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Jim Grant Presents A Prospectus For The United States, Discusses The Death Penalty For US Coinage Debasers
Jim Grant joins Morgan Stanley (and contrary to Rosenberg's expectations) in anticipating US rates to rise promptly, primarily due to the world's negative "reappraisal of the US Treasury." This is not so much a debate on inflation or deflation, as it is a call on the (un)trustworthiness of the US as a lender. To that end, Grant has put together a Treasury prospectus (which we will post as soon as we procure it) which as Jim puts it "is a compendium of the salient facts about the Treasury as if it were an issuer that did not have a printing press... All you need to know about the credit risk of the US." The first risk factor, via the GAO, "improper payments that should not have been paid by the Treasury totalled $98.7 billion, equivalent to 5% of Treasury outlays." Keep in mind the UST raised $333 billion in net debt in March, as we pointed out yesterday. Grant also discusses the Coinage Act of 1792, whose section 19 stipulates "that the penalty for anyone who would debase the coinage of the US, is death." By that logic, a firing squad may soon need to be sequestered to Washington. Grant's concludes that there is a "great suspension of disbelief in out US monetary system on behalf of the world over. One wonders when people will say no."
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yeah, I've been wondering for quite some time when people will say no and enough is enough already!
good stuff! Thanks ZH and all that contribute to exposing the lies!
Death as a penalty is too emancipating. It's quick and puts one out of mortal pain.
I prefer to throw Geithner and Bernanke in prison and provide the best healthcare possible to these two c***suckers so that they live to be 150. Living, not dying, is painful, especially in old age.
Stunning.
Sure "they" will. Any day now. Waiting...
The collective illusion is showing some cracks. Ironically, when the illusion itself becomes unstable, those enthralled by the illusion (and by extension those who will be harmed the most by the sudden introduction of reality) will fight with all their might to remain within the illusion.
Once you've signed a pact with the devil, you become foot soldiers for the devil's devices. Looks like both sides will be stocking up on cases of MREs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRE
Cog, could this cause a bit of a tremble in the earths core? I just wonder why the story hasn't received more attention? I find the release of this report quite puzzling. If I didn't know any better, I'd say old Ben has an alternative motive here. Maybe this is Ben's thank you letter to congress for giving him that tongue lashing. No doubt he sent a copy of this report to his old pal from Kentucky.
Hey CD,
I was looking forward to the rest of your comments how we collectively deceive ourselves. I know how the human mind "filters" input to reinforce what we already believe to be true, i.e. we make our own reality. I was anticipating your slant on the topic. Are you planning to continue?
"I was looking forward to the rest of your comments how we collectively deceive ourselves."
I spent a great deal of time today commenting on this ZH thread about this subject. Some might say too much. Many people responded with outstanding commentary as well. In fact, I rate this thread in the all time top 10 of ZH threads. Take a look.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/march-non-farm-payrolls-162l-below-consensus-unemployment-rate-97-hourly-earnings-down-01
Forget the MRE's. Look at what Costco is offering. Do they know something we don't?
http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11487214&Ne=4000000&eCat=BC|3605|75277&N=4040913&Mo=24&No=0&Nr=P_CatalogName:BC&cat=75277&Ns=P_Price|1||P_SignDesc1&lang=en-US&Sp=C
I'll take 4 please.
Actually I see this sale as a sign of lessening demand. Maybe people really are beginning to believe the worst is behind us and have stopped (or slowed) putting in supplies for the apocalypse.
What is the state of guns sales in the USA?
"What is the state of guns sales in the USA?"
Prices of the weapon are 30% - 50% higher for first grade vs 2007.
Ammunition components are next to impossible to find for reloaders and if you do find them the prices are 1/3 rd higher.
Ready made ammo is available but the prices are higher and the number of rounds per box is smaller.
I agree that the price asked for most guns are at a premium to 2007, but anecdotally I have seen a marked decline in recent demand. All of the local gun sales are down (arkansas). I've been to a few gun shows, sales down there too. There have been quite a few ZH posters confirm my observations in regard to the gunshows in their areas in recent posts.
What you're seeing is the demand vacuum following cash for clunkers. Essentially, when obama was elected mom and pop (and many other) gun stores sold as many guns in a 2 month span as they did in the previous 2-5 years. It certainly made me notice, begin the process of obtaining an FFL, only to punt on second down. Just look at gunbroker... the actual sales volume has been demolished. The people selling guns are coming from the bottom up... the buy it nowers are just relisting... and relisting... and relisting.
Essentially, we're about to hit a flood of inventory... demand has slacked and soon manufacturers will catch up with orders. To make matters worse, all those people who bought black rifles thinking they were going to hit a homerun when obama outlawed them are now having buyers remorse. Also, I think a lot of people tried to get into the business during the boom, ate a lot of inventory (reloading, etc.), and now realize it was a fool's errand.
AK prices and 7.62 ammo are cheap as hell... we're now back well before the peak... milled rifles still carry a premium, but they can't hardly give the bottom end away. (about to buy a saiga 12 guage for shits and giggles... nothing says get the fuck out of my house like a 20 round drum).
I'll probably get into the business, but I'll remain nimble... and my inventory holding period will not be more than a week... all these dealers that restocked inventory during the peak are going to get hosed... many are like houses bought at the peak... holding until can't hold any longer.
I'm actually planning on starting a guns and gold store. I'm not fucking around. I figure I'll at least meet plenty of interesting folks. Of course, many of them will be batshit crazy... with the targets of obama in a burka, etc. They have no idea that they're actually pretty close to the truth, figuratively, in that the administration perpetuates the lie... but they just see it as osama = bad and obama = bad (and even sounds like osama), so we'll put a bullseye on him and have some fun at the range. Kinda like watching blade runner and never reflecting on deckard's character and the oragami figures... close enough for government work...
I say planning, I'll probably end up sitting on the sidelines as I always do... waiting for the business opportunity that looks too good to pass up... and, of course, never finding one (because practicality and planning are the virtues of masochists and tormented souls). In the meantime maybe I can get into drafting gun trusts for clients desirous of purchasing class III weapons.
But, in summary, no, gun sales are winding down.
I just read an assessment of the market from one of the gun manufacturers. The general line was that, yes sales are off from the peak. However the numbers are still above the "normal" level of the early 2000's. It does make a bit of difference as to what the comparison point is. As MnchoMan noted, the prices of the higher quality arms remains high while the low end product is on sale. That could be the result of the buyers becomming both more educated about the serviceability of the arms and also becomming more serious about considering how it will operate in real service conditions. I would not really propose firearms as an investment for profit, but would expect them to hold the original value pretty well. One thought about the investment aspects would be that 308 rounds or 223 rounds will possibly be in demand. If you are the one with the excess it may be easier to barter than a 1 oz bar of gold that could be suspect in content.
Thank you both for your comments. When I decided to purchase a few items back in 2006 I made sure to buy near or at the top of the line to help maintain value. But I also bought about a dozen cheaper 9 mils, 38's and 45's as well as 4 AR's because I expected things to get worse and the price to go up.
I sold them back to the dealer for 20% higher in late 2008 and he was still able to sell then for a good profit as used because demand had exploded and all I ever did with the weapons was clean them so they were perfect. I wound up making enough to nearly pay for my keepers.
Same thing with .223 ammo, which the dealer suggested I purchase in 2006 along with the AR's. I wound up buying 20,000 rounds and that was where I made a killing, when I sold 10,000 back to the dealer for nearly twice what I paid. What really exploded in price was the good quality .223 ammo. Since all that remains is what I intend to keep, the price doesn't really matter, other than as an indicator.
Instant Mormon in a can. They are required to have a year's worth of food.
This guy is another straight shooter. No BS. Anticipating his prospectus.
Nominate for FEDRES Chairman? Then audit and end it!
Isn't he still bullish on stocks? Does he think rates can go up AND stocks too? I don't see how that could be possible, but a lot of seemingly impossible things have happened in the last year.
Treasury bears must be the most crowded trade in the market right now. Watch the curve flatten with a huge rally in the Long Bond.
They must be anticipating the Maturity Wall coming in a year or so:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-16303.htm
How will this be dealt with?? Increase in rates at the long end to 7% will increase the interest expense up towards 2/3 of yearly tax revenues!!!
Something dramatic is coming......
The US wants to eliminate its standing army and replace it with interest payments.
Thumbs up for Jim, caught that clip of him on Bloomberg Surveillance a few days ago, he's sharp as always.
Jim Grant for Secretary of Treasury. Get rid of Turbo tim and replace him with Grant -- and we would be looking a S&P 300 within about a month
Great.
Because then the climb up from S&P 300 will be based upon sustainable and believable facts, figures and not fantasy. I prefer my fantasy in the bed, not in the boardroom.
Interesting. I would have thought it was illegal for anyone other than the "ratings cartel" to comment on, analyze, or pass judgment US Government balance sheets. </sarcasm>
LOL
I always sort of thought that a "balance" sheet must actually balance. How in the world can anyone think the US Govt is in balance?
Bueller? Beuller? Beuller?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO68zwTXFWk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEXfASbPbDM&feature=related
Seriously, I feel I'm living out the later part of the movie "invasion of the body snatchers" when the world has been conquered save for a few who pretend to be part of the BS'ers. The simplest of math can't be accepted as it would cause a paradigm collapse...debt grew faster than the ability to pay for it, and now is going parabolic (vs. GDP). $2T in annual revenue against $14T in debt and $50 to $100T in unfunded liabilities. Of course we could fix it but no politician can win by forcing the debt resolutions. But don't blame the politicians, they are only a reflection of us and our cognitive dissonance (sorry to the guy w/ that handle) to deal w/ a world in which things bought must be paid for and things to be bought must be saved for. That's hard and would be a real bummer. Don't look at the goverment or politicians or Wall street as the problem...we Americans are the problem and only we Americans could fix this. But Americans generally react and aren't real proactive (any longer?)...so the crisis must present itself, engulf us, so then we can "come together" and work 10x, 50x, 100x? harder to resolve a problem we could have avoided. Sorry folks, we must go "all the way" to uber crisis to engage Americans fear but I fear the "resolution" we will see will not be one we ZH'ers would prefer. Until "then", we wander among our citizens, do our jobs (if we got 'em), enjoy our lives, and simply know the seasons will change sooner than later and we will all adapt (only some will have been expecting, willing the change and others will be suprised, all are likely to be angry).
Couldn't resist
Invasion of the Body Snatchers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-jzblCbsuA
Also (found whilst searching for the Body Snatchers), Invasion of the Giant Squid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcKQt5hHDXg
I did not know Bill Grant moonlighted as Bill Nye The Science guy!
I don't know when the world will say no to the dollar.
I do suspect that the first successful no will be observed and followed by many others, and that such things both a) appear impossible before they happen and b) once they do happen, happen quickly.
c) they also happen when it's 'least expected' d) they are triggered by the event, which seems by itself irrelevant or unimportant (hence 'c').
It's hard to predict the actual moment the event happens, because it's 'systemic' in nature. It can build up for a long time and those who pay attention to the systemic imbalances can see the system 'eventually' breaking up, but they also would naturally fail to predict the exact moment, because the system itself is very complex and cannot be understood in its entirety.
The sandpile experiment. The pile gets higher one grain at a time until a single grain of sand exposes the underlying instability and causes the "avalanche".
Yes, or the 'house of cards' analogy, cards are piled up on top of each other until some minor air movement takes out one card, which in turn triggers the whole process.
When will the world say no?
The USD is rather a good deal for the top quintile of the world.
It opens up the world resources market.
The only countries likely to reject the USD are the countries on the wrong side of the fence. Mostly commodity rich countries whose resources are supporting the top of the basket. They also happen to be among the weakest countries in the world.
Can they reject the USD? No, for multiple reasons, one is that they are unilateraly indebted to the US and others, therefore open to a harsh recall on their debt. Besides, they can also be easily labelled terrorists if they rise against the current order.
Etc
"... currencies they trade are unsecured pieces of paper of no intrinsic value..." That pretty well sums it all up. UST's are derivatives of the USD; an unsecured piece of paper of no intrinsic value except the ability to tax the economy to death & the full faith & credit of the US gov't. Got faith & credit?
Grant's been saying this for 25 (or is it 30?) years. He's a bright, amusing guy -- but as a market timer or guru, he's a disaster.
It is interesting that 25 (or is it 30?) years ago Greenspan started as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Perp walks and show trials by the next administration
Thank you ZH - I always enjoy Mr. Grant's perspective.
Over time, he has always spoken his truth, and usually with humor to ease the needle.
I don't look to him for profitable trades, but for the knowledge he shares.
"Taking Stock" is the only financial show on a MSM outlet that I have set up to record on an ongoing basis on my DVR. It's because there are frequently guests who seriously question the status quo, or are willing to call inept policy as they see it. Guess I should enjoy it while I can, because if I like it, it's probably going the way of the dodo.
who better to give advice on debasing the currency, than Maynard...
"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose." -- John Maynard Keynes, "Economic consequences of the peace" -Unseen Hand, page 57
These are exceedingly beyond, way over the top, beyond any belief, impossible to comprehend interesting times - and that's just the starting line...
The Chinese, being not stupid, have certainly got this all figured out. When our house of cards does collapse, and I think it will, only those who are standing out of the way are going to survive it financially.
Having "lurked" on this web site for a long time, I think most people who contribute here have long since figured it out too, and already I think of many of you as my friends even though I do not really know you.
So, besides the dollar, what is there to preserve ( increase? forget it ! ) one's assets?
Full faith and credit? Right. You believe that?
Jim said he'd bet a house plant on it. I'm betting a lot more than that. Stay safe, all.
+ Unknown friends!
So, besides the dollar, what is there to preserve ( increase? forget it ! ) one's assets?
As long as you understand that your objective is to move wealth from one currency regime to the next, you will find there is a time-proven method for doing that.
Just so we're clear - the US "borrowed" $10.1Billion dollars every day last month to pay our bills. Saturday, Sunday...$10B a day.
Who is "loaning" America $10B dollars a day???
The average for the past 18months has been $5B a day (Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday).
Who will loan America another $5B a day for the rest of the year (assuming the best case of only a $2T deficit)? Next year? The year after? If fed prints 'em all, somebody take a guess at the price of oil, copper, gold, wheat, real estate...anything tangible?
And @ Adam, I can't "figure it out". I have a good job, have little debt, but know it is all an illusion. I feel someone will soon snap their fingers and the illusion of "prosperity", "ownership", liberty?,will all vanish. How do we continue to work hard and plan for the future of those we care about in that environment?
hey hambone, as Grant pointed out we have the printing press. Ben is not shy using it to paper over our debts. The question is when will those buying this worthless paper say enough is enough? I hope the Grant's prospectes on the the US Treasury will fall into the right hands.
Buy a Farm...free and clear.
I am thinking seriously about this, but I am no farmer. Looking into forging some kind of alliance with local farmers.
"Who is "loaning" America $10B dollars a day???"
That one is easy: between $13 trillion to $17 trillion, or $18 trillion was given to the banksters and private equity firms, which then invested it overseas, primarily in China, India and elsewhere. This money (a portion, that is) is then funneled back, via offshore finance centers, to purchase the bulk of those loans -- with the remainder being offshore Fed proxies.
Now, as to your last comment: everyday you are well rested, well fed and alive, consider it to be a bonus. Nothing further need be said at this point.
If it's copyrighted material then don't post it as Grant is protective of his work. That's the way it should be
Hambone, rather than wonder about the price of oil, copper, gold, wheat, real estate -- in dollars -- I try to think about how many gallons of gas I can buy with a bushel of wheat, or how many acres I can buy with a hundred ounces of gold. Try looking through the other end of the telescope instead. It helps find out what's "cheap" and what's not.
The one thing nobody can really lay their hands on is the simplest question of all : Exactly what is a "dollar" anyway? Used to be an ounce of silver. Now, it's whatever Bernanke's printing press wants it to be.
It reminds me of the Star Trek episode where a bunch of "brains in glass vats" were all bargaining with each other, bidding up the number of quatloos they would pay for each other's slaves... I guess that dates me. Sorry.
And the aforementioned Coinage Act FIXED the Gold Silver Ratio at 15:1..........
DO THE MATH>>>>BITCHES!
BTW I thought we weren't supposed to trust a guy wearing a bow tie....or is that just Rogers?
So let me get this right. The treasury "misspent" $98 billion in one year and Obama goes about touting $138 billion in savings from the health care gift over ten years. Do I have that right?
Yep, and if the fiscal forecasts of the past are any indications he is probably off by hundreds of billions. Which means we will be in the hole by at least that much if not more. Wonder whose pocket that 98B wound up in, ah nevermind BB will take care of it.
Obamacare, Medicare, Medicaid all rhyme with Kool-Aid for the nation. Here're the facts, from a speech, Health Care in a Free Society, by Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin:
"[T]he Constitution left the administration of public health—like that of most public goods—decentralized. If there is any doubt that control of health care services should not have been placed in the federal government, we need only look at the history of Medicare and Medicaid—a history in which fraud has proliferated despite all efforts to stop it and failure to control costs has become a national nightmare.
"In 1966 the cost of Medicare to the taxpayers was about $3 billion. The House Ways and Means Committee estimated that it would cost $12 billion (adjusted for inflation) by 1990. The actual cost was nearly nine times that--$107 billion. By 2009 Medicare costs reached $427 billion, with Medicaid boosting that by an additional $225 billion. And this doesn’t take into account the Medicaid expansion (read open borders) in last year’s 'stimulus.'”
Heading the insurance mafia game, of course, is Senator Joe Liberman whose wife, Hadassah, formerly worked as a consultant for the drug company Pfizer. According to the NY Times, Joe’s Connecticut is the hub of the insurance industry, with about 22,000 jobs specifically in health insurance. During Lieberman’s 2006 re-election campaign, he ranked second in the Senate in insurance industry contributions.
Lieberman, also affectionately known as the Senator from Aetna, is “an insurance industry puppet” whose job is to protect private health insurers from competition. But, hey, Joe doesn’t work for nothin'—the insurance companies have greased his palms with $1 million in campaign contributions since 1998, according to the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/health/policy/15lieberman.html
I volunteer for the firing squad and will pay for the bullets
As a long time(20 years) paid up subscriber to Grants Interest Rate Observer, you would be well advised to consider his fundamental stance. In 2006/2007 Grant and his staff called the CDO/CDS market a disaster waiting to happen. Even Grant didn't realize how correct he would eventually be. I read half of the prospectus before my eyes glazed over. Again, a disaster waiting to happen. The old bond bear has been beaten into near extinction over the last 20 years. A new younger more aggressive bear is lurking. When the great banks decide they can make money selling the US Debt, look out below. Higher rates will be billed as a great sign of an expanding, growing economy that will not only be tolerated but encouraged. Uncle Ben will fall way behind the curve for fear of ruining the party. Follow the trading $$$$$$$.
Grant has always been the best read in the financial community. In my old offices we would fight over the Interest Rate Observer arrival. Where he comes up with the insight and humor, time and time again, is beyond me. There may be an occasional up-and-comer, but to beat this Johnny Carson/Woody Guthrie/Will Rogers is going to take a display of staying power few have.
I've had the pleasure of visiting with Grant and used to correspond with him on occasion a decade or two ago. He is exactly what you see...funny, bright as all get out, genuinely likeable, and about 6'7". He is the kind of person for whom you would applaud his success and wish him more of the same.
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What's up with the comments? They all say "r". Were they all lost in the upgrade?
September 19th.
ITLAPD.
My best guess.