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Guest Post: Alert: Nuclear (And Economic) Meltdown In Progress
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Important note:
It is with a heavy heart that I am now issuing the highest level alert to my readers than I have to date. The threshold for an alert is one or more world events that personally cause me to take action.
I'm making this alert publicly available less than 36 hours after releasing it to my enrolled subscribers given its importance and the speed at which events are accelerating.
The substance of this alert centers on the unknown aftershocks that may result from the world's third largest economy, Japan, rapidly shifting from an exporter of funding to a consumer of it. In situations like these, we are by definition operating with incomplete and often confusing information, and events are developing more rapidly than they can be fully analyzed and internalized. We regret in advance any mistakes that we might make due to making calls and decisions in this highly fluid environment.
This alert warns you that major world-changing events are now underway and that your personal preparations for an uncertain future should either be completed or take on a new sense of urgency. On the basis of the information contained here and in the past two days of posts, I am personally ratcheting up my preparations, making purchases, and topping off what needs to be topped off.
Important caveat: At this point in time, I cannot fully support 100% of my concerns with hard data and evidence. Some of what has tipped me into this state of urgency is data, evidence, and stories that I can point to. Some is due to the absence of data or information, the remainder results from watching market gyrations and correlations shift into new patterns, which tell me something is afoot.
I have not been this concerned since October of 2008.
Some Background
Within hours of learning of the event at Reactor 1 in Japan, I had looked at the evidence available, drawn a few conclusions, and then checked to see what the experts were saying. Never quite sure of what sort of personal and/or professional limitations are in play, I rarely start with anyone's assessment but my own. It's part of trusting myself and it has worked remarkably well for me and my subscribers over the years.
Here's what I wrote in the blog on the morning of Saturday, March 12, 2011 on Japan's nuclear incident:
There have been reports from Japan's nuclear agency that radioactive cesium and iodine were detected outside of the facility, which can only happen if the core has been exposed somehow. Perhaps that's all under control now, but the evidence for very high temperatures, the explosion of the containment building, a 12-mile evacuation zone, and the presence of cesium and iodine all indicate that perhaps the complete situation is not being shared with the public.
If you live in Japan, you should be heading well upwind of this facility and have potassium iodide pills on hand. I would personally be reading the wind forecasts and assuring that I was upwind.
My expertise involves making sense of the world in relatively short order. It also helps me smell B.S. remarkably quickly, especially from official sources. The nuclear situation in Japan struck me from the outset as being rather more serious than described, and this has proven true. I take no pride in this particular 'victory,' and instead feel the burden of having to be the bearer of bad news.
The nature of this alert is to let you know that I consider the chance of a renewed round of economic and fiscal crises to result from the chaos that is currently engulfing Japan and the MENA region to be extremely high.
A Global Meltdown
For decades, the world has been running its own nuclear-style reaction, only in the currency and debt markets, where exponentially-accelerating piles of debt and money have spun about faster and faster in a gigantic, complex, coordinated reaction, the core of which is, and always has been, the United States.
At the very center of this ungainly money reactor is the main fuel pile itself, the US Treasury market. With any interruption to smooth flow of money through this pile, it will immediately become unstable.
The threat I see goes like this:
Stage 1: The world watches, riveted, as Japan suffers a tragic and horrible earthquake and tsunami, but as horrifying as these are, they are localized phenomenon affecting a relatively small percentage of the country. The real trouble lurks within damaged nuclear plants, which are now ruined and will never again produce electricity for Japan, creating instant shortages that will take years to remedy. Worse, a dangerous plume of radioactivity is carried south by winds. Tokyo partially empties and shuts down for all practical purposes.
Stage 2: The abrupt slow down of the world's third largest economy alters the smooth flow of cash around the globe, and even causes reversals of some other long-standing flows. Chaotic eddies emerge in a decades-old pattern of ever-increasing flows of money into and out of the money centers, and various carry-trade and other interest-rate-sensitive strategies blow up. Manufacturing in Japan screeches to a halt, disrupting just-in-time manufacturing strategies both internally and across the globe.
Stage 3: In order to fund the rebuilding effort, Japan has to buy a lot of items from foreign suppliers at the same time that its exports plunge precipitously. At first Japan simply does not participate in US Treasury auctions, leading to a shortage of buyers. But eventually Japan has to sell some of its vast hoard of US bonds in order to pay for external items needed for its reconstruction. Further, insurance companies, huge holders of US bonds, face stiff liability claims in the wake of the worst natural disaster to hit a heavily industrialized center and are forced to redeem enormous amounts of Treasury paper. US Treasury yields begin to climb.
Stage 4: Continuing unrest in the MENA region serves to keep oil elevated and local funding needs high, while Europe's weaker players (the PIIGS) continue to slip under the waves. Money continues to ebb away from the US Treasury market. Forced by circumstance, the Federal Reserve reverses its linguistic course and opens the monetary floodgates once again. There's nothing like a crisis to justify more money printing, especially to a one-trick pony (the Fed) that only knows how to stamp its hoof on the 'print' button.
Stage 5: An increasingly chaotic monetary and fiscal situation spills over into the derivatives arena, creating a number of financial accidents. Stressed governments find themselves in more of an arguing mood than a pull-together-and-sing-Kumbaya mood, and agreements are hard to come by. Banks begin to fail again, global trade falls off, unrest continues to build, and then it happens - a currency crisis.
Stage 6: Everything changes. Faster than you think.
I wish I could completely quantify and justify the reason for this assessment, but I cannot at this time. Yes, we've got some very serious market turbulence to point to:
From ZeroHedge:
Japan's nuclear crisis has deepened and we deeply regret to say that there is now the real possibility of a nuclear catastrophe. Investor panic has set in with the Nikkei down over 16.5% in two days and the Topic index down by 17% - its worst two-day loss since the 1987 Wall Street stock market crash.
The cost to insure Japanese debt has surged to a record with credit-default swaps protecting Japanese government debt for five years soaring 27 basis points to a record of 125 basis points.
One UBS trader said that the deteriorating nuclear crisis had led to "near panic across local credit-default swap markets." While most equity indices and commodities have fallen, some sharply, gold has remained resilient and is down 1% in US dollar terms and is higher in Australian dollars which like other so called 'commodity' currencies has come under pressure in recent days.
(Source)
The nuclear meltdown has led to a market meltdown. Market breaks can quickly lead to supply shortages and other unpleasant realities.
Shifting Baselines
The problem with these fast-moving situations is that everything shifts from beneath your feet and events fundamentally change so quickly that you do not have time to adjust properly before the next insult arrives.
For example, I pride myself on ingesting massive amounts of information and processing it logically and relatively completely. But right now I am overwhelmed by too many situations. I should know who the opposition leaders are in Bahrain, how many troops have crossed from Saudi Arabia, what sorts of equipment they brought (as an indication of whether they plan to stay for a little while or a long while), and so forth. But I only know that troops have crossed the border; I consider this to be a bad sign for global oil price stability, but know very little else.
And I am not entirely clear on the inner machinations of the European debt crisis any more. I am completely consumed by following the developing nuclear crisis in Japan and trying to determine how that could, will, should impact our readers in Japan, and the world economic landscape.
The problem is captured perfectly in this post by Debu:
Another slightly surreal day in Tokyo which I largely spent buying food in case we have to stay indoors for an extended period due to fallout and/or if food supplies are disrupted by distribution problems. (I have been remiss in my prepping, I admit. I will spare you my lame excuses as to why.) Near pandemonium in some supermarkets which surprised me given the generally anodyne tone of the reactor situation coverage on the TV. Possibly it is simply worries about empty shelves feeding on itself.
Still, despite the devastation a few hundred kilometres away in the areas affected by the earthquake/tsunami (words fail), in Tokyo we are only inconvenienced in trivial ways. And so, the sense of unreality. There were emails today from my Japanese mates saying they were resigned to there being no hockey for awhile because the rinks will be closed because of the power cuts (and serious damage to the roof of our home rink). Or, whether it is milk is hard to come by (but still lots of wine and whiskey available), or some shops are closed to save power, or limited train service, etc. it is all inconsequential trifles. Given what is happening up north it is enough cause a bit of survivors' guilt.
Many thanks to all on this forum for the info and the insights. It has, and will continue to be I suspect, my best source of information and advice.
One name for this process of only very slowly coming to grips with an enormous change when it happens at a slow enough pace is "shifting baselines." It means that if you had put these same people to sleep a week ago and woke them up today, the shock of the reality of today's situation would immediately jar them into action. But somehow, as things change seemingly gradually from hour to hour and day to day, the change itself can prove oddly paralyzing, and this is because our baselines shift. What would have been abnormal yesterday is normal today.
Last week the residents of Tokyo were sympathizing with the plight of their neighbors to the north, and then they were hearing about some controllable problems with some nuclear plants, and then they were hearing about maybe some more serious difficulties, and today they find themselves scrambling to empty store shelves and get out of Dodge, so to speak.
(Reuters) - Radiation wafted from an earthquake-stricken nuclear power plant toward Tokyo on Tuesday, sparking panic in one of the world's biggest and most densely populated cities.
Women and children packed into the departure lounge at an airport, supermarkets ran low on rice and other supplies and frightened residents, tourists and expatriates either stayed indoors or simply left the city.
"I'm not too worried about another earthquake. It's radiation that scares me," said Masashi Yoshida, cradling his 5-month-old daughter Hana.
The nail-biting eased in the afternoon after Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano appeared on national television saying radiation levels at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power complex had fallen dramatically since morning.
But confidence in the government is shaken and many decided not to take chances, especially after radiation levels in Saitama, near Tokyo, were 40 times normal -- not enough to cause human damage but enough to stoke fears in the ultra-modern and hyper-efficient metropolis of 12 million people.
Many hoarded food and other supplies and stayed indoors. Don Quixote, a multistory, 24-hour general store in Tokyo's Roppongi district, was sold out of radios, flashlights, candles, fuel cans and sleeping bags on Tuesday.
At another market near Tokyo's Yotsuya station, an entire aisle was nearly empty on both sides, its instant noodles, bread and pastry gone since Friday's earthquake and tsunami killed at least 10,000 people nationwide and plunged Japan into a twin nuclear and humanitarian crisis.
(Source)
Time to Prepare
Okay, folks, this is not a drill.
Events have now sped up to the point that we cannot predict what will happen next. At this point a systemic banking crisis, complete political upheaval in one or more countries, a currency crisis, or a debt crisis are all within the realm of the possible.
This is the most difficult Alert I've ever had to write, because I know I have not yet processed all the necessary information to truly assess the risks. I am operating on gut instinct here, and several of you have already reminded me to trust myself. Thank you. That's what I am doing now.
The risks I am most concerned about striking outside of Japan are:
- A derivative-fueled banking crisis. Another banking crisis could shut down international monetary flows for a period of time, which would severely impact your ability to access your money, conduct trades, or otherwise take care of business.
- Critical shortages. Already we know that much of Japan's manufacturing output will be crippled for a while due to quake damaged plants being destroyed, workers failing to show up as they attend to their families in a moment of deep crisis, and electricity shortages due to destroyed power plants being taken permanently off-line. How much and which products will be affected will take weeks of effort to discover, as our highly integrated global supply network has an unknowable number of nodes that originate in or pass through Japan.
- A global GDP insult. Building on the idea of critical supply chain disruptions and shortages, it is a safe bet that the world economy will take a hit now that various products cannot be manufactured and sold. Rather than a gentle slow-down that can be easily managed, the risk I see here is akin to a large wrench being tossed into a delicate transmission. The risk springs less from how much you slow down, but rather how fast you do it. This global GDP hit will further expose the weakness at the periphery, probably taking down the weaker players once and for all.
The main story line here is that Japan is a critical and embedded player in both the financial and productive economies, and it has suddenly, almost instantly, been taken off-line. We don't know what might happen next, but we should be prepared for anything.
My Advice
Recently I had advised readers to be ready for a big downturn linked to the idea of a QE cessation. I am going to retract that somewhat (almost entirely), because this Japan crisis will provide all the political cover necessary for more printing.
Nonetheless, a market rout is on, but for entirely different reasons than I first projected.
At any rate, the time to move to cash from stocks is slipping quickly past, if not already gone, but if you haven't made that move yet, you should consider waiting for the next "Bernanke bounce" in which a few hundred billion are tossed into the kitty to stabilize the markets.
This alert is going to be a living document in the sense that I will be constantly updating it as time goes on and events unfold. The first stage of my advice centers on the basics. You need to have all of your basic preparations completed at this time. Food, water, medical kits, shelter, cash out of the bank, and all the rest should absolutely be in place at this time.
Get the basics done. Now.
- If you live on the west coast of the US, you must prepare for a fallout event even though this is extremely unlikely due to the distances involved. The concern here is that nearly 40 years of spent fuel is stored onsite and apparently boiling away its water and possibly burning. This means buying KI tablets for at least a week for every member of your family and being prepared to spend up to a week 'taped up' inside your house if it comes to that. Plastic, duct tape, and board games are what you need. I hate having to even suggest this sort of preparation. But while remote, there's always the chance that a quirk in the air flow patterns could lead to less dilution than expected across the ocean and that a relatively small area of the west coast could receive a surprisingly strong concentration of contamination. Again, this is very remote, but so was the idea of four plants all melting down at the same time.
- Get what cash you can out of the bank. You can always put it back later on. Keep it somewhere safe.
- Move any money you can from less liquid to more liquid vehicles. You want to be able to access your money in a hurry should that become necessary. Re-read Taking Control of Your Personal Finances if necessary. I outline all the reasons and a few methods for 'becoming more liquid.'
- Top off your fuel tanks.
- Buy extra food at the grocery store.
- Have long-term storage food put aside.
- Take medicines? Be sure to get extras.
I am still holding onto all of my gold and silver holdings as I cannot imagine any possible policy responses that will bolster anyone's faith in fiat currencies. That said, I am expecting short-term declines, possibly significant, in the US paper price for these metals on the basis of a liquidity crisis skimming the speculative component of their price off the top. I really don't know how much this will be, but it's certainly not insignificant.
When you stock up on things at the store(s), think also about friends family, neighbors, and all the other assorted people you care about who have almost certainly done little or nothing to prepare. What would they like? Don't overlook comfort and luxury items that command a mental premium in a time of crisis. Chocolate comes to mind.
Timing
As always, I have no idea if anything is going to transpire or not, or when. How's that for indecisive? But I can tell you that the pressures are larger than they’ve ever been throughout this long emergency and that conditions are ripe for an avalanche. My sincerest hope is that this will all blow over. But hope alone is a terrible strategy, and so we prepare.
My best guess is that the situation in Japan will unfold over the next two weeks, with a full blown funding and fiscal crisis (of confidence) blossoming there over that time. Already we are seeing credit spreads on Japan's sovereign debt begin to skyrocket, meaning that an increasing chance of a sovereign default is being priced into the debt markets. This is the same dynamic we saw with Greece, then Ireland, Iceland, too, and so on. Only this time it is happening to the world's third largest economy.
Two weeks after that, I expect that the first real product shortages and associated work stoppages will begin to hit the US and European economies. I expect the difficulties to surface first in Europe followed by the US. Somewhere in this zone we will get the next solid commitment to print, print, print, probably as a joint exercise of both continents.
Taken together, I think we've got at least a month until things have shifted enough that preparations will become either difficult or irresponsible.
Use this next month very wisely.
Remember, it's better to be a year early than a day late. So get out there and prepare responsibly.
Above all, it is our duty to remain calm, focused, and helpful to those around us. We are all experiencing anxiety and fear to greater and lesser degrees. It is my hope that we can use the privacy of the comment thread below to work through whatever issues arise for each other, whatever those may be, and to help each other make the best decisions we can in an increasingly chaotic and uncertain environment.
Welcome to the nexus of multiple exponential curves. We always knew things would speed up along the way, and so they have. Let's do the best we can.
Events are unfolding in a manner entirely consistent with the framework I laid out in my recent Guide to Navigating the Coming Crisis. As the report predicts: things are speeding up, events are progressing from the outside in, and soon enough everything will be substantially different than you remember and it won't be completely obvious how that happened due to the phenomenon of shifting baselines. Reading it should be a particular priority for those with family or substantial investments to protect. Click here to read the free executive summary.
Below you will find the original post I started on Saturday, hours after the explosion in the first reactor. It has since become a primary source on the unfolding tragedy for tens of thousands of people around the world - largely due to the extremely knowledgable contributions of experts in the CM.com community. More to come as circumstances develop.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
A Note on Prepping Responsibly
To prepare responsibly, you should do it before a crisis hits, when there are plenty of goods, food, and other necessities available for purchase and your purchases actually increase the local resilience of your community. After a calamity has struck, say after the earthquake in Northern Japan, then any buying or accumulating you might do can be perceived as an act of hoarding, something we'd like to see everyone avoid.
If you have not done so, you need to be sure that you have covered all of the basic steps recommended in our What Should I Do? guide.
At the very least, you'll get peace of mind and have the chance to be among the people who are in a position to help others when the time comes. At the most, it could be the difference between a rather miserable piece of time spent wishing you’d done more to prepare and a relatively comfortable stretch of time.
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Just FYI, but the Japan quake occurred on 3/11/2011, and I'm not sure how many reputable "scientists" suggest that the Mayan calendar predicts any Acpocalyptic event.
Adjust for Mayan time zone.
post of the week award
Is that like Daylight Ending time or something?
Depends on whether the Mayan's started their calendar with a zero or one. This might be the year forecast.
Oh damn, my eyes are a tearin..
Your "reputable scientists" suggest that according to their science, bees do not fly!
reputable scientists
the world is awash in lies
science is bought & paid for by and large, results are tailored to meet the expectations of the payor
those who worship at its altar are fools
speaking of bees...
did you know that on some flowers there is literally an arrow painted on them in ultraviolet light?
and bees see in ultraviolet? it's like a landing strip
beautiful
numbers are finite, the imagination is not!
Don't forget water. Without water there can be no life.
As long as enough liquidity is pumped into banker bonus pools everything will be fine.
The more they get, the more they have to lose, the more frightened they get. The more they realize that thier wealth will not get them any farther ahead or save them. Sux to be a billionaire. They sell their soul to get into the club and then realize it's not all it's cracked up to be. Buy all the gold--nope can't do that or you'll crash the fiat system and we'll kill you. How do you protect that much fiat wealth? There is no answer to that question.
I'm in a reflective mood, as I've been stunned by shit I never thought I would see (the last 10 years have been WILD), so I will reflect on this.
All the best laid plans of mice and men--- Milestones
has anyone seen my mommy?
argggg yen off a cliff
Off a cliff? I get 79.35 with an almost continuous drop.
Holy fucking shit.
lol and the rest!
Ow please Chris Martenson, spare us your stupid 'end of the world' bullshit, especually for US western coast residents!
It seems as if everybody, from tree-hugging anti nuclear activists to 'it's the end of the world, go fuel your car' doomsayers are jumping on the bandwagon of this whole disaster in Sendai!
It's a total insult to the REAL victims of this disaster: the people of Japan!
yeah, we wouldn't want to hurt anyone's feelings. Call your therapist and pay to go weep.
The only ones that need therapy is fear-mongering idiots!
Do us all a favor: go live in a treehouse somewhere, like Ted Kaczynsky, far away from society!
The simple fact is that you post on this website, which generally pushes an agenda with which you disagree, so you're the one with the problem.
Ow fuck off! Go live in the Amazonian forrest with your fully fueled car, a sharpened pencil to cross off the days on your Mayan calendar, gold coins, candles and dry matches!
You guys need to get laid more often!
Again, I doubt we're the ones with the problem.
Observation: those most anxious about the current uncertainty are also the least prepared and most likely to become emotionally unstable and desperate. That's why the rest have extra ammo.
I don't usually respond to assholestrolls like you but just so you know there are a good number of women on this site and I for one get laid quite frequently... by my husband of 35 years... geriatric sex with an old friend, nothing quite like it, thank god for viagra.
with a name like "goat rider" getting laid for you is easy
Well Said Lady.
So, what Key do u want to Escape 2?
Don't get your hopes up, it's (my avatar) Anna Chapman. A sexy, but incompetent, Russian spy. Just 'cos she doesn't have her tits out doesn't mean she isn't attractive.
Perhaps some role play?
I am embassy official, you are devushka spy?
Must be female.
Heh, sorry, but I can confirm I'm definitely male.
eeeeuuuuu gross, ok, forget it then
EWWW ! gross; you shouldn't pretend to be a girl, you're bad for my sexual confusion, and that makes my psychiatrist upset.
People with such avatars are usually fat ugly bald guys who sit behind a computer all day looking for a website that confirms their tin foil hat believes.
Seriously, go out to a bar and try to find some REAL punani, instead of downloading it... ;-)
xxx
Oh really? Unlike someone who consciously seeks out doomer websites so he's got something to whinge about?
you sound like an un-original troll with bad manors?
do i have this picture about right?
I have a treehouse, I live in a tree!
Wife name Jane, Cheetah makes three!
We are so happy we three in the tree!
We need none of your society!
wrote a song about it, like to hear it? Here we go.
Hey!
Go fuel your car!
I would dare say most are not afraid of the end of the world.
I am not, I am ready whenever it happens.
What I do get perplexed about, and troubles me, is WHAT is leftover if it doesn't, (it wont), but we are in the unenviable positions of having to make choices NOW, for things we know not.(we just know we HAVE to make choices, some really bad ones).
That is the anxiety I feel.Anyone responsible for a family must think about these things, and prepare accordingly.
Hoping, they never come to pass,even while their coming down the slope at you right now.
Has anyone on this board, ever seen more helter skelter, than since the crash of '08?.
Not me, all our lives have been forever altered, and will be yet again,daily.
I think I'll have some phucking stout and ale tomorrow.
I'm thinking pizza.
Long pizza and beer!
Can we short the living piziss out the big banks yet?
Can we? Huh, can we?
BRING IT ON!
It is coming to a head for sure...
You can feel it in the collective "zeitgeist" - it is unmistakable to anyone who is paying attention and/or looking for it.
The bad news...for everyone out here that is even a little prepared...there are 100 or 1000 or maybe 10000 people in the U.S. who are not...and will have no idea it's coming. These are the people to be afraid of. The people who know more about American Idol than they do about American history...these fucking people scare the shit out of me...look around the next time you go out in public and picture some of the people that are around you in a "survivalist" mode. hahaha - funny...but very alarming!
So...let's hope that we can somehow find a way out of this mess...before the whole thing comes down - and fast.
These people frighten me also and I know that the military is frighten of them as well. The problem is that once the apparatus is deployed it becomes difficult for the soldiers to differentiate between myself and the zombie hoards. Also history has shown that the military is not always controlled by decent men.
I'm going to fast for a day or two to practice my mental state and I'll have plenty of time afterwards to fatten up. If I haven't done it in a while it gets pretty nerve racking as the hours pass. Also the toxins really start pouring out right away. That would just suck to deal with that during a real problem. The really fat people will have a very hard time if food is an issue.
Scare-mongering.
Gone liquid: YES.
Ready to buy when there are bodies in the street: YES.
Ready to buy more, when the spent fuel poolin reactor #4 goes critical and shoots up a plume of plutonium-uranium-cesium-strontium-iodine mixture in the air in vast amounts: double YES.
Funny, but the Black Swan now seems to be that everything will be ok.
Funny, but the Black Swan now seems to be that everything will be ok.
FUCK that's perfect
nail meet hammer
next black swan event = a quiet week without anything happening = ben prints money in panic because nothing is happening
This concerns me first... "Manufacturing in Japan screeches to a halt, disrupting just-in-time manufacturing strategies both internally and across the globe."
Many sub assemblies made in China are put together in Japan, USA, etc, to make completed products.
If you discover next week that your vehicle needs new brake calipers, a new fuel pump and injectors, or you have need of new tires, your auto repair guy is going to tell you that the parts you need are on forever back order.
...and, junk yards that used to have lots of used parts have been picked almost clean because of the stupid 'cash for clunkers' program.
So where are parts to keep vehicles on the road coming from? Assuming that fuel continues to be available...
...and auto parts only one aspect of JIT manufacturing. What about aircraft, heavy equipment, etc, parts?
Bingo.
The first shortage might be in something weird and trivial, and everyone will play it down, but then there will be more, and important things to come. Then there will be growing panic. The interconnectedness is the issue. We will adapt, but it will get harder each time.
Don't be silly. We won't need old parts - Ben will print us all new cars.
Why do you think you'll need to go anywhere? Cars? Don't those need fuel?
No, sorry, you can't ride on my handlebars.
Life didn't end in Europe when Chernobyl happened. In fact, it hardly missed a beat. Neither was there any shortage of food, fuel, or anything else. I remember that Welsh lamb went down in price because some people thought the fluffy lambykins might have eaten some radioactive grass, or something equally farfetched. The rest of us filled our freezers and ate like kings.
Chernobyl was out in the boonies. This one is rather urban. There are many other differences but this one will do.
Nothing changed? I seem to remember the wheels coming off the Soviet Union in the years after Chernobyl. Unlike the Soviets, the Japanese are more entwined in the world's economic fabric. There will be significant effects, and no one is smart enough to predict them.
tumescent, what is this?
I'm having a hard time figuring that out.
What happens in Baracks pants when the Klingon he is married too gets jiggy..
It is a perfect "test" case for many to prepare.
Most everyone knows a moonbat survivalist, by now.
They know where I'm at. They can contact me freely. As far as telling friends and relatives to finally wake? No, fuck no, I'm done. Well, still working on a few neighbors, maybe for my own ass protection.
The banksters created this fragile money position, and they were doomed to fail. IF this sets it off, so be it. Many here at ZH, have imagined these senerios, for years. Stressed out, while others call us alarmist and continue living a shallow existence.
I will go to the atlantic ocean in a few weeks and enjoy myself. Take the summer off and camp in luxury, thinking it may be the last of the good times.
Same here. Just booked one last trip out west to soak up as much snowboarding as I can. I don't imagine I'll have the opportunity for many more years. Oh, btw: as a pharmaceutical industry insider I have received multiple ominous signals this month. I'm begining to think that several top-10 pharmas that I routinely deal with have completely cooked their books...
YEs go a head kill yourself chicken shit . Writing lettter like this means you died 2 ca before any radiation got you.
MASSIVE AMOUNT OF RADIATION WILL SOON BE RELEASED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE :shock: AND REACH THE U.S.
Alert: Radiation from Stricken Japanese Plant Reaches Alaska http://www.infowars.com/alert-radiation-from-stricken-japanese-plant-reaches-alaska/
40 years of spent fuel rods were stored on site and on TOP of the reactors in cooling/containment pools. http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/accidents/6-1_powerpoint.pdf
And the TOPS of those reactors blew, throwing these spent rods all over the place, or at least vaporizing the water, and exposing the spent rods. :shock:
The Fukushima Daiichi plant has seven pools dedicated to spent fuel rods. These are located at the top of six reactor buildings – or were until explosions and fires ravaged the plant. On the ground level there is a common pool in a separate building that was critical damaged by the tsunami.
Each reactor building pool holds 3,450 fuel rod assemblies and the common pool holds 6,291 fuel rod assemblies. Each assembly holds sixty-three fuel rods.
In short, the Fukushima Daiichi plant contains OVER 600,000 SPENT FUEL RODS :shock: – a massive amount of radiation that will soon be released into the atmosphere.
From: Alert: Fukushima Coverup, 40 Years of Spent Nuclear Rods Blown Sky High
http://www.infowars.com/alert-fukushima-coverup-40-years-of-spent-nuclear-rods-blown-sky-high/MANY EXTRA DANGERS IN USING PLUTONIUM IN MOX FUEL REACTORS http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/mox/puupdat4.txt
Have geiger counter, will travel...
And the TOPS of those reactors blew, throwing these spent rods all over the place, or at least vaporizing the water, and exposing the spent rods. :shock:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Choose:
___ Mis-info
___ Dis-info
___ Bad-Info
___ OK
Pools Storing Spent Fuel May Present Biggest Risk at Fukushima (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/pools-storing-spent-fuel-may-pr...
The greatest danger at the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant may come from the pools of water holding spent fuel THAT SIT ON TOP OF THE PLANT'S SIX REACTORS.
No disagreement there ...
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Reactor Disaster Pics http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=203287.msg1215845#msg1215845
I see a Unit 3 Building completely blown up so I see no roof on it anymore. Do you?
- - - - - - - - - - - -
We covered that several days ago, when it happened! Where have you been?
See this post for discussion on Bldg #1:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-explosion-update-core-presume...
See this post for discussion on Bldg #3:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nhk-reports-explosion-white-smoke-risin...
Fuel - Spent Fuel On Top BWR Reactor System http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Fukushima%20-%20Daiichi%20Reactor%20Design/005bOysterCreekReactorFuel-SpentFuelOnTopBWRReactorSystem.jpg
Source PDF - http://econtent.unm.edu/cgi-bin/showfile.exe?CISOROOT=/nuceng&CISOPTR=33&filename=51.pdf
Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) Systems http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/teachers/03.pdf
From: Alert: Fukushima Coverup, 40 Years of Spent Nuclear Rods Blown Sky High http://www.infowars.com/alert-fukushima-coverup-40-years-of-spent-nuclea...
- - - - - - - - - - - -
So, what's held at the Mutsu Facility? Nothing? (If 40 yrs are at Daiichi, then ...)
And what's been shipped to the re-processing facility? (Nothing?)
That does not make sense ...
Anybody want to check infowars numders can do so here with the raw doc:
http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/accidents/6-1_powerpoint.pdf
Which brilliant engineer/scientist decided to store the spent rods ON TOP of on line nuke reactors?
Their thinking...
'Yeah, lets save some money by making this a multi story building and putting the spent rods on top of the reactor...if the damn thing blows up it will be far in the future...after we are retired.'
These azz hats should be designing derivatives...maybe the same clowns are doing both?
My hat is off the the one GE engineer that walked...
I'm sure it seemed like a bright idea at the time ... not so much now ...
Don't worry, all the new reactors have got all these little niggles ironed out. I promise!
Those of you who have seen the movie where the star walks under a perverted version of our atomsphere looking for sustinance and a way to less a hell - and how it has motivated you will make sure that does not happen to you and yours - more power to ya.
Thinking it sucks will ensure it does.
Me? I wanna be front and center so I can sink my teeth into the meat of this feast. See how far humans can really go - in any direction - in REAL life.
Thinking I can make things better when it all starts over (cause I am so smart) is EXACTLY how we got here. Good luck with that.
Holy shit! 150p spread on GBPCHF. 50p spread on GBPJPY--down 500p in last 25 minutes.
We're off next week for uninhabited islands in the S Pacific. Some good ones have nobody around for 500 miles.
Just make sure the islands don't have a history of disappearing during a typhoon.
Otherwise its all good...
~Misstrial
Yeah, that sounds like a great way to survive a Tsunami.
Just FYI - CM has been saying this for along time now:
"Remember, it's better to be a year early than a day late. So get out there and prepare responsibly."
Here's the thing with all of the breathlessly self-satisfied, foolishly self-advertising "prepared" survivor-wannabes: In the event of a real catastrophe, won't there be many, many more of the unprepared, than there are of you? And won't they just take everything from you, thanking you for your foresight and your prudent preparations?
As a souvenir of Y2K, I bought my relatives t-shirts that proclaimed they were official members of the Pillage and Plunder Team. Their motto was "We don't stockpile".
LOL ... cough - cough ... still recovering ... good one!
Rod Serling wrote a Twilight Zone episode called "The Shelter". It starts off with neighbors gathered at the home of a local doctor to celebrate his birthday with a beautiful cake and party. Everyone is happy and cordial until an announcement on the radio that radar has detected objects over the north pole, possibly missiles, headed for the U.S. The doctor and his family have a bomb shelter he built over the years and they immediately go into it. The neighbors have nothing like it and many become angry when the doctor refuses to let them in, even though the shelter can only hold three people. Within 15 minutes, the formerly genteel group of friends has found a large pipe and they proceed to use it as a battering ram to knock down the door of the bomb shelter. Just as the door fails, the radio announces that the objects seen on radar were not missiles, just a satellite, and the whole thing was a false alarm.
Thanks ...
part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3Vxx7FwoyE
2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4drosYSvBz0&feature=related
3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMClf5zqG0A&feature=related
Thank you for the reference.
Let's all hope and pray that the dangerous situation in Japan will dissipate over time.
hoping and praying have a very poor win/lose ratio for solving major engineering problems.
that was one chilling episode
Flimsy shelter though, wouldn't have done any good
Their Prius will run out of gas.
The GPS won't work.
The iPhone map app won't load.
It will get dark.
They won't be able to walk more than a mile in sandals.
Dogs actually barking and biting not wagging tail will make them run.
Sight of a 6-shot revolver will make them pee their pants and run and try to dial 911, on iPhone, with dead battery.
More global co-operation under truly righteous leadership perhaps...
The harsh reality is that in event of a real catastrophe, most people will only have enough food for a few days, most grocery stores will run out of food in two to three days, provided there is a viable fiat currency that still has any value, as the supply chain will surely break down.
The human body can survive without food for roughly one week if there is adequate amounts of available potable liquids and without water, three days is about the limit. Those of us "survialists" that have actually prepared for the impending doom that currently besets our planet will have no sympathy for those that have not.
Have fun in whatever afterlife you're headed for!
Not before me and my tribe break out the AR 15's and AK 47's. Bring it on. And when I run out of food I may eat a couple choice human steaks!
Don't tell me, let me guess. You haven't prepared right?
That statement from the unprepared is like the "Ya can't eat gold" statement from another group.
No, you fail to forecast dramatic slowdown of the Chinese economy and collapse of their housing market. Deflation, bitchez!
Daiichi Reactor Design http://www.anengineerindc.com/2011/03/daiichi-reactor-design.html
If they are able to take your stuff, you obviously forgot something in preparation.
Don't matter none what you got, baby, or how much you got of what you got, 'cause there's always already more than enough others to take it. It's just numbers, man....--
As usual we mere mortals will muddle through ...
STFU ... & ... BTFD ....
http://www.amazon.com/Illusion-End-Jean-Baudrillard/dp/0804725012
Contemporary philosophy on the illusion of the end.
Nuclear Crisis: NRC Says Spent Fuel Pool at Unit Four Lost Massive Amounts of Water http://abcnews.go.com/International/japan-nuclear-crisis-nrc-spent-fuel-pool-unit/story?id=13146516&page=3
The NRC ! The NRC are the useless asshats that approved this plant design in the first place. Another federal regulatory agency that couldn't regulate Lucy's lemonade stand. ARRGGH!
ChrisMartenson.com is being bombed right now. It's crawling. Anyways, I exited the market on Monday as I was planning to soon anyways. I have more than enough supplies on hand and food in the ground to last a long, long time. What a long strange trip...it's gonna be...To the batcave! (OK, after I finish my beer)
maybe wikileaks just pissed?
Who is selling the fear ?
Why aren't people putting things in perpsective ?
The main problem is the supply of food, clothing, water and fuel. Japan doesn’t need cash, they need help with internal distribution. The Nikkei bounced yesterday as I thought it would (but I don't post my financial advice here) but the economy is going to face real problems. Their current fiscal discipline is so tight that they don’t have much wiggle room. The idiot dark greenies in various countries, e.g. Germany, are screaming for the shutdown of the nuclear industry worldwide which would be ridiculous. (See my previous comments re. the potential benefits of nuclear power.) The dignity, calm and grace of the Japanese people is remarkable. I really do like the Japanese. So in summary things are critical but human ingenuity, perseverance and courage will prevail. It is hard to believe in incredible times like these that the universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive. We are being tested.
What can we do as individuals ?
Prayer, vigilance and right action. The universe is held together by the threads of goodwill.
G-d bless Japan !
get stoned†
Thank you. We have way too many "Japan experts" blabbing who know nothing. I a appreciate your level headed comments
"It is hard to believe in incredible times like these that the universe is stable, ordered, benevolent and expansive"
is that a Rubik's cube or a Warehouse full of Kool-Aid?
pal, we all know you can solve the world's problems by positive thinking; except for the killers which are an inconvenience to your right-minded, utopian, dream-scape
not sure what planet your living on!
The system was already going to go down sooner rather than later. But sooner just moved up.
But avoiding a hyperinflationary collapse, is harder, when everyone starts throwing even more money at the problems to try to mask real problems and shortages. (it was already happening WITHOUT a natural disaster, now it's happing without one and WITH ONE)
Glass-Steagall won't solve all these problems, but it still is the best way forward, even during these times. Cancel the bad debt, and keep Weimar Ben from pushing buttons. We're going to need to create a lot of credit WORLDWIDE to get out of this mess (economically, and with japan's disaster, and with worldwide reconstruction from probably civil wars).
This is going to take a lot of GENUINE credit, we simply do not have the leeway to pay for fraud.
Glass-Steagall is now needed more than ever, and while it won't solve every problem, only within such a system would recovery be possible without a new dark age. (and no, credit can be UTTERED, it does not NEED to be lent from private sources).
The pressures of deflation and inflation at the same time, both went up. Destruction of real wealth on one end, destruction of monetary wealth derived from real wealth, coupled with the chairsatan's (and others) printing....while being up to Andre the Giant's neck in FRAUDULENT, FAKE debt that has been foisted on us in a needless fashion.
Cancel it via Glass-Steagall, and do not let the central bankers hit the add zeroes button on the computer. Remember there is a BIG difference between throwing money down a monetary hole, and credit for productive products that add wealth back.
He who panics first lives to panic another day.
He who panics first always has money in his pockets.
Who has that guy 6 months ago who said...'I recommend that you panic'?
Hugh Hendry
Wow...this thread is a veritable cornucopia of wanton doomerism.
Got a lot of people stocked up and getting REAL IMPATIENT for the end of the world to happen. No wonder the tenor is what it is around here. Buncha idiots.
Please do everyone a favor and BUG OUT NOWWWWWWWWWWW.
Quick question...wtf are you gonna do if your bugout ranch happens to be directly downwind of the fallout?
STFU Frodo and keep buying NFLX, and don't forget to stop by at K-Mart to get your King Cobra sixpack (paid with foodstamps) cuz it's WWE wrestling stars on TV tonight!
Keep that finger up, now we all know it's there cuz you are trying to cover the sun with it you racist moron!
i saw some of >that< ((trav)))but, ya but, I dinna know if it was that baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad<period_goes_here>
Yup; ignore prep and wait for the unepected tsunami and meltdown . Sure all of the people dead and dying appreciate your viewpoint. Idiot
Empirical evidence documents that earthquakes have occurred about a week or two before super moons. Don't know about the Saturn Jupiter positions, but gravitational forces ARE affected by the moon and planets position relative to the earth. I live in Seattle and we have been having the wildest weather the past 2 weeks, high winds and torrential down pours, thunder and lightening, not just the usual steady rain and drizzle. Everyone is commenting about it. As for unusual animal behaviors, I experienced one this morning while walking along the shoreline on Alki beach. My walking partners and I heard this weird screeching sound coming from the water or rocks at the shoreline. We were trying to figure out what kind of bird would make such a sound. As we stood and watched, we saw 2 otters swimming near the shore, the source of the noise. In 10 years of walking most mornings, we have seen otters only a few times. Maybe just coincidence and maybe not.
From earthfiles.com :
Update 1:30 PM Pacific March 16, 2011 - U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chief Reports All Water Gone from Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool,
But Japanese Officials Deny That.
- U.S. Government Warns Everyone within 50 miles (80 km)
of Fukushima Nuke Plant Should Stay Indoors or Evacuate.
Report upcoming.
U. S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin told a San Francisco medical audience last night, “Be prepared” and get potassium iodide tablets, a thyroid protection against harmful effects of radiation. The American military has also distributed potassium iodide to troops working in the Japanese triple disaster of 9.0 earthquake, strong aftershocks, massive tsunami and at least three nuclear power plant reactors where overheating and release of radioactive steam and gases might persist uncontrollably for some time to come. Arnie Gundersen, nuclear engineer and safety expert, says if the Fukushima radiation levels continue to climb, radioactive iodine could reach U. S. West Coast cows and milk supplies by the end of March. Radioactive iodine-contaminated milk was a big problem after the Three Mile Island nuclear melt down on March 28, 1979.
Now 180 Japanese workers have volunteered to return after yesterday's evacuation in the face of very high radiation spikes to the challenge of spraying sea water by firetruck hoses in a desperate effort to cool the radioactive cores and spent fuel pools. Radiation spiked up to 1,000 millisieverts - enough to cause radiation sickness - and then lowered to 600 - 800 millisieverts. But more fires have broken out and radiation continues to spike to dangerously high levels.
“I think the Unit 4 firefighters were withdrawn because the fuel pools
are drying out. That means high levels of Cesium-137 at the site and
the uranium products will turn into radioactive gasses that can touch skin
and be breathed in. This could be as bad as, or worse than, Chernobyl.”
- Arnie Gundersen, Nuclear Engineer and Safety Expert, Fairewinds Assoc.
Kyodo News Agency March 16, 2011: “The U.S. military will operate a Global Hawk unmanned high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft over a stricken nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture, possibly on Thursday, to take a closer look at its troubled reactors, a Japanese government source said Wednesday. Photographs taken by the plane equipped with infrared sensors could provide a useful clue to what is occurring inside the reactor buildings, around which high-level radiation has been detected. The planned mission comes as the Japanese government appears unable to contain the crisis days after the coastal nuclear plant was struck by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami.
I think we are witnessing financial meltdown 2.
Radiation will dissipate like Chernobyl for us, but the entire small country of Japan is fucked unless these amazing guys can stop the overheating.
Fuck you General Electric and your shitastic cheap,mcreactor.
Meanwhile, over levered in YEN means you are doomed.
Fuck you Chris! I'm off the wagon now!
Well, there is one thing that is glaring...In Stage 1 is says, "Worse, a dangerous plume of radioactivity is carried south by winds. Tokyo partially empties and shuts down for all practical purposes."
No. The prevailing winds in Japan always blow from the South or West. All weather systems come form
the direction of the Philippines or China. The prevailing winds do not blow from the north or the east...
Here is all about HAARP, Someone in in here said it's bullshit, I will prove to you beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is used as a financial tool too. There was an attempt to tie it into financial Markets through the CFTC. If you don't read it, go back to sleep, if you want to know the truth, click here. I decided to post this because it's high time everyone knows the truth.
God Bless.
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@lrfederalregister/documents/frcomment/08-004c002.pdf
-1 (H.A.A.R.P.)
"Conspiracy theories are the tools of the weak-minded." - Vic LaRoca
I was able to watch several CCTV videos that were made as the Tidal Wave was entering various cities in Japan.
In several it showed complete panic as drivers of motorcycles, trucks, cars, buses and walkers, seeking rides, collided with each other, people getting run-over, dieing in crashes of all types. It looked like the real thing, a run-for-your-life, fight or flight response.
All your calculations, stop lights, road signs, right-of-way went out the windows.
None of the "old-rules" or "conventions" could be seen. Look at the videos.
Sheer, UN-adulterated, panic. And I'm not blaming them for acting that way, I'm sure any group would act the same. IT WAS JUST THE FIRST TIME RECENTLY or EVER that I've seen this type of PANIC.
Try to get your calculator around that.
GOD BLESS THE PEOPLE OF JAPAN
Sincerely
CuzMan
"Look at the videos"
How about a link, or even a search term?
In 1995 Peter Hadfield's book, "Sixty Seconds that Will Change the World" examined the economic effect of a hypothetical huge earthquake that devastated Tokyo. I.e., one much worse than the current one. But his analysis may still have insights about this one. Here's a synopsis of the book, from Amazon, where cheap used paperback copies are available:
"In the 1990s Tokyo will start to experience earthquakes culminating in a catastrophe on the scale of the 1923 tremor that killed 140,000 people. This time however the effects of such an earthquake in Tokyo will be world-wide. The collapse of Japan's industrial production will lead to a major world recession together with a dramatic fall in currency values and world GNPs. Peter Hadfield, a Tokyo-based journalist and former geologist, has talked in detail to Japan's leading geologists, engineers and economists. He predicts what will happen during and after the earthquake, and at its effect on the world economy. He also looks at the psychology that leads millions of Japanese to ignore the danger signals - even now, a vast new city is being constructed in Tokyo Bay - and at the corruption that spurs such developments on."
Here's the link:
http://www.amazon.com/Sixty-Seconds-That-Change-World/dp/0804830657/ref=...
"Just make sure to have plenty of 90% silver bags to protect yourself from incoming."
That line never gets old.
THIS is his highest level of alert?! What's he gonna call it when the Real SHTF in 5 or so years? Ah, well – I suppose the dragon in front of you at the moment always appears the biggest.
Food...check
Shelter...check
Land...check
Medicine...check
Other misc....check
I'll consider the fiat and metals a bonus.
Is this the time?
I expect we'll know soon enough.
Never been so aware of how eveything is connected.
A rather scary proposition. I'm liquid, and prepared to watch the show.
I expect many of you are to.
I'm concerned for the other 99%.
Thanks to my fellow ZH'ers for adding this viewing in color.
Oh...FUBM. Thanks to you I'm gonna be rich bitch!!
I believe Charlie Sheen said it best: Winning!!
+1
Wow, this could be worse than Y2K!