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GoldCore Comments On Silver Shortages And A Possible Price "Tipping Point"
Our friends at GoldCore have summarized recent shortages in the silver market and provide some observations on what this could mean for future silver prices. Curiously, the lack of inventory has happened even as the spot price of silver has consistently declined over the past week (if nominally the decline has been very modest). Just as curiously after the US Mint reported a massive surge in buying, the number of January sales has been fixed flat at 3,407,000, where it was a week ago, and indicates that either buying interest has ceased overnight (unlikely), that the mint is not updating its numbers (likely), or, worse, that the Mint has now stopped selling any form of silver for reasons unknown. Although at the end of the day the only question worth asking is whether JPM feels lucky (again): as we posted last week, the firm has received "grandfathering" protection from position limits, arguably the biggest reason for the recent drop in the precious metal price.
From GoldCore:
Silver Bar Shortages to Lead to Price “Tipping Point”?
Gold is mixed while silver is higher in all currencies today, especially in the weaker US dollar. European sovereign bond yields are higher and the UK 10-year has risen to 3.66% and is close to breaking out after inflation figures surprised the majority of analysts who remain complacent about inflation.
Gold is currently trading at $1,370.75/oz, €1,022.11/oz and £856.57/oz.
Equities in Asia were higher as are those in Europe so far today. US equity index futures are mixed with Apple leading to weakness in the Nasdaq; the S&P 500 is flat.
SILVER
Silver is currently trading $28.81/oz, €21.48/oz and £18.01/oz.
Reports of shortages of silver bullion continue to grow. While there are no widespread shortages in this area and dealers with extensive supplier networks (mints and large refiners) are not experiencing difficulties sourcing bullion inventory, it would be wise to keep an eye on this.
Silver in USD – 35 Years – (Weekly). Click for full size
Reuters reported shortages of 1 kilo gold bars in Asia last week. Sprott Asset Management reported that it was experiencing difficulty sourcing 1,000 oz silver bars. Sprott said they were concerned about the “illiquidity in the physical silver market" and said delays in being able to source physical silver highlights the “disconnect that exists between the paper and physical markets for silver."
Zero Hedge reported that Bullion Vault, the digital gold provider, had run out physical silver inventories in Germany (and possibly elsewhere) and was advising clients to buy silver from other sources.
Zero Hedge also reported yesterday that some smaller bullion dealers in the UK were having difficulty sourcing all silver bars and had delayed delivery of silver bars (including 1 kilo silver bars) until February.
This comes at a time when the US Mint has reported huge demand in the first two weeks of January for their very popular US Silver Eagle 1 oz bullion coins.
Click for full size
At about $33, €25 or £20 a coin, collectors and those seeking financial insurance have been buying silver in very significant quantities. The 2011 minted coins were first issued on January 3 and in just the first two weeks, 3.5 million coins were sold, according to numismatic web site Coin News.
In January 2009, the silver coins first topped the 3 million sales mark, with record sales totaling 3.59 million for the entire month.
If sales continue at these levels, that record should be surpassed this week. The all time monthly record of 4.26 million silver coins, which was set last November, is clearly in sight.
A recent report by analyst Adrian Douglas of GATA warns of forthcoming shortages of gold and silver bullion coins and bars, and that a “tipping point” will soon be reached that could lead to a COMEX default and a short squeeze which leads to much higher prices. Douglas himself has shown in Le Metropole Café how Comex silver inventories are shrinking and are not far from ten year lows.
The “bear raids” by the large concentrated shorts being investigated by the CFTC, are only leading to increased physical off-take. Indeed, the selling raids may be leading some participants on the COMEX (including large hedge funds) to take delivery or sell futures and buy bullion in allocated accounts.
None of the factors, in and of themselves, suggest that widespread shortages of silver (or gold) bullion are imminent in the immediate future. However, much circumstantial evidence suggests, especially the bona fide reports of difficulty in sourcing large silver bars, that the supply and demand balance in the silver market is very tight.
The more than 80% increase in the silver price seen in 2010 is not leading to an increased supply of silver but rather to a continuing and possibly increasing demand.
This is not surprising as silver is a byproduct of base metals and therefore its price increase will not have led to any material increase in silver mine production. This fact is known by most buyers of silver coins and bars and many of them continue to hold and add to their silver holdings in anticipation of much higher prices.
Silver at $50 per ounce and the 1980 adjusted for inflation price of $130 per ounce are conservative estimates for some silver enthusiasts. They have been proved right in recent years and the extremely delicate supply and demand equation in silver could see them proved right again in the coming months.
Since 2003, GoldCore have written research articles pointing out that the very small size of the silver bullion market would likely see its inflation adjusted high of $130/oz reached in the long term.
Interestingly, were gold to reach its adjusted for inflation 1980 price of $2,300 per ounce, and silver revert to its long term gold/silver ratio of 15:1 (geologically there are 15 parts of silver to every one part of gold in the Earth’s crust) then silver would reach over $150 per ounce.
While this seems über bullish to those who know little about the silver market, some silver enthusiasts - and there are many - believe that in time, silver will be valued at the same price as gold as huge quantities of silver have been used up in industrial applications since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century and throughout the 20th Century and into this millenium.
In these unprecedented financial and economic times, it is important to have a long term perspective.
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Raise rates......right......stop or the dummy gets it.
I hope not. Do you know how long it took me to find a squeegee big enough to clean the windshield now that so damn many pigs have started to fly?
Another desperate comment by a desperate silver/gold short..
Well - at least you can be assured silver/gold isn't being propped up by the gov't like APPL, so let the good times roll until the gov't gets their spending habits in order.
Well that 35' year silver clearly shows once the bubble pop's, it's going under $10 for another 20 year....
Are you high?? What exactly is backing up the US Dollar again?
40 years : median age of fiat currencies. USD is on it's downward slope of valuation.
following the US mint link the page shows currently
4,588,000 AE silver coins sold in 2011
So we've already set a new all-time record and the month is only a little over half over. If that doesn't show real demand nothing does. Paper silver can only be supressed for so long.
Pay all your government bills in cash. Federal, state, and local. What a great way to protest what the FED and our government is doing to us. This could start a really big movement and banks will run out of cash.
Paying Tuition in $1 Bills.mov
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCsP2gvFF6o&feature=player_embedded
If clowns on street corners shaking "I Buy Gold" signs and cars shrink wrapped with "We Buy Gold" don't indicate peakiness then what does?
You've got this 100% ass-backwards.
When guys on the corner are trying and succeeding in selling gold to everyone, then you may have reached some "peakiness".
Totally backwards...what an idiot. I hope he responds so we can have some fun with him Turd.
Jan. 14, 2011, 2:33 a.m. EST
Fresnillo sees record gold and silver productionMADRID (MarketWatch) -- Mining group Fresnillo PLC (UK:FRES 1,464, +25.00, +1.74%)on Friday reported record quarterly attributable gold production of 100,822 ounces in the fourth quarter, a 26% gain over the corresponding period last year, boosted by better-than-expected results from its Soledad-Dipolos mine. On an annual basis, Fresnillo cited record gold production of 368,995 ounces, a 33% gain. Silver production for the quarter rose 3.6% to 10.5 million ounces, and on an annual basis rose 2% to 42.1 million ounces. For 2011, Fresnillo sees silver production rising by 5% to 44 million ounces, as its Saucito development starts up in the first half of the year. Gold production is seen rising 8% to 400,000 ounces as Soledad-Dipolos and Cienega mines expand production. Jaime Lomelín, Chief Executive Officer, said the company's getting closer to its aim of producing 65 million ounces of silver and more than 400,000 ounces of gold by 2018
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fresnillo-sees-record-gold-and-silver-p...
peak will be when people are camping on street overnight waiting to buy pm's. i will be selling then.
What will you consider to be an acceptable form of payment? Bricks of crisp, sequential $100s fragrant with that new-money smell?
sex
Just don't negotiate with blythe masters. She'll offer a sex derivative which is really just a foot up your ass.
you ouldn't chew Blyth'e's toe nails. you couldn't jam the mail room dude in the stairwell
Look. Just remember how much it hurt when your wife left ya. When billions of people walk the fuck away from this collective conciousness of lies and cruelty and stupidity. It's gonna make you cry peaches.
Schools closed. It has aids. There's only one extractable lesson from this entire planet. It's run by complete dicks and you probably shouldn't waste your time trying co-create with them.
LOL!
OK, you got me there.
Global mine production rose again in 2009, by almost 4%, its seventh straight annual increase to reach a record high of 709.6 Moz. Output was driven higher by strong production increases in several Latin American countries as mining projects, many of which are primary silver producers, came to fruition, and by higher output in Asia, principally from China and Turkey.
Silver mine production rose by 4 percent to 709.6 Moz in 2009. Gains came both from primary silver mines and as a by-product of gold mining. Regionally, the strongest growth stemmed from Latin America, where silver output increased by 8 percent, with the most visible gains recorded in Argentina and Bolivia. Peru was the world’s largest silver producing country in 2009, followed by Mexico, China, Australia and Bolivia. All of these countries saw increases last year except for Australia, where output from the lead/zinc sector declined markedly. Global primary silver supply recorded a 7 percent increase to account for 30 percent of total mine production in 2009.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/
Spalding. You mentioned that mine production was at 709.6 Moz in 2009.
According to the Silver institute "Total fabrication demand totaled 729.8 Moz and industrial demand posted 352.2 Moz in consumption," for 2009; meaning that technology and fabrication is at over 1 Billion ounces, far outstripping mine production.
As technology applications for silver continue to grow in number and magnitude and as high recycling applications such as film continue to become an increasingly smaller portion of the total consumption, the differential will become increasingly impactful. If the global economy picks up then both industrial silver demand and mining supply will pick up as silver is primarily a byproduct of other industrial metal mining. However, given the increasing pressure of oil prices under the scenario of a global economic improvement in economics, the increased applcation for silver in areas such as solar, rfid, mirroring and other areas will likely be greater than the pickup in industrial metals mining related silver inventory up tick.
If on the other hand the economy doesn't pick up, then debts and deficits and and currency risk will accelerate even as silver minining production is likely to slip as industrial mining slips. Under the slowing global economy scenario, sovereign debt and associated risks increase and the demand for non fiat money and currency without counter party risk accelerates and that drives silver up.
In addition to all of the above, this little tid bit from an article by Ted Butler needs to be factored in: Silver; Past, Present, Future - Phoenix Silver Summit Speech
"..In 1940, there were approximately 10 billion ounces of silver above ground in the world, with half owned by the US Government. At that time, there was about a billion ounces of gold. Ten times more silver existed in the world than gold. After more than 60 years of over-consumption of silver, of drawing down and depleting the inventories built up over hundreds and even thousands of years, the relationship of how much silver exists above ground compared to gold has flipped. Now there is much more gold left in the world than silver. Currently there are up to 5 times more gold in the world than silver, depending on how you define inventory. Silver inventories have declined from 10 billion ounces in 1940 to 1 billion today. The U.S. government, the largest owner of silver in 1940, with over 5 billion ounces, now owns zero ounces. Gold world inventories, including jewelry, have increased from 1 billion ounces in 1940 to 5 billion today, according to all reputable sources like the World Gold Council..."
Duffminster
Global gold production at record high By Peter Koven, Financial Post
Peak gold? Maybe not quite yet.
Global gold production reached a record high last year, precious metals consultancy GFMS reported Thursday, defying the gold fanatics who claim that output is in terminal and irreversible decline.
"It seems we've broken away from the flat-to-down trend of the last decade," GFMS executive chairman Philip Klapwijk said in a presentation in Toronto as the company released its latest gold survey update.
According to London-based GFMS, mine production rose 2.7 per cent last year to reach an estimated 2,652 tonnes as new mines either came on stream or ramped up production. That follows a six-percent increase in 2009, which was the biggest year-over-year rise in more than a decade. GFMS is calling for another increase of more than six per cent in the first half of 2011.
From 2002 to 2008, gold production declined even as prices soared from less than $300 U.S. an ounce to more than $1,000 U.S. The poor supply-side response to rising prices led some experts to declare that "peak gold" -- the point at production reaches its historical zenith and begins to decline -- was already upon us.
Now that output has jumped two years in a row and exceeded the previous peak level in 2001, that case is getting harder to make, at least in the short term.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/Global+gold+production+record+high/4109433/story.html#ixzz1BQM3VYxF
Quoting the douche from GFMS? Nice work. Why don't you just fuck off with this propaganda?
if true, would be a significant mover as far as price is concerned
True? Come on. If you believe gov't and establishment shills. It isn't true by a country mile. GFMS is a joke.
+1
this is all gong right over your voodoo doll size head..........the TPTB are at the moment trading paper promises for physical.....promises they will never keep for the real thing...it is genius and will not last much longer....soon spot/futures and physical will completely separate and no amount of preeusre on paper prices will cuase physical to fall any further...the end !!30
You're focussing on the wrong part of the equation - if they are "buying" - then J6P is "selling" - JSP "buying" is the peakness indicater. Or put another way - I'm a silver bug and I talk it up to everyone - and no one I know - including family and friends - holds any silver. How many people do you interact with on a personal level hold any gold or silver? (not including ZH - I don't have any personal interractions with any ZH peoples - neither do you)
( Financial Times ) .............. " The failure of the mining industry to ramp up production in order to meet booming demand for gold – from 2005 to 2008 output actually fell – has been a key argument in support of higher prices. But in the past two years, mine production has risen 10 per cent and last year surpassed its 2001 level for the first time to hit a record 2,652 tonnes, according to GFMS, the precious metals consultancy. Mr Klapwijk said the rise in global mine production – which amounted to 69 tonnes last year – was not yet significant enough to have a large impact on prices, although it may knock sentiment. But he added: “If you continue to see growth, and cumulatively after 3-4 years you get production increases then you will start to see an impact on the supply-demand balance.” ........
The idea that a "ramp up in mining" will seriously alter the supply - demand balance is absurd. #1 we are living in the age of Peak Gold. #2 the paper printing will easily out-strip the mining.
exceeding a material peak supply WILL affect price rather significantly.
Even production growth during otherwise declining trends can have a serious impact.
let's see, the Financial Times. it has been what, eleven years, since their "the barbarous relic is dead" editorial? if you are reading that for your info then you are simply reading rothschild propaganda. good luck, dude. you probably take a handful of their pharmaceuticals every day as well, since they "cure" disease.
Nothing so far, because as long as the currency is being devalued, real money increases in value.
When central banks stopping creating fiat? What would happen if the big silver shorts had true position limits?
Ray Charles can see this hardly reads "peakness". Its when those corners and cars "sell gold" to scarce buyers the time to worry is near. "Sell me your "unwanted" gold" is bullish for gold and the practical economic read. Your example reads more of retail investor and successful propaganda.
peak? peak arguments are a joke. i'll tell you what peak is: it is the 22 year old assistant IT guy at your company giving you internet stock tips in january 2000 and telling you about how the money he makes trading every day dwarfs his salary. it is the HR director at your company smiling in awe as she talks about retiring ten years early because her 401k is making her so much money. it is showing up in 2005 to a real estate open house and being the 200th person to sign in.
gold? bubble? ROTFLMAO! these guys must be kidding. I get nothing but blank stares when i talk about investing in gold. of the DOZENS of people i have tried to proselytize (sorry about the spelling on that one) over the last ten years, how many have bought pm's? two! the only thing bubble about the pm markets so far is the bubble in the controlled MSM about how pm's are in a bubble. will they go straight up? no. could they correct? yes, and i hope they do. are they in a bubble? hell, no.
You have written a dumb comment sponsored by the HarryWanger school of finance.
Regardless - if trillions of freshly-printed taxpayer dollars propping up the stock market doesn't indicate peakiness, what does?
That's why gold is up.. and some dumb organization called the Fed needs to artificially inflate stocks.
I remember well how at the top of the stock market bubble all those firms wanting to buy my shares. I should have sold to them, no? Then there was the top of the housing bubble and all the retailers looking to buy homes, not to sell them., right?
Bubble in PMs? How can anyone think that such a message would sell here? A bull market has three stages, the last stage is noted to be 'mania' or a bubble. In that last stage the public rushes in and moves the asset class in question into a parabolic move upwards. What percentage of the public was in the stock-market mania as it ended? In the housing bubble as it popped? How many are in PMs right now? I'll wager less than 5%, maybe even less than 3%. But yet, these charlatans who put forth the notion that gold and silver are in a bubble move, think we are blind and ignorant of what is happening and what a bubble is and isn't. Such sophistry might sell on Yahoo Finance boards, but it won't sell here.
No doubt over the past ten years of this PM bull market there has been some severe corrections, so there will probably a few more as the bull market continues onwards, trees, it is noted, don't grow to the sky. Some will take advatage to buy those dips, others use these corrections to spread their FUD, but so far the trend has been that the buyers of the physical don't sell. Maybe the paper gold "investors" sell, but not the physical gold holders. Supplies will get tighter, prices will continue to climb and the central cause of all this (currency, financial and economic debasement) will continue on unabated until all unravels.
Discovery Channel has this show "Gold Rush Alaska"..
A few men and their sons from Oregon up in Alaska digging for gold to put their families on better financial footing because there are no fucking jobs to support families anymore.
Extreme? Maybe so but it's reality.
Get a grip, idiot. Gold peak my ass. This is just starting and in 10 years from now you have guys digging up across the US to find anything that sells for food.
Fucking idiot. Go play with yourself and shoot on your IPAD.
This global debt problem is here to stay for the comming decades.
Money will be printed for decades to come.
Finally here in Europe, the basic retail trader is also starting to get a notice of the silver markets.
In Germany, they know all to well what hyperinflation means and they are some of the largest buyers of precious metals.
The tipping point in supply/demand/reserves is already breached. Now it's just waiting untill the smokescreen blows away and the shortages become a industrial production problem.
True.
philharmonics, european bitchez!
So if the demand goes up for "Bullion" and it gets sold out....don't they make more? It looks like whenever the mint stops selling because of demand, they sell more a short while later after they prepare more. I say let the price soar and let the people that want to take up space with the leftovers of the old Film and Dental industry days pay top dollar for it. Silver demand as an industrial metal is damn low so the only way my coins can gain in value is if more suckers want to buy them and store them for no apparent reason. Up, up and away...I say.
There are many more who make coins besides the mints.
A lot of industrial silver also goes into the bullion bar production so the eagle production number are just a indication and not a guideline.
Private silver buying is way higher then most think.
What are you talking about? The vast majority of silver still goes to industrial applications, photography, jewelry, and silverware. Couple that with increased investment demand due to fears over fiat currencies and you get much higher silver prices. By your analysis gold should still be trading at $200/oz since it has barely any use outside investment.
No, no, no...gold should be at $20,000.00/oz. What the market will bare, I say. Damn logic and reason...I just want to become rich by doing nothing except holding on to some metal. Let's go...rally time, people.
So let me get this straight. One can only become rich by doing nothing except holding onto some paper that promises shared profits among common share stock holders? Your argument against metals is one people like you typically use to support buying paper. What's the deal here? Why the juxtaposition?
A second note to the miners.
Whenever demand i constantly rising and like now the price keeps about the same, we'll soon here some miners say: FUCK YOU, YOU WANT IT, YOU'LL PAY MORE FOR IT, WHATEVER THE SPOTPRICE IS.
And then is can go fast.
Exactly.
Producers will think twice before selling their precious for diluted paper at a government fixed price system based on a manipulative scheme to protect a major bank.
Spot quote is -/+ $30? Well, what does $30 buy you in terms of gas, food, shelter? Not much.
The miners and other producers like growers for example will stop selling at this price today and wait for price appreciation. The fucking goose is cooked, the game is up.
Perception is everything and perception is that paper money is worthless.
The demonitization of Silver is the bubble that will pop.
SD thumbs, I like your posts. Maybe the anti-PM crew is hoping to hold fiat long enough that the cotton will be worth more than the face amount. Like 1964 and prior quarters=>.25
Just a thought...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmFBUnoT0Wk&feature=player_embedded
If it helps, you can imagine that the narrator is a cartoon bear.
LMAO (bear reference)... I'm a subscriber to him.. He has great vids..
to pretend even for a nanosecond that the Comex silver market is anything but hopelessly corrupt is insane. sure, paper prices have gone down. Yes, actually getting the hard stuff is hard. Yes, the Treasury has sold out.
so what? so what? JPM rules with an iron fist and they say silver is not worth what people are willing to pay for it.
and that's the way it is.
12 months ago, you could still make a lot of very good deals buying below spot.
you can forget that by now.
And yes, choice is smaller everywhere.
There aren't a lot of sellers who don't know the value by now.
A few weeks of slow price movement a dollar drop from the top makes idiot doubt. Idiots who think silver would be at 1000$ in 6 months.
But that kind of microwave people is only a small part of the buyers.
Time alows you to increase holdings.
Sometimes there's a delay while they wait for the dollars on the Silver Trees to reach ripeness.
sqeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeese,
sounding like nails on a school board.
Lot of rich electronic companies need silver
to produce if they come to buy big to
secure their future production the
sky will be the limit.
And "da Bugs" are @ it again :-))))
gold:bugs
as
silver:ites
Chinese like silver very much,betting
against 1.3 billion people with a
savings rate of 30% is financial
suicide.They also like electronic
gadgets,demand for silver will
skyrocket.
dear robotrader catfish mouth uber bull with 30% of your capital invested: will you please provide the board with an update chart on zales (zlc). last week you told us everybody was sprinting to the mall to buy jewelry: how's it doing today versus silver and gold?
wud ever... who cares, it's all fake anyways
paper/physical decoupling and tipping point signs
Silver is a future on the future.
ha ha ha; an investment in humanity, infuckingdeed!
tis our moral obligation to hoard.
Such suckers at this blog. All this 'inside info' and speculation on physical shortages are all part of the 'fleece the bonehead zerohedge crowd'.
I know for certain that Turd is on the payroll of JP (he protesteth too much), and Harvey Organ...he's one cynical fk who has been shorting the whole time despite his 'whistle blower' status. See, the best place to manipulate easy marks like those here, is to play the hero, and pound you from the rear when you're not looking. Don't get me going about that Chris M., inside info guru who makes you think he's working his horn, when in fact it's you that's blowing it.
Easy marks, everyone of you. Carny's are even laughing at you.
Cartoon bear worshipers.
Wishful thinkers. Yeah right, gold is money, so is silver. O.K., everybody...swallow this greasy illusion...ready?... here it is... gold is an exchange medium, a unit of account, and a store of wealth. What idiocy! I ate some gold and it got caught in my colon. I'll never do that again.
What about that FOFOA derelict? Huh? (hey, imagine you're on an island...too funny)
By the way...I'm just messing with everyone. I'm slightly bored and a little pissed as my chick dumped me this morn, I didn't wake up with a tent, I'm getting a double chin, and my ass hurts from some experimentation I've been doing. Turd, don't take it personally : ) that I used your name in vain.
I had to junk you. Hopefully your "chick" was smart enough to take your gold and silver with her.
i can only hope that i continue to be as big a sucker this year as in the past few years with my silver bullion holdings.
Just go buy her some Tiffany jewelry
Good idea. I think, rather, that I'd head down to the happiest place on earth (Tijuana) and pick some of that fake stuff. Jewelry is the jaws of life when it comes to woman's legs.
This above note of mine, although purely joking, was literally one of the most difficult things I've tried to do. Being the devil's advocate is one thing, but being the Fed's and the oligarchs is quite another. My stomach felt sick as my fingers typed!
Can you back up your claim or are you nothing more than a guy who needs attention and has nothing better to do.
If you don't like the site and hate the Writer and poster. What are you doing here?
You ate gold and it got caught in your colon?
Are you a idiot?
You eat dollar bills to? Those metal strips must be doing wonders for your guts.
Did you know you can wash that away by drinking 2 gallons of bleach?
Ease up Sudden Debt! One of the posters here already has a date with my woman tonight, and now you, having such difficulty with talking in a cogent and caring way about my colon.
many more fish in the sea my boy; don't let them get the upper hand on you and if your lucky you'll find MS right, but no guarantees
"I ate some gold and it got caught in my colon. I'll never do that again."
Other than smuggling gold, why would you suggest you did that?
You can't eat paper either, pal.
successful troll was successful
Cheese is almost off this cracker. Cool him off or keep him in the oven.
Everybody should be advised that Goldcore, despite everything, are an Irish company based in Dublin.
Being from Ireland, and not from Dublin, this means I am as inclined to buy gold from them as I would from a travelling magician with no pants.
But you would as soon buy from a leprechaun as would I.
Tonight she's with me enjoying my
gold cockring.
you better use the silver one, as it's antimicrobial benefits you will likely need. I'm not too clean you know.
I notice the PSLV NAV is at 16% today. Great way to play silver. Sell on plus NAV and buy on the negative NAV, if there ever is one!? http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx
Yes it is.
And to goldmiddlefinger:
I CAN (and will) show you my trade confirmations.
Where can I get a real-time currency cross chart / table / whatever like the one shown here? Those reds & greens display the situation pretty well.
Wow. The silver articles bring out the true believers. Any of you guys who have been around long enough to see other tops knows rhat all this shortage and fear of missing out is typical for a top. An intermediate term top at least.
As always, there is no such thing as a shortage in a functional PM market. Shortages only occur in dysfunctional, broken markets where price discovery is hampered (usually with government's blessing).
There is always plenty of silver available for purchase if the bidder is willing to pay the seller's price. Even more so for gold, where stocks to flow is the largest of any commodity.
What remains over looked is that inventories have dropped massively and their are no true silver reserves. There are two sources pulling silver, one is increasing numbers of technological and industrial applications and the other is the same thing that drives gold, the search for a debt free, counter party free source of real money, and silver along with gold have long met that bill.
It only a question of time before the broader investment world begins to fully understand the ramification of the little checklist below. When this information becomes "common knowledge" things will change in the silver market prices in my opinion and the real value of silver will overcome decades of price supression at last:
Keep these facts squarely in front of you when investing in silver and or trying to decide whether to sell or hold. Particularly when the giant Bullion Banks that control our government attack silver as they do every single day by holding their massive concentrated short positions without let up.
1. Silver inventories have declined from 10 billion ounces in 1940 to 1 billion today.
2. There is now approximately 3.8 billion ounces of above ground gold available.
3. Silver is not only a monetary precious metal but a highly useful and irreplaceable industrial metal used in high technology, medical and other manufacturing applications.
4. Very little of the silver used in industry is recycled.
5. The historic ratio between silver and gold is about 16.
6. The current ratio between silver and gold prices is about 48.
7. Physical demand for physical silver and silver coins is at all time highs and accelerating.
So, silver is actually substantially more rare than gold and yet the price ratios do not reflect the physical reality yet. This means that the long term price suppression of silver via the extreme concentrations of short positions by one or two of the largest Bullion banks has created a sling shot of potential upward price energy. If the CTFC investigation into silver price suppression or any of the current law suites, class action or otherwise, fully reveals the degree and level of ongoing suppression, silver may quickly revert to its historical ratios, and given its increasing rarity and industrial and technological usefulness, climb well beyond its less rare cousin, gold.
Duffminster
Great compilation.
You're talking sense.
We live in the great age of confusion where so much false information is peddled as "truth" to the people that they will do about anything against their better judgement and against their God given instinct.
Everything has been diluted to a degree where "truth" and "falsehood" almost blend. People don't know where to turn, get depressed and medicate their senses.
This state of confusion may go on for a while longer but there are ultimate truth that cannot be diluted like for example "gravity", "aging" and "finite resources".
We cannot reverse the effects of gravity and pretend things will go up and never come down.
The financial magicians are modern-day Merlins that try and turn their paper into gold.
No matter how shiny and glorious the propaganda, at the end the viewer will be hungry and long for nourishment.
1 + 1 = 2
In the meantime, sit back, relax, prepare, teach your kids what is truth and enjoy a little.
Nice list Duffmeister. I would add one more comment: as long as the Central Bankers debase the currency, the value of PM's will rise. The dollar, euro or yuan amounts mean nothing, they merely confuse the investor with the concept of selling the top.
The only thing that can diminish the value of PM's would be an actual addition to the supply, for example, when the Spanish began importing huge sums of gold and silver from the Americas or when the silver and gold rushes of the 1849's pumped large amounts into the supply line.
One final note: the general population will never catch on to PM's. They will play the dollar game until it fails. How many in Weimar, Argentina, Chile or Zimbabwe held gold and silver? The working class has no idea and never will.
Well, my brother in law is catching on and he represents, I think, many middle class professionals in denial, but, yes, PMs will be very expensive in fiat by the time the majority understand.
duffminster, by chance do you have any links for any of those points you mentioned? thanks!
Jomama,
Here is the link you requested on the long term draw down in above ground silver inventories:
Silver; Past, Present, Future - Phoenix Silver Summit Speech"
Excellent, thank you.
We have not even seen the real inflation yet and they think I am going to be scared out of my PM positions? Think again.
I'm willing to hold til the end of my days. Meanwhile, back at the printing presses, a dollar will be worth about 27 cents.
Patience shall be my motto. And what I have purchased will not be any any vault for decades to come.
Man, that was excellent.
4,588,000 Ounces sold by the mint:
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/index.cfm?action=sal...
25% increase from last reported number?
Already blown past the previous high! All the stores in my local area are out of silver... time to start perusing ebay again
So you're saying the difference between silver bugs and stock market bugs is all they gotta do is buy the dip and get raped by an HFT bid offer gauntlet and silver bugs have to hunt down the dip.
The GLD trolls area all over Seeking Alpha, especially since GLD is one of the main advertisers, and the GLD ads brackets every comment post if it relates to PMs in any way. I can usually, like Turd, discern the ones here, BECUZ THEY MAKE SUCH FUKKIN STUPID COMMENTS.
Every time silver takes a hit, my phone immediately rings. The voice on the other end is always a friend who didn't buy any silver or gold and wants to gloat.
GLEEFUL FRIEND: "Silver's down to $18.00, are you getting worried? Huh? I bet you're worried... huh?"
SILVA PLATA: "You know, Gleeful Friend, I didn't just buy silver at $17.00/oz... I bought it at $12 and $13 and $15... so I'm still okay."
(Later... Silver takes another hit. The phone rings.)
FRIEND: "Ha ha, Silver's down to $28.00! Are you getting worried? I bet you're worried, huh?"
SILVA PLATA: "I bought at $12 and $13 and $15, $16, $17, $18... I'm not quite ready to trade it for a nice bank CD."
Then comes the question...
FRIEND: "Do you think I should buy now?"
classic!
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/reserve.htm
FOS
Confirmations? Notes?
FOS my ass, look in the mirror liar.
Read the posts. Why in Caesar's name would I give some whack sick troll my financial info? In other news Vince Lombardi hired as Packers coach.
There is more to the story. I was born in 1964, so I've always had an eye out for coins from that year. It was still common to get them as change even into the mid-seventies. So I suppose I'm in to Silver at $1.29/oz.
I hope you stick around, Gold MF. I enjoy your posts.
Most Washington pre 1964 quarters aren't worth much more than $5 bid-- maybe and the shops sell them for $7. Not my cup of tea. Same setup with most mid 20th century silver coinage.
I love 90% junk! I love to buy bags of the shit and I go through every single coin. One time I found a 1910 Swedish silver coin in a $100 FV bag of junk dimes. If you're in LA I recommend Wilshire Coin on Lincoln Blvd. Their prices for pre-64 junk pretty much match what you'll see on coinflation.com
I have no financial interest in the business, but I like the guys who work there. Always fair and easy to deal with.
Was using the guy in Bev Hills that's now a chain. You'd know the name. I was big on MS65 Morgans and Gold Libs. Live in Fl now and sold em all here. Hate coins. Because I love leverage, coins really don't interest me but would love to stalk estate sales if I had the time and energy.
What is wrong? Caught on the other side again?
damn - That must hurt
Where were you yesterday or today?
Not buying the dip to 1270! Waiting for 1500 I bet?
get it. Good strategy -real nice
I buy very little on the offer with 40% in the spread. You?
ahh....now I get it! goldmiddlefinger is a real wheeler-dealer.... a veritible deep well of microscopic (mis)information regarding pricing. He's obviously a fucking PM trader. Makes his money on buys & sells on a daily basis. Must be one rich SOB to be able to do that. Ok, fine - no way to beat his arguments since they apply to HFT arena. Hmmm.... then why did he say at start of thread "nobody's gonna buy this shit when price goes down" when obviously he's a buyer at the right price? Be interesting to know how much he's got stashed in his vault, notwithstanding all his hyperbole.
Ignore the idiots and they will eventually go away and-or stay in their fiat pastures.
Use your head. Gold Middle Finger. Avatar of Creature from Jekyll island....
add it up.
Ive noticed that PHYS seems to perform markedly worse than gld whenever gold takes a spill. Maybe its just a coincidence, but I remember gold getting hit (but also doing relatively well) during the crash in 2007. I wonder if phys might not do *considerably* worse than gold or GLD during a crash since its a close ended fund. I assume gld would just track the price of gold.
Just wondering if the stock market correction many are expecting could allow someone to pick up phys as a considerable discount to NAV. I also noticed that during 2007 Canadian commodity based stocks just got absolutely smashed whenever the finance people had to raise cash to cover their margin calls.
Maybe phys suffers the same fate in the short term?
And the world turns and the smart keep buying.
To all PM bears:
Thanks for shorting and thanks for selling this last two weeks,
Damn! Life is good.
WOW - No one was buying this last week.
shameful people. Shameful
gold at 300 silver at 4.00.. was a good time to buy
any one buying12,00 17.00 900 OR higher living in diapers... CAME TO THE DANCE .. at the break. silver will be 150 or higher .. gold on the way to 2200 and higher.
not much the mouth can do about it but blow wind and stand naked in the coming years .
talk about ancient history,, and stir's a large put of soup with a twig/
and those who blast the gold silver buy are in the soup.
with out a pot to piss in ,
2010's at a discount ahead of the 2011 silver eagles being delivered this week!
Thanks but my investment advisors for PM trading are the little bears and they said BTFD, so that's what I'm doing.
me too!
So what are the predictions of gold perking up again? The problem of this is, as inflation goes up, gold goes up (this is a good thing for me) but certainly is a cause for concern for the poor fucker's who have no investments in precious commodities.
I can just picture them now, Ben Berwanke and co, around the table with cigars, placing their bets on the likelihood of their next con working out for them.
Also, with such a strong infrastructure, the German economy surely are safe from an EU melt down.. Mind you, they're not the most innocent country around, I mean look how they helped Greece out - AGAINST EU LAW Germ's.
Cliché to say on a silver post I know,
But it's partly a good luck measure too - Gold bitche'z.
The Germans own that mess called Ireland. Check out their spending levels and deficits on US Debt clock. Small on innocence, big on whining.
"...I can just picture them now, Ben Berwanke and co, around the table with cigars, placing their bets on the likelihood of their next con working out for them...."
I think you can pick up a derivative on that now through the JP. Its opaque as hell but so far odds are looking good.
"...I can just picture them now, Ben Berwanke and co, around the table with cigars, placing their bets on the likelihood of their next con working out for them...."
I think you can pick up a derivative on that now through the JP. Its opaque as hell but so far odds are looking good.
*Yawn. Read the thread.
Geezus. In America, you can still spend your money on most things. Some folks blast off 1500 on a Rose Bowl Game. You can buy a 60k truck to compensate for that thumb that was supposed to be a penis. Ya see, I think wasting money on that shit is stupid. But that doesn't stop people from doing it-
I've been buyin precious metals. The truth is, I don't give a fuck whether anyone thinks it's stupid or not. So get on out there smart guys and blow half a jumbo on dinner and make sure you make that interest payment on that depreciating piece of shit you bought and subsidize the Saudi's and pay your gas tax. Those people are depending on you.
I am gonna bank that the FEDs can't stop printing and that they don't have a fucking clue how to pay a 15 trillion dollar debt that doesn't include a half trillion for Fannie or Freddie or another 1/2 trillion in student loan defaults. Just a year or two more of this shit...and we'll all be billionaires. That's how much it's gonna take to buy a weiner at that football game.
Lunatic Fringe?
Thanks for the laugh. while I know you are serious and I agree with you 100%, the way you said it still made me laugh.
Lunacy, but a very high level too. I also believe they can't control this thing for much longer.
"While this seems über bullish to those who know little about the silver market, some silver enthusiasts - and there are many - believe that in time, silver will be valued at the same price as gold as huge quantities of silver have been used up in industrial applications since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century and throughout the 20th Century and into this millenium."
I think by the time silver gets up to $100 an oz ordinary people will be coming out in droves with schemes of recycling teeth and circuit boards.
Attention: Turd, Harvey Organ, associated other manipulators are on the take!!!
AP Press
Although noted earlier in the thread, Turd has just been spotted strutting past JP Morgan with his yellow hat gleaming, surreptitiously picking up suitcases of fiat money to continue his business of piedpipering ZeroHedgers and fellow turdites into consuming colon clogging quantities of gold and silver.
/sarcasm off
As a deducated Turdite, I'll have you know that my colon is now so clogged from all the gold I've eaten that people at the ER think I literally shit gold.
Which probably explains the prices they charge for the hospital visits.
Yes kids, you CAN eat gold. But it leads to complications.
Dear Dr., thank you for getting it.
Smales; investing in gold stocks is only for pro's
the time to buy was in late 2008
your fear mongering is very boring and serves no purpose here; only the pro's make money in gold and the little monkeys must watch from the sidelines
so please stop wasting Tyler's bandwidth
thank you
.
Hi fellars, I'm new here.
I have a couple of questions, please: Are there any other comparable cases where a "tipping point" was reached? What exactly are the mechanics of such a tipping point in the case of the silver shorts? Could that be the march Comex delivery? (or failure?)
thnx
Just wondering if ZH had seen this already:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/18/462091/silver-shortage-rumour...
Fealty, love, and at least 2 children, preferably 5. For that, I'd give up my silver. The sex you'll forget or miss more than the momentary pleasure.