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Out Come The Big Gunz: Interactive Brokers Advises Traders Of Yet Unknown, But Certainly Scary, Silver Margin Increase
If you don't know what to hike your silver margin to, just tell your clients cryptically you will hike it to some number (very high if possible) and leave it at that. Best to just leave them guessing.
To NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:
Wed May 4 10:50:37 2011 EST
Margin Increase: Silver Derivatives
In light of the recent unprecedented volatility in silver markets, the exchanges that offer trading in silver derivative contracts are increasing the margin requirements on these products. In an effort to adequately address the inherent risk resulting from this volatility, we are increasing margin requirements on silver derivative contracts to a level exceeding that which the exchanges are implementing.
You will be notified as more information becomes available.Please monitor and manage your risk accordingly.
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When your investments are imaginary and just random troll lies on the interwebs, what do you hedge? the ability to claim you called something ROFLMAO :D
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by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35
Forgiven, the peak is in for this run. We will see $50 again but not likely for another year. You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
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by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20
#1219786
Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.
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No, prices are not diverging. You live in a fantasy world.
Just like if you bought $50,000 of physical silver on Friday you are not a happy camper.
You keep saying that, but premiums keep rising.
Who is living in a fantasy world? Christ, look at Eagle prices. That is where it is more obvious.
Doesn't matter how the avalanche got started. What matters is right or wrong, do you have the ability to get out of the way when it's barreling for you?
The levered longs are getting shot in the face like Osama. Same shit going on as housing bubble.
Few people have the intestinal fortitude to trade silver. The newbies on this site who leave 'BTFD!' comments are being tested. Most will go down in flames. As they should for paying $40+ for silver.
$31 by Friday.
Oops letter for Blythe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7KuQpnfuuI
Like Osama? Jeez don't tell me you subscribe to that pimp-my-popularity-rating bullshit.
I also heard he's been dead from kindney failure for nine years. Doesn't matter.
What matters is how psychology changes during a waterfall decline. Sure it's easy to hang in a position when it's going up. But when it's going down so fast that it hurts a great deal to look at the daily statement, well that's when rationale gets thrown out the window. Couple that with margin calls for all the people caught flat footed and you can say goodnight 'silver bug'.
Just bought a couple hundred more ounces.
I am backing up the truck on this selloff. Might be the last one we get before the COMEX blows up. If the paper-pushing criminals push it down to the low to mid $30's, I'm all in.
All cash. All physical.
FU JPM and your co-conspirators at the CME/COMEX/NYMEX/CFTC.
Har. Unless you were advising us back in November not to purchase silver, then you have no cred. And if you advised us back in November not to purchase silver, then you are an idiot.
So which one are you? Discredited or an idiot?
I'm a close personal friend of John Galt. That's my cred.
Quit looking for investment advice on a message board--idiot.
Yeah, and Harvey the Rabbit.
You are insane and have ZERO credibility. Congratulations. Your mother must be so proud.
OT: John Galt was a pussy.
And you just shit your pants after you pulled up today's silver chart.
then why are you giving it, moron?
Thunder Dome
on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:49
#1238521
Quit looking for investment advice on a message board--idiot.
Please don't construe my thoughts for investment advice.
It's psy-ops. Talking your book. Nothing more.
$31 by friday? I really, really hope so, stepping off at $40 on the way up has left me with some $tinkers and they're burning in my pocket...but wait 'til friday you say? Ohhh alright.
That's what the silver bugs said about $40 silver last friday.
Now you're the silver expert around here? Only you have the "intestinal fortitude" to trade silver?
I needed a good laugh, thanks TDome.
$39.50 and going lower.
excellent forcast, its all too easy to say lower vs calling a number amiright...
I made pretty exact calls and still got a ton of shit for it.
Freakin rookies.
I never gave you shit cause I thought shorting at around the Hunt brothers high was a good move. I expected resistance and reversal around 48 and thats what pretty much happened. Didn't think it would drop below 40, thought it would show strong resistance at 42. If I recall you called for a drop to 30-34 range, heck you might even be right in the long run, I think we will know for certain after this friday where its going to end up. But having said that I think we already touched the bottom on this pull back.
If I were you I wouldn't wait for anything under $38. We both have our positions though and calling it to $34 is a ballsy one so I will give probs to you if it turns out that way. My guess is you pulled that number from the stronger channel silver has traded for a while.
We shall see.
Apologies if I attributed a negative comment to you that you did not make.
@dangertime
-monday silver hits 50, you call top and its over, it hits 49.50.
-friday you give in to the humiliation, call 50 this week, maybe 60, silver dips again
-now you try to pretend you didnt say what you said, but sorry, wrong 100% of the time. make another call.
Lastly, all you do is "post" as you put it(pun intended), because as proven ad infinitum, you dont actually hold any investments.
When your investments are imaginary and just random troll lies on the interwebs, what do you hedge? the ability to claim you called something ROFLMAO :D
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by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35
Forgiven, the peak is in for this run. We will see $50 again but not likely for another year. You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
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by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20
#1219786
Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.
------------------------------------
$39. Go open your statement.
You'd have more credibility, if you'd called the rise. You're just a blind squirrel with an acorn. You'll miss the turn and then it's bye, bye for you.
I don't care what people think. None of my business.
You spend an awful lot of time talking to people you have never met to not care what they think.
Lot of short runs in long run. Be careful.
In the long run, it is you PM bashers and naysayers who are going to have the runs in your shorts.
Hey ThunderDome, I'll buy all the silver you want to sell this weekend at $33 an ounce. You can then replenish your supply at $31 per and make a killing off of a total buffoon like me. I have US FRNs for you. You tell me where we meet, so long as it can be at least 1000 ounces that you're bringing. My guess is that there are a bunch more total morons like me who will take you up on that.
You got the balls to take it? You even believe what you write?
I have no idea where silver spot ends up. My guess is between 35 and 45. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is and take the risk that I might be wrong.
I own no silver.
Not too worried as that's just a back the truck up moment. What part of fundamentals and the fact that this is REAL MONEY (not fiat) do you bears miss?
Once ALL of these are solved beyond playing accounting games, then I'll consider parking my relatively little wealth into paper again.
In the meantime, the too big to fails will commence asset stripping from leveraged fools.
You missed Obamacare sucking the life out of each and every small business in Amerika.
Uh..
Most of those things on the list have been problems for much longer than silver's rise.
No they haven't. Social Security didn't start to be a problem till receipts were matching payouts and starting to turn negative like they are now.
Trillion dollar deficits didn't begin till 2008
States didn't start showing fiscal problems until after the crash of 2008 (except for states like California)
Silver started its bull market back in 2001 when it was 4-5 dollars an ounce.
Do I really need to go on?
The margined long players will be decapatitated before this is over.
Silver trades on ice--no friction to slow down moves once they get going.
Goodnight.
To be followed by the margined shorts, right? Maybe the margined shorts have access to interest free loans from the FED and exemptions on position limits.
Why would anyone go to a coin shop to purchase physical with the premiums when you could purchase a futures contract with 100% down and take delivery. What costs are associated with taking physical delivery from the COMEX? Any one know the answer to this question?
The shorts have unlimited paper. Do you really think a swarm of piranha on ZH can take down the global banking system?
Seems we agree the fascist shorts in PMs have unlimited paper while fascist longs in equities have unlimited paper.
You mean the United States banking system or do you equate the United States with the entire world? A "soverign fund" could undermine the banking system in this country. Call it ecomomic warfare.
No central bank or sovereign fund is going to buy silver (at least in the light of day).
Thus the reference to "economic war". You think all these sovereign countries are going to sit around and let the United States via the FED steal their resources by offering worthless dollars as a medium of exchange?
Just like our FED using opaque programs to monetize the Treasury's debt?
No. World is heading towards an East (creditor) vs West (debtor) showdown. But as of today we are all officially 'friends' (except for terrorists, of course).
That showdown is going to unleash unimaginable chaos for every sovereign nation.
It should be 100% if your not a bonafide hedger or end producer. Raise it baby! Flush em out!
At 100% the business becomes Cash & Carry
The more weak longs are shaken out by the falling price, the easier it becomes for any Bank of Podunk or oligarch in the third world that isn't beholden to the Bernank to collapse the ponzi.
Cost to purchase "entire" Comex registered Silver Inventory
33M @ $50 1.650 billion
33M @ $45 1.485 billion
33M @ $40 1.320 billion
33M @ $35 1.155 billion
33M @ $30 990 million
33M @ $25 825 million
33M @ $20 660 million
So when does Schiff or Paulson step in, say "I'll take it" and watch the chaos that ensues? My guess is somewhere around 30 or 35. Then watch Obama pull an FDR on the whole situation.
I don't think Schiff can "take it" but a few funds wanting physical en masse could.
The Chinese can and will do it.
I'm glad to catch up with the train. It left to fast. Waiting to start buying. These low numbers are only going to accelerate the physical silver shortage.
Do they realize how big a "tell" they're showing by these constant margin increases?
I mean, for fuck's sake, if I was on the fence about the comex being bare of physical silver BEFORE...
on Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:15
#1238275
Do they realize how big a "tell" they're showing by these constant margin increases?
bingo!
OT
Flash crash on Apple. I suspect now the terminators have gone too far. LOD = $321.87
Was just gonna post that. CNBC said it was a single lot of 100 shares. Lol. The intraday on AAPL looks pretty hilarious and rigged imo.
100 shares sold can flash-crash crAAPL 7% in seconds? LULZ, what a crappy broken market.
Dang, and no sooner than MomoChaser had just posted crowing about his AAPL stock pinned at all time highs. He probably bought that top.
The debate is framed: Is silver currency or isn't it? If it isn't currency (in the minds of the buyers), then TPTB will be able to beat down the price and regain control. But if people are deciding that silver is a stronger currency than linen, TPTB can play all the games they want. They will not put Humpty Dumpty back together, because currency is about faith, and they are losing people's faith at an impressive clip.
aaple flash crash ?? 7% down in seconds
http://www.forbes.com/2008/09/23/bailout-paulson-congress-biz-beltway-cx...
as if this tactic was anything new.
question i have yet to see answered for anyone with an idea of how this wouldplay out..,.
if paper and physical price separate by a wider and wider margin.
how does the lower paper price effect mining shares if at all?
Slightly off-topic, but since someone mentioned Apple earlier, does anyone know what's up with the Apple Flash trade around 10:53 EDT? My Schwab screen shows a drop to $321...
Doesn't really matter to me. I was in last August at ~$18
Keeping it for my kids & grandkids....
+
Talk about a disconnect between the paper game vs. the physical game. Silver bears - try to buy a ten oz bar on ebay for less than $480. Not a chance. most are selling above $500 & spot is currently at $40/oz- HA
That is a good point however it has gone lower this dip which it hadn't in the recent past. I use ebay as a good indicator for physical price as it had only gone up during some recent pullbacks but savvy buyers have let the price fall this time around. I don't know how long it will last but this time was a real pullback. As you state though the price of physical is still at a premium well over spot. I bought some yesterday...will get more soon.
This is quite the raid. You have to figure, all these brokers trade in a sandbox against their clients. They were going to explode on silver shorting losses.
I went to my coin guy yesterday & could afford just 3 more eagles (thank god) . My coin guy told me that his premiums had gone up, he was running low on his buillion & had to wait longer for his shipments. Just last summer I was paying $3.50 premium on silver eagles. Yesterday I had to pay $6 premium per coin ! Anyone else ? Can anyone else chime in & tell me what they are paying (i do not order on line, i just go to the local coin guy & can only buy a few at a time) .
You spent $6 over spot on 3 Silver Eagles because that's all you could afford? God Damn you're Fuckin Stupid.
Hey dip shit not everyone has access to the wealth of knowledge afforded to you by jesus himself so why don't you cool it a little and suggest a place where she might be able to get a better deal?
I don't think you know what the word "stupid" means. Epic fail.
Please, tell us why that makes her dumb? As opposed to 99% of the population NOT buying it.
enlighten us. Or shut your fucking mouth.
Shake it off, lynnbee.
Totally unnecessary.
tulving.com possibly, though would be for larger orders, find a reputable Ebay guy possibly for smaller stuff. Can buy 90% bags or individual coins - usually at spot with little or no markup. Be creative, but don't waste time/money on trading the paper.
I guess I gave you online stuff - else look around for a dealer or someone like mr bigs here that is looking to 'unload' all their silver - may get a deal since they aren't 'stoopid' enough to hold physical. :-)
+1
stoopid is as stoopid does.
and stoopid buys physical.
I usually pay anywhere from 50¢ to $3 over spot at current prices. But, I do most of my buying at auction, and I have cleared quite a few times right on spot.
I do all of my purchases online and always take delivery every month or two.
Just called my local coin dealer. They want $7 over spot today. The last time I bought silver a few months ago I was only paying $2.50 over spot.
These premiums seem exorbitantly high. Makes you wonder if we are getting fleeced or if this really reflects the tight supply of coins...?
Bullion direct is still about $2-$3 over spot, about $1 for rounds. That's why I do the auctions, I almost always end up below $2. Right now I have a bid at $40 an ounce that ends in 3 days. Everybody else has already jumped ship, so silver better stay between $38-$40 by saturday.
just called my local coin shop (suburban Chicago) , all he has is 2011 ase's and wants 4.50 over spot (spot = 39.40)
(i do not order on line, i just go to the local coin guy & can only buy a few at a time) .
LB sounds like you're stuck paying whatever the premium is
just keep dollar cost averaging it, regular incremental purchases over times
many online sellers were asking around a $6 buck premium; silver AE's are in short supply is why
Lynnybee, you might want to buy 'junk silver' because the premium is high for the SAE's. Also if you buy (if you can find it) the Englehard ingots, they're usually only $1 over spot. Ignore that idiot, not everyone here is swimming in FRN's.
lynnybee don't feel bad about paying 6 dollars over spot. APMEX is buying back eagles at $3 over spot, so there is a tight market for the physical. Currently I am paying $100 for pysical silver, because I have been buying PCGS graded 70 First Strike 2010 Proof Silver Eagles. As the price of the metal plunges I like to pick up semi numismatic coins until we hit bottom so I can bulk up on my ounces. So while the prices fall might be a good idea to learn about the highly collectible coins out there that are good buys like perfect condition first strike low mintage runs of proof coins that cost today what two silver eagles cost last week.
So now Interactive Brokers is part of the Comex/Geithner/Bernanke/JP Morgan conspiracy to screw the Silver Bugs out of their money? LMFAO!!!! Silver Bugs are the Dumbest of the Dumb.
Do I even need to point out the irony that people who keep using AOL circa-1990 abbreviations like "LMFAO!!" register quite high on the mental deficiency scale as well?
LOL! ;>
ROFLOL!!
OK I'll bite, what's YOUR abbreviation for LAUGHING MY FUCKING ASS OFF?
by Korrathon Wed, 05/04/2011 - 11:26
#1238392
Do I even need to point out the irony that people who keep using AOL circa-1990 abbreviations like "LMFAO!!" register quite high on the mental deficiency scale as well?
For this thread? I'd post a chart of ZSL; a picture's worth a thousand words...or at this rate half a ton of silver.
OK you got me there
Uhhh, no, they are reporting rumors of a FOURTH Margin hike in less than two weeks.
This is utterly unprecedented, and clearly manipulative, especially since they seem to be letting their pals know beforehand, as there is a medium to large sized dip a few hours before each one is announced to the public.
But hey, you're right. There is no way there could possibly be any corruption on Wall Street. Those guys are a bunch of saints, and would NEVER violate ANY laws, regulations, or exchange rules to make money.
As part of my regular buying, I put an order in for 200 ASEs about 4 weeks ago. Usually 10-12 business days for delivery, but this got really "delayed". Lo and behold, got a call this morning with a tracking number...
All this manipulation is death-bed desperation.
We store. We wait. We win.
Bought on options expiration. APMEX order delay no tracking number yet. Three phone calls later, "we wanted to double check your address". Last time I use them.
If you are buying silver paper, just for trading purposes, then this would be quite scary. If you are accumulating physical PM, then this is actually a godsend, no?
Yes!
No!
Is this a trick question?
Mmmm, well maybe. I trade paper silver and I like what's happening, but I sold it all last time it was at $40, so I'm in the market to buy some back (and I'm not going all in at this level, could be more thrashing ahead still).
And my local coin shop never makes margin calls.
Exactly, I covered my GLD position and am buying more physical when the dust settles.
I strongly advise everyone to wait for confirmation and don't get too eager to buy. This has all the trappings of an epic price manipulation and could go MUCH lower.
I will be surprised if the don't raise margins across the board for many commodities. I am wondering if this is the way our Dear Leader is trying to influence inflation and prices. If so, it iwill ultimately cause prices to rise instead! As the liquidity pool shrinks, it only empowers the blue whale investors to manipulate prices even more!
"I will be surprised if the don't raise margins across the board for many commodities."
I'll believe when I see it. This is long overdue for oil and food.
i get the feeling that the silver shakeout is related to a big dollar devaluation. the situation for the usa economy is as desperate as ever, despite pockets of relative strength in some companies.
sure i'm disappointed that the one asset i own has taken a good smacking. however, i think most observers would concur that bernanke is gonna print with the result being further dollar depreciation.
Anybody following General Jim's "Formula" is getting decimated.
The only way $1,650 is "In the Bag" is if the economy improves and the Dow goes to 15,000
OMG youre such an idiot you should be banned, how the hell do you have chart posting privs? Anyway, your crAAPL just shit the bed down 7%, Im sure we wont be seeing that chart posted.
and SLW is down .5%
+10
Apple Sauce chart, let's see it!
are you really so stupid as to believe that the DOW going up is somehow a reflection of an improving economy? I mean really man aren't you embarrassed to make such idiotic statements when it is beyond obvious (your specialty) that the rise in the market is almost exclusively attributable to the plummeting dollar...or are you just in the mood to be an asshole (again)?
child
.2 percent drop. That's pretty damn brutal but I think general jim can take it. He's tough. I bet he could even handle a full percent drop.
Robo won't tell you that gold was at an all time closing high in London yesterday @ $1540.25.
He's a liar and a punk.
Oops, I was wrong. Gold closed at an all time high today @ $1541.
Robo, you have ZERO credibility on gold. Shut your pie hole already.
#1- I happen to like some of robot traders stuff, he nails it sometimes
#2- I happen to think that RT is a TDurden sockpuppet used to keep the boards edgy
just my opinion of course
Yeah, that economy is kickin' ass so better sell, sell, sell all PM's before it's too late!!!!
Trading silver is nuts. Most illiquid market in the world. You can't win.
In my book paper silver is for tradin', physical is for holdin'
Agreed, but if you are implying that it is easy to fix because it is illiquid, I think the market has made it clear that ALL markets are fixed, because the SYSTEM is fixed. There is no safety in liquid markets.
Dollar still treading 73. Everything else is just smoke.
That is true. And with the drop of the dollar $50 Ag seems like a bargain still...so $39 is a screaming bargain. Ben Bernanke is the Walmart of FRN...prices keep dropping.
Hahaha, what a joke
Truly amazing the lengths TPTB have gone to shake down silver. You would think it was the end of the world the lengths they are going to.
JPM must be in a massive amount of trouble for all the available market forces to come to their aid in pushing down silver and gold. Hmmm maybe JPM is really about to be blow out of the water because of silver.
If that ever happens the guys at the CFTC better start making up their stories now, of why they allowed the corruption to begin and then supported it. Maybe a few years in an anus pounding institution might do wonders for some of the executive at the CFTC.
Everyone should read my post from February and open your damn eyes as to what is going on here:
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:35 | tmosley (Total Score:1)
The paper price is fake. The sooner it breaks down toward zero (among infinite volatility), the sooner the current system ends due to metal default, and "gold bugs" take over the financial system as physical premiums head toward infinite.
http://argo.zerohedge.org/article/morning-gold-fixing-bernanke-“catast...
Silver margin hikes welcomed !!
"Hey bartender....a round of paper silver for everyone"
Once silver hasturned its back on hopes it will destroy paper TODAY, eagerly, I made a chart prediction of coming gold bubble (into which fiat fighters will switch) and its relatively modest (25%) correction before returning to 2000 USD reached in peak:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=32176#p32176
Feel free to object based on rational or irrational grounds. There is still time both to join the move up, and to jump the ship at the peak ( October 2010), and jump in back again.
Someone took delivery of 1 Ton silver in Nanjing
http://gold.hexun.com/2011-03-03/127678670.html
The man paid by his coporate card in Mid february at a retailer. Took delivery in March. The delivery was in 1 kg bars. The total was 1000 bars. He paid 7.21 million Yuan. Currently worth more than 7.89 million yuan.
Customers are rountinely advised to pay first and wait for delivery in the next 3 to 5 business days. Bars are on ration in many places. You cannot buy 1000 bars a time.
Ration helps business. Retailers see sales volume doubles on monthly basis.
But Math Man told me the market was FLOODED!
lol, he can't even point to a single bar for sale outside of some paper sham where I would have to use a damned lawyer to get delivery.
You capitalists be a hoot in your folly to become richer; zsl be the ticket for thee this earth week. For us socialist poppers and commons; we be waiting for rotten war nickels and other junk to fall to the ground from the vine of big hat no cattle wealth. Remember; it be all figur'd in.
Seems like Armstrong called this scenario right on the money. Oh thank you PTB for giving me the chance to go back in time and buy more at a cheaper price.
Silver, Bitchez!!!
LOL.....
I'm buying this dip Robo, wtf are you doing other than predicting the past.
You mean Captain Hindsight?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rmUZQrvF5o
I love the smell of silver dips in the major delievery month of May. I see them pulling out all the stops to drive down the price. While prices fall I buy numismatic. When they go back up I bulk up on bullion. I am always buying, never selling till we take out $150 the inflation adjusted high in todays devalued fiat dollars.
on another string, methman commented that there was a river of silver flowing, now. physical. i agree. the high prices brought sterling out of the cupboards and into the smelters. at least, that is what i personally witnessed, locally.
as silver was sold into distribution, the price went up. some shortages in some silver products developed; backwardiZation; reports of shortages @ the crimex traders and bullion banks.
now, weak hand and traders are liquidating. the banksters are buying, just like every other day. and i would think, at this point, they are happy as hell to get the physical, if they want it. plus, the options action is to die for!
Slewie;
Your analyses are top=notch. When do we get your predictions, so I can put my finger on pirate booty? I was thinking about selling off some physical until this downturn. Now I'm thinking about starting a new business based upon PM recycling.
Skip silver. Go for gold. You can carry a sizeable amount of value in gold. It takes a pickup truck to move any value of silver.
Either one would suffice at this point...with the ratio stuck halfway between where it was...and where it will most likely be moving to in the near future.
as i survey the situation i see oil barely down. the dxy is at 73 or so, hanging by a thread. gold is but about 4% to 5% off all time highs hit this week. food stamp usage is rising. 99ers are dropping off the rolls. u6 is 17%. labor participation is at 30 year lows. the real budget deficit is $5 trillion using gaap and gse's.
and ben would have us believe he'll stop the qe?
All signs of a healthy, robust economy!
indeed. ben and timmy got her under control.
@Dangertime(below), once again for the 100th time. Submit and link ANY picture of a screen or piece of paper showing ANY of your claimed investments. Just spray paint or blur the personal info. It would take less time and effort than signing up on zerohedge and waiting for them to confirm. YOU WONT, and the reason is YOU CANT. Your are a 20 something year old, college kid, living with roomates or your mom's basement. Pretending you have investments that you dont, making calls, all 100% wrong. No one believes you or cares. The fact that the silver correction everyone knew would come is here, and has brought back the other trolls, to give you some semblance of support, doesnt change who or what you are, or what you called, and how it was wrong.
Picture or it doesnt exist BITCH (no ez).
When your investments are imaginary and just random troll lies on the interwebs, what do you hedge? the ability to claim you called something ROFLMAO :D
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by Dangertime
on Mon, 04/25/2011 - 10:35
Forgiven, the peak is in for this run. We will see $50 again but not likely for another year. You still have time to sell and restock with even more this summer.
------------------------------------
by Dangertime
on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:20
#1219786
Silver will break $50 next week and march possibly even to $60.
------------------------------------
LOOK OUT BELOW, TRUTH HAMMER INCOMING
VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
150% return, time to close out the puts.
Special thanks to mosley and eisley for rallying the bagholders. You both have a special place in my heart.
I truly hope you manage to rally us back to ~43 over the next few days where I will reload.
Good job not trying to hold it all the way down.
Why don't you play leverage instead of being a moron with a highly levered directional play? You'd have made 75% more than you did if you had held puts AND calls since you got here.
But then, you are a greenhorn who doesn't actually know what he is doing. I remember those days. A few trades when my way, and I thought I couldn't be beaten. Then--tragedy. Set back a full year on my positions.
But then, your only goal here is to separate people from their physical silver, so who cares about being prudent or thoughtful in any way? SELLSELLSELLSELLSELLSELL!
I am surprised an expert such as yourself could not see this collapse coming......
Anyways, Bulls and Bears make money but hogs get slaughtered.
As far as the calls, it's much harder to pick when a parabola is about to start, so I usually withold on the calls unless I'm sure the price is about to breakout.
I wasn't so sure about gold and silver this season given that everything is so damn overbought.
150% isn't bad for a greenhorn. Not sure what makes you think I want to separate people from their physical, but whatever. I got what I wanted. Good luck with those $49 bags. You should break even on them sometime over the next twelve months.
Uhhh, I did.
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 08:35 | tmosley (Total Score:1)
The paper price is fake. The sooner it breaks down toward zero (among infinite volatility), the sooner the current system ends due to metal default, and "gold bugs" take over the financial system as physical premiums head toward infinite.
Are you saying the paper price is falling to $0?
Yup. COMEX paper will be worthless before this is all over. It's called a default, and it could happen at practically any time.
By the time it does, you won't be able to find physical ANYWHERE, save at some enormous premium. Hell, they might not even accept dollars for it at that point.
Premiums are rising on APMEX as I refresh the pages after a few hours.
Selling your physical is going to look like a boneheaded move in a few months, unless you take your paper profits and reinvest them in physical before that happens.
And YES there have been false alarms before, with 2008 being the most obvious one, but even at the height of the dip buying back then, they never ran out of Eagles like they have now.
I still have my gold coins in case of a catastrophic event.
In a few months? Is that when you predict the comex will default? Or is that a prediction of silver going over $50?
Either they let the price rise to meet supply and demand or they create a supply shortage due to price fixing. What happens, who the fuck knows, but it is obvious which direction we are headed in when they have all these margin hikes in such a short period of time. If their goal is to get rid of speculation they will succeed and destroy the Comex with it. After all the whole point of holding on to paper promises of PM's is to do it on leverage other wise you would just trade the physical metal as the risk of holding the paper becomes too great a risk if it costs the same as the metal.
Good idea to get out of those puts, as you told us earlier "don't be greedy!"
I'd give it a 40-50% chance that it will default in the next delivery month. Add 20% to that chance for each delivery month that passes.
But then, I have always been early on such things. Which is why I just hold physical.
I was two weeks early on the puts, so I know what you are saying. Better early than late though.
Exactly Danger, that is why Tmosely, akak and I have our positions. Best not to be the bag holder in the long run but in the short run on the leg down, when you hold phys it doesn't phase you anyway.
I think we are all good at timing, relatively speaking within a couple weeks, but honestly you don't know when its all just going to break and by the looks of the DXY that is coming a lot sooner than later.
I think there is some old saying about a bird and a bush that probably pretty much sums up the attitudes of many here.