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"Buy A Gun" Google Queries Hit All Time High, And Other Off The Grid Economic Indicators
In lieu of a credible macroeconomic data reporting infrastructure in America, increasingly more people are forced to resort to secondary trend indicators, most of which have zero economic "credibility" within the mainstream, yet which provide just as good a perspective of what may be happening behind the scenes in this once great country. A good example was a recent Gallup poll, which contrary to all expectations based on a now completley irrelvant and thoroughly discredited ADP number, which led some br(j)okers such as the Barclays Insane Predictions Team to speculate a 580,000 NFP number was in the books, indicated that the jobless situation barely improved in December. Sure enough, this was promptly confirmed by the January 7 NFP number. And so, in looking for a variety of other "off the grid" economic indicators we read a recent report by Nicholas Colas, which proves to us that we are not the only 'nerdy' entity out there increasingly searching for metrics that have some rooting in reality, and not in the FASB-BLS-Census Bureau joint ventured never-never land. And while we recreate the key points from the report, the one item that should be highlighted is that, as we have suspected for a while, the social undertow of fear, skepticism and anger is coming to a boil, as Google queries of the "Buy A Gun" search querry have just hit an all time high. How much of this is due to the recent events from Tucson, AZ is unclear. What is clear is that the trend is most certainly not your friend (unless you are of course the CEO of Smith and Wesson).
We'll leave the interpretation of this chart to our very erudite politicians.
As for other must read observations on the topic of derivative economic indicators, we present Nicholas Colas' must read latest: "Off The Grid” Economic Indicators – Q410 Edition
There are a lot of economic indicators out there, and we pay attention to all of them because government decision makers have told us they shape economic policy. But there’s a wealth of independently developed economic and statistical data available as well, and much of it provides much-needed color on the real state of the U.S. economy. Our collection of anecdotal datapoints, which we have dubbed the “Off The Grid” indicators, paint a more nuanced picture of a slow growth U.S. economy that is still struggling with the aftermath of the Financial Crisis. Bullish points include demand for pickup trucks, used cars and an increasing number of people who leave their jobs voluntarily instead of through layoff. Bearish points are headlined by still-rising food stamp participation, with gun sales and rampant buying of silver coins underpinning continued popular concerns over personal security and the soundness of the dollar. Food inflation also features on this list. Neutral points: mutual fund inflows (but potentially turning positive) and Gallup poll consumer spending.
Ever wonder where the word “Nerd” came from? It’s a “nerdy” question, to be sure, but apparently it comes from a Dr. Seuss book entitled “If I Ran the Zoo.” I don’t remember the appearance of the word from my early exposure to the work, but I certainly remember the opening:
“If I ran the zoo,”
Said young Gerald McGrew
“I’d make a few changes,
That’s just what I’d do.”
That’s pretty much the way I feel about the current state of economic indicators that we all pick apart, analyze, and try to cajole into some form of investable signal every day. We look at them because the Federal Reserve looks at them. And the Treasury. And the White House. And every other seat of economic power. But in reality they look at them because these datasets have been around long enough that someone, somewhere, has done a doctoral dissertation or other academic treatise validating their relevance.
In the world of automated and computerized payrolls, for example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics still uses a telephone survey of a few thousand households to decide if employment is rising or falling. OK, this used to be a hard issue to tackle in the 1950s and 1960s. But the U.S. Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service tracks everyone’s contributions for payroll and tax withholding in real time now. If someone stops getting their paycheck, Treasury knows about it by the time of their next pay cycle. They can identify where the person works based on their zip code. The employment picture should be clear as day using this data. It used to be hard when paychecks doubled as computer punchcards (my Dad had those in the 1970s). The telephone survey approach is like using a horse and buggy to get around when there are the keys to a perfectly good Ferrari in your pocket.
All good natured ranting aside, there’s no excuse for not casting a wider net when it comes to the never-ending search for useful economic data. And you don’t need to be a “nerd” (there’s that word again) to get it – we aren’t talking about advanced language algorithms working against a Twitter API feed. The data is out there and thanks to the Internet it is pretty easy to track. That’s the reason we have developed our “Off the Grid” economic indicators – our “eyes” into the real U.S. economy. And those “eyes,” we hope, are truly the windows into the soul of some form of lasting recovery.
Our take away from this quarter’s indicators is that the recovery in the U.S. economy is slow and unevenly distributed, with several long-tailed effects that may take decades to fully understand.
- The bad news – and there’s still plenty of it – is that the Financial Crisis pushed millions of Americans into government assistance programs such as Food Stamps, dampened their confidence in the currency, and made them feel much less secure about their personal safety.
- The good news – and there is more now than at any point in the year we’ve been looking at the data – is that more people are feeling better about the labor markets, buying big ticket items, and perhaps even investing in U.S. stocks again.
- The wild card – and it is a big one – is food inflation. We’re back to where we were at the peak of the prior cycle in 2007, but with an economy that is nowhere near as strong.
The data, in short, supports the mainstream economic viewpoint that the U.S. economy is improving at a slow pace. The nuances that it highlights, however, are that the damage from the recent recession is as much cultural as economic. A consumer base – even one at the lower end of the economic ladder – with fundamental concerns over food security and affordability or personal safety is not the “dry tinder” of a strong economic bounce back. I don’t know whether to call that “New Normal,” “Old Abnormal” or whatever other rubric might fit this paradigm. But it is a picture of the landscape that you don’t see as much in the government-approved economic indicators, and it tells a separate and perhaps more accurate truth.
The various indicators that inform this view are all included in the attachments to this note , and we’ll touch on a few of the important ones here:
Food Stamps – This program, originally created to sell surplus produce to starving Americans in the Depression, has morphed over the decades into a foodpurchase grant to low income households. The growth rates for SNAP (the modern name for Food Stamps – Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) have been stratospheric for the last two years at +15% year-on-year growth. Part of this was a change to eligibility requirements in 2009, but a lot more was the impact on the recession among low income households. The program now helps over 43 million Americans feed themselves, about 14% of the U.S. population.
The good news, if one can call it that, is that the growth rates are slowing. Last month one of our one strategy team members went to several public assistance offices outside New York to speak to people waiting for a consultation and those interviews shed some light on this trend. The bottom line is that such facilities were simply overwhelmed over the past two years. People who qualified for public assistance needed to visit such centers several times, as the paperwork needed to complete the application process is lengthy and convoluted. So growth rates rose steadily as these individuals finally cleared the hurdles required to receive benefits. One other data point that supports that the growth in the SNAP program may have peaked: Google searches for the term “Food Stamps” are no higher than mid-year 2010.
The deeper question is what the widespread adoption of SNAP will do to the society over the coming years. This is actually not a budget discussion – SNAP is very efficient and costs less than $100 billion a year to help +40 million Americans. Rather, it is a question of the effects of long term reliance on government support to economic issues such as labor participation rates and employment levels. We are in uncharted waters here, to be sure.
Durable Goods Purchases – The most upbeat news from our indicators is the degree to which consumers are snapping up used cars and pickups. Yes, the economic data focuses on all light vehicles, but the “Off the Grid” indicators dance to a different drummer. Used car prices are a great leading indicator for new car and truck demand, and the Manheim Auto Auction data keeps hitting new highs. Pickup trucks are work vehicles, primarily purchased by small businesses. After a steep selloff from the bursting of the housing bubble, pickup truck demand is now positive again, to the tune of +20% year on year for several months in a row.
Guns, Ammunition, and Silver Coins – Whether you are “pro-“ or “anti-“ gun, the sale of firearms should be on your radar screen as a heuristic measurement of something I will call “consumer security.” There is a baseline of organic firearm demand in the U.S. – for years it was about 8 million units, as measured by the FBI’s instant background check request data. With the 2008 recession that number spiked to first 10 million and now 14 million background checks a year. At first observers chalked that up to a Democratic President, but it has been years since Obama’s inauguration and the numbers keep climbing. I attribute that to a deeper sense of unease in the population – perhaps about government controls, perhaps about crime. Hard to say how much of each. But it is easy to say that an unsure society is not one ready to resume a carefree spending profile. And keep in mind that guns are not cheap – a basic rifle or shotgun will run $300 or more.
Much of the same point applies to the recent surge in demand for silver coins. From a monthly sales run rate of less than 1 million coins, the U.S. Mint now pushes out close to 3 million coins a month, and dealers would clearly like to have more. As with guns, silver coins are not cheap - +$30/piece, or +$600 for a roll of 20. I suspect much of this demand stems from gold’s steady price move higher and the fact that the Mint is not producing as many fractional ounce gold coins as it once did. That means people with less than $1,400 to spend on precious metals coins migrate to silver. That is born out in the decline in Google searches for “Gold Coins” as prices there spiked in 2010. Bottom line – there is a fundamental lack of confidence among enough people in the population as to the long term soundness of the dollar.
We’ll close out on a few positive points and one real problem.
- Workers are quitting more often now, according to the underappreciated but highly useful BLS JOLTS data. Almost half of all separations from an employer are now the employee’s idea, rather than a layoff. That dovetails with the recent rise in consumer confidence, as the attached chart highlights.
- Mutual fund flows into U.S. stock funds had a positive week, ending 1/12/11. It has been a long dry spell here – ever since May 2010 – so perhaps investors are finally reengaging with domestic equities as they start contributing to 401(k)s in the New Year.
- Food inflation could be a very large, very nasty problem. The Dept of Agriculture’s “Prices Received” data shows that “All Farm” prices are back to where they were in 2007.
And all the non-government originating charts that's fit to print:
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and Equity Mutual Fund Flows:
Food stamp participation and gold coin sales
Silver coin sales, Prices Received, and NCIS Background Checks
Pickup truck sales and Consumer confidence
Google Queries: "Buy a Gun", "Buy Ammunition", "Food Stamps", "Gold Coins", Gallup consumer spending.
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Look into AR10's too. Rock River Arms being my personal favorite, LAR-8, with holosites and white phosphor NV
I always liked you... but not until today did I know you really so much better...
.308 BITCHEZ!!!
DPMS LR-308 Panther Carbine 175 grain FMJBT
I too, have to give this rifle a huge thumbs up.
All their smokesticks are GOOD TO GO.
Using a AP4, or 18", I would not waste 175's, 168's will do as well.
The 24" SS prone, yeah, 175's, good to a K.
I agree. I like to shoot 147 gr mil specs with the LR-308.
Here's some decent shooting shit that's packaged REALLY WELL for doomsday. Without really trying too hard (over the hood of a pickup) I was getting 11/2" out of it. Had one bad flyer, no malfunctions out of about 80 rounds.
http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/cb/200-rds-308-cal-147-gr-fmj-ammo.aspx?a=604946
I'm a fan too - but increasingly leaning on 12 gauge slugs to provide stopping power against vehicles. Something about that 1&1/8 oz. of lead moving downrange has a way of putting big holes in things.
Hk-91 rock solid .308 up close or 500 yds..
Real HK 91, yeah rock solid, 500 a tad short, it will do far better.
Even the better PTR's are a good gun, have to get the right serial number.. And yeah 500+, my eyes 3-500 is about it..
+870 w/ reddot
http://www.opticsplanet.net/eotech-mpo-ii-exps3-4-holosight-with-g23-3x-magnifier.html
Definite coolness factor but for a grand I'd rather buy some silver or an LCP for the wife.
you said red dot.. I am just trying to help out Bro!
you did and that looks like a nice piece just out of my price range.
Unless your wife is a shooter, please consider LCR instead of LCP. And unless she is planning for deep concealment carry, fuck the LC platforn and go to SP-101.
Thanks for the tip I'll check it out. I'll have to see if I can get it in pink though... j/k. She already has a Colt .45 1911 which is beautiful but the bullets are so expensive and it's a bit large for her size (other than the grip of course which is kinda narrow for a mans hands) It was a gift from her dad.
Honestly, look at the Ruger SP 101. .357 (she can shoot .38 special, sorry if I'm treating you like Mr. Rogers Neighborhood).
It's a 5 shot, .357 that's small to mid sized, but SOLID. It's small enough to carry in a purse or keep in the glove box, but is the real deal when on your hip or in your hand.
I have an LCP BTW, and think it's a fine pistol for it's place, but isn't one to be an a) primary gun, or b) for someone who isn't "eyes closed" comfortable around weapons of all types.
Love my DPMS 308 with ACOG :)
Oh God, not this crap debate again. Best advice: buy or rent them both on a range and shoot what is the most accurate and comfortable. The idea that you won't maintain the weapon your life depends on and this is your buying criteria is ludicrous.
a balanced breakfast is an important part of anyones day...
SilverRhino
"Oh God, not this crap debate again. Best advice:"
Use what is at hand, learn to improvise. Then you always have a weapon.
Don't be a hater, this is at least fun..
Silver,
While I agree w/your advice on picking the right set up, I FIRMLY disagree about maintaining.
It really depends on what system your hogging.
Give be a Rem 700 Bolt, HB,SS, and a Glock, add an AR, and maintenance is maybe a shot of oil/grease, every 600 rds (Bolt), the other 2, every 2000k rds.+/-.
My lessons are ones I picked up overseas. If you are going to depend on it to save your life, KEEP IT CLEAN.
Condom over the barrel; band-aid on the port.
Once you finish using it to defend your life, CLEAN IT.
Of course I'm pretty anal retentive about that stuff. Oh well. :-)
don't forget Springfield M1A, and the 12ga pump
Left out the real deal, a VERY good bolt action,HB, with GOOD optics in the 3-15x Variable power ranges, and make sure you have at least 35-40 MOA of Elevation left AFTER mounting and zeroing.(this keeps you in the .308 family), and good to 1000yds,if you train with it.(looking at approx $800 for a decent rig,$3500.00 for a good one.
SA Semi, good to approx 800,(will make 1k, but very hard on it, and handloads a must) but, 600-700 is best with very decent ammo.
No scope,learn the mechanicals, and get the NM model w/ SS tube.
Or, Dump the SA Idea, and pick up a AR, 15-20 mags, and a couple of K rounds.(slap an EO Tech on it), and your way ahead on price,parts,and mags.$$$$$$$$$$ wise, and longevity.
Oh boy. Here we go.
M1A/M14 for rifle.
Shotgun for home defense. You can get some cheapo Mossberg 500 with 2 barrels - one short for home defense and a longer one for bird hunting.
Owning firearms is not enough. You have to drill.
Seek out a marksmanship clinic.
http://www.appleseedinfo.org/
water... power... and food... medicine... PM's.... gas up everything... the list is long for sure..
agreed. If you are a good shot and don't freak out under stress just about any weapon will get you through. If you don't practice and don't have some inkling in your mind how things might go down, then it won't matter if you have the 40 caliber double stack with five extra clips tied to your waist.
My Father... Marine
My Fathers 6 Borthers... Marine(s).
My Mother's Brother(s)... Recondo and Navy Intel retired all with more brass in the ass than needed.
Guns are tools, but I do understand for most this is not the case.
JW n FL
"Guns are tools, but I do understand for most this is not the case."
Here they represent the giant penis. Just like how people grow big hairy balls on the internet.
We all know when those jack booted thugs come kicking in your door those balls will deflate faster than the piss running down the legs.
Oh well, eventually everyone needs to learn the truth about themselves. Too damn bad it usually comes in a make or break situation.
Gully Foyle,
well gully, wifey pissed and no pussy for you lately?
if by the "jack boot"? you mean the Fed's? want to see me.. they can walk down the fucking hall to my office and make a fucking appointment... like they always do.
Thanks for Playing, JW
How many times can that happen to innocents before Mr. Jack boots is peeing down his leg? Not saying I would frighten anyone, but surely some vet will have enough at some point.
I don't want no teenage queen;
I just want my M14
lol, I grew up on them... great gun... never a f2f for me...
But... SOCOM rules all buddy, parts and ammo baby!
.233 is great with the right ammo.. got a class 3? then the FED's will take you to Jail.
.308... solves all those issues, legally.
AK? cheap... and available... great dirt gun, but here in america we do make some very nice guns..
guns you wont find but if you do, buy... price wise it will hurt...
H & K 417... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heckler_%26_Koch_HK417
Sig 716.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIG_716
Both are sold out, private party / dealers only will have them and know what they are worth..
or... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FN_SCAR
finding magazines for the SCAR will take and act of God, after market and / or a truck load of cash to secure.
if this is your first gun(s)...
a shotgun for the house... pumps work... look for good ammo. or.. if you can find an M-4 Benelli.. rock it.
a hand gun for your person.. best hand gun made, bar none.. http://www.fnhusa.com/le/products/firearms/family.asp?fid=FNF003&gid=FNG001
and the above is for crowd control, if need be to protect your loved ones...
God Bless us all!
this is an old argument, but the m14 requires a lot of maintenance and still jams easily if not thoroughly maintained. A peasant army and a lay citizen is better off with an ak47. Mine have never jammed and I never clean them and I treat them like shit. They are cheap too. Ammunition is cheap. The difference between a 223 and 7.62 X 39 is virtually non existent for the every day riot or typical teotwawki event. In fact in south america where I used to hang out people were very experienced with riots. They didn't even bother to load their shotguns with real ammo. They loaded with rock salt. Just the noise alone and an angry guy with a shotgun chasing you is enough to cause most rioters to run. If you kill someone you would probably go to jail. Home deffense for the average person a 9 mm glock. Get the style you like. If you are totally experienced with weaponry then knock yourself out with an m14 clone with a red dot sight, an fn fal or springfield mlA in 308. It will shoot right through cars and several walls if your opponent is foolish enough to take such weak cover. In a close in home environment you can't beat the 9 mm. I love the 45 personally but I love to shoot the biggies and never flinch. I would be just as happy with a 9 mm. a 20 gauge shotgun is just fine if you don't have experience with a 12. but it's uses are somewhat limited. a pistol is usually fine for home defense or a underfold ak47 if you think the guy might be wearing some level 3a body armor. However I never understood why the terrorists in Iraq didn't use shotguns against our soldiers in the up close and personal, inside the building encounters.. Face shields are very weak and buckshot to the face will stop even the most well armored individual.If only one piece of buckshot hits the guy in the face it will probably break the face plate and he is out of the fight even if injuries are not life threatening. Always use the expensive steel shot and shoot at the face if the guy is all armored up.
the high quality steel bird shot ref'd above is seasonal... so you will not find it in stock in some places...
Black Cloud.. http://www.blackcloudammo.com/
Hevi Shot... http://www.hevishot.com/
can a will defeat almost anything anyone can throw at you, with regard to bodyarmor.
the plain and simple facts are, the bad guys... know what works and share info.. they are as well armed in some cases as the Police Departments... be prepared for bad guys, if you have nice stuff... with the Police Forces being cut in half around the Country... providing protection for yourself or loved ones should be a priority..
"this is an old argument, but the m14 requires a lot of maintenance and still jams easily if not thoroughly maintained." Stoner's design of gas impingement is so very last decade...
every .308 I noted is a piston variant.
HK-91 so much simpler, fluted chamber always yanks em'
+1000 to be fur sure fur sure use a HK-91
Typo...substitute m16 in every.place i.said m14
"Always use the expensive steel shot and shoot at the face if the guy is all armored up."
Good post and good advice here with your last statement.
R & D in the design of full body armor is, as I'm sure you're aware, continuously evolving. Many SWAT teams now have groin plates issued as standard gear.
For many years, the conventional wisdom towards the circumvention of body armor has been to go for the head shot or the upper leg/groin area for rapid femoral exsanguination.
(As a side note, have you ever heard of the "Mozambique Technique"?)
Always keep it clean, regardless of the action. Just be gentle with the muzzle crown.
"This is my rifle. There are many like it, but this one is mine. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life. Without me my rifle is useless. Without my rifle, I am useless. I must fire my rifle true. I must shoot straighter than the enemy who is trying to kill me. I must shoot him before he shoots me. I will. My rifle and I know that what counts in war is not the rounds we fire, the noise of our burst, or the smoke we make. We know that it is the hits that count. We will hit.
My rifle is human, even as I am human, because it is my life. Thus, I will learn it as a brother. I will learn its weaknesses, its strengths, its parts, its accessories, its sights and its barrel. I will keep my rifle clean and ready, even as I am clean and ready. We will become part of each other.
Before God I swear this creed. My rifle and I are the defenders of my country. We are the masters of our enemy. We are the saviors of my life.
So be it, until victory is America's and there is no enemy."
http://www.usmcpress.com/heritage/marine_corps_rifleman's_creed.htm
Beautiful.
Why steel instead of lead? Please explain.
Home Defense Newb
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullet
(D) Velocity:
The reason that most lead shot hunting game loads average around 1350 fps on the high velocity side down to 1150 fps on the low velocity side is the fact that lead shot will deform easily and blow patterns.
Steel shot has a very distinct advantage here, it is very hard and the pellets or shot will not deform at all so the velocity can increase without shot deformation and blowing patterns. Steel shot hunting loads average 1500 fps on the high velocity side and down to 1265 on the low velocity side.
http://www.gunnersden.com/index.htm.steelvslead.html
&...
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=steel%20ammo%20body%20armor&aq=&aqi=&aql=&oq=&pbx=1&fp=f71c9d2b3ccf4dd5&pf=p&pdl=3000
Body armor comes in levels... 1 thru 5(ish) 4(a) (b) and so on...
to defeat most readily (gangsta, available) level 2 / 3... steel will work well.
1800fps doesnt hurt either.
I'd also agree with the idea that in a home situation, the sound of a shotgun being pumped is enough to put the fear into a less determined attacker.
look porkchop... you seem ok to me so dont be a fag..
if someone is in your house, kill them... becuase how will you know until its to late, whether they are serious or not?
just trying to help.. how many of your Finest are out of work? how much gold do you have at the house? how much do you talk about how stupid people are for not having gold in public? not that you mean too, mind you... but who is listening... if you have nice shit, if you love your family... be a fucking boyscout.
Kinda rough on Doc...but your right...they're in your house, kill them.
As you know, Fla. has what is called the Castle Law now.
Before it was enacted, a homeowner involved in a shooting on their own property would have to prove he or she was in fear for their life.
This put the onus on the homeowner in court if a shooting happened (instead of the scumbag, or their next of kin, who just crawled through your window or kicked down your door) that you did not have the "opportunity" to run away, get out of his/their way somehow.
Not anymore.
We have a saying around my neck of the woods...if you come over my fence your soul may belong to Jesus but your ass belongs to me. The locals always abided by the saying (call before coming over, honk the car horn if just dropping by and if a stranger, stay in your car until someone sees you)...now everyone in the state is aware of it...it makes people more, respectful of another's life & property.
Everyone should examine their own state laws on this topic. If it's not fair to the homeowner, lobby to change them.
the last thing a person that comes in my house.. un-invited should worry about are the guns... my brain is way more dangerous than any gun could ever be in anyone’s hands...
the castle law here... sure for how many years now? long time... but that did not come into play until enough good people shot enough bad people and got blamed for defending themselves in their own homes / cars and / or other..
the tuff call / case will be when some jerk off with a questionable probable cause affidavit shows up at the door with a no knock and gets half his team killed and some poor old fart dies along with them thinking they where the boogie men...
it will be rolled back, as soon as law enforcement has 1 set back that is law enforcements fault, same shit different day. cops vote, sheepeople dont.
as for being ruff on doc, I want doc to live Bro... doc is in fight club with us... not against us. better tuff luv now than a bullet in the face later.
It's all good.
Like I mentioned before, we have this situation where the law here in Canada expects you to call the police and then wait patiently for them to show up, whilst you, oh I don't know, perhaps offer the burglar some tea. If you defend yourself with a weapon, you're likely to end up in jail along with the attacker.
I've had little experience with rifles. I've fired a few with friends, but didn't have them around growing up.
If I were to acquire one, I'm definitely the type to get proper training and practice, because I'm not interested in doing something stupid due to lack of knowledge. There are definitely more options open to US Citizens when it comes to choosing models. I'd probably buy according to how I would anything else, go for the best quality I can afford, but is durable and simple.
I won't lie though. In a situation like that, I'd probably be shitting bricks.
Look... My ex is a dual.. Canada / US person... so I hate you becuase of her.. and luv you all at the same time...
so with that in mind, you need something you can control... shotguns with bird shoot.. like above... will cover a good amount of space and pattern.. or the little bb's spread out into a pattern larger than a normal bullet..
Plainly, you get good coverage and a lot of badass for your buck...
Next, you shoot until you can manage head shoots with slugs at 25 yards... no sights.. then you can relax and enjoy shooting..
the more you shoot... the better you will be if you ever need it... if you dont train and go back after training to shoot.. you will simply not be as good as you could have been in a bad situation.. you will find the range is a good place to meet people and hang out.
Just practice... and have fun with it man..
as for shitting bricks.. everyone does over something.. you might do a LOT better than you think after you have some practice time in.. I know you would do a LOT better, let me say it that way.
Are you near Vernon?
Be well Porky my best to you and yours, JW
Some good info here, some not smart.
In house, out, makes no difference, NEVER, I repeat NEVER tell the LE you shot to KILL.
You shot to stop the THREAT.
Also, just as important, NEVER talk to any LE, without COUNSEL present, NEVER.
If you do, its on your ass.
great point... LE gets a 24 hour cooling off period... consider yourself LE and dont say shit for 24 hours...
++++
If your conceal carry instructor doesn't BEAT this into your head you should ask for a refund.
[...Also, just as important, NEVER talk to any LE, without COUNSEL present, NEVER.]---DosZap
Good post, DosZap. Thanks for adding that info.
(However, if conditions degrade to the point where there is no LE....)
Really though, be careful out there folks. When things go bump in the night, the adrenaline rushes, and your heart feels like it's about to burst out of your rib cage, don't forget to breath. Account for all family members inside your home. As for intruders, for goodness sakes, don't gun down ol' uncle Jesse who just managed to avoid after-dark rioters and looters on his way to your house where he hoped to find a safe place. Remember, you gave him a key to your house---just in case? Breath.
If it ain't uncle Jesse, well, that IS another matter.
Incidentally, nice to see the 2nd Amendment is alive and well here at ZH.
that is so true. Failure to identify the target is the biggest risk of all. Why even go downstairs when things go bump in the night? Why not just call 911 and barricade your door? Relax and take the time to put on your body armor and your night vision as you cut the circuit breaker. Don't get in a big hurry. Patience is a virtue!
Miranda: anything you say can and will be used
against you. The second part of that: Nothing you
say will be used for you...
agreed. I find that people who don't attend to other areas of health safety and security and rely on simple answers are the ones most likely to get in trouble with a gun. If you are so paranoid that you are putting your hand on your gun every time someone pulls up in your driveway then you either need more pussy or professional help. I'm not sure which.
LOL yeah when I first moved to Texas I rented until I found my house. There was a storm that damaged the roof and the insurance guy was dumb enough to pull up the drive, open the gate and come up to the house. Imagine his surprise when I walked out on the porch looking at him through my scope - quickest damage appraisal ever.
Loaded and ready never makes a sound.
You couldn't be more wrong.
top,
agree with the majority of your post, just one exception, 9mm-.45ACP, round for round, best ammo for each available.
I will take the 9mm anytime.The stats on OS COM kills is less than 1-2% difference, and the 9mm is far more controllable, and holds a lot more rounds, a lot.
Other n that, the ACP is still King for Americas love affair.
Both are ubiquitous.
Sorry I have 2 9mm's and found the HK45 full size tactical better - I solved the ammo capacity problem by swapping the 12 round clip for a 20 round extended mag.
I have a .45 and a 9mm and a .357mag. All are ok
but what stays loaded in my house is a model 870
Remington with 00 buck.
You know your stuff...an LWRC REPR is nice, too. High quality 308 and recommend the 18 or 20 inch barrel.
fail... sr25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SR-25 class of gun...
i would take an h and k 417 1st... when that kind of money changes hands... better to have in theatre, operational and fire proven gear.
101st has had the 417 and maybe some marines as well... no problems, God Bless them all!
JW,
Agreed, SR way overated, and prone to failure.
417 has yet to take a dump.
Jw,
.233 is great with the right ammo.. got a class 3? then the FED's will take you to Jail.( Not if your papered).
finding magazines for the SCAR will take and act of God, after market and / or a truck load of cash to secure.
PMAG are making them,(interchange w/several platforms) and I think BNELLS has em in stk, if not ck w/PMAG.
Dos,
God Bless ya for sharing... but .308... magpul doesnt make one...
H and K... No.
Sig??
SCAR... No.
Not sure I'm following you correctly, but I have one or twelve magpul, PMAGS in .308.
http://www.brownells.com/.aspx/pid=31819/Product/AR_STYLE__308_PMAG_POLYMER_MAGAZINE
the emag will not work in an H and K 417.. http://world.guns.ru/assault/de/hk-417-e.html
the emag will not work in a SCAR H.. both of which are .308's... they dont fit.
in the 556 SCAR the emag works... from magpul.... http://world.guns.ru/assault/be/fn-scar-e.html
Gotcha.. Need to slow down and read a little more closely.
AK. I have done extensive testing of both platforms including tissue damage testing (on a dead pig) of both cartridges. The 7.62 x 39 cartridge is a far superior round at self defense ranges (under 200 yards). There are many AK platforms out there, Yugoslavian versions been my favorite, that can be had from 500 - 1200 FRNs. Ammunition is back on the plentiful side (checking www.cheaperthandirt.com 500rnds will set you back 100Frn's).
The complaints on accuracy are due to two factors. Poor craftsmanship on mostly Chinese AKs (stay away from Norinco and WASRs) and poor training. Bad Guys, specially in the ME, tend to not aim. Hmm, perhaps that has something to do with the poor accuracy reported?
I can easily get minute of man (paper plate shots) groups at 100 yards all day long.
The 7.63 x 39 also displays much better penetration. Extensive testing done by the Marines show 7.62 x 39 cutting right thru most residential and automotive surfaces.
For my money, I own AKs.
AK Pistols? lol
Original question was M-4 vs. AK
Yes:
http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=213103888
fine purist... m-4 BCM...
ak.. milled reciever...
and for the pistol... they are tuff in auto form to handle... and you know how hot they get up front / top... grab hold... enjoy Brother! stay safe.
JW, I actually own a DRACO like the one pictured. It has seen the range a couple of times, but it is not my battle rifle. I bought it with the intention of converting it to an SBR eventually. The 7.62 cartridge only looses about 50 feet per second out of the shorter 12.5 inch barrel so in essence its a rifle cartridge in a very big pistol platform.
LLC or Trust for your sbr? storage? dont get caught cleaning it, cause ummmm... i am sure you know what i mean. FFL items are such a pain in the ass any more...
if you are going that far buy a seer from someone... great investment, cant print new seers.
Trust. Safe. Private Range. ;-)
SEER??? Not familiar with that term.
sear.. sorry spelling b champ!
lookie at this safe... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywBMdSaXJnU
gun room... described as a gun room.. with a safe in your trust language... reread your trust and check, please bro?
"The 7.62 x 39 cartridge is a far superior round at self defense ranges (under 200 yards)."
1. Self defense range, in the cops 'n lawyers sense, is more like 7 yards, not 200.
2. I don't think anyone here is talking about "self defense", except in the most abstract sense of the word.
A good, modern AR-15 platform with good ammo in 5.56mm will outperform the AKM clone in 7.62x39 in virtually every category except residential building material penetration and shooting at targets in soft skinned vehicles. It is faster, more accurate, easier to service, easier to find parts, magazines, and ammo for.
But it's also outside of most people's budget, so they'd be better served with an AKM copy or an SKS.
milled reciever, not stamped... sure.
Yes, that is why I daily carry a Glock, my ak wont fit in my hip holster. But the original question was AR vs AK. Both are rifles designed for engagements far above 7 yards. I wanted to limit the discussion to a realistic range that could be found during a Katrina type scenario. If range is not considered, the AR provides better acccuracy at longer ranges. Of course, beyond 200 yards, you should really consider 7.62 x 51 (.308) or one of the other hunting cartridges with 30.06 been a good choice.
Hmm...I was. And unless the person asking the original AR vs. AK question had offensive operations (e.g. snipping) in mind, we are all talking about self defense.
Since the only categories you mention are speed, accuracy, ease of service, ease of finding parts, magazines and ammo, I will address those.
Dont really know what you mean by faster. Faster projectile? Faster at target acquisition? faster at follow up shots?
More accurate. I have shot both platforms extensively. I carried an issued AR for many years. For the purpose of killing other human beings, the AR and AK demonstrate similar accuracy under 200 meters. As long as I can hit you in the upper chest cavity or if necessary on the head, it is a good hit. Minute of angle considerations are for snippers and paper ranges.
Easier to service. Both weapons are relatively easy to service by the operator. The AK takes a lot less preventive maintenance and cleaning that the AR. This is without question and a function of design. The AK can be disassembled without tools by a one armed man in the dark, it is that simple. it breaks down to 5 basic parts and there are no small parts to loose. It is so simple a caveman could do it. The AR is also simple to maintain and, with proper training, can also be quickly disassembled. It does require more cleaning and maintenance to keep it running properly.
Easier to find parts, mags and ammo. Never had a problem finding parts, mags or ammo for either. If you mean tacticool accessories, yes, the AR has more of those. AK does not need them. It is a troglodyte rifle. That is why its so effective and used the world over.
For me, the effectiveness of the projectile is the key. The 7.62 projectile is heavier, penetrates deeper and does more damage than the 5.56mm. That is why the military and LEO have been experimenting with 6.8mm, 6.5mm grendel, etc. It is also why the 55gr round has been replaced by the 62gr and above rounds. The 5.56mm is not as effective because it has less mass, therefore less energy transferred to the target. Any projectile needs to break bone on its way in (ribcage, skull or spinal column). The heavier the bullet, the better bone breaking capabilities. Not knocking the 5.56mm. But the question of AR vs AK comes down to projectiles and how they behave once it hits human tissue.
But, to each its own. I know both rifles/cartridges and mine is an AK.
creedmoor is nice.. just sayin! lol
I forgot 10 times now... cause I like you... not out of dis-respect...
Thank You for your service.
Sorry but if TSHTF then you better have both because I guarantee (unless the Russians or Chinese invade) that AK ammo will become scarce long before 223 does. Good thing is that AK's are cheaper to buy than a good AR
Well, it really depends on what you perceive at the possible scenario for the coming storm. If you are dealing with Zombieland sure, you are going to need to constantly find more ammo. If you are dealing with a high crime situation (say, Juarez) or a bug out situation then 1-2K rounds per gun is a very achievable goal. If you believe that you will need much more than that, buy reloading equipment and learn to reload. You can set up a reloading station with enough supplies for 10K rounds for about the price of a couple of rifles.
How do you plan to resupply your AR? Break into the local police station/gun shop and take it? And you don't think that the local police force / gun store owner wouldnt object to your plan?
For the record: FBI stats. Average gunfight =
3 shots. Average distance under 30 feet.
Preferred weapon: 12 ga shotgun with 00 buckshot.
For the states, it could be a toss up. The ar 15 variety does operate ok if you keep it cleaned and of course it does not like deserts like Iraq, nor jungles like Vietman, but American city streets, well why not, I think it would be ok.
Wet run AR's don't especially like the arctic weather we get in some of our northern climes. I've been playing with a piston format for a couple of winters, and I like it. A LOT. Sort of gives you the best of both worlds as far as the AK/AR platform debate goes.
Also worth considering that if you want to stay away from D.I. AR platform but want to stay with 5.56 think about a 580 series Mini-14.
you have a POF yet? http://www.pof-usa.com/ you will after watching this shit!
Good vid, thanx for that. Too bad I really didn't want more input to factor in with deciding my next step. Right now, I have DPMS for DI platform, and have a Ruger SR556 for Piston. I really like the SR. Will never walk away from DI, simply because of availability, but trying to decide whether to double down on SR556. Here is what I know after somewhere north of 3500 rnds.
-Carrier tilt/ tube wear appeared early, but settled out after 1000 rounds or so and hasn't gotten any worse. (at least noticeably.
-Rifle shoots sub MOA with good .223 Federal Ammo and a lead sled. Shoots comfortably MOA with most mix bag better quality 5.56. (occasinal flyer wrecking 5 shot groups, you get the idea) New trigger would help immensely, but hardly necessary for battle rifle
-Shoots CLEAN. Even with 1-200 rounds of shit ammo you could run a bore snake through and clean the piston and walk away.
-Fucker is heavy. With optics and loaded 30 rnd. is over 12 pounds. To anyone who doesn't get what a twelve pound rifle means, trust me. It's too Goddamn much. Fine for posting, not great for carrying.
- I have shot this rifle in temps from ninety above to forty below zero (not figuring wind chill). In temps colder than -10, I have had some short stroking issues, with .223 Hornady ammo. This was solved by adjusting the piston. I have had zero issues with 5.56, mainly M855.
-The SR556 comes decked with Troy rails and sights. The Troy battle sights are excellent. For people who shy away from the $1400 price tag, keep in mind that those sights are worth a couple hundred alone. The rails covers and the collapsible M4 stock are LOUD AS HELL in cold weather. After my first trip out coyote hunting with it, it was ended up covered with strips of hockey tape all over it to shut it up. (Don't have much to compare it with, as you will not find many sub 20 below zero field reviews out there).
I either need to go all in on this platform or sell and start over. I am leary of only having one piston AR. I don't want to completely back to DI, but am kind of not willing to spend any more on a piston platform when I consider redundancy a nedessity.
you can pick up a trigger for $230 buck and self tune that fucker to whatever you want...
ruger is a good company...
the pof I linked you.. the second video was the one I was trying to get to you not the first gay big optic one, sorry...
POF head guy is a retired NASA P.E. Systems Expert.... read this and you will understand why 2k or 1800 is worth it... http://www.pof-usa.net/pdf_files/SWATMAG_POF_Aug10.pdf
http://forum.lwrci.com/newforum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3256
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSpi8R0WoY0&feature=related
Class 3 of Texas.. http://www.class3weapons.com/ has some nice ones.. but they go fucking quick.. price wise I have not found any better place to buy.
I hope this helps...
MOA is plenty good on any 5.56 rifle as far as I'm concerned. If I need better than that, I'm shooting a bolt or falling block not an auto anyway.
Don't worry. I waited for and watched the second vid. I give you more credit than to spam me. Hell, after all weren't you the one who explained to me that I was going to watch my wife get gang raped when TSHTF? Not sure what it was at the time that I said to make you think I was too dumb to know which end of the tube the round comes out..... I figured you would have something better to offer than how big fat optics were going to fit on the rail of a battle rile.
The Ruger is.......... okay. You ever get a feeling? Other than a couple of short strokes it's never effed up but TWICE I've had it bagged up to trade it off. Not sure.
you will forgive me for my more colorful days.. I am sure Mrs. Copper is a wonderful woman..
I do try to get people to look at an uglier version of the world than they are comfortable with so that they may in fact be better prepared... you should feel good if I pucnhed you... that means I didnt think you couldnt handle it..
as for the ruger... I have heard nothing but good things... the normal stutter, in any un-polished gun.. can be fixxed with some polish and a dremel... if you have wear? abnormal? you said 1k nothing to crazy... if it aint broke dont fix it. as a primary weapon, for the best of all worlds..
What kind of ammo? not wolf? nothing in a can right? when it stutters? think now... before saying yay or nay.
SCAR H .308 http://fnforum.net/wts-scar-17s-nib-black-2575-t24933.html $2575... ship to a FFL only. Black.
SOCOM and every operator in the world aint wrong..
or go H and K... for $10,000 plus... either way.
When it stuttered, it was shooting Hornady .223. It did it on two seperate occasions with different mags. I am sure about the mags, because whenever I have an FTF I mark the mag. More importantly, it was sub zero both times. I kicked the piston up a notch and didn't have any more trouble.
I've never had any problem with the multitudes of 5.56 I've shot. Not a fan of steel cased ammo. I would buy it if it was all there was, but as readily available as quality stuff is.....
forgive me Cooper for this one... more for info purposes for everyone else...
Bullets 50 grain...55 grain... that run hot.. fast... and or jacketed... foul things becase of the amount of powder pushing those little hot rounds down range.
so, if using a piston driven variant... beaware and tune your valve as needed..
you know this shit already cooper.. you having some fun with me?
They obviously have not purchased an ASE from the mint or dealer lately. $300 new firearm, single shot I assume.
Apologize in advance over the thread hijack, but Mish yesterday had a good article explaining the difference between the debt and budget deficit numbers, citing zh in the process...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/budget-deficit-accounting-fraud-and-off.html
Zerohedge is blog subject prep for Mish Shedlock. :)
Absolutely, I have been reading that in his posts for some time now, today proved it. Not a big mish fan, but when he's right, he's right...
He delivered the pizza this time that's for damn sure.
Castle Law... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle_doctrine
A Castle Doctrine (also known as a Castle Law or a Defense of Habitation Law) is an American legal doctrine claimed by advocates to arise from English Common Law[1] that designates one's place of residence (or, in some states, any place legally occupied, such as one's car or place of work) as a place in which one enjoys protection from illegal trespassing and violent attack. It then goes on to give a person the legal right to use deadly force to defend that place (his/her "castle"), and/or any other innocent persons legally inside it, from violent attack or an intrusion which may lead to violent attack. In a legal context, therefore, use of deadly force which actually results in death may be defended as justifiable homicide under the Castle Doctrine.
Castle Doctrines are legislated by state, and not all states in the US have a Castle Doctrine law. The term "Make My Day Law" comes from the landmark 1985 Colorado statute that protects people from any criminal charge or civil suit if they use force – including deadly force – against an invader of the home.[2] The law's nickname is a reference to a line uttered by Clint Eastwood's character Harry Callahan in the 1983 film Sudden Impact, "Go ahead, make my day." It is sometimes considered derogatory as it implies those who assert the Castle Doctrine defense somehow wanted to have to shoot their assailant. More pejorative is the term "Shoot The Milkman Law", sometimes used by gun-control advocates to illustrate the potential abuses of the law in cases involving mistake of fact as to the identity or intentions of the person shot.
Didn't see this post...said same up above...junk myself ;-)
bro no worries!
Geez...a few weeks of coverage of riots around the world and suddenly people get fearful enough to reach for a piece.
Bustin Caps Bitchez!!!
I had them when things were calm and I will have them when life is exciting. I have a motorcycle helmet too, it stays on a hook until it is time for it to do its job..
Gun ownership should be mandatory.
No... Missle Launcher ownership should be mandatory...
Born with...hahaha
and a tank drivers license.
Because with good training with those, parking is a bitch.
Here ya go SD...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msPrOIAVUZo
@ JW and everyone else:
RPGs bitchez!
Congress would be less likely to spend money the way they do.. if we had predator drones with hell fires, that could be launched everytime they wanted to spend more of our money.
This is real:
http://www.rense.com/general9/gunlaw.htm
Glad to see more folks are taking their Second Amendment responsibility more seriously.
James Madison would expect it.
This aint ur daddys recession. people are miffed, pissed and broke.
nobody knows who to blame. MSM loves to pit right vs left, but until the banksters accept the blame we will be stuck right here and things will only get worse.
miffed pissed and broke people don't crash markets. Most never had any significant financial investments anyway. It doesn't really matter what miffed pissed off and broke people think as long as there aren't too many of them, and so far the numbers are fairly low.
Correct...a point I have been trying to make over and over. This is about the system now being devoid of trust. Banking IS A TRUST. Capital will not form aain until folk see those that are guilty of mortgage fraud and market manipulation removed from the system. CAPITAL WILL NOT FORM...which means only more Bernanke counterfeiting...ending in a Banana Republic Tree.
And yet the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street continues to act as if it is business as usual. It won't work.
Houston...we need pink slips.
the trouble with following indicators that are not validated and may not "indicate" anything yet is that you chase a lot of red herrings. The more the democrats talk about limiting magazine capacity the more people are going to run out and buy guns. Eric holder started a massive gun purchasing program by saying that "of course" they were going to regulate assault weapons. Obama shut him up quickly but it was too late. Your gun number probably shoots up after any high profile shooting as people stock up in fear of purchase restriction, or like me, as investment opportunities in high capacity clips. Do you need any? Hysteria is usually a lagging indicator if not a contrary indicator. This alternative data is interesting to look at, but I wouldn't be making investment decisions on it. I would follow the machines.
It would be nice to see a chart that quantifies and tracks ammunition sales.
LOL,that would be interesting, esp if it started on Clittons 1st watch, and ran thru today.
I would safely say, since '94-'10,at least 200-300 Trillion rounds, all cals.
I believe the Glock is the gun everyone is panic buying. All the pretty guns mentioned here are for gun-nuts.
Read this really funny/sad article yesterday.... the angry, 2,000 pound, sofa-wedged, remote master, gaming, sloppy, TV addicted, gun toting, mis-informed, misogynistic, xenophobic, racist white american getting angry at th estate of the world and his potential loss of "comfort". Achingly funny actually.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/accidental-lives/
I didn't buy a glock last week... instead I bought a Springfield XDM... holds a hell of a lot of ammo and I like the feel a bit more than a Glock 19....
Hmmmmm.....
Meanwhile, here is the link to article I was talking about...
http://rense.com/general92/armchair.htm
ORI
Guns bore me. Where can I get my hands on a bazooka rocket lauchner. The kind that makes possible knocking pesky black helicopters from the sky down to ground level. Who knows, maybe in the crushed remnants of the chopper are the fried bones of some central banker, the real prize.
Buy something that can take out the drones soon to be patrolling neighborhoods in every city. We go to war to perfect the weapons and tactics that are soon used on our own in the name of safer streets and crime prevention, drug enforcement, prostitution, illegal gambling (unless it's state sanctioned of course - buy those lotto tickets folks, the board of education depends on it). Fuck it. I say start to google on "how to shoot down moving objects overhead". Google how to buy two guns an so on. Just don't be surprised at the number of unmarked vehicles that start showing on your street. On second thought just eat your fucking big mac and head to best buy to get that much needed 50" flat screen like a good citizen.
Thats why I have lots of 12 gauge birdshot.... its perfect for flying pests....
http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+a+glock&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=...
Go long Kevlar!
like what kind? shock plates? or just level 2 or 3(ish)?
Hey, you know your nabe better than I do...shop accordingly.
4,w/ceramics.
On sale at Wal Murt.
china made chest plates? fuck that shit!
give me steel... the new rubber ones are nice.. if you have the dod number to get them still up and running.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=buy+a+gun,get+a+gun&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
Get a gun is better
http://www.google.com/trends?q=purchase+firearm&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=purchase+gun&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=purchase+gun&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=2008&sort=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=purchase+gun&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=2008&sort=0
Guns in particular and defence as businesses is definitely among the top priorities to invest in.
People and the world will radicalize in response to crisis brought hardships.
Whats everyones feeling on when the shtf? ie April, next year when. I keep waiting and somehow this thing is being propped up? Something has to give.
QE persist dosing the economy with valium until 2012 election brings in fiscal conservative. the Bernank then hits the brakes and SHTF, interests rates rise, interest payments on national debt start escalate, foreclosures skyrocket, wages fall, etc., politicians getting lynched, the whole thing is blamed as a failure of the free market.
Ugh! All this hate speech! There needs to be a law. This internet was clearly a mistake! For that matter, the past 700 years of increasing freedoms have been nothing but a colossal failure!
Back to your land and yokes, serfs!
Screw you, King Vlad! - Gyorgy Dozsa.
Ever hear about the two ambassadors who were sent from Istanbul to seek an audience with Prince Vlad?
They apparently refused/declined to remove their turbans once they were in Vlad's presence. This so angered the prince that he had both ambassadors' turbans nailed to their skulls and then had the bodies shipped back to their Ottoman masters.