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Gallup Reports Underemployment Surges To 19.9%, February "Jobs Situation Deteriorates": As Bad As 2010
On one hand we have the Department of Truth about to tell tomorrow that NFP based on various seasonal and birth death adjustments increased by 250,000. On the other hand, we have Gallup which actually does real time polling without a procyclical propaganda bias. And Gallup does't have any good news: "Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010." And the one indicator that nobody in the mainstream media will touch with a ten foot pole: "Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%)."
Unemployment rate:
And Underemployment:
A summary of Gallup's view on February jobs data which likely will be diamterically opposite to what the propaganda machine will spout tomorrow:
Jobs Situation Deteriorates in February
There is essentially no difference between the unemployment rate now and the one at this time a year ago; January's rate, in contrast, showed a 1.1-percentage-point year-over-year improvement. This suggests that the real U.S. jobs situation worsened in February. That is, jobs are relatively less available now than in January.
In the broader underemployment picture, the situation is much the
same. January's year-over-year improvement of 1.0 points became -0.2
points in February. In turn, this suggests job market conditions in
terms of underemployment also worsened during February.
This deterioration in the jobs situation combined with surging gas
prices, budget battles at the federal and state level, and declines on
Wall Street tend to explain the recent plunge Gallup recorded in consumer confidence. They also align with the continued "new normal" spending patterns of early 2011. Although Gallup's Job Creation Index
has improved over the past year and showed modest improvement in
February, the improvement has not been significant enough to positively
affect underemployment and unemployment.
Warren Buffet said Wednesday on CNBC that the U.S. unemployment rate
should be in the low 7% range by late 2012. If that is going to be the
case, the job creation environment must change dramatically from what it
is today.
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Sir Allen Greenspan will be giving his remarks on the employment report from CNBC studios in the morning.... Steve Lies Man is triming his nose hairs tonight.
Perhaps Steve can explain this notion. Let's hope he doesn't go into a comatose state while reading the teleprompter.
Insurance and Banking: Risk, Resiliency and Harmonisation
I am a small business owner. In fact, until recently, I was running two businesses. One was an insurance agency and the other was a farm equipment dealership with a branch office. Before the recession, I probably averaged about 30 full time and seasonal employees in the ag business and 3 people at the insurance agency. Last October, I was approached by another insurance agency about buying my book of business. Between us, we had 4 full time positions and two part time positions. After the consolidation, he has 2 full time positions and one part time position. I have none. Those other 2 full time positions and the one part time position are gone, forever.
In my ag business, the recession required me to cut back, big time. My business is like most others. When forced to cut back, you focus where the real money is, payroll. When I compared my W-2’s for 2008 to 2009, they dropped by $185,000. When I compared 2009 to 2010, they dropped an additional $65,000. Some of this was offset by an increase in subcontract labor but not nearly as much as one might think. In the end, we found different ways of doing things to save money.
Here’s the rub. I don’t think I am any different than any other small business out there. We were forced to adopt a new business model in order to survive. When things get better, if they do, why would we abandon a business model that has proven itself to be more effective than the previous one? Consolidating job functions, creating part time positions out of full time positions, adjusting benefits, subcontracting labor and simply eliminating positions or automating them helped save the business. When things get better, I hope to be able to use some of the increase in the bottom line to become a better employer for those who remain. Adding people just doesn’t make sense anymore.
you have the financial sector, deregulation and the globalists to thank for it all.
In any business it's always the same two choices. Labor or quality. As you can see here labor is the first choice. Cut quality and it only buys a little time. I don't think anyone who is not a TBTF banker likes this.
Adding people is a quick deal in a business model based on expansion as it increases the inputs. Without physical expansion, optimization is the only path left and this includes often reducing the workforce.
Good comment.
"Consolidating job functions, creating part time positions out of full time positions, adjusting benefits, subcontracting labor and simply eliminating positions or automating them helped save the business."
This needs to happen in every government across the board, and you are obviously a decision-maker capable of it.
Underemployed & Fat America News.. there's $$ to be made in fatness,
In some ways, we are better off in this Fat Economy. Many people work in easier, better-paying jobs, which help pay for their big homes in the suburbs. Women don't have to spend two hours preparing dinner every night; many have risen to unprecedented levels of corporate and political power. Flat-panel plasma TVs hang over fireplaces, which can be lit using the same remote control for flipping channels. But the unintended consequence of these economic changes is that many of us have become fat. An efficient economy produces sluggish, inefficient bodies.
"The obesity problem is really a side effect of things that are good for the economy," said Tomas J. Philipson, an economics professor who studies obesity at the University of Chicago, a city recently named the fattest in America. "But we would rather take improvements in technology and agriculture than go back to the way we lived in the 1950s when everyone was thin. Nobody wants to sweat at work for 10 hours a day and be poor. Yes, you're obese, but you have a life that is much more comfortable."
For many corporations, and even for physicians, Americans' obesity has also fattened the bottom line. William L. Weis, a management professor at Seattle University, says revenue from the "obesity industries" will likely top $315 billion this year, and perhaps far more. That includes $133.7 billion for fast-food restaurants, $124.7 billion for medical treatments related to obesity, and $1.8 billion just for diet books -- all told, nearly 3 percent of the overall U.S. economy.
Did you know, according to consumer-research firm Mintel Group, that we guzzled $37 billion in carbonated beverages in 2004? The same year, we spent $3.9 billion on cookies -- $244 million of which were Oreo cookies sold by Kraft Foods for about $3.69 a package. In 2003, we splurged $57.2 billion on meals at restaurants such as Denny's, Chili's and Outback Steakhouse (a personal favorite). Potato chip sales hit $6.2 billion in 2004.
"Put simply, there is a lot of money being made, and to be made, in feeding both oversized stomachs and feeding those enterprises selling fixes for oversized stomachs," Weis wrote in 2005 in the Academy of Health Care Management Journal. "And both industries -- those selling junk food and those selling fat cures -- depend for their future on a prevalence of obesity."
You know how when a steer or pig gets nice and fat it is led away to the slaughterhouse?
How can there be an obesity epidemic half the country is poor as dirt according to ZH?
Obviously the poor are not creating enough jobs,
maybe they should raise taxes, create more czars, alphabet agencies and regulations to go with them.
Poor people can't afford healthy food. The cheap, mass-produced SHIT that passes for food today is basically the same garbage they use to fatten up livestock for slaughter. Funny, the irony.
Just more of the usual-I think it is so therefore it is.
Sorry, a calorie is a calorie -one of your beloved academic elitist nutritionists who existed on a twinkie diet and lost 29pounds because a calorie is a calorie.
http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/11/08/twinkie.diet.professor/index.html
50million are getting food stamps that are not supposed to be used on prepared food anyway. Oh the irony.
When you cut down on calories, you cut down on "bad" calories too.
Read Gary Taubes.
lol, really? they haven't (and can't) even assayed the long term effects on his cell walls.
a synthetic, processed calorie is NOT a grown calorie. nothing could be farther from the truth. check back on this dude in a year.
better yet, try living on a reduced calorie diet of just sugar, bleached white flour, hydrogenated oils and let us now how that goes.
Actually, they are all the same. A calorie is the amount of heat required to raise 1 gram of water by 1 degree C. It's the other stuff that's in the food that'll kill you, not the calories.
poor people don't want healthy food. Who makes money in poor neighborhoods: fast food joints or grocery stores? You buy healthy food from the grocery, you have to prepare it. Takes a little work.
Much easier to take the welfare check to the nearest fast food place.
Lordy another troll-bot.
Don't worry I won't tap the glass or interrupt the herd that often. Disrupting a bunch of self loathing elitist wannabees can be very dangerous just look at the Federal Reserve.
Blame the jews,
buy silver,
vote Ron Paul.
seriously, RP can't do anything. if he really could he would have an unfortunate accident. even RP is just for show these days. and i voted for him in 2008.
Of course not it is sarcasm those are the three themes that cause the xkwiset pane.
Ron Paul tells it like it is. He says what needs to be done in one sentence, Then he follows with another statement with a big " However" or " Unfortunately" it would be hard to achieve. Sounds a little fluffy to me.
I got turned for a volenteer job...
I would work for Zero Pay...
Volenteer Fireman....
Let it burn... I'll have a beer...
Buy Silver bullion in a foreign account at two to one margin; do it now; there is no tomorrow. You have been told.
While reading this, think global debt saturation.
Australian Debt UpdateSteve Keen
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/03/03/australian-debt-update/#comments
The lies are becoming harder to spin at the MSM bubblevision level. Enjoy.
Aust bonds unloved...big reversal trade against the AUD soon.
It's absolutely impossible to have a meaningful discussion on this site. I post about a very real problem in private industry relating to jobs and a shift in attitude in the business community relative to hiring people and the comments that follow are about food and fat people. No wonder the country is in such trouble. Most of you are knuckleheads.
Dear Igiveup;
You are preaching to the choir. Everything you said in your earlier post is spot on with what everyone is seeing and believing. You weren't junked. Everyone here knows you are telling the truth. Can't figure out what you expected. You are among friends. No need to call us knuckleheads, knuckleheads.
(d)
And I junked both of your posts because I despise whiners. Also because I have no pity for assholes who downsize because they can't operate their business at their desired profit level.
I am a small businessman myself and have been making more money lately by working a little harder, but a lot smarter. Just because you're too old or lazy or stupid to improve your business rather than downsize it - did you feel good about letting people go? Did you ever think about across-the-board pay and benefit cuts?
I'm a little tired of hearing people's sad stories when there are people in my neighborhood - and I can't stand the guy, he's a complete jerk - who make their own way.
This guy goes around and sells advertising flyers, full page or half page ads, composes them himself or takes originals from the customer, then he pays a printer to print them up and then he personally delivers 10-15,000 of them himself. Walks the walk, delivering all of these flyers once a month. Makes a boatload of money. Lives in one of the best houses in the neighborhood.
Like I said, the guy is a cretin, but you have to admire his ambition and work ethic. Won't even hire people to walk and deliver his flyers, because he thinks he does it better himself.
So, STFU and get back to work.
"Lives in one of the best houses in the neighborhood."
He's the one with the double wide, is he?
Awesome. +100 at this late hour.
Fearless Rick: The insurance business I owned, I started from scratch. At one time, my ag business had four divisions and serviced 31 counties in the State. Each and every one of those four divisions I obtained through a bankruptcy proceeding. And I didn't get them by paying pennies on the dollar but rather offering the banks who were being stiffed a better deal than they would have gotten at through the bankruptcy. At about the same time I located an old gas station on a corner, tour it down, reclaimed the contaminated site put up a new building, started a restaurant in one side, an ice cream shop in another and leased out space in a third suite to several start up businesses who have now outgrown my facility and moved on to be successful elsewhere. I also partnered with a friend who was a general contractor building multi-family residences in a marketing operation for a pharmacy who was attempting to market compounded pharmaceuticals. We took that pharmacy from monthly sales of a particular compound of under $20,000 per month to over $165,000 per month in less than two years. In my career over the last 31 years I have provided employment for thousands of people. I did that by creating businesses out of nothing and salvaging bankrupt business and turning them around. The vast majority of people working for me right now were working for the bankrupt businesseses I acquired. And yes, I did think about across the board pay cuts. I mentioned that in the post you junked. For the salaried people, the cuts ranged from 10% to 30%. There was only one person who took over a 10% cut. That was me. And before you respond that was because I was making so fucking much money, I want you to know that the salary package I now operate under is less than the salary package the teachers in Madison Wisconsin are screaming about having to accept.
I can only assume by the tenor of your comments and your attitude, your job is delivering newspapers and working a little harder means you picked up another neighborhood and working a lot smarter means you got a bicycle to work the route rather than walking it. And as to whining about not be able to have a meaningful discussion on this site because of knuckleheads, you validate my point. Good luck with the paper route.
When conflicted with unbypassable behaviours, the US citizens tend to look for people to shift the burden of the bad consequences of the behaviour.
It is american. Here, the target is the fat poor. They are the issue, this allows to deny the consequence of a slow down in expansion.
Fuck Warren Buffet. If the real unemployment rate is 7% in 2012, I'll eat shit and howl at the moon.
(i am not even kidding).
My friends say, "Money, Money. MONEY!"...
"Gold and Silver don't pay my bills, they don't put food in my belly and they don't heat my home".
I am long and hard gold, as anyone else.
I hope it works out well for me :)
Is this graph also considering those who have given up looking for a job? Does it incoporate the rise in population and thus estimate the corresponding rise in jobs that should have occured?
I would like to see monthly data on full time jobs vs. working age population? I graphed something like that here http://www.endofinnocence.com/2010/05/population-vs-jobs-1939-2010.html, but would like to see more detailed, more clear, and more honest data, and not have to assemble it myself every month.
Not a pretty picture. We are now Spain, except they have honest numbers.
holding back jobs creation -- dysfunctional state legislatures, militant public sector unions, the huge trade deficit, and rising health care costs.
anyone bother to notice neo marxist Illinois sold 2019 bonds today at 5.19% or higher than corporate junk?
Really? 8-year maturities at that price? Obviously, Meredith Whitney was on to something. Illinois is becoming Portugal.
New York is looking more and more like Spain.
I think we're turning Japanese.
Sorry I didn't get it right.
The longest maturity in the Illinois bond deal, due in 2019, was sold at a yield of 5.877%. In comparison, a $400 million "junk" bond issued by auto-parts maker Dana Holding Corp. and maturing in 2019 had a yield of 6.24%.
Illinois officials were forced to promise a yield that is about two percentage points higher than was paid by companies with similar credit ratings in recent bond offerings. *nice to see the ratings agencies are still on top of things.
As a result of the deal, more than half of the state's $30 billion in debt outstanding has been used to shore up Illinois pension funds
For years, Illinois had failed to make actuarially required annual contributions to its pension funds, deepening the shortfall.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703775704576162350542651930.html
Hey perpetual victims when The People's Republic of Illinois lays down on this do the purchasers chasing that extra 2% get any blame?
A Message from Comrade President Obama concerning the Socialist State Workers uprising in Wisconsin:
As socialists, we stand steadfastly in solidarity with this protest movement. We pledge to support the immediate goal of blocking Governor Scott Walker’s reactionary and draconian anti-union legislation and the longer-term project of building a serious left-wing political movement in the US.
The Fed are a pile od S*** , what a joke they are. Surely they will be audited one day
This whole damned system is one big fucking cancer-- feeding on anything healthy or good and turning it into some major twisted bullshit. Fucking pathetic.
PS the unemployment rate can be 7% easily when the peasants that don't count anymore-- don't count anymore. Buffett's a douche.
why do people pay attention to any such numbers -- whether put out by the govt or put out by some pollster? we really have no clue, and should have no confidence in, how the numbers were generated. I am in Phoenix right now, and there are so many f*cking idiots on the road during rush hour driving like asshole maniacs, that I can't believe there is any problem with people who want to work getting jobs.
Here is what I have to say about all this APOCALYPSE/END OF THE WORLD/DOUBLE-DIP shit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwVap8x64As
GIVE ME A TIME/PLACE or else SHUT THE MOUTH!
Let's just start WW3. Only way we're going to bullshit our way out of this as a country is to ramp up the war machine. What better way than to get the mindless masses frothing at their mouths in nationalistic fervor, to defend themselves in some conflict designed just for them and their stupidity. They'll line up to bail out the banksters when a proper "enemy" is groomed to go up against the US.
My only regret is that I'm not "part of the group": people are stupid, and I utterly despise Americans for letting Wall Street pieces of shit get away with this. Good for them, then. The masses were fleeced once again; get on with the cover up steps...
...isn't it funny how easily people's behavior can be shaped? How easy they are to mold, to design?
just opened an account at Scott Trade (non-margin) with $750 bucks.
Need $$$ (even if it will soon be worthless).
Need it to feed myself and my ladyfriend.
BTFD? OR short everything under the sun (since another Great Depression is on the way?).
I am not a multi-millionarie like the rest of you lucky folks. I live on one-cash flow.
so who is lying about the job mkt
Hmmmmmmmmm....
Now which montra is more silly?
Drill baby Drill
OR
Print baby PRINT!
Every one can have a job. Start the war.
Of course not many may have a life later!
Fearless Rick: The insurance business I owned, I started from scratch. At one time, my ag business had four divisions and serviced 31 counties in the State. Each and every one of those four divisions I obtained through a bankruptcy proceeding. And I didn't get them by paying pennies on the dollar but rather offering the banks who were being stiffed a better deal than they would have gotten at through the bankruptcy. At about the same time I located an old gas station on a corner, tour it down, reclaimed the contaminated site put up a new building, started a restaurant in one side, an ice cream shop in another and leased out space in a third suite to several start up businesses who have now outgrown my facility and moved on to be successful elsewhere. I also partnered with a friend who was a general contractor building multi-family residences in a marketing operation for a pharmacy who was attempting to market compounded pharmaceuticals. We took that pharmacy from monthly sales of a particular compound of under $20,000 per month to over $165,000 per month in less than two years. In my career over the last 31 years I have provided employment for thousands of people. I did that by creating businesses out of nothing and salvaging bankrupt business and turning them around. The vast majority of people working for me right now were working for the bankrupt businesseses I acquired. And yes, I did think about across the board pay cuts. I mentioned that in the post you junked. For the salaried people, the cuts ranged from 10% to 30%. There was only one person who took over a 10% cut. That was me. And before you respond that was because I was making so fucking much money, I want you to know that the salary package I now operate under is less than the salary package the teachers in Madison Wisconsin are screaming about having to accept.
I can only assume by the tenor of your comments and your attitude, your job is delivering newspapers and working a little harder means you picked up another neighborhood and working a lot smarter means you got a bicycle to work the route rather than walking it. And as to whining about not be able to have a meaningful discussion on this site because of knuckleheads, you validate my point. Good luck with the paper route.
@Igiveup: Thanks for your post. when I was much younger I would have been very critical of you for not "inventing something", but the reason most of us have jobs is because of people like yourself. Most people just wouldn't try, and BTW, the incentives and disincentives we have today make fewer and fewer willing to try.
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