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Food Inflation Comes To America: General Mills, Kraft And Kellogg Hike Prices On Selected Food Products
After denying for months that surging food prices will eventually come to the consumer, hoping that instead food companies could absorb the margin drop, sellside research is finally capitulating to the reality of what is really happening in the retail store. In a note discussing General Mills, Goldman Sachs says the company raised prices on snack bars some 7% last week. Goldman further clarifies that "this reportedly followed a comparable increase taken by K on its snack bars in mid-December. In addition, KFT has reportedly announced a 6% increase on select Planters branded nut products. We expect more price increases to be announced by the food companies in the coming weeks." Maybe, but the Chairman sure doesn't. And the Chairman is always 100% correct.
Other observations from Goldman on what are now seen as inevitable price increases across numerous food verticals.
These pricing actions support our Food sector view that price momentum will continue to build as 2011 progresses, driven by easing promotional spending and list price increases (see our 1/5 report, Time to embrace inflation; Upgrade Food to Neutral, GIS to buy). This should drive top-line acceleration and margin stabilization over the course of 2011. Evidence of the progression is already apparent in retail scanner data (see our 1/11 report, Progression to a ‘less bad’ promo environment continues). Scanner data is likely to continue to show a measured pace of price growth. That said, we acknowledge that the growth is likely to build gradually as the pass-through of list price hikes to retail shelves lags and the reduction of promotional spend takes time to execute.
As a reminder, in December, the food component of the CPI increased by 0.1%, the lowest amount since July...
And just to complete the circus, Goldman now views price pass
throughs as a good thing. See: it resolves the margin issue. Uh, yeah.
But someone should explain to Goldman that when calculating revenue, one
multiples Price (P) by Volume (V). And in a stagflationary economy, and
increase in P results in a more than commensurate decline in V,
offsetting all margin boosts.
GIS (Buy) remains our top Food pick and snack bar price hikes reinforce our conviction. To our knowledge, Mills has now executed price increases in categories that account for roughly half of its US retail portfolio (and we think there may be other increases we are not yet aware of). The snack bar price hike alone may tally to 40 bps of price growth at the aggregate US retail segment level (roughly 6% of sales rising 7%). This 40 bps is meaningful when you consider that our model only aspires to 140 bps of price growth on average for GIS’ US Retail Segment over the next four quarters. And the coinciding price moves by Mills’ competitors reduces the risk of cross-price elasticity-driven volume softness. Our PT is unchanged.
And to the Fed, which erroneously believes that a one day sell off in stocks will prevent oil (and food) prices from posting double digit returns on the back of several trillion pieces of linen printed globally in 2010, you have our condolences.... Better keep those emergency evacuation G-Sixes fueled, staffed and ready.
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(Canned) Beef. It's what's for dinner
http://www.beefitswhatsfordinner.com/
dup.
Lucky you still get 12 eggs. We only get 10 real ones and 2 made of paper. They are calling it A Pikers Dozen!
Seriously, I have been watching this going on for the last couple of years. Glad to see I am not completely insane.....yet.
Tis the grain cost a rising - chickens got to eat too
"And just to complete the circus, Goldman now views price pass throughs as a good thing. See: it resolves the margin issue. Uh, yeah. But someone should explain to Goldman that when calculating revenue, one multiples Price (P) by Volume (V). And in a stagflationary economy, and increase in P results in a more than commensurate decline in V, offsetting all margin boosts"
When your average salary is $400,000+, who gives a shit. Fucking peons.
porterhouse > ny strip > t-bone > beef loin > hamburger > spam > dog food > tin cup.
or as alan homespun greenspan would say: consumers practice substitution so there's no inflation.
I'd put squirrel between hamburger and spam
Free range or corn fed squirrel? :>)
grain fed if you shoot the one hanging around under your neighbors bird feeder.
.22 cal pellet gun, barely a sound
Down in the Bayou, they're ringing up Nutria. Fat sonnabitches, and they claim once you get the gristle and sand out of the very dark meat, it's better than possum!
Nutria...the other white meat.
http://www.ifish.net/gallery/data/500/Nutria_Trapping_003.jpg
Tried it when I lived there. Tastes like liver, and I HATE liver. Fur is nice tho.
Ptthhhiiiit
That's all folks.
OMG...coffee out the nose funny!
any thoughts on sausage?
That's what the neighbors dog is for. When the food riots start, make sure to bring your pets inside.
Sure. Pork has gone up-up-up, but it's still delicious.
Just because it cooks like pork, doesn't mean it really is ... You ever wonder why the BLS unemployment numbers keep dropping? Think about it...
LMAO!
Id put the squirrel above the porterhouse. Ala Natural. No hormones,antibiotics excess fat, and other artery clogging crap than those frontrunning T-bones of yours. But Hey thats just me, I raise that other crap. Might be a reason American Indians did not have cancer, diabeties, obesity ect.....................................Hmm
Paleo-diet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleolithic_diet
their average life expectancy was far lower because they frequently died of preventable diseases
bit stringy fresh, run 'em over with the car first.
I marinate mine 'on the vine' and then get a buzz if you don't cook them too long... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ikH9ZRcF2Q And if you've never fished for squirrel, you haven't fished! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8mjO1O9A7s&feature=related
Have you tried the Kennel Ration beef and cheese -- surprisingly yummy - and the packaging is bio-degradable, so I feel good about myself as I starve. Now this is a change I can finally believe in
i'm more of an "old roy" rice and lamb connoisseur. can't afford the high end products.
... and the kids get SNAUSAGES for desserts!
try the high protein stuff, ya don't poop as much.
money shot at 3:20
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=24405&title=tyro...
LOL, I love Tyrone Biggums and his crazy friend Ashey Larry.
So, where do you rank road kill?
same as drive-thru.
KFT five packs of blue-box mac & cheese have gone from 2.50 to 3.50 at WMT in the last 3 mos.
Since I failed math, isn't that like a 40% increase?
How 'bout them apples boys and girls? NO inflation. 100% pure.
WTF, how do you eat an iPad?
Oh wait ... never mind.
If you failed math how the hell did you get past the CAPTCHA!?
Here comes the increase in SNAP users.......
This is the proverbial shit hitting the fan. While just sharts are making their way to the fan, expect a nice duece here for those dependent on welfare to feed their family. When welfare checks can no longer buy the plebes enough of their daily rations is when the riots make their ways into the streets, aka Tunisia. Problem is the riots will be expressing the need for more government involvement and not less. Fuck this place, it's bullshit, I'm outta here. haha.
Good luck escaping. When the Mexican's started fleeing the US and headed south, that was your chance... you can get in but not out. No more.
You can check out any time you like but your money may never leave.
+1; beat me to it.
Not the country. I meant life - HAHA. This world is nutz I tell ya...nutz. What a shame. I want to go back to blissful ignorance again. Those were the days.
Me too. When they said red pill or blue pill, I took the blue pill, but all that did was give me a 4 hour erection.
+1 and call your doctor.
I noticed your avatar has "Crash JP" but with the increase in people on SNAP benefits continuing (and probably accelerating with the increased food costs) I'd say this must be bullish for JP.........after all, don't they get the fees for those cards in about half the states?
They don't use the welfare check to buy the food.. they use the snap card to buy the food and the welfare check to buy the flat screen.
I predict that the more we add to the SNAP roles, the closer we get to a SNAP countdown.
just like Healthcare, Uncle is buying, so lets' raise the price
It's all about the packaging, that's what they are selling. The product is cheap to produce, so to raise the price they reduce the size of the packaging. That's what's gonna get people, 11oz cans of soda.
Buyer beware! (half sarc)
Titus where you been? This is the old way, circa '07-'10. Now that this strategy has had its run, and margins are still compressing, time to raise prices. A lot.
Packaging changes aren't aways that cheap. They generally require new artwork, new (smaller) package sizes, new tooling (molds, dies), change parts for filling lines, new cartoning equipment, changes to shrink wrap machines, new pallet designs, new palletizers, changes in warehouse slotting if the shipper changes size...it's not an easy change.
Haiti Cakes....aka Mud Pies.
You will all learn to love them and crave them, if The Bernank is allowed to continue the Frederico Fellini-esque screenplay in his mind.
everything is fungible in it's own way
(sing along to the Ray Stevens tune if you like, "Everything is Beautiful in it's Own Way."
can't afford beef, chicken is cheap, can't afford chicken, buy chick peas, can't afford chick peas, just the peas, thank you.
until you actually start starving (the money you save eating nothing but peas will help your added healthcare costs when you get sick from eating nothing but peas)
anyway I shop with coupons and since New Years the coupon discounts are offset by higher prices.
This old trader and me, were at the bar and we
Were having us some beers and swappin' I dont cares
Talking gold, silver and leveraged etf's
Old trades and new adr's, and miners we aint short yet ...
We talked about Ben's pomo, and all the markets he raised
Then I heard the ol' trader say
Ben is great, pomo is good, and doomers are crazy
He said I rode two miners, been blowtorched and monkey hammered
What brings you to Arm Holdings, he said profits, you know
We talked an hour or two, bout every miner we knew
What we'll put them through, like two old traders will do
We pondered china and the euro, he lit a cigarette with a mining derivative i.o.u.
Said these damn things will kill me yet
But Ben is great, pomo is good, and doomers are crazy
The top is 1,420.00, I said goodbye to that
I will never see that price again ....
Then one sunny day, I saw the old mans face
Front page IBD, he was a millionaree
He made his fortune shorting the miners
The doomers were mad as hell, but me, Im doing well
And i said, Ben is great, a little inflation is good, and doomers are crazy
Good story and part true.
I posted this ( ben is great, pomo is good .... ) with gold over 1,400 ... Spritzer was piiiiiiissed, I tried my best ......
Also ..... The facts :
I'm so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment. The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price. Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed. Doesn't he realize he's hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I don't think he is acting very "neighborly" by doing this. I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors. It's people like him who are ruining the market for the rest of us. If he would just refuse to lower his price, we could maintain our comps and everyone would benefit. What can I do to stop him?
Question during a real estate chat held by the Washington Post.
I was a brand-new investor. I thought I was doing the right thing, but it looks like I lost everything. My wife is mad at me.
Massoud Balbas, quoted in the LA Times
I think what may happen -- I don't think you'll see a reduction in [intangible] value; let's put it that way. Value and price are different things. You probably won't see a reduction in value, but maybe in prices, meaning you can pay less but it's worth more.
Realtor Beverly Pindling, quoted in the Orlando Sentinel
Amazing how gullible people are when they buy homes or gold. How readily they eat up the experts' advice.
Lol ' ... Just like shows on flipping houses or condo's ....
.... " NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As economic fears drive gold prices to new highs, the creator of a gold-dispensing ATM is attracting attention around the globe.
Germany-based GOLD to go, which is currently churning out 50 gold machines a month to meet a recent jump in demand, launched its first ATM in Abu Dhabi's Emirates Palace Hotel earlier this month and opened its second in Germany last week. " ....
All over town here are guys on corners waving "We Buy Gold" signs. I noticed a car this weekend with a shrink wrapped" I Buy Gold " message on the doors. There must be others out there.
"Lol ' ... Just like shows on flipping houses or condo's ...."
You forgot to add shows like CRAMER and buying equities
Even if I think your predictions are crap, that was a very entertaining parody.
I don't know if it's just my Food Lion, but seems like every other week the vendors are in re-doing the planograms. I think they are now VERY aggressively managing the space and the skus. The tooth brush aisle has been reduced by half.
The store Ive been going to forever just did it! Although I didnt know it was called 'planograms'...Switched the whole place around, cant find anything now.
shortages are on the way. fewer choices, and the chains have always under served the poor neighborhoods. it's a fact that you pay more for everything in poor neighborhoods, and that your fresh produce is a lesser quality.
we have a latino supermarket chain, Northgate, best produce, best meat, they make it up on sundries, but they have van service, pick you up and take you home. and the biggest produce section for ten miles. i think there is very little vendor outsourcing, which is just a way the chains avoid responsibility.
I'm living a very ethnically diverse neighbourhood right now even by Canada standards. But it is great wrt buying food - tons of mom and pop stores serving the locals and great and inexpensive restaurants too. Japanese, Chinese, Indian, Persian, Mexican all within a two block radius.
I stopped buying cereal, its ridiculous seeing boxes of crap I dont even really like for $4.
We make breakfast bars once a week in our house. They are very tasty, and you can just grab and go. They'll keep even a big guy like myself on his feet until lunchtime. Lots of oats and sunflower seeds, along with peanut butter, raisins, and craisins. Very tasty. We don't even keep milk in the house anymore. You can absorb the calcium from spinach much more easily anyways.
You actually take time off to eat? Who guards the windows and mans the weapons during this period you slack off Doomer watch to eat rabbit feed?
Ah, just mix some dirt with it! The pigs at McDonalds won't know the difference.
In Africa they actually sell bars of salted clay for people that cant afford food for the day it staves off hunger pangs. Ain't crony capitalism grand?
Actually, thats in Haiti.
They sell clay in the rural convenience stores in Georgia, too. People with pica eat it. That and laundry starch.
oops double post
Walmart announced they're cutting the amount of sugar, fat and salt in all of their food products they carry (or telling manufacturers to do so), and they're cutting the cost of produce by 20% pretty much across the board.
Maybe Walmart will do this, and this shall please The Bernank & The ObaMao.
I wonder if Walmart will start selling those imported mud cakes from Haiti soon?
'Course we used to make em when we were kids, we've got pretty good clay soil here and from what I remember didnt taste all that bad in a pinch...so at least with clay cakes we can still eat something. Sprinkle on some pebbles for a little variety even, lots of possibilities.
Cellulose fiber in the whole wheat bread, HFCS too ... mmm mmm that there's some good eatin' ...
The downside is having to see Big Sis's ugly mug telling you to turn in your children, parents, neighbors, friends, etc., for holding PMs and spouting propaganda, like POMOs are a ripoff, on every TV set hanging every 10' in the store.
That just means that they will be adding more Aspartame, MSG and other (ahem)heathier chemical additives to their food.
I know its real bad when even my mom who has gobs of money is even complaining like crazy about how expensive the store is now. My mom indicator is totaly reliable.
Yes, there are unmistakable signs of hardship every where. Just this morning, my butler and cook got into a heated argument as to whether or not one could purchase smoked salmon with a SNAP card.
What's nice about the inflating is that my longs have inflated much more since August than my morning bowl of cereal. LOL. Inflation is exactly IMO why you need to be in the equities market rather than a money market. Those who are only getting returns of .5% are going to get eaten alive by inflation and those who are short, well their bowl might be filled with dog food instead--lol. JMVHO!
Food prices are getting way too stupid to be real. I bought a can of corned beef hash just three weeks ago for .79 at Aldis and yesterday it was .99
WTF Aldis? A man's gotta eat you know!
Here corned beef hash is a solid $3, and they dont put it on 2 fer 1 anymore either!
I've been off Corned Beef Hash for a few years since the recall, not because of the recall but because the recall also included dog food
http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/PublicHealthFocus/ucm179201.htm
Creative re-packaging
Bernank tax is killing me. Case of Guiness is well north of $42
Premium dog food bags $40+ with coupons!
I guess I better get used to Shit beer and my dog better get used to shit dog food. Only so much you can hoard.
Adapt.
Bernanke is asking for patriotic taxpayers (aka supporters of Goldman & House of Morgan) to sacrifice and do their part.
You can make shine from the berries of juniper bushes or even the stems and leaves of grape vines.
Brew it, still it, and slap on a label that reads 'Bernank's 90 Proof Butt Juice.'
6 pack of Guiness and corned beef - the Irish 7 course meal baby. Da da da da dahhhh...I'm drinking it.
Like Buying Air
I prefer the Kellogg's same price, bigger box, 18oz less inside policy...
As For Kraft...
How do you lighten cheese wizz? More plastic, less New Jersey chemical content?
Good thing I don't eat any of their crap, bitchez...
With the purchase of enough of the big boxes of Kellogs, it will offer you new housing construction materials when you get FCd' out of your current digs because you had to stop paying your mortgage in order to afford Kelloggs.
Cheez Whiz aint exactly for the poor now! Go check out a can of that crap its like $4!
Not sure about the Cheese Whiz, but I see that Peter Pan is adding air to their peanut butter and marketing it as "whipped." It's the same size as regular peanut butter, but weighs less and costs more.
They're doing this with the 'foaming hand soap' pumps, too. Manufacturers are loving consumers buying into this, because it's basically 90% air and 10% hand soap, but costs as much or more as the real deal.
Ain't marketing the shiznit?
Make mine spam. On sale at COSTCO. Stock up before the run up! Don't worry and be happy, we have universal healthcare.
Another trend I've spotted lately is marking up the "Family Size" packages. At the local Target, Cheerios are much cheaper (per oz) in the 24 oz box that in the 17 oz or 42 oz. I guess they're banking on people assuming that the big box is the best deal.
Our officials are really into CPI as their inflation measure, which is a shame because it doesn't actually take into account, well, inflation.
"Inflation ex-food and energy" is the most oxymoronic phrase in the economic glossary.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Reformed-Broker/2010/1108/Food-pri...
Everyone is kicking our asses right now: Blythe, Ben, Hu, and an assortment of other cocksuckers. I tell you:
There is no where to fucking hide.
I dedicate this Frank Sinatra classic to The Bernank:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OId8ByO4jg
CPI= only counts
Cheap chinese crap
Plots to bury yo broke azz
IPads
For whatever this is worth, I just came from my local super market. I've never seen the stock on frozen vegtables so low. Probably less than 25% of capacity.
Probably not a good thing....
I have noticed low or sometimes no, stock of pretty standard stuff in my local super.
It will be in the next day but still...
A&P?
These companies have been boosting prices in a stealthy way for 2 years now, most people just have not noticed. They have been raising prices by reducing the size of the packaging. Sure, you're still paying $4 for a box of cereal, but that box is a little thinner and shorter than the one you bought a few years ago.
Hearing lots of chatter in the general public now about noticing big increases (20 - 40%) in the price of various goods in the grocery store.
CPI will probably be lower this month.
I'm going to eat unhealthy so I die young. Living hell would be spending extra years in an old folks home surrounded by food Nazis.
I prefer the company of bacon cheeseburger consumers.
+4 clogged arteries.
I own a vegetable farm and the food Nazi's are my main customer base. They can drive you fucking crazy but they still have disposable income, thank God.
Get rid of the K extortion. That should lower prices about .05%
The Bernank has a tip to stretch your food budget in these 'deflation is a real risk' times:
Buy gallon of milk.
Add one gallon of cold, distilled water.
Voila. You just cut your milk costs by 50%. Deflationary, indeed!
Inflation is a problem worldwide, but Food inflation would have a greater impact on the developing markets. I'd be watching this space closely going forward.
http://theintrinsicvalue.com/research/food-inflation-how-much-percentage...