ECRI Leading Indicator Continues Dead Cat Bouncing; Is It Too Little Too Late?

The indicator most hated by its creators, the ECRI Leading Indicators index, continues its bounce along the bottom, printing at -9.8% YoY for the week ending August 13 (in absolute terms 122.4, compared to a revised 121.7 from 121.8 prior), compared to -10.3%. In this way the index has once again recaptured the magical threshold of -10%, meaning Achutan et al will be more than happy to claim credit for how their index confirms the double dip is (cause, yes, that's where we are in a best case) is soon ending. Contrary to the index creators' admonitions, the ECRI LI was good enough to predict the collapse of the economy this quarter.

Comments

[Steak]

On this day of superstition and hindenburgs and foreshadowing of doom...let us resolve to eat, drink and live it up while we still have the chance.

Stay up all night tonight...you'll sleep when you're dead

sleep when you die (a playlist): http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=AC5C492890CABEE7

[hedgeless_horseman]

Fish when the fishing is good.

Rest on the lift.

Make hay while the sun shines.

Pay yourself first.

I'd rather be late than un-laid.

Stop and smell the roses, literally.

Finish the bottle.

Tickle-fun-time.

Practice your back float.

[Pamela Anderson]

Short the shit out of the EUR

[Lux Fiat]

Old McTrichet had a piig farm, e-u, e-u, o.....

Ok, disclaimer, I am talking a very small part of my "book".

[Strongbad]

I'm not clear on what this index measures. 

[PierreLegrand]

The ECRI indicator is racist!

Gold and Ammo Bitchez!

[spekulatn]

Great stuff, PierreLegrand.

[rubearish10]

Well, we're all on the edge of our seats, watching and waiting for BDI and ECRI to resume THE PLUNGE! 

[Leo Kolivakis]

"Don't Sell America Short"

-J.P. Morgan

[hedgeless_horseman]

"Why do Greeks always open restaurants that fail?"
--George Chakiris

[firstdivision]

"You cannot blame porn. When I was young, I used to masturbate to Gilligan's Island.” - Ron Jeremy

[iPood]

The non-predictive admonitions of Achutan and Banerji is contradicted by their ECRI publication The Great Recession and Recovery,

This is an index that’s been around for over a quarter of a century, and over that time (shown here) it has correctly predicted every recession and recovery in real-time.

I need to repeat that, over this entire time period, I was present to see each of the correct recession and recoveries calls in real-time, without false signals in between.

http://bit.ly/arBc6u

[Pamela Anderson]

iPood.... you are a good looking avatar!!!

[Cognitive Dissonance]

LOL

A little Visine can clear up that "red eye" problem for both of you.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visine

BTW, bet you didn't know.........

Adverse effects

• Those using Visine Original frequently report stinging and burning upon application.^[1]

• Use of this product can cause a rebound effect causing the redness to worsen. Prolonged use can cause blood vessels to be dilated for an extended period of time. Use should be limited unless specified by a doctor.^{[verification needed]}

• A red eye may often be indicative of more serious underlying ocular condition; simply reducing blood flow to the area won't solve the condition and may even exacerbate symptoms.

• These drops are also not advised for contact lens wearers because decreased blood flow to the surface of the eye will further lower the levels of oxygen available to the eye.^{[verification needed]}

• Visine is not to be used by patients with Glaucoma since the production of more liquids only contributes to the problem of high pressure within the eye.

[Goldenballs]

Ah well we are all Mushrooms,fed shit and kept in the dark   ................   (or the powers that be like to think we are) .....   :)      ..........................................

[Cognitive Dissonance]

ECRI Leading Indicator Continues Dead Cat Bouncing; Is It Too Little Too Late?

Don't be silly Tyler. It's just the pause that refreshes before the final plunge.....er.....push upward to bliss.

http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/06/a-pause-that-refreshes/

From the article.

I had expected this recovery would be faster than it has been. I was wrong.  But I do not think we are anywhere close to proving that a new downturn is imminent, or that the stimulus that was applied in 2009 failed to help the economy.

[WineSorbet]

Wow, the NY Times thinks the stimulas was a good thing.  SHOCKER...

Although my question is, why is it rising?  There must be an explanation even if it is temporary. 

[Lux Fiat]

"The investor must have the picture clearly before him-and we must strongly emphasize this point-that the longer-range outlook is thoroughly promising.  We therefore see no cause for alarm whatever for the investor."  A comment from a large "investment service" on Oct. 28, 1929, per Richard Russell's "The Dow Theory Today".

[Assetman]

Contrary to the index creators' admonitions, the ECRI LI was good enough to predict the collapse of the economy this quarter.

I sort of empathize with the ECRI people, because they put out the WLI for free public comsumption-- and it has worked better than anyone could have imagined.

What they wanted to do was make some subcription $$$$, and one of their so-called "money makers" was going to be the U.S. long-leading index (USLLI).  And now just about every time the WLI is announced, you'll hear Achutan and the ECRI folks say "well, the WLI may say this... but the better predictor is using the USLLI in conjunction with the WLI".  It may or may not be true, but you need to pay for the Long Leading Index and the ECRI analysis to to see if it is, indeed, true. 

But why do that, when the WLI works?

They simply just want to make money... but they've gone about in a bass-akwards, totally inefficient way.  I do feel for them, because they do put out good data... as opposed to the U.S. Gubbmint.

[bank guy in Brussels]

Tyler, do please STOP using that horrid 'dead cat bounce' expression - it's offensive and disturbing.

Companion animals are the beautiful creatures of this world - their love and loyalty puts humans to shame.

Please stop it, you don't need to use such a cruelly sadistic locution.

[Strongbad]

Seriously?

[wang]

dogs I get, but cats???

[Jack H Barnes]

Bank guy in Brussels, I suggest you quit whining about words, and quit surrendering quicker than the French. 

-Internet Tough Guy with a sleepy 5 week old puppy in his lap.

[Dismal Scientist]

what would you prefer ? a rubber kitty bounce ?

'dead cat bounce' is part of the vernacular of finance. nothing more to be said. get over yourself

[ptoemmes]

The cat was already dead before it bounced. 

No live cats were harmed in creating the headline post.

Pete

[Ripped Chunk]

ebay advertising on ZH now! Wooo

[Pamela Anderson]

bank "guy" in Brussels,

Did you already come out of the closet or are you planning on coming out soon? .... just asking, just asking (nothing wrong with it)... I just want to know to be sure that my "feminine sixth sense" still works???

xoxo Pam

[Assetman]

I gather the Belgian Bank Guy would be doubly disturbed by "It's Raining Cats and Dogs", because (a) the distance of the fall; and (b) you add another innocent domesticated animal to the mix.

In other words, Tyler (and in deference to our good friend, the Rev. Jesse Jackson):

Your sadistic locution needs better execution. 

Disturbing, indeed.

[Strongbad]

OK guys, quit beating a dead horse ... about the dead cat ... haha

[Murchadh]

Ha ECRI/BDI starting to move up. Euribor rate starting to move down but they are all false dawns according to TD. Whereas when they started to move down/up it was a sure sign everything is finished. Would hate to see the movements of the last couple of weeks translate into something substantive. Would prob leave as much egg on the faces of the commentators of this site as the rally of 2009.

[firstdivision]

And if they move back down are you going to come back here to praise TD's foresight or spend all your time weeping?

[Murchadh]

Ha foresight or a broken record? Being constantly bearish doesn't indicate intelligence just a need for prozac. Plus anyways I try not to be too dogmatic about things so that if I am wrong I don't have to weep.  unlike the commentators here last year.

[Tipo anónimo]

Let me guess, you nailed the 666 low and doubled your acct. -

Let me be the first to congratulate you.  Now don't lose it on what is about to happen next.  Not just bears get caught pooping in the woods.

[firstdivision]

The BDI is still buzzing from its Red Bull high.  The wings will fall off in 5...4...3...

[Dr. Copper]

A watch pot never boils

[Tipo anónimo]

That is one saying that should be taken out behind the shed and buried.

Ever try it?  It may not be fun, but making money by digging ditches is hard work too.