Empire Manufacturing Beats Expectations As Prices Paid Surge To Two And A Half Year High, Advance Retail Sales Of 0.3%, Below Expectations Of 0.5%

Tyler Durden's picture

The only actual number that matters, is the Empire Index' Prices Paid index, which climbed to a two and a half year high of 45.8, as prices received barely moved. Even the Empire Index itself acknowledges the collapse in margins: "The prices paid index climbed to a two and-a-half-year high in
February, but the measure for prices received was little changed,
suggesting some pressure on profit margins
." New orders and employees both dropped to 11.8 and 3.6, from 12.4 and 8.4 respectively. And, lo and behold, inventories climbed to the highest since April: the hollow growth must continue!

From Empire Report:

The general business conditions index rose 3.5 points to 15.4. The new orders index edged down just slightly, to 11.8. The shipments index retreated 14 points, reversing much of January’s 18-point surge, but remained positive at 11.3. The inventories index continued to climb from its December low, reaching its highest level since April. The index for number of employees fell, but the average workweek measure moved up. The prices paid index climbed to a two and-a-half-year high in February, but the measure for prices received was little changed, suggesting some pressure on profit margins.The forward-looking indexes continued to signal widespread optimism, though to a somewhat  lesser degree than in January. Indexes for expected prices, both paid and received, declined moderately, after reaching multiyear highs last month.

Yet the biggest disappointment came from the advance retail sales which not only missed on every metric, but saw all the January data was revised lower:

  • US Advance Retail Sales in January were 0.3% M/M vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%, Revised lower to 0.5%)
  • US Retail Sales Less Autos in January were 0.3% M/M vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.5%, Revised also lower to 0.3%)
  • US Retail Sales Ex Autos & Gas in January were 0.2% M/M vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%, Revised, where else, lower to 0.1%)

Bottom line - the entire holiday retail season has now been confirmed to be a disaster, despite the propaganda machine spending billions in taxpayer pimp money to dress it up.

Can we start the QE3 talk already?

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slow_roast's picture

Levitation bitchez!

Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture


(99% of you will answer: The Bernank)

jus_lite_reading's picture

This makes me wonder how last week's "CONsumer CONfidence" numbers were so high. LMAO!

Green shoots abound. We'll need to hire a few million "illegal landscapers" to cut 'em down just to see all the great news!


Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture


"There is a huge amount of pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed," Hoffman said. "The only missing ingredient for a sustained consumer rally is job creation."

Just... yeah.

The Axe's picture

Not only that...revisions on retail sales were BAD....ex auto and gas...retail sales fell off a cliff...

jus_lite_reading's picture

That "wealth effect" is really working!... or not. Let it snow let it snow let it snow!

Retail sales were abysmal. Enough said.


morph's picture

Check the retail sales revisions too. Expectations were missed even after large revisions.

The Axe's picture

Must be fucking snow...lol

sodbuster's picture

Yep it was the snow.... and the cold- don't forget the cold!!

cossack55's picture

Snow is cold? WTF. What about global warming?  I want warm snow.

sodbuster's picture

There's cold, 20 degrees.....and then there's COLD.....-20 degrees. 


HelluvaEngineer's picture

Will someone please fix the futures?  They're red. Ok thx.

papaswamp's picture

Can just start to hear....the squeal of the tires as the brakes are slammed on and the economic vehicle begins to slide towards.....(tune in next month) 

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Our efficient markets are pricing this stuff in at least 6 months in advance.  I'm sure of it.

papaswamp's picture

More QE and the skid will go on for a long time....just have no idea whether it will be hitting a brick wall or going off a cliff.....but I'm sure you are correct!! 

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Either way, it is the sudden stop that kills you. I hope it is the cliff. The view will be better.

jobs1234's picture

This will probably be spun as great data and up we go. BTFD

Oh regional Indian's picture

Hollow growth must continue.

Eureka moment. The only thing known that exhibits hollow growth is a baloon or a bubble.

Or similar.



Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture


Overflow-admin's picture

Could you please turn off caps-lock? It's F*****G ANNOYING!

jus_lite_reading's picture

ORI-- Hollow growth is a great term to descibe this giant cesspool of deception and lies. UK inflation comes in at 3.7% in a single month on the back of 10% rise in food price in the same month! DING DING DING! [in an old street English accent] 

"Lot's a chaulk-lit fer me to eat, lot's a coal making' lot's a eat. Warm face, warm hands, warm feet. Oh woodn't it be a loverly?"

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

nothing to see here..retail sales always drop after holidays. that price increase thingy is unexpected tho.

Harry tells me he is adding inventory waiting for the 2nd qtr buying spree per this report.

for myself I see a "silent spring" of higher debt, inflation and lower UE as 99ers commit suicide after getting dropped off the dole and thus reduce the workforce.

geen shoots this spring for sure Harry.

topcallingtroll's picture

That suicide post appears to be a fake based on investigations by various posters.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Oh, did the federal bureau of blog investigations issue a statement on that?

ElvisDog's picture

I knew that post was fake when he wrote that he wasn't allowed to visit his dying partner in the hospital because he was gay. Really. Hospitals ask you if you're straight or not before permitting you access to a patient? I think not.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Thank goodness for Dr. Deficit the 99'ers will be dropping like flies come next month... we wouldn't want those peasants causing any trouble now, ya hear?

<sarc off>

Houston, we have a problem.

Racer's picture

Ah but this is the new age of SouthSeaTulips.com where margins and earnings don't matter

Rogerwilco's picture

Good choice for a domain handle. MississippiSouthSeaTulips.com is too hard to spell.

Racer's picture

What a load of manipulated twaddle

papaswamp's picture

"manipulated twaddle"...there is an under utilized phrase. I like it!

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Seems like a bit of dog's breakfast to me. Eh, what?


Misean's picture

If you just ignore the bad data, the ebubblemy looks pretty healthy.

AN0NYM0US's picture

ElErian and Shilling coming up on Bloomberg Radio - between 9am and 10am est

kornholio's picture

i hope the dow drops 1 or 2 points so i can BTFD

dips gettin more shallow, this bitch is ready to zoom to 36,000....

the old alcoholic art cashin said the market is "resting" what a fucking load of horse shit, he should go to the fucking nursing home with his case of cheap gin...

Misean's picture

Resting?!?! I thought it was pining for the fjords...

sudzee's picture

Real interest rates must be down to -10%. Everything is just honky dory. Dow 100,000 easy.

buzzsaw99's picture

It's all priced in, rally on!

The Axe's picture

Profit warning from FDX--stock up!!!   thats this market..up up and more up..

jobs1234's picture

I know, thats pretty much all you need to know about this latest Aug-Feb parabolic move up - even when you warn your stock goes up. Why didnt Cisco just warn prior to its earnings call?

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Fed Ex Up!

Lowers guidance by 25%, blames it on cocaine and fuel when it already collects more on fuel surcharges than the Airlines on baggage! 

FedEx - Fuel Surcharge

http://www.google.com/images/nav_logo36.png); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; cursor: pointer; display: inline; height: 13px; margin-left: 5px; margin-right: 3px; vertical-align: 0px; width: 13px; background-position: -35px -229px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border: 0px initial initial;">

17.0%, Feb. 7, 2011 - Mar. 6, 2011 After all, it'll be so much easier to post a beat in April and that's all that really matters. 

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Why are lean hogs up so much? WTF?

What did I miss?

Shameful's picture

Emergency bacon reserves being built up.  I know a good part of my freezer is bacon.  I'm going to want it and Zimbabwe Ben is trying to turn me into a vegetarian.

In reality, if memory serves there was a hog culling months back as the price of feed started going up.  Price of feed forces disruptions in the meat market.  Have to cull to duck losing money on the animal feed vs sell price of animal.  The lower future supply in meat lets the prices move up.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Pork bellies are flat. They are gonna corner ham. Bastards. Smoked hams don't need refrigeration, do they?

Sean7k's picture

Well, this just goes to show- America is number one when it comes to manipulating the numbers baby. China, Britain, Europe- what a bunch of posers. We're under 1% with a BTE empire index! In your face you communist underachievers.

papaswamp's picture

I thought the big info was jobs...or lack of hiring. Confirming Gallup's flat hiring index.


Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

I've lately become a big fan of Gallup.  Their consumer spending data is top notch. 


Excellent information for consumer discretionary in particular.  Not that said sector is currently based on fundamentals or anything, but still.

Stuck on Zero's picture

When you are spending more on energy and food you spend less on manufactured items.  Simple as that.  It's even worse when you're unemployed. 

John Law Lives's picture

How long before the arrogant runt that is The Ben Bernank tells us again that inflation does not exist, and that he could bring it under control in 15 minutes if it appeared.

I think he should donate his brain to science.  It might be very revealing...

SheepDog-One's picture

Hans Delbruck? No the name on the jar was 'Abby Normal' something or other......

You mean to tell me I put an Abby Normal brain into a 500 pound printing machine gorilla?