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Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About An Israeli Attack On Iran (But Were Afraid To Ask)
At least back in 2009 the most promising targets for damaging the Iranian nuclear program, specifically the weapons related development, were Plutonium production facilities (characterized primarily by the Plutonium Production Heavy Water Nuclear Reactor in Arak) and facilities critical to the "Nuclear Fuel Cycle" (most obviously the Uranium Enrichment Facility in Natanz and the Uranium Conversion Facility in Esfahan). The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Abdullah Toucan released a detailed report comparing the mission requirements of strikes on these (and other) facilities with Israel's capabilities and concluded the mission was within Israel's grasp operationally.1 Normally we would call this report a "must read," but instead we've read it so you don't have to, as well as added some of our own research and secondary sources. The report also examined the ballistic missile strike option and delved into some of the political and instability costs that an attack would extract (which we ignore for the purposes of this discussion). Those sections are well worth reading, even if the political reality on the ground has changed since early 2009.
The Esfahan facility converts U3O8 to UF6 (Uranium Hexafloride), an interval product on the way to producing highly enriched (read: weapons grade) material.
The enrichment facility at Natanz is a gas centrifuge plant used (in theory) to process UF6 into 3-5% concentrations of U-235 for use in light water reactors (which has the unfortunate side effect of producing some 90% U-235, read: weapons grade uranium). This is the famous underground centrifuge facility. It isn't clear exactly how many centrifuges Iran is operating here (or elsewhere), but 1,000 is enough to produce around 20 kg of highly enriched uranium per year. Iran admitted to the IAEA that it had 3,800 operational centrifuges here in late 2008. About 7,000 are thought to be operating today. Iran publicly aspires to installing 50,000 centrifuges in the Natanz facility in "the next few years." The exact number is something of a mystery.
In addition, once operational, the Arak heavy water reactor has the potential to spit out about 8kg of weapons grade plutonium per year. It is expected to become operational this year or in 2011, and after some warm up, would be at near full capacity to generate electricity (and plutonium) in 2013-2014.
How Much? How Long?
The amount of fissile material required to create a nuclear weapon varies by the method of initiation. In the case of the simple "uranium gun" (using high explosive to propel one sub-critical uranium projectile into another sub-critical uranium mass such that the total mass is super-critical) 20-25 kg of highly enriched uranium is required. As a practical matter, more is likely to be used in a working weapon. While the simplest design, the gun method is highly inefficient and not thought to be practical for plutonium weapons as plutonium's higher neutron emission rate means that plutonium criticality begins long before the masses meet. Uranium has similar issues that must be overcome with sufficient uranium projectile speed.
The amount of material required for a weapon can be reduced by shifting to an implosion type weapon. In this case, rather than using two sub-critical masses, a single sub-critical mass is squeezed together until it becomes super-critical. High explosive is typically used, and the weaponization process is therefore complicated by the design and precision milling of high explosive around a fissile core with sufficiently symmetric detonation to squeeze the core evenly into a small mass. Timing of multiple detonators in the high explosive around a fissile core is the key engineering challenge for these weapons, but as little as 15 kg of high enriched uranium or 6 kg of plutonium is theoretically sufficient to enable a crude implosion weapon. Again, practical weapons will be likely to require more.
Efficiency of the reaction is a major factor in yield, and inversely proportional to weaponization development time. Crude weapons are not likely to be efficient, and at the low end one might assume 10 kiloton yields for smaller weapons.
Bear in mind, however, that one does not have to create an actual fission weapon to cause quite a bit of trouble. Even conventional explosives, when used to spread highly enriched material, have the potential to render wide swaths of land uninhabitable for long periods. In this context, adding the "weaponization development" time required to design and test a working fission bomb might be a bit of wishful thinking.
Picking Targets.
The centrifuges required to produce weapons grade uranium are a particularly vulnerable part of the nuclear fuel cycle, particularly while operating, as it takes very little in the way of physical trauma to destroy one. In addition, given their precision manufacture and the difficulty in replacing them, they are at least partially vulnerable to bottleneck and control via sanctions or embargo. Additionally, it is highly complex to spread individual centrifuges out, meaning they are usually operated in banks of over 1,000 and "cascaded" into one another to produce more and more enriched product. This presents a tempting, concentrated target.
Clearly, the Iranians recognize the alluring nature of the Natanz facility, given the lengths they have gone to in order to protect it. The enrichment facilities were initially built 25 feet underground with 75 feet of dirt above concrete ceilings and walls in 2003. Reportedly the facility was further hardened in 2006. AAA sites now ring the area making "spot the Iranian air defenses" good sport with Google Earth.2
So we'll take 600,000 some square feet of concrete building...
and it's gone. (Iran's Natanz facility 2003-2004) Golf course planned in 2012!
There Goes The Neighborhood!
Air Defense Sites (probably a combination of Skyguard radar controlled
35mm and 23mm Anti-Aircraft Artillery) sprout up SE of Natanz between 2006 and 2009.
Valuable Iranian Real Estate Near Natanz
The Evolution of an Anti Air Site (probably radar controlled 35mm) 2005-2009
35mm AAA Near Natanz3
Both Arak and Esfahan are above ground, and therefore vulnerable facilities. But even in the case of the Natanz facility, the 5,000 GBU-28 penetrating munition is likely enough to deal with even the thick earth/concrete defenses. The issue is one of size. At over 646,000 square feet of underground facility more than 20 would be required. Of course, any significant losses among the strike aircraft would limit the damage.
The Limits of Iranian Air Defense?
Amusingly, Iran is rumored to have acquired 10 Pantsyr S-1E systems from Syria in 2007. These mobile, tracked units are generally thought to be effective for critical facility protection and can be deployed in linked networks. This is comic given what appears to be the total ineffectiveness these systems demonstrated against the Israeli attack on Syrian facilities in September of 2007. Presently, the rumor is that the Israeli's used sophisticated jamming and/or cyber attacks on the advanced Russian weapons to blind them completely during the raid.4 It is not clear that Pantsyr systems were the only anti-air to be defending the Syrian site either. The Pantsyr is the next generation of the SA-19 system and many anti-air systems use radar and fire control units similar to the Pantsyr's 1RS2-1E and 2RL80E units. Potentially vulnerable also are the Russian Tor-M1 systems, of which Iran has liberally partaken.
Traditionally, the "Southern Route" for an Israeli attack (across the southern end of Jordan, into Saudi Arabia and then Iraq or Kuwait through to Iran) was discounted given the political ramifications of overflying Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Despite this, if the Israelis are determined to conduct the attack unilaterally, and rumors of Saudi permission for an overflight5 6 prove true (the Saudis denied this in 2009 and 2010)7 8 the only operational constraints would be the possibility of American fighter aircraft (which are the only armed aircraft flying over Iraq at present) and air defense units firing on Israeli strike groups, or Jordan picking off the plans during their short transit. It is difficult to imagine American units firing on Israeli planes (especially since any Saudi agreement was almost certainly mediated by the U.S. State Department), making this route a potential "beg forgiveness instead of ask permission" approach.
Assuming the use of Israeli F-15E aircraft for GBU-28 delivery an attack on Natanz, Esfahan and Arak would require about 30 ground attack aircraft (a mix of F-15Es and F-16Is) and 40 anti-air defense and anti-air fighters (probably F-16Cs). This works out to basically all of Israel's F-15E craft and a good slice of the F-16s on hand, but it is far from impossible.
Obviously, assistance from the United States would reduce the mission load, and increase the margin for error. But will it be forthcoming?
- 1. Abdullah Toukan, "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities," Center for Strategic and International Studies (March 16, 2009).
- 2. "The Bluffer's Guide: Fortress Iran" by "Planeman" is essential reading (and viewing) for the amateur air-defense analyst.
- 3. Source: Planeman
- 4. "Israel Shows Electronic Prowess," Aviation Week (November 27, 2007).
- 5. "Saudis give Nod to Israeli Raid on Iran," The Sunday Times (July 5, 2009).
- 6. "Saudi Arabia Gives Israel Clear Skies To Attack Iranian Nuclear Sites," The Sunday Times (June 12, 2010).
- 7. "Riyadh Denies Israel Overflight Report," Foreign Policy (July 7, 2009).
- 8. "Saudis Deny Report They Will Allow Israeli Planes Over Country," Israel National News (June 13, 2010).
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The purpose of the article is obvious: to attempt to justify the coming attack on Iran. The attempted justification is embellished with grade-school nuclear fuel cycle and weapons talk designed to give it some cred, plus some sat photos showing Iran's audacity at preparing defenses, as if one or two AA sites are enough to adequately defend a multi-billion dollar installation.
The enrichment facility at Natanz is a gas centrifuge plant used (in theory) to process UF6 into 3-5% concentrations of U-235 for use in light water reactors (which has the unfortunate side effect of producing some 90% U-235, read: weapons grade uranium).
Well, there's a qualifier missing in there, isn't there? "capable of" producing....
But it doesn't matter, because Marla is totally blinded by her complete support for everything Israel.
Iranian nukes are primarily a threat to Israel.
Hey, Marla (you, too, Cheeky): wanna reignite and re-unify the Muslim world against the West? Then fall into this trap and attack the Iranian facility. The MIC will love you for it; after the attack, and a few false flag attacks here in the U.S., what is left of our civil liberties will be gone forever and we will have global war. And for what? Israel.
As for me, I think that price is too high. Marla, tool of the MIC. Congrats.
i really hope there is enough common sense among the worlds leaders to stop this situation with Iran spinning out of control. Iran is well within its rights to develop all the nuclear technology it likes. but if Israel decides to attack them, like they have attacked pretty much everyone else in the region, i hope the Iraninans give those filthy little isreali bastards a real arse kicking.
of course Isreals puppet, the US, will bear the brunt of the costs of Irans self defense as americans lose more lives, money and what little prestige they have left in yet another jewish war of agression.
Isreal is losing friends faster than ever and is already well on its way to becoming a pariah state. No doubt this will just speed up the process.
So go ahead Isreal, you have already sewn the seeds of your own destruction so might as well get on with it, destroy what little credibility, sympathy you have left and remind the world again, like you did in 2006 and 2008, why you never had a country in the first place. Good luck Iran
Israel has always been a "pariah" state. The United Nations spends about half of its time legislating against, and mis-reporting on, tiny little Israel. It's quite the unhealthy obsession. Distracts people from the fact that a few million Jews with a few square miles of land to call their own, can fashion a more productive and affluent country than the tens of millions of their neighbors, with millions of square miles of land, and half the oil in the world.
and those few milllion jews of tiny little israel do it all by themselves dont they? American taxpayers subsidise that productive and affluent country you know to the tune of over $3 billion a year.
the 2 million long term unemployed who are just about to lose their benefits might not agree this is such a good use of funds going forward. Especially once they realise they have just been dragged into WW3.
be interesting to see how affluent isreal would be if it had to stand on its own 2 feet like every other nation. But im sure isreal could just up its arms sales to rogue states and organ harvesting industries to fill the gap.
Wow, $3B? Really? How shocking!
How many $B do we shove at African nations with no effect. How many $T does the world send to the Israeli antagonist states for oil? Israel stands "on its own two feet" more than any other nation in that area.
That $3B a year would be a onetime $1,500 payment for those 2million out of work. Not even 1.5 months worth of "benefits". But don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry.
Stop sending that $3B and watch...
I wanna see the "israeli miracle" without that...
I say it again zina you are an anti-semite. Time and Time again I see you only posting in these Israel post.
Are you crazy? I post everywhere. I post about the World Cup. I bully the teabaggers. In fact, there are topics about Israel and the Middle East that I completely ignore, and I post nothing on them...
Your "anti-semite" paranoid disease is going so far...
Why don't you answer the supposition instead of resorting to name-calling? What would this Israeli "miracle" look like without the hundreds of billions of dollars in aid that that little wretch of a nation has received since it was first misconceived?
Answer the question!
I am Chumbawamba.
How long have Jews lived there? At least you recognize it's a nation. That's a good start.
To answer the hypothetical, however, given the Israelis' past, the smart money is on Israel.
BZZZZZZZT! Sorry, your time's up! Let's look at the scoreboard: Oh! ZERO POINTS. That's gotta hurt.
But we have this nice blender for you as a consolation [hands 2-speed blender to the plebe].
Thanks for playing!
I am Chumbawamba.
So, how long have Jews lived there?
I don't think it's a question of how long have Jews lived there. BTW they lived in peace and were granted protection by the Ottomans, Arabs and muslims for hundreds of years before the formation of Israel. It was the Christians that persecuted and over taxed the Jews.
In Israel's short history, more violence and destruction between Arabs and Jews has never been more. In fact it's Islam that demands tolerance amongst all people of the book. A muslim can even marry a jew (and christian) as a matter of fact. Let me repeat, there is no animosity between Islam and Judaism through the religious teachings of the Quran and Hadith of the Prophet Mohammed S.W.A.S.
The question is, is Israel a legal state? According to the UN, it's not but no one really cares about international laws in respect to Israel.
wow tortfeasor, you really are good at maths, thanks for working out those complex equations for us.
"But don't let facts get in the way of your bigotry."
i havent mentioned anything that is not factual.
It's actually closer to $6b, when you add together the WELFARE they receive from Un Uncle Sam for weapons used to kill babies, and WELFARE they receive for the standard administration of Whites Only apartheid.
Feel free to move to Gaza or Syria or Iran to enjoy the fruits of a free and properous society. Only thing. If you're not a Muslim, or if someone doesn't like you, you're dead. Zero tolerance with some old time barbarism.
Please, don't force me to post Deuteronomy chapter 13 again!
THAT is intolerance, and THAT is the sacred book of Christians and Jews.
1 If there arise among you a prophet, or a dreamer of dreams, and giveth thee a sign or a wonder,
2 And the sign or the wonder come to pass, whereof he spake unto thee, saying, Let us go after other gods, which thou hast not known, and let us serve them;
3 Thou shalt not hearken unto the words of that prophet, or that dreamer of dreams: for the LORD your God proveth you, to know whether ye love the LORD your God with all your heart and with all your soul.
Interesting that you should choose one of the very warnings the Jews used to throw the "prophet" mohammed out. After first going to them claiming to be a prophet, they ran him out of town on a rail. I guess they were just being intolerant.
Intolerance is such a fool's word - one of the more insipid terms that can be used to both support and condemn the same viewpoint. That's just plain stupid.
To wit: It's very intolerant of you to condemn others' beliefs.
Incidentally, the only major intolerant religion that practices these things - and much, much worse - is islam.
Kill babies? Maybe, but you seem to forget that rockets and suicide bombers take out Isreali citizens on a regular basis, so while it is absolutely wrong to kill innocent civilians you might want to remember it is happening on both sides.
"...for weapons used to kill babies..."
I wasn't aware the USA was building abortion clinics in Israel. Thanks for the tip.
the number is higher, its about $8 billion a year.
for a country of few million its a big number, you can buy at least 100 fighter planes each year, and this has been going for 30+ years, we paid totally at least $250 billion to Israel to bring peace(?).
hedge,
What's 3 Billion compared to the HUNDREDS of billions that we have thrown away on the UN?.Who's average workers salary is over $80k per yr, on high priced real estate we gave the fkrs?, and we keep up?.
Who hates our gut's votes against us on nearly every occasion, and is loaded with nothing but tons of frigging Commies/Marxists/Fascists/Dictators???, and useless!.
How about the 2 Billion we just gave to PetroBras?.
A friggin Nationalized oil company, that's got SOROS, and Obama in it up to their asses?.
(great use of our Stimulus dollars too huh?.)
At least Israel is an Allie,has been,and is our only shot at one .................And the only one we have in the ME.
i really hope there is enough common sense among the worlds leaders to stop this situation with Iran spinning out of control.
The "world leaders" will scurry do whatever scummy deeds their Saudi masters orders them to do, briefly:
1) Kill the Apostates - Syria, Irak
2) Kill the Heretics - Iran, Western Democracy
3) Kill the Jews - go to Heaven
Banging the Jews and the Heretics together is just fine for the "world leaders". They are conveniently forgetting how swiftfly just a few Russian missiles will make a lasting impression on the Saudi Oil facilities and the US economy.
Every Israeli knows they can trust no-one and they will not run onto some half-assed US agenda on bombing iran just because princess Obumboy has to be seen kick ass more that Bush so as not look like the coward he really is.
"World opinion, Sympathy" means nothing; You see: Nobody actually cares about brown people getting killed Except when its Israel doing the killing - then its suddenty "News"!
General Butler was a friend of mine.
General Maine was a friend of Butler
I have a friend named Bob. He's really tall and talks funny.
Lets hope BP is operating the Iranian facilities and Haliburton built the equipment.
Lets hope the same genocidal maniacs who attacked Hizbullah and Gaza to stop rocket fire will be at it again.
That ensures that Apartheid Israel will soon destroy itself.
I know this much, a good "televised" war with lots of aerial bombardment and little "televised" blood sure will keep the sheeple's eyes off the increasing unemployment numbers:)
War of words. War of worlds.
Just an L separating them. L at that! Hah!
But, seriously, this is such a plant, scenario planners.
No serious piece of journalism would use disparaging language, it takes away from the arm's length nature of real journalism. Maybe ZH is not journalism at all?
Semantics and labels and different colour glasses, I think.
War is coming, no doubt about that.
We humans just don't like change.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
There is no "real journalism." This is another lie propagated at the idiot factories in order to produce a pliable populace.
When you choose the story about which to write - you impart your bias.
When you choose the headline - you impart your bias.
When you choose each word, and the order in which they are written - you impart your bias.
I'll believe that there is such thing as "real" journalism when the NYT publishes an article on abortion and calls the two sides "pro" and "anti" abortion and, when referencing partial birth abortion, does not use the qualifier "so-called," as in, "so-called partial birth abortion."
Until then, every journalist is biased, generally moreso than the average J6P (that's why they became journalists, after all), and everything said by any journalist should be viewed, properly, as an attempt to sway, not a report of what is.
Aw fuck it, kill them all. Jews, Muslims, US troops, British troops, just cut to the fucking chase so we can get on with our lives.
I'm so goddamned sick of this political theater.
Maybe that is the plan, wear us down with too much catastrophic prediction. Get us to the point where we just don't care as long as something happens.
I'm there now.
http://imgsrv.gocomics.com/dim/?fh=3b4983bfeb7eb5c72ac4a83ab823b7a2&w=750.0
I know you don't think like that :-)
Wernerempire
"I know you don't think like that :-)"
I think EXACTLY like that.
Without definite action you have zero idea just how to proceed. You wrack your brain attempting to work out a survival strategy that encompasses the majority of factors. You wear yourself down because each new day a different angle is introduced.
Like I said maybe that is the plan, break us like pack animals.
I with ya, man. Those children who live by the sword should just get this over with so the rest of us can clean up their mess and move on.
Wouldn't be surprised if it was.
To the elite, there is no Jew, Christian, Hindu, Muslim...there is only have and have-not. And the have-nots are increasing in population. Time to thin the herd.
Mark Faber's been saying that "once the finances truly start deteriorating beyond hope then the next step is they take us to war" for ages.
Me! Me! I have a question to ask!
If Israel attacks Iran, which country will respond to the attack using nuclear weapons? Russia? China? Nobody?
Any possibility of nuclear war?
Zina,
Neither, and NONE.
In December 2009, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy conducted a day-long simulation of the diplomatic and military fallout that could result from an Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. In this Middle East Memo, Kenneth M. Pollack analyzes the critical decisions each side made during the wargame.
I understand the Brookings institution may be a bunch of neo-cons, but the exercise is at least interesting. Summary: Israel attacks on its own, Iran shuts down the Suez, the US tells Israel "you really fucked this up, we'll clean it up", and we do - total time 8 days. Wildly optimistic if you ask me.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2010/02_iran_israel_strike_pollack/02_iran_israel_strike_pollack.pdf
A quick gander of the relative size of Iran and Iraq should give an idea of the scale factor - about four times the Irak war; which has not ended yet ...
If you believe the Brookings Institution to be "a bunch of neo-cons", you should consider yourself to be lost in the woods without a clue.
I'll second that.
Whats up Marla ;
your guitar is broken? I told you last time not to write anything other than music here, its sucks.
You don't belong here. Last time it was a camel on the ship or whatsoever you turned into a Turkish cavalry, with the Israeli cooked movies from IDF , you didn't post here the real videos after the reporters steal from IDF and released days later, you were not interested with truth, just interested with any pro-israeli issue here.
Every Time there is news about Israel, or Israeli interests you are posting something here.
Why are you so pro-isreal ? because you are Jewish and want your enemy to be burned and buried into the ground with all world will be paying the cost ?
Isreal cannot do this operation alone and they are pulling us into this abyss.
Even US helps Israel and attacks Iranian targets, will this be an end ?
Don't be so happy while beating your war drum, be careful what you wish for.
If we attack, Iranians will attack every ship leaving the straight of Hormuz, then oil price will skyrocket, and of course again with their Jewish connection the Squid will long the oil futures and will make a fortune .
It may not even stop there, this may be the beginning of a third world war.
We don't need wars, we have economic problems in the world in almost all countries and we must be able to solve our problems peacefully.
LOL
ROFLMAO
***can't breathe!***
*lulz*
YUM!
(Long crude).
"In 1599, a Spanish governor in early colonial Ecuador suffered this fate. Native Indians of the Jivaro tribe, unscrupulously taxed in their gold trade, attacked the settlement of Logrono and executed the gold hungry governor by pouring molten gold down his throat. (1) Pouring hot liquids or metals, such as lead or gold, into the mouth of a victim was a practice used on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, by the Romans and the Spanish Inquisition among others."
or for a more modern example:
http://www.truecrimereport.com/2010/03/george_rodriguez_pours_gas_dow.ph...
Comic relief:
Marla's interview with Phil Donahue on Israel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uHSv1asFvU
I see CheekyB, the above heated comments raised the Zerohedge room 'Temper-Rature' slightly.No worries i'll switch the FAN on..........Oh,forgot the fans covered with the brown stuff, just great....... time to go to plan B.......i am open'n da window.Incidentally i wonder if IRAN has a plan B.
Come on Marla, weapons grade plutonium is 90% and yet you omit this entirely. They have a stock at 5% and have a programme to take a small amount by weight up to 20% which is necessary for medical isotopes. No official intelligence report says they are near having the ability/capacity to jump to sufficient quantity at 90% in the near term. There is no evidence of a secret programme. The Iranians have been sitting on a stock of French plutonium since the revolution which the IAEA inspects regularly and it remains under lock and key. William Shuster's "Strangling of Persia" is all we are seeing. Old imperial powers Britain and Russia joined by new imperial power USA. The Williams Shuster's of the US all brushed aside by tyrants ever since Teddy Roosevelt. Want to learn how FDR started the Pacific War? Look to how Hull and FDR tricked Vandenberg into giving them negotiating authority on the 1911 navigation treaty with Japan. Look at the logistics they through into the Burma Road and Flying Tigers as they were hooking into the sea lanes to keep the gasoline from getting to Japan. Iran is an echo of this but they aren't stupid enough to take the bait. 2 years and they say they will be self sufficient on gasoline, with austerity they could get by even if they cut off China. Righteous wars? The US doesn't do any of those. Phillipines, what a beauty and still running. Arcs of instability around China, scaring the pants off everyone with the South Koreans folding and the US getting 2 more years of force lead, years more of Okinawa bases. They are all buying time waiting for the US to chew itself to death from the inside out. Patience ..... kisses.
I mean, there is just so much ignorance here I am tempted to ignore it.
Be that as it may: Centrifuge production is measured in something called Separative Work Unit Per Year (SWU). Basic centrifuges run about 2-3 SWU/Year. 5 SWU produces around 30 grams of highly enriched uranium (90%+ = Weapons Grade).
The remainder of the calculation is left as an exercise for the student- the remaining blather is best ignored.
Riiiiiiiight. When you have no clue what is being told to you then that is because the other person is ignorant.
Gee, Marla, I could walk up to you and smash The Big Picture, frame and all, right over your head until you're wearing it like a hula hoop and you still wouldn't see it.
I am Chumbawamba.hul
Chumba,
Pure curiousity, what is it exactly that you do? How do you educate yourself on a continuing basis?
Why don't you do a piece on the nature of the Iranian democracy? Compare it to the Israeli democracy? To the US democracy? Line em up ...
Start with the demon enemy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_parliament
And give us some Marla views on any topic relating to US foreign policy and your take on history. Talk it up rather than slip in supposed situation reports with glaring spin and omission. Let's see Marla politically.
The supposedly ignorant here appear to be mainly those that follow the Jeffersonian tradition. And some heads around here here jump on the fiscal / Austrian monetary side of Ron Paul but you can't walk the walk on libertarian foreign policy can you?
At present, this war clears nothing - nuclear enrichment, Aggregate demand, its only purpose is as a smokescreen for some really really bad news.. and by-the-by, Israel is a successful country because it has smart people working together to get something of value done, like drugs and weapons and telecommunications and building materials, etc., but it has about as much economic importance as Arizona.
The whole thing with the Straits of Hormuz, that has to be tongue-in-cheek, Oil's been above $75 for how long, the strategic reserves have yet to be touched, industrial demand at Dec 2007 levels. How long can the gulf even remain closed?
Iran is under siege. American troops at the Iraq border. American troops at the Afghanistan border. And Israelis at the Georgia border.
But I believe an attack won't occur. Someone is just profiting from the fear of an attack.
footnotes. woohoo. u go gurl.
#2 was interesting.
this artcile really does tarnish Zero Hedges image n my eyes at least...
Fuck the Zonist entity & anyone who is down with it...
truly amaizing how the once brutalized have evolved n2 the splitting image of their Nazi tormentors...their fate will also be the same...
Feel free to apply for your refund.
Zing! On the other hand he could reply that you get what you pay for.
I really enjoy your replies, Marla. You're the best.
LOL, WHAM!........SCORE!.
Marla you ROCK!...............:>)
no refund request forthcoming...
and no good words for an oppressive, aparthied clone of a racist regime either. other than its bankrupt benefactor and apologists like yourself and a few others, the rest of the world sees that fake state for what it is...an afront to decency and respect for other peoples....
now, like some other Zionist supporter exhorted you sometime today - "u go gurl"....
WTF does that mean?! The zionist entity? Like the country is the borg collective? +1 for not using the term "holohoax".
yeah, might as well b a Borg collective made up of a delusional population that believes it can steal (with the assistance of another accomplished thief -read U.S. ) someon else's land and think that its gonna b "all good n the hood"....
well it ain't and unlike with the Borg I assure all appologists that "resistance is not, and will not be futile".....
Thanks, Marla, for a well-researched, thoughtful piece. While war plans are useful and necessary, I believe Iran will collapse before the Israelis have to act (note Iran's abject capitulation when Israel declared they would assume an "aid" ship to Gaza from Iran was an act of war).
The Iranian economy is as rickety as Zimbabwe, unemployment is above 25%, drug use is rampant, as is prostitution, and billions of dollars are drained away by corruption among the religious leadership.
The Ayatollahs have destroyed the fabric of the Persian people far more effectively than the Great or the Little Satan could ever have. They are a beaten people thrashing around on their deathbed.
A lot of people have been waiting a long time for the collapse. It has not been forthcoming. I, for one, am fairly certain that the protests following the June 2009 elections in Iran stalled imminent Israeli action last year. (Recall that the London Times was reporting a Saudi "overflight agreement" in July of 2009). I doubt anyone wants to wait much longer. But then, who knows?
I doubt we'll see it coming. It's in our interest to play up the "strength" of the Ayatollahs. Remember how we've been repeatedly told Iran was within "x" of having the bomb over the past ten years. I doubt they're as close as we've been led to believe. I think we've been using their own bluster against them to allow the Ayatollahs to steadily drive their economy into the ground. They've spent (i.e. wasted) billions on their underground facilities that are basically the Maginot Line redux.
If one believed the great historic slander, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, one would have to conclude the Ayatollahs were an evil Zionist strategy to eviscerate the once proud Persian culture.
Once Iran collapses, the Middle East becomes a much more solvable conundrum. There's still the problem of Saudi wahhabism, but we'll deal with them, too.
"A bomb" is awful- but it is not the only evil that highly enriched material presents. There is the sale of same to nations further along in the process (North Korea). There is the use of the material in nuclear terrorism. To my way of thinking, focusing on the date that Iran might be able to construct an efficient implosion weapon is a huge mistake. If you think otherwise, why not permit private ownership of non-critical masses?
The fact that the Ayatollahs capitulated when told aid ships would be considered an act of war is the tell.
They've been enriching uranium for some years, or so we've been told. They know that we know how to forensically trace uranium to its site of origin.
Therefore, Iran has no real interest in war beyond paying Palestinian, Syrian and Hezb'Allah stooges to die "for the cause". Therefore, they won't give any fissile material to anyone.
The Ayatollah's have spent untold billions to eventually get "a bomb" to protect themselves from the Great Satan and to project Persian hegemony across the Middle East. They won't waste that potential on actually going toe-to-toe with anyone more powerful than they. If they had a thousand weapons, yes. Till then, no.
Ask yourself, why would the Russians and the Chinese, who are significantly closer to Iran than we, put up with the potential of an Iranian bomb? Both countries have major problems with Muslim populations within their borders, much more so than America. Why allow the leadership of militant Islam to arm itself with a nuke that they could one day smuggle into Russia or China for a "suicide operation"?
Russia and China are in it for the money, and to tweak our nose, but they're not suicidal themselves. Obama probably is one, but Putin is no fool. Russia and China know Iran is light-years from having a bomb.
Like us, Russia and China are waiting for the collapse, Russia especially. They covet that oil. In the meantime they're sucking Iran dry of whatever hard currency and fungible commodities they can extract.
Stop listening to the western press or Monarchists longing for a return of the Peacock throne. The average Iranian knows that sanctions have done huge damage to their economy. The average Iranian knows that the so called populous "leaders" the west has funded to the tune of over 500 million dollars represent the urban upper classes not themselves the urban and rural poor. The Mullahs have made many errors but they can continue to deflect blame due to the non-stop interference by the western powers.
What fools in the west fail to acknowledge is that the majority of people in 3rd world are dirt poor. This being fact, the Iranian, Venezuelan, Bolivian...etc leadership do everything possible to cater to the majority the poor. The poor in Iran know that if the Monarchists retake power, all the subsidies for housing, fuel and food will disappear. These subsidies burn up 25% of the Iranian government budget. If the sanctions did not exist, the Iranian economy would be in better shap and the subsidies could be decreased. You will see a bloodbath if the tiny population of the urban upper classes attempt a coup. In reality they want the west to topple the leadeship so they can steal power for themselves.
Marla,
I don't generally thank people for their posts here (in general the content is good and worthy of thanks) but given the ludicrous direction of many comments I'll take the time to do it. Thank you.
I'll also offer a piece of advice. If I were you I wouldn't waste my time replying to many of these posts. A good number aren't even remotely on the topic of feasibility/probability/structure of a strike on Iran's nuclear assets. No harm in letting them sit.
Well, sometimes, egotistical as this is, I feel like it is my duty to address what I see as simplistic or sophisticated (but erroneous) comments. Some of the posters in comments are irredeemable. But, perhaps just occasionally, there might be someone on the fence who has faced these sorts of emotional (but weak) arguments before and found themselves at a loss to answer them. Perhaps my answer will provide a template. Perhaps it will jog their thoughts to something even more persuasive and decisive. Perhaps it will anger them enough to get them engaged. Perhaps they will change my mind. (It's happened before. No. Really). Any one of these is reason enough to address even the most absurd blather here on Zero Hedge. Talk is nothing. The exchange is the goal.
Marla your position is junk. What is the reason to support Israel? Any of the points are trumped by just having America invade and take over any of the countries that America feels the need to deal with - For America's gain. To twist all these 'needs' for only Israel should gain and prosper to allow America to breathe freely is manipulative of the goodwill of the American taxpayers/soldiers and whatever is left of American patriotism.
To stay it bluntly.. why not America destroy Iran for American interests? Israel be damned.
If you feel Israel is such a part of America now, then make it a 51st state and tax their citizens accordingly.
Answer? What answer? Answer to what? You mean the masturbatorial tripe at the top of this URL? God damn, you practically rubbed your mental clit right off!
I am Chumbawamba.
Shit, Marla, that is a very impressive article. Well written and researched. Thanks.
I've had a hard time believing that President Obama would endorse/support a military strike by Israel. However, once a president's approval numbers dip into the low 40s, and Obama is now around 42%, the only way, historically, to get them back up is through a war. We'll see...
It is difficult to imagine American units firing on Israeli planes
if I had Barak Hussein Obama at my back I would be worried about being set up
This is a double post; but I offer it as a suggestion for further "clarity" on this issue.
"Perhaps Marla's next article will cover Israeli nuclear production and proliferation?"
...and how many times Israel has threatened to wipe their neighbors off the face of the earth ;)
Israeli's don't threaten. They actually do it.
Thanks for your ignorance but that seems to be in abundant supply today. Come back some other time when we have a shortage, which will probably be never.
I am Chumbawamba.
Chumba, I lived and worked in the KSA, and held a rather high security clearance for access to Aramco's production facilities, both onshore and offshore. I'm not quite as ignorant as you might think :)
Israeli's don't threaten. They actually do it.
I agree, although I don't believe an Israeli first-strike would ever be nuclear. I can't say the same for the ithna'ashariyyah in Iran, which was my point.
If Iran suspected the Kingdom of even idle complicity in an Israeli attack, it's conceivable that a few Shahabs could find their way to Ras Tanura and 'Bqaiq. They might even target SABIC in Jubail, just for fun. If successful, such an action would be far more effective than an Iranian naval interdiction of the Straits of Hormuz.
Chumbawamba needs a Twitter account.. Or blog.. Something.
He never did
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/print.asp?ID=5866
I had dreams of dying in WW3 ... looks like it's going to be a reality =( sigh ...
Hi, not sure if anyone else has looked at other alternatives. I try to not view the world with a logistical mind. I have found out that things (more often than not) are NOT as they seem. Let's consider some other scenarios...
1) What if the uber build-up in the Indian Ocean is to PREVENT Israel from launching an attack against Iran rather than to help them. Perhaps BO is making the USA "Big John" in the middle of the octagon between two UFC MMA fighters. Maybe all the ASW ships that are part of a carrier battle group are precisely to prevent those Israeli nuke subs from launching an attack. Maybe all those assets are to prevent an attack on a handful of US ships by the Israeli's ala USS Liberty.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Liberty_incident
so maybe we are over there just to "keep it fair" and to "bring peace to the region".
btw, nice to see you back again interacting with us scumbags Marla!
Biff Malibu
Good point. And maybe Obama believes the only way to neuter Israel is to let them cut their own throats? Just keeping a show of force to keep hostilities non-nuclear?
But probably just a mass meeting of sociopaths.
As J.E. Dyer posted on HotAir, Pat Buchanan has made a career out of saying we're going to war with Iran every time they swap out carriers in the gulf.
You don't want to be thought of in the same light as HIM, do you?
I do.
I would like to send a letter of apology to every human being my country has murdered.
go for it
Well when you preface the whole damn article that way, I can see why some feel a sense of urgency and necessity to obliterate a sovereign nations technical facilities.
Try this:
Exchange the words "weapon" and "bomb" with "civilian energy source" and ZH may be back on the path of distinguishing itself from the MSM and Israeli propaganda.
I cant imagine any scenario where the Saudis would refuel Israeli jets. That would be absolutely essential if the IDF were to attack these facilities from Israel. It would be far more feasible & likely to use ballistic missiles, or plead the Americans to do it for them then to see the Arabs REFUELING Israeli fighter-bombers to attack another Muslim nation.
Ah, the beauty of war. Usually we all joke around but this is some serious shit guys. You've all got sand in your vaginas. I love this thread, keep it up guys... Personally, I don't care if we bomb them or not, I just hope we're not the only one stuck paying the tab.
The social scientists lurking on this board must be having a field-day with the crude male responses that the presence of an intelligent woman brings out. Anybody else notice the number of male posts giving Marla orders to do this or that, answer these questions, tell us this about yourself? I'd make a comment that all of this ordering-Marla-about seems to come from the anti-Zionist crowd, but that would be politically incorrect - so I won't make the comment.
In the beginning of ZH there was much discussion about posting with an avatar rather than with your real name. I side with those who agree that it is the strength of the argument tendered that has value, not the knowledge of anything about the writer. I apply that attitude to these articles about the middle east. I am amused and distressed at all of the agitation in this topic to know what Marla thinks of this or that - as tho it has any relevance to the article she posted. I was hoping she would not respond to demands to reveal herself and her opinions, in the spirit of the rational for using avatars rather than real names. However, ultimately, I'm glad she responded, as her comments, and the more civilized responses they generated, added to the value of the information presented here.
Finally, I think the ZH Team should insist on a reasonable level of respect toward them from the participants. If it was my board, I would instantly ban any poster who says any member of the ZH Team doesn't belong here and /or shouldn't be here posting.
Let's see. The above post has:
i) Reference to psycological urges grounded in sexism as the source of disdain
ii) Dichotomies (anti-Zionist) either/or etc
iii) Allusion to being outside the mainstream while really being in the mainstream
iv) Frustration that character assination is difficult
v) A call to ZH to curb free expression on this site
This style of argumentation is a completely cornered market. What does the "P" stand for Richard?
So you agree with me then that it is probably not the blonde nordic types that are trying to boss Marla around and tell her she doesn't belong on her own board??
Has anyone dared tell Tyler that he doesn't belong here? Does anyone dare tell Tyler that he doesn't belong here? Then why do they dare with Marla?
The appearance of the intelligent female elicts a predictable response. That is intriguing, but also disheartening.
But it's probably just a culture thing. I could say fathers, teach your sons. But maybe they did. Oh well. We still have fathers, be good to your daughters.
they call him "the one"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dswWerOcVo0
they call him "the one"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dswWerOcVo0