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Big Storm to Hit Gulf of Mexico ... All Oil Relief Operations Will Be Suspended ... Cap Will Stay On, Unattended
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As
oil industry expert Bob Cavnar writes:
The
National Hurricane Center this morning forecasted a 70% chance that
Invest 97, now just south of the Bahamas, would form into a tropical
cyclone. Destination? The central Gulf. In his McBriefing yesterday,
Kent Wells announced that instead of running and cementing the last
liner into relief well 1, they had already run in a storm packer to
temporarily seal the well and were preparing to shut down. Here's the
storm track by computer model.
In
other words, BP is shutting down its drilling of the relief wells until
the storm passes.
Cavnar points out that this could be awhile:
A
hurricane, or even a tropical storm, will cause 10 days to 2 weeks of delay. Yesterday, [Admiral
Thad] Allen said that the decision whether to open the capping stack or
leave it closed was currently being discussed. Without monitoring,
there is fear of a major leak causing serious damage to the wellhead
endangering future containment efforts. He also said that they would
leave an ROV boat as last boat out, since it can travel faster than the
service vessels.
I agree with what Cavnar as
written previously: instead of doing the "well integrity test", BP might
have been able to kill the well by now if it hadn't suspended drilling
of the relief wells so that it could run
that test.
It is not yet clear whether the storm will turn
into a hurricane. As I warned
on May 14th, there is a possibility that a hurricane could spread the
oil inland.
The Weather Channel notes
today:
"The oil movement will be strongly
impacted not only by what the storm track is but how large the storm
is," says Luettich. "A small storm that has very strong winds could
have a very large impact. But also a weaker storm that is larger will
also have an impact."
***
"A hurricane on Katrina's path
would push a lot of stuff onto shore, given where a lot of the oil is
right now," says Luettich.A storm that moves up the west coast
of Florida may be the best case scenario for the oil slick, if there is
such a thing. It may push the oil farther out to sea and help
disperse it more.
***
What happens when the hurricane moves
inland? It's not just coastal residents affected by the massive
storms. The remnants can affect communities hundreds of miles inland.
***
As
the hurricane moves inland it will pick up particles of oil. That
will become part of the sea spray that moves inland with the storm.
According to Chris Zappa, an oceanographer at Columbia University, we're
likely to see a light coating of oil on electrical wires and trees.
He likens it to standing in sea spray for a while. You'll walk away
with a light sheen of salt water on your skin. Instead of salt water,
it will feel like oil water.However, this would be a very
localized effect. For example if a hurricane made landfall in Alabama,
the coastal communities would feel the oily sea spray. However, it
wouldn't make it to Montgomery or even Dothan, which are both more than
hour inland.Thinking about a sheen of oil on your skin may give
you the heebie jeebies, but it won't hurt you. Experts at NOAA
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) say the amount of oil
that would be carried inland in water vapor would be less than normal
levels of pollution.
I don't believe anyone
has studied the potential effect of a hurricane on the large
amounts of methane released by the oil gusher, and the millions of
gallons of Corexit sprayed into the Gulf. While some blithely
dismiss any danger and others are giving apocalyptic visions, I don't
think anyone really knows how bad it could be.
The government has
just announced that the cap will stay on - unattended - throughout the
storm. Specifically, National Incident Commander Thad Allen just announced:
The decision has been made to leave
the cap on, even if the well is unattended.
I hope
and pray that the well does not blow out while no one is looking.
Hurricanes
can also tear up the seafloor, but probably only in shallow waters. As
pointed out in a study conducted by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory
at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi (via Science
Daily):
Based on unique measurements taken
directly under a powerful hurricane, the new study's calculations are
the first to show that hurricanes propel underwater currents with
enough oomph to dig up the seabed, potentially creating underwater
mudslides and damaging pipes or other equipment resting on the bottom.***
Based
on unique measurements taken directly under a powerful hurricane, the
new study's calculations are the first to show that hurricanes propel
underwater currents with enough oomph to dig up the seabed, potentially
creating underwater mudslides and damaging pipes or other equipment
resting on the bottom.***
The research team found that
strong currents along the sea floor pushed and pulled on the seabed,
scouring its surface. "Usually you only see this in very shallow water,
where waves break on the beach, stirring up sand," says David Wang,
co-author of the study. "In hurricanes, the much bigger waves can stir
up the seafloor all the way down to 90 meters [300 feet]."
***
Hurricanes
considerably weaker than Ivan, which was category-4, could still tear
up the seafloor, causing significant damage as deep as 90 meters.
But even thought the ill-fated well is too deep to suffer a direct hit by a hurricane, there are many things which could still go wrong.
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nothing
GW - Dig this whitewash BS. All is well. They can't find any oil to scoop up from surface of GoM. Its all over! Phew, and I thought this would last for years. Fing BS!
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hkmir-yGBuclKUXtje0SJQ1d9IKQ
They can't find any oil on the beaches either! They are clean! HONEST! There is no cover-up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30t_hHLbzQg
I can just read the headlines now....Well damaged by high winds, oil leaking again. This way they can say BP had the leak stopped and it was an act of nature that started it again, relieving BP of future liability!!!
Shanky, you well know that the oil stopped flowing a week ago. They just opened up 26,000 sq miles for sport fishing and the skimmers are being called back to port due to lack of oil. Nothing to see here, the beaches are packed and the Gulf ecosystem has just about finished the process of restoring itself.
The fact that there have been no scientific voyages since NOAA shut them down in early June should not be of concern, just a bunch of academic hacks looking looking for research grants.
You know the story, if a tree falls in the woods...
and besides I just heard on the news that President Obama will be taking his family to the Gulf Coast next month for a weekend vacation.
Oil, what oil? Mission Accomplished
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZGswXlKDDQ
I'll be interested in A) where they go (I bet it will be East of Panama city Beach) and B) if he and the kids get in the ocean. We all know they will be replacing the old sand with new before they get there, but they can't replace the Corexit tainted water. Let him swim away, spend the whole darn weekend in the water if it is so safe. you know after replacing the sand a team of 100 "experts" will be testing the water where they are for "potential" contaminates. (I'd love to see those results). Will they swim? Will they take one for the team?It would be a big tell if they do not swim and another if they get sick. My odds are with them not getting in the ocean.
When I was at the beach a while back I walked down to see the tarballs and such. 5 minutes on the beach in bare feet, and the bottom of my feet burned for a day. The beaches are toast for years.
Here is what I wrote.
http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2010/06/shankys-gom-report.html
Are you saying that there is still oil on the surface that is thick enough to scoop up or burn?
You must be either really nieve or you are definately shill. Do you honestly think they cleaned up the millions of gallons in the last 5 days? They are still cleaning up oil in Alaska 20 years later DIP STICK!
I didn't want to assume what he meant. I was trying to clarify what he was saying.
There could possibly be billions of gallons of oil spread out over the gulf. But it those billions of gallons had spread so thin that the skimmers could not pick it up and it could not be set on fire, then the boats would be headed home. If you think about it, they are not saying there is no oil at all. They are saying there is no oil that the skimmers can pick up. Big difference. Plus, there have been reports that BP has been spraying Corexit at night, against orders. That would make surface oil disappear.
"Hurricanes considerably weaker than Ivan, which was category-4, could still tear up the seafloor, causing significant damage as deep as 90 meters."
WTF, we're talking about 5,000 feet of water here, not 300.
That's my point!!! Won't tear up the sea floor! Good news for a change!!
I know there are dozens of sites and experts and storm tracking etc etc but I find this one to be quite robust
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/N.html
Thanks, like the simple layout on this one.
Agreed.
I think the concern is not the cap remaining intact but the debate about the pressures and reservoir depletion. Assuming that depletion is the answer (and I find that a bit difficult to buy into i.e. it was never postulated by BP nor by Adm That (Ret.) in fact just the opposite), better to have cap on than cap off. Besides even if it does come off, the relief wells subject to a weather delay are the ultimate solution, at least that's what Kent has been saying over and over.
If I was anywhere near the Gulf, I would leave now and not be a guinea pig for this reckless science experiment. This will be the first serious storm and my guess come Monday there will be alot of really pissed off people.
Well I'll let you know how it turns out, assuming I'm still alive afterwards.
Richard Nixon, get the heck outa there fella! On utube are many accounts of oil rain. Doubt all you like, plants and bugs are dying and folks are getting diarea and other symptons. Its definitely in the air.
1mealperday on utube and i am warning all folks i can.
If it werent for all the folks getting sick , i might not believe it either. Good luck!
My limited knowledge of engineering from a previous life is, the longer it holds, the less likely the risk of a failure. It has held for about a week now, so the risk of a failure at this time would be small. The tropical depression/hurricane will not directly affect the well cap.
I would tend to agree except that there's a leak(s) in a major connection. And leaks have a tendency to get bigger, not to fix themselves. The bigger leak has gotten a little bit worse over the past few days based upon video I have seen. And when leaks begin to get worse, they can get worse in a hurry.
I suspect it will only be 3 or 4 days from the time the last ROV leaves and when the first one is back. Most likely nothing will happen in that short period of time.
I've been skeptical of the tales of raining oil as a result of this spill. However. It rained a lot down here in New Orleans metro recently, and for the first time I noticed some odd,tiny blotches on my car afterwards. One was black and was very difficult to remove, and left a tiny crater-like ring in the paint. The others were also small and had a reddish tint to them, also hard to remove. I don't know what they were but I've never seen anything like them before. Just sayin.
Richard, check the vegetation for necrosis the next few days.
Under the right conditions, it can literally rain fish.
I understand that GW. Right now I'm preoccupied with trying to figure out whether it is in fact raining oil on me.
Good luck, REN. May you escape harm like this guy on the bike:
....or not. NOLA appears to be right where the winds and tidal surge will push the oil.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/207639547001/possible-movement-of-oil-d...
Thanks GW, that's the kind of luck we're probably going to need for the next month or two down here. The guy on the bike keeps peddling like he's delivering boxes full of gold plated tungsten bars or something.
LOL
+ 24kt plating
This could be a blockbuster hollywood movie - if it wasn't so real . Of course in the hollywood movie there would be a methane firestorm and the well would blowout while it wasn't being supervised to sell tickets .And don't forget the guy in the boat outrunning 20 foot oil swells in the gulf to rescue his son who snuck on the rig unknowingly.But the real story is the Gov't and BP Blow up a nuke to fix the problem while everyone else is on shore and the dad catches them in the act and notifies the MSM when he gets back to shore with his son .
But in all seriousness the way this cursed thing has gone so far it wouldn't surprise me at all if the cap causes a blowout when no one is looking . Electrons do strange things when no one is looking