV) and $77 of silver(SVL.UN) for a total of say $550 m.
Adrian Douglas estimated at only $100 millions what was inventoried in the vault.
This is more than a shortage and Claymore is the smallest bullion fund in Canada.
I own a chunk of these fund and for the last 3 months, I have been asking Claymore for the Ernst & Young audit report of Claymore holdings of this facility and the last response from Claymore was:
"The actual bar audit list is not a public document – E&Y does not allow us to release it for public viewing. The data that is posted on the website is essentially the information attained through the audits."
NOW HEAR THIS:
I am a co-owner.
My depository is Scotia Bank.
My agent is Claymore.
and my auditor is Ernst & Young.
The auditor is paid to confirm to me that what Claymore and Scotia Bank are claiming are facts.
They all claimed the I cannot have access to an audit I paid for from an agent I pay to hold my gold which is apparently not there....
What a racket! I am not sure I will be able to sleep tonight!"
Be well, JW
P.S. ANYONE! considering storing Gold, even with a name Brand Bank... NEEDS! TO! READ! THIS!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/everbank-deletes-now-infamous-section-6373
ANYONE! Buying in bulk... from Name Brand Bank (or other) needs to read this!
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/genesis-gold-tungsten-rest-story
PLEASE! be aware of the risks... and buy ammo and food first before sinking all of your money into Gold which may not be needed!
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 15:55
#294873
Need some advice. Other than holding it (don't want to worry about being robbed), what's the best way to own P.M.s. Are mining stocks a good idea?
Gloomy,
If... IF! you have all of the other bases covered... and you can afford to purchase and hold without taxxing yourself in any way... Physical Gold is the only. ONLY! way to go... I am not Gold Bug... But I damn sure have some... The ability to protect yourself, beyond Gold... is something you should take seriously, I say these things out of Love for my Fellow Countrymen and Women...
If you have room to play in your disposable income... Bank Stocks are a wise choice as well... Brand Name "AAA" Rated only... Bank of America is not going to fail and if it does the World will be in pieces so your Ammo, Food and Gold will be the only things that matter.
Having a safe place for things like Gold is an expense you whould look into... if you have a solid foundation for your house a floor safe is a great idea.. and you can put it somewhere creative.
As far as firearms and your local... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTmtQ8QHIdI very little recoil..
as well... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRdd21brkkg
as far a reasch out and touch someone... AR-15 with a H&K 416 conversion kit... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjMH94PuT_I with the conversion kit found here... http://www.gunsamerica.com/924417841/Non-Guns/Gun-Parts/M16-AR15/Osprey_Def_Gas_Piston_Conversion_AR_15_OPS_416.htm
for more exotic... a bullpup or P-90... to match you Herstel... and please! Ammo will be worth its weight in Gold at some point...
This is of course if the world goes to hell in a hand basket... which is why you would be hedging into physical Gold to begin with..
I hope this helped and be well, JW
Only if you can count on the counterparty to redeem your shares when you call them in.
I am Chumbawamba.
Graph 4. Shows part of the game plan of the elite "Global Governance" movement. Make everyone in the world addicted to the Beast of debt. Tyler mentions that the BRIC countries are next. This may happen if you see China continue its debt boom and the others follow along. It will be hailed as the Developing nations "leading us out of the Great Recession". But it can also set the stage for them to get entrapped as well in the oceans of debt the West is wallowing in. Misery loves company, as Cognitive Dissonance shared with us a week ago.
Starving the Beast of debt will entail personal sacrifice (cutting off sources of capital of ALL kinds) and becoming as self-reliant as possible and owning physical assets and having personal skills that everyone needs.
A fourth "scenario" BIS does not show in the charts is when the system finally does crash and everyone is in the trap together.......perhaps around 2020? Just in time for WWIII - see this book written in 1997,
http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-William-Strauss/dp/0767900464/ref=s...
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 18:45
#294995
Graph 4. Shows part of the game plan of the elite "Global Governance" movement. Make everyone in the world addicted to the Beast of debt. Tyler mentions that the BRIC countries are next. This may happen if you see China continue its debt boom and the others follow along. It will be hailed as the Developing nations "leading us out of the Great Recession". But it can also set the stage for them to get entrapped as well in the oceans of debt the West is wallowing in. Misery loves company, as Cognitive Dissonance shared with us a week ago.
Starving the Beast of debt will entail personal sacrifice (cutting off sources of capital of ALL kinds) and becoming as self-reliant as possible and owning physical assets and having personal skills that everyone needs.
A fourth "scenario" BIS does not show in the charts is when the system finally does crash and everyone is in the trap together.......perhaps around 2020? Just in time for WWIII - see this book written in 1997,
on Sat, 04/10/2010 - 18:45
#294995
CookieMonster,
So should I wear my pajama's? and drink poison? or???
Repeating cycles? does it make you feel better to see into the future? does it help make you feel better to know what is around the corner? do you think a happy populace enjoys stable ups and downs? maybe even comforts everyone?
Do you think the Alien's? are watching us?
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/showthread.php?p=299127#post299127
There has been a lot of talk here about cycles not only within the saeculum but across multiple ones. This is purely theoretical, and it probably has some flaws, but it makes sense to me.I've said a number of times on this board that I have felt very strongly a 3-decade repeating cycle -- that to me, there is a strong correlation between: the 1950s/1980s, 1960s/1990s and 1970s/2000s.
I decided to look at what happens if you map "my" cycle over the S&H one. The best terms I can come up with for the decade-to-decade cycle is that you have a "conservative" decade, followed by a "liberal" decade, followed by a "down" decade where nothing seems to work and society becomes pessimistic.
Keeping in mind that the S&H turnings do not exactly correspond to decades, and "rounding up" some for exact turning points, this is what you get:
>>>>
1940s: Down
Current Saeculum
1T - High
1950s: Conservative
1960s: Liberal
2T - Awakening
1970s: Down
1980s: Conservative
3T - Unraveling
1990s: Liberal
2000s: Down
4T - Crisis
2010s: Conservative
2020s: Liberal
Coming Saeculum
1T - High
2030s: Down
2040s: Conservative
[B]2T - Awakening That was a great laugh! Thanks! Sincerely, JW
JW,
You ask some good questions about what helps me in terms of wanting to see the future. I guess I would definitely say that most of my life, I have wanted to see larger patterns in which to understand things around me. I am not so intellectual to get into the nitty gritty arguments and nit picking. The post you quoted from the FourthTurning web site by JustPassingThrough gets about as complicated as I want and no more. I actually get very bored with it all. I read the book years ago and only heard references to it last year by some newsletter writer (Doug Casey). I tend to be very conventional, so I am no anarchist like him. But I am also very investigative and want to know WHY. THAT is what bugs people about me, some people get very verbally abusive towards me because of that.
Besides, the book I mentioned is all about historical probabilities (written by very dry historians), nothing is written in stone but it may just have general predictive patterns that we can know and use. So, when I see David Knox Barker (another cycles guy) recently say that the Winter may have ended in 2009 or maybe with a double dip in 2012, I think immediately that that is in conflict with the historical research done by Strauss & Howe + the other ridiculously insane economic debt numbers, and I say to myself (and others) - NO WAY Jose!
As far as whether you like drinking your favorite poison with pj's on, that's up to you. However, Kool Aid does NOT seem to be your style! :)
My personal response to the patterns is very different than if I just floated along with the MSM news and expectations of friends. Starving the Beast, learning something about self-defense, perhaps learning another practical trade, whatever, there are PRACTICAL things that come out of seemingly nonsensical research. I am not quite in the Chumbawamba camp, but I am slowly making my way towards something similar.
Now, back to Uncle Sam. He is holding out his hand for another $500 Zillion handout before April 15.........
Hope that answered your questions?
I should have known you had a clue... with a name like CookieMonster, I love cookies... but not for tracking purposes. Somehow I don’t think my sweet tooth and your name are connected.
The economic model followed from well beyond my time in the driver’s seat has been in fact cyclical. Now, is it because of cheap money? Is the cheap money by design the last 30 years? I dont have the pay grade needed to answer those questions, although I would love a peek at the manual being followed.
General ignorance, the perpetuation of ignorance and keeping the huddled masses comfy and pacified… basically on the other side of everyone’s gated communities walls… could be attributed to the constant and consistent ups and downs… familiarity breeds contempt my fucking ass! It does inspire comfort in the broader sense, in my “O” so humble opinion.
I will have to read the book now, as I am a sucker plainly for information maybe even more so than yourself. So I will Thank You for inspiring me to read the book. The time you have taken and the demeanor maintained speaks to who you are, even in an anonymous chartroom. Kudos to you fine Sir for not relegating yourself to my downtrodden style of entertainment.
My very best to You and Yours CookieMonster now and always, JW
How to Corner the Gold Market (pdf)
http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/Gold.pdf
So when gold does in fact go to $5,000 and the country is awash in blood and anarchy, then just who do we shoot? ZH, how 'bout naming names.
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