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March Non Farm Payrolls: +162K, Below Consensus, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Ex-Census, Weather and Birth-Death NFP Change Is -67K
Summary of Data:
From Stone-McCarthy:
At first blush, about one quarter of the increase in March payrolls appears to be related to the hiring of census workers and another half of the gain seems to be a payback from the weather-related distortions of February. The February payroll decline of 36,000 was revised to a loss of 14,000 while the 26,000 decrease in January payrolls reported a month ago was revised to a gain of 14,000. Thus, there was a cumulative 62,000 net upward revision to January and February payrolls.
Census additions were 48,000 and the weather impacts is expected to be about 100,000, thus the net organic add was just barely positive. Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000.
The U-6 rate increased by 10 bps, to 16.9%.
Average hourly earning decreased by 0.1% to $22.47 even as the average weekly hours increased by six minutes to 34 hours.
The question on everyone's mind: is this statistic improvement in the data sufficient for the Fed to reconsider ZIRP.
The answer is a resounding no. Although keep an eye on the 10 Year. We may just break 4% today.
Below is the Statement of Keith Hall, Commissioner of the BLS
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. Job gains continued in temporary help services and in health care, while job losses occurred in financial activities and in information. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.
Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 in March. Since last September, employment in this industry has grown by 313,000, or 18 percent.
Health care added 27,000 jobs in March, compared with an average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Mining employment rose by 8,000 in March. This industry has added 31,000 jobs since last October.
Federal government employment rose over the month, reflecting ramped-up hiring for Census 2010. In March, the Census Bureau brought on 48,000 temporary workers. Employment in state and local governments was essentially unchanged.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March. Over the last 3 months, manufacturing has added 45,000 jobs, with most of the gains in durable goods industries.
Construction employment held steady in March. This industry had shed an average of 72,000 jobs per month in the prior 12 months.
Employment continued to decline in financial activities (-21,000) and in information (-12,000) in March. Other major
industries showed little change in employment.
Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector declined by 2 cents in March to $22.47. Over the past 12
months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. From February 2009 to February 2010, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 2.2 percent.
Turning to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in March. Over the month, jobless rates for the major worker groups showed little or no change.
Of the 15.0 million persons unemployed in March, 6.5 million had been jobless for 27 weeks or more, an increase of 414,000 over the month. These long-term unemployed made up 44.1 percent of all unemployed persons, a record high.
The employment-population ratio was 58.6 percent in March. This measure has been trending up since its recent low of 58.2 percent in December. Among the employed, the number of individuals working part time who preferred full-time work increased in March to 9.1 million.
In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent.
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I'm puzzled by the junk flag on this particular post, but whatever floats your boat, invisible junker-person.
There is a petulant child who has run wild and is junking many posts. S/he (it) constantly refreshes the page to immediately junk me and others. I could probably figure out who it is if s/he has posted once on this thread but it would takes hours and hours and it ain't worth it.
Momma told me never to argue with idiots, which also includes chasing them.
faustian, in the 70s the world was supposed to end and i ignored it.
The year 2000 scare didnt faze me. All along the survivalists were adding sandbags i thought they were silly.
This time I prepared also. At first 2 months supply seemed enuff. Then i realized this may devolve into several years of supply difficulties. So more seeds for the garden and 2 pallets of steermanure.And a new fence i am finishing a bit at a time. Nor did i think i would ever own a gun again.
We will end up having to protect ourselves as police and fire departments shrink.
Psycologically it is healthy to be prepared as it removes a lot of stress.
Leo is currently attending a seminar on the wonders of Chinese solar stocks. The morning session will explain how highly leveraged Chinese solars can survive a deflationary environment. Anyway, I'll be consulting Miss Cleo more often:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-your-chance-ask-just-what-magic-eight-ball-bls-pulls-its-data#comment-283287
those chinese solar companies, have wharehouses full of finished product, and no end users, though on the books, the inventory has been sold. at least leo still has his job
Goldmans lowered its forecast from +275k to +200k. The actuals come in at +162k below the average forecast of +178.13k. (Official) unemployment still at 9.7% despite the extra hiring and the out of hours indices are UP.
OK, previous months figures revised upwards, but even so, PLEASE, somebody explain this to me...
DavidC
Figures don't lie but liars can figure.
Ummmm... Didn't you get the memo? Ignorance is Strength, 2+2=5, and so on and so forth... Ask no questions and you'll hear no lies.
A good blow to the head from a truncheon should do it.
"More to come"...
Lies?
Manipulation?
Errant BLS birth-death models?
SPY melt-up?
More to come, indeed...
Big miss on NFP number (bullish) == more "stimulus" (bullish) == more Obama speech-a-fying (bullish) == more Benron Bucks (bullish) == more ZRIP (bullish) == DOW 15,000.
Rally on, dudes.
This report is a D+, barely matters. Really, still no hiring with an econ as big as ours. Very uneven three backs since 1/1/10.
Interesting that car sales and ISM were strong. Bonds- don't want reaction.
Stay tuned.
PS, how many of these critters were census govt etc jobs??
Temporary census was 48,000 of them.
Wow, and birth-death model added 84k, or about 2/3rds of the reported private sector gains. I would have to demand proof that's actually happening.
The genius of the birth-death model is it can promote a lie and then be "adjusted away at a later time when it doesn't matter anymore. Like when they wrote off those million jobs they initially said were there but then pulled out the eraser and "adjusted" them away, after the "recovery" had made that bad news immaterial.
There guys are pros. It also helps that the average person wants to believe the lies.
"Daddy, tell me a lie so that I may pretend it's the truth."
Lying has been a valuable public service since before the fall of Rome.
The people don't want reality, they want comfort. They don't even mind if reality then kills them, for they won't be uncomfortable once they are dead. The French humanists gave their people reality, and then the people beheaded the entire noble class and drove the humanists into hiding for 100 years. Okay let's not do that again, I hear them saying in the upper echelons.
Reality bites. Enjoy the pain.
some charts illustrate things so well even i get it.
The us dollar over time showing its value.
Rail and truck traffic charts and the 50 gold chart all make an immidiate impression even on the uneducated.
What we have to fight for is awareness of the populace. None of us can fight the monster alone and it may last another ten years.
Yes, the birth-death model is a complete joke. It's been embarrasisingly bad for years, but it's getting even worse (larger amplitude corrections). They should be ashamed, if they had any sense, regarding this number fiddling. (These are all political numbers, no longer economic.)
I assert there is less noise in the raw data (and that's sad, since I understand noise and the value of adjustments and moving averages). Further, I assert the raw data itself cannot be trusted (the definitions of what's recorded changes due to political pressure, without normalizing to previous data sets, giving the illusion of "improvement"; and data sets are intentionally corrupted, and even outright manufactured from fiction.)
Something else not often mentioned: Reports are always released with "fiddling upwards", and then later revised *downwards* with little/no fanfare, so the next report with "fiddling upwards" indicates positive slope (e.g., "improvement" since the last report). This is fantastic -- with the release of any report, you can actually claim *improvement* EVERY SINGLE TIME, since you only compare "current-fiddling-upwards" with "previous-revised-downwards".
The numbers are entirely fraudulent, and the reporting by the media incompetent (and misleading).
This is entirely correct, demonstrably true, and yet people still won't get it.
You wouldn't be able to explain it to them even with charts.
It's like there is a wall there. We barely understand numbers, and trends blow us away, and then chart fraud might as well be quantum physics in mime.
That is why it needs to burn. It is no longer comprehensible to humans.
My grandpa said when he was a kid he had to walk to school and back, uphill both ways.
you've gotta watch this classic monty python then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe1a1wHxTyo
OMG. I laughed til I was sick!
My husband (a little older than me) & his best friend are always quoting Monty Python at each other.
But now I can see that they are really funny!!!
(Well, Life of Brian was a gutbusting hoot too)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5aN0VmvFn4
So a propos! Jump, you fuckers.
I had no idea these guys were so funny! I always thought Monty Python was, you know, mostly kind of a 70s white guy thing. Now it looks like I'll be spending the rest of the morning on You Tube...
Come on, Parkie!
Thanks for the humor. Really needed it!
:)
ahhhahaha...felt good to laugh.
"Luxury."
Saw the Federal Reserve Cable Network (aka CNBC) for the first time in months yesterday and they had this tarot card reader---oooh, sorry to you professionals out there---economist named Joe LaVorgna (Deutsche Bank?) calling for +350K. Only missed by 54% Joey. Stuff it back up the arse from which you pulled it, fella.
Joe, do YOU still have a job this morning?
Aren't you just a little embarrassed cashing your pay check?
Accountability? Please...
I think economists should be required to manage their own portfolio. They can use whatever vehicle they want - commodities, index funds, hire a hedge fund - but public disclosure of their returns is a requirement. Then we could see who's worth listening to in a practical sense.
+100 They should also be required to have their predictive history on the screen while they are talking...just to add a little perspective.
That guy has a mandate to be bullish. His employer is still levered at some ridiculous rate.
And that's the key. He doesn't even need to be told he must sing the company tune. It's implied when he applies for the job and there are plenty of subtle ways of applying pressure without being overt.
This is how large conspiracies (think herd movements rather than the traditional meaning for conspiracy) can occur without smoke filled back room meetings. We've all worked for companies who have little to no ethics and yet you don't receive a memo telling you to lie or cheat. It's understood. This concept is easily understood when you consider that it is widely accepted that communication is mostly done through body language and tonal inflections while speaking.
Yes I hear what youre saying Cognitive Dissonance, but whats the half-life of a total 'up is down, black is white' propaganda conspiracy theory involving millions of people? I think the decay rate is a very steep curve.
More to the point, who the hell believes ANY of this crap any longer?
From my point of view, there is a big difference between a conspiracy and a widely accepted delusion. I firmly believe there is a conspiracy to promote and perpetuate the illusion of recovery. But in order for this to be successful, there must be a population willing to accept the illusion as fact. The key ingredient is always fear, often applied in very subtle ways.
When a person's livelihood is threatened, ethics, moral character and honesty often take a back seat, justified by the need to survive. The amazing thing is that the person is often defending useless objects they may not even like or want. They are defending their right to be blind mindless consumers, even though many feel completely dissatisfied being precisely what they are defending.
Insanity, particularly all the permutations it manifests into, is always fascinating.
You've described it real well. If you anyone needs more evidence that CD is right, take a look at "The Smartest Guys in the Room" which airs from time to time. Enron traders inducing rolling blackouts and energy hyperinflation in California for fun and profit. Wall Street firms conspiring with Fastow to hide huge Enron losses. Analysts getting threatened for non-superlative reviews. Respected accounting firms swimming right along side. Also, if you need to, remind yourself that Madoff was the HEAD of Nasdaq and floor brokers new he was lying because they never got orders from his firm.
You can't fool most people even most of the time. I think it's mostly a matter of what perspective you view "the people" from. In this country, the educated and/or moneyed crowd usually doesn't count most people "below" them fully as people, so their views don't count.
The senario all this mass stupidity, illusion and delusion defines seems to me analogous to the social "reality" we generally ascribe to Nazi Germany.
I'd like to think we're at least as saavy as folks in the Soviet Union--most people know what's going on. Problem is that most of those fully "in the know" (names, dates and places) are still getting paid de facto to keep their mouths shut.
This doesn't mean that informers will emerge or the "masses" will mobilize or that we won't become a totalitarian state, perhaps even a socialist one when the public's money has been fully drained, but living a mass delusion is a different matter.
Here's the predicament: If that argument is correct, all is hopeless. There's no point even in all us "enlightened" people spending our time talking about it. Except as a support group I suppose.
What's interesting about your post, Bob, is that you're talking about a transaction from two points of view without realiizing it. As any sociopath will tell you, it's easier to rape, pillage and plunder people when you objectify them; on the other hand, it's much easier to perpetuate the rape, pillage and plundering if the victim feels they have some degree of control in what's going on (e.g., the drug addict thinks they have a "special relationship" with the drug dealer.)
So really, all the government needs, is for people to be focused on gaming the system, rather than seeing that the system itself is corrupt, and possibly on the brink of collapse. This will allow the sociopaths to work their power game for the longest time possible, until the jig is up.
As for what takes the current government's place when the house of cards collapses... some would say there is already a shadow government in place, but I'm betting that there are several other groups with competing agendas ready to step in at a moment of crisis, they're just not being too public about it. I think one thing that many on here are hoping is that at least one of those groups is looking to set up stable, fair markets based on a rule of law, combined with sound monetary policy.
Nice seque but I see no confusion of perspectives in my post.
Are you fully serious that "one of those groups is looking to set up stable, fair markets based on a rule of law, combined with sound monetary policy." Would those be the good sociopaths?
My apologies for the misconception. Glad we're on the same page :)
To your other point, I think that there's a group of people (loosely banded at this point) who would best be termed a more patriotic sub-group of the "preppers, " who would be willing to "take back their country" given the opportunity. They are mostly ex-military, and don't like what they see going on but are willing to fly under the radar until things get out of control. I don't see them as sociopaths; rather as people who want to return to a system of limited government like that envisoned by our founding fathers.
Whether they'd be able to succeed, given how accustomed the sheeple have become to being dependent on big government, is a different question...
the first thing they did in iraq, was start killing the professors, and scientists, and community leaders. the targeted asassinations, went on for years. all potential leaders, who couldn't be corrupted, were murdered
The School of the Americas has an excellent curriculum.
I think that there's a group of people (loosely banded at this point) who would best be termed a more patriotic sub-group of the "preppers, " who would be willing to "take back their country" given the opportunity. They are mostly ex-military, and don't like what they see going on but are willing to fly under the radar until things get out of control."
WE ARE EVERYWHERE
They showed this movie/documentary on CNBC Thursday night and again Friday morning. I suspect it will be on again since CNBC started showing it. Actually, they could run it continuously and it wouldn't hurt them a bit.
How do I "flag as awesome"?
Well said, CD.
How about it, Tyler? Marla?
I believe that would be by saying +1000
It is common to flag them as junk. I know, makes no sense, but around here we like it. At ZH we are always doing mental gymnastics thanks to BB and Tim-may and greenshoots and CNBC and GS double-speak and the rest, so flagging your favs as junk is a kind of mental conditioning.
As for the real junk, well it's pretty obvious. Sometimes something is hot because it needs to burn, not because it is cool.
The key ingredient is always fear, often applied in very subtle ways.
I started teaching my children this from the time they were old enough to understand. Fear is the prime motivator in most people's lives. Release your fear and the world becomes a very very different place.
In order for fear to do it's ugly work, it must be accepted as real. Thus we create the reality that makes the fear all powerful. Perception is reality only if we accept our perception as "real", either physically or as an idea or concept.
A blind person who doesn't see (meaning he isn't aware of) the car about to hit him doesn't experience fear. Someone who screams "Look out" introduces a potential reality to the blind man. If the blind man accepts the shouted warning as real, he feels fear. If not, no fear. The car is immaterial to the fear for this blind man.
This is the key to the fear mongering by various entities, governmental or not. They can shout all they want, about things that are "real" or not. The response is entirely up to us. If we wish to believe these entities (for a host of reasons) and we are taught the proper response to all this shouting is "fear" we accept the shouts as "real" and internalize it as something to be feared.
We make "real" the illusion created by these entities. Again, it doesn't matter if the item shouted about has actual physical form or it's just an "idea" such as terrorists. This is why I always say that perception is realty. We "make" (bake) reality fresh moment to moment, 24/7/365. The "world" (aka "reality") is simply there to help reinforce our delusion(s).
Very well said.
And fear is the mind-killer, setting up a vicious feedback loop as you lose the mental acuity to struggle with fear, becoming more fearful.
I recall a quote that works here; "The future masters of technology will have to be light hearted and intelligent; the machine easily masters the dumb and the grim."
If I told you we are all stuck in a giant machine, and that most of us are being slowly ground into living human sausage, would you gauge me insane?
It's okay if you did. I'm used to it. But keep in mind that I'm the one here with the long whiskers.
"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain."
Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear.
DUNE by Frank Herbert
Thanks for digging that up. I couldn't be bothered :) Though I'm now surprized it was from Dune. Dune was a strange book, with more than a few parallels to our current situation.
The theme is EVOLUTION in a very hard headed, world destroying manner
I gotta read that book again...it's been years. No, decades.
Bravo. Cheers to a higher state of conciousness
As Tyler observed, working jobs we hate to buy shit we don't need. But the phenomenal and enduring popularity of the movie reflects a current of awareness and dissatisfaction that is alive (if not well) in America.
Likewise with The Matrix. Many, many millions of people with sophisticated conceptual tools gained from lousy popular culture. Doesn't mean they'll be put to use, but they are real.
This whole delusion perspective seems intensely invested in viewing "the masses" as stupid and "the enlightened" as, well, what better than to be enlightened, dear friend?
And the more you argue against it, the more enlightened and special it gets . . .
"But the phenomenal and enduring popularity of the movie reflects a current of awareness and dissatisfaction that is alive (if not well) in America."
What was that quote attributed to Einstein?
"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."
http://rescomp.stanford.edu/~cheshire/EinsteinQuotes.html
Bert was a truly excellent cat. Not many get away pulling the kind of disturbing, unnerving and unsettling shyte he pulled. Man do we ever need that kind of twisted mind right now.
Got a paradym here needs some busting.
THX1138 was a movie, ahead of it's time, robert duvall
American Nod and Wink reality. The "price" of keeping a job.
Funny thing is that there are always "irritants" to the prevailing suspension of disbelief in every workplace. People who make the sarcastic remarks even in meetings. People who ask the tough questions yet keep their jobs--because they are often the best at their jobs. They exchange knowing glances with others at the table as the bullshit drama rolls on. Others take them aside after the meetings to "process" things and share with someone their own take on the bullshit as a genuine reality check. People always talk.
The notion that, because nobody's rioting or otherwise raising hell, the public--aka "the sheeple"--is mentally deficient or "sleeping" in a stupor of ignorantly willing bliss is greatly exagerated, imo. Not in theory, but on the basis of my own experience.
It's easy to be cynical. For especially intelligent and creative people it can become an art form. My objection to indulging that inclination regularly is that it ironically promotes the same paralysis and impotence that it claims to abhor.
"It's easy to be cynical. For especially intelligent and creative people it can become an art form. My objection to indulging that inclination regularly is that it ironically promotes the same paralysis and impotence that it claims to abhor."
Exactly. If you follow this line of thought to it's conclusion, you wind up back where you started. We are all part of the control system, even the radicals, misfits and cynics. On a daily basis, I fight the inclination to accept that it's all futile. The illusion is complete and brilliantly constructed. After all, we humans have been perfecting it over thousands of years. The height of human progress is insanity to the nth degree.
I like how you think Bob. You have the courage to recognize your own part in the dance, yet still move forward. I salute you. Most people who get to this point capitulate and allow themselves to be embraced by the sweet caress of insanity.
My point, however, is that while the illusion may be admired for a certain type of "brilliance," it is in no way "complete."
Agreed.
I used the word "complete" to indicate that it's sufficiently complete to fool most of the people most of the time. It is not absolute nor does it need to be. As I mentioned above about effective lies containing just enough of the generally accepted "truth" to be plausible, the same concept applies to the overall illusion.
I have been thinking about a stage version of 'The Tibetan Book of the Dead' in which it would be extremely clear that this 'choice' is what is at issue. As you say the illusion has been constructed over thousands of years...but the Tibetan Bhuddists had about that long to carefully construct the philosophy, spirituality, art and metaphor to describe it.
Just sayin'. Demons with your chaos-order boundary condition sir?
australian aboriginal legend states, that the proud ones dreamed this world into existence, and now the dream is dreaming itself
Many of your points are well-taken. I agree that "sleeping sheeple" aren't always ignorant of the facts. Taking off on a well-kown aphorism: they may be aware of some of the lies all of the time and all of the lies some of the time. But most prefer to remain asleep as a conscious choice. The path of least resistance for most of the sheeple most of the time.
Context is also critical: when society looks for conspiracies then sheeple are more apt to turn into people and come forth with revelations. Ellsberg's Pentagon Papers, Deep Throat, the Vellaci Papers, Serpico all come to mind as individuals who revealed massive and ruthless conspiracies, and all occurred in an era that was receptive.
Today few want to come forth with the news that "the Emperor has no clothes" because of the depressing reality that this fantasy is hiding. The era is not (yet) conducive to revelations not just because of the power of the perpetrators, but also the abject desperation of the sheeple.
Agreed, the "sheeple" (a devaluative term that strikes me as disempowering by virtue of its widespread use by the cognoscenti) are desperate.
Talk to lower class and unemployed working class people and you'll find that the vast majority know the score. They won't be able to track the intricacies of financial discussions here, but they know the bottom line better than the intelligencia. They are living it. They are not sleeping, willfully or otherwise.
I don't claim to have a crystal ball, but I strongly believe that if more distress permeates the middle class, a critical mass of not only awareness but indignant self-respect will be unleashed.
I grow more worried every day, however, about the influence of hip analyses that seem founded upon sleeping "sheeple."
Not only is the model flawed, certainly not rebust enough to account for a whole lot of variance, but--even worse--it's disabling.
I'm not saying it's altogether wrong, that I don't understand it or even strongly empathize, but it strikes me as something that should be avoided like crack, in spite of its allure.
I bought the Big Issue last week, when I was last downtown.
The man said to me that his business was very slow. I said times are hard and people don't have so much money or jobs anymore.
He said he thought the government must be lying to us. He said he didn't believe Australia (where I live) has really 'avoided the recession'. (Yes, the propaganda here actually is that.) He said he couldn't understand how people could carry these huge mortgages that just keep growing and how the market is booming. He said he didn't think the housing boom could last.
I told him he is absolutely right, the government is lying and the blogosphere is lit up with the truth. I said the property market stopped booming a long time ago and even the government is not able to keep it afloat now that China is tightening.
He smiled, and I could swear he looked happier. His eyes kind of lit up.
Not because he was glad about the economy, but when I get that look it's because I have someone confirm that I'm NOT crazy, and that my senses and my logic are actually still working fine despite my betters telling me my up is down...maybe I'm projecting on him there, but he seemed sunnier to me. He wasn't arguing, anyhow. And he did give me a big smile.
I wasn't there, so I can't offer an opinion on whether you were projecting, but I can tell you I get that response almost all the time.
People may be ignorant, i.e., unable to discuss things in technical terms, but most ain't stupid by any means.
Your observation that "the blogosphere is lit up with the truth" even speaks to this. Hell, we may all be geniuses, yet I find it unlikely that we millions partaking in this blogosphere are really all that special. It's just "our bag," a medium that fits us. But that doesn't mean the absent average Joe is a moron.
Just because we talk about it doesn't mean we are the only ones who get it. My NEIGHBOR has only been out of work for a couple months and I have NEVER talked to her about economics or anything at any great length and she sat me down a week ago and was talking about everything that so many people have come to realize. You know you think you know people when they have jobs but when they lose them you learn things about them. Like that they love history, or are closet philosphers or that they DO want to learn economics until it was treated as a shallow boring piece of crap subject in school without all the interconnecting intrigues and intricacies.
Nah, his eyes lit up because you are a hot babe with a brain and you were talking to him. What were you wearing? Confess harlot.
:-)
Sorry, I could not resist.
In reality, I am certain you are right. I went to a business banquet, was seated next to a young man who was the student of a close friend of mine. We did the flirt, at least that is how I am thinking of it any more, he says he is looking into living in a commune, I tell him I am tracking the economy quite a bit, and before you know it we are finishing each other's sentences. I start giving him ZH level detail on some of the stories he is aware of. He stops the conversation and tells me I am torturing myself. He says "We're fucked, what more do you need to know?" He bought me wine. We were doomer partners for the evening, sitting amongst strangers, watching the spectacle of being served course after course of lovely food, having excellent service, yet talking collapse. Eerie experience.
Eerie, but enviable! Don't you sometimes feel like sans-culottes, or maybe Scarlet Pimpernell groupies...finding now and then, a person who knows the secret language...the Truth!! And occasionally, converting one more to the mission...it's feels a bit secret, underground, and you're right, it IS kinda flirtatious! No wonder it feels so rebellious and naughty.
OK, definitely starting to get carried away here. An effect you tend to have on me! See it's your fault, busting my sauve dispassionate forum image. (hehe) Confess you say...like it's a bad thing!! Confession be part of the fun.
As to what I was wearing...well, I only remember the shoes for sure (one can never ignore shoes), and my wedding ring! hahahaha
I knew on this forum it was only a matter of time before I heard, What are you wearing? Didn't expect it from a sizzling chick, tho... :-P
Friend of mine sent me a pic for comment - she didn't say who this is but the two important pieces of data are:
1) blistering
2) Spanish
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1360/1415128203_400e87f894.jpg
And surely, of age!??! :-D Spain apparently still has one or two high-value exports!
Hey! Howd my pic get on the internet???
LOL - if that's you, Hulk, then I bet ripped purple pants never looked so good.
LOL
Loved the "Confess harlot" line. ZH wouldn't be the same without MsCreant.
"He says "We're fucked, what more do you need to know?" He bought me wine. We were doomer partners for the evening, sitting amongst strangers, watching the spectacle of being served course after course of lovely food, having excellent service, yet talking collapse. Eerie experience."
I understand the point you're making here MsCreant and I'm not arguing with you. Just ranting a bit. We are not fucked. The young man has simply accepted the choice given to him by the conditions placed before him by the powers that be in such a way as to induce the "logical" conclusion. "We are fucked."
Ergo, why fight a losing battle, why resist? Not only don't resist but put down any weapons you might have in your hand or don't even bother picking up what is useless to begin with. This apathetic response is carefully constructed by the control system. This is why the powers rub our nose in our own shit in the same way an abusive spouse tells his wife she is powerless and can't do anything about his abuse. To humiliate us and induce the desired reaction, that of defeat.
MsCreant, I've watched your very brave and public battle with bouts of depression, anger, frustration and bravado and I commend you for doing so. Very few are willing to be so open and personal in a blog that rewards anonymity. I suspect many ZH readers and posters have been emboldened by your humanization of deep dark subjects we all wish to keep hidden from view. And I know you aren't personalizing what this young man said.
But we are not fucked unless and until we accept that we are fucked. We have all the power and the only way we can be controlled is to be convinced it would be in our best interest to hand our power over to our abuser, in much the same way the abused wife doesn't even attempt to escape while the bastard husband is at work or screwing his girl friend. This country has been abused, terrorized and traumatized by manipulative bastards who use shock and awe techniques perfected by Pol Pot, Hitler and other sociopaths to humiliate, demoralize and disarm.
We are suffering from abused spouse syndrome, PTSD, addictions of various kinds and a whole host of others conditions. But they are the ones who are fucked and they know it. This is precisely why they are striking out as they are in exactly the same way the worst beatings by the husband occur when the wife shows her first signs of independence. He will soon be defeated and he knows it, so in desperation he applies even more of what is no longer effective. She is quickly learning the cell door is open and she can leave at any time. It is she who has the power, not him.
Keep the faith. We are close to their end and they are losing.
Never give up;
Never surrender;
Teach your children;
Enjoy life.
"Talk to lower class and unemployed working class people and you'll find that the vast majority know the score. They won't be able to track the intricacies of financial discussions here, but they know the bottom line better than the intelligentsia. They are living it. They are not sleeping, willfully or otherwise."
Thank you for bringing this up. This is a theme I talk about often here on ZH but seems to be missed for I suspect ego reasons. While I agree that the lower class and unemployed are much more aware of the illusion and most certainly a lot of this has to do with the fact that they are living with the reality, I feel there are deeper reasons for why the intelligentsia do not see the illusion as well or as clearly, despite the fact they are intellectually capable of doing so.
To be brief and thus woefully incomplete, since the intelligentsia are in effect the back bone of the system, the higher functioning part of the system, their entire reason for existence is to perpetuate the system. That is a terrible oversimplification but like I said, I wish to be brief.
How does the hand denounce the arm or heart or brain. How does the brain declare the heart an illusion when the brain is dependent upon the heart. And so on. In a sweeping generalization that doesn't do the subject justice, the lower down the ladder a person is, the less likely they are to be captured by the system and thus the illusion.
I have a client who is a high priced lawyer in private practice and who's sole client is the government. This person is simply incapable of seeing the root problems within the system, let alone the government. He constantly explains away this or that information as an outlier or an aberration or the source is unreliable. Sure he can and does admit that there are "problems" but to admit that the problems are systematic and unsolvable within the current structure not only threatens his livelihood but also his worldview and his ego.
Thus it's always rejected and never given a fair hearing. In fact, he uses his great intellect to dance around the entire issue, coming up with fantastic and convoluted reasons for his rejections, which on the surface seem reasonable but when examined closely have more holes than a colander.
"To be brief and thus woefully incomplete, since the intelligentsia are in effect the back bone of the system, the higher functioning part of the system, their entire reason for existence is to perpetuate the system. "
Again you're perceptive. This time around the "intelligentsia" have become the working stiffs. Used to be just "blue" and some "white collar". But since the great expansion in access to secondary and post secondary education there's an inversion of the critical mass of employed individuals (once called "wage earners") from what some are calling "lower classes" to what we would now call "intelligentsia". By virtue of this "intelligent inflation" there's a distinct loss of political power in these ranks, "status deflation".
And the new "intelligentsia" are now particularly vulnerable because of how this economy is structured. 30 years ago a major structural shift was made to ensure that the economy could actually accommodate the swelling ranks of the highly educated. This was one of the driving forces behind the conception of the "service economy". Unfortunately, as you know, this economy hung improbably on the flawed notion that we as a nation could spend more than we earned, that we could export our "intelligence" and import the fruits of a manufacturing economy that we gradually dismantled. The results speak for themselves.
All along the "intelligentsia" or average working stiff of the service economy was aware of the fundamental flaws in the logic. The flow of evidence also spoke to the dissonance. That's why we needed to hear "deficits don't matter" and "when the going gets tough the tough go shopping". Hence the reason why by the 90s a film like The Matrix resonated so deeply with society.
Of course people don't have to be sheeple. And conspiracies make it difficult. However in this situation it would take a willingness to face a major disillusionment and a depressing reality. And people are still unwilling to fully acknowledge that the drunken party is over and the casino will no longer honor their credit.
Mainly those who still have credit, from what I see. And they have become a distinct minority group.
Ahhhh CE one of my favorite topics up here in MI. I have watched for years as my colleagues in the automotive industry buy the cars designed and often built in other countries as they refuse the shitty UAW built cars. So what if they lose their jobs. So what if steel workers lose theIr jobs. Textile workers, fuck em too. Now that sw is done in Bangalore. Hardware design in Taiwan and Hungary etc... All automotive electronic manufacturing, automated though it is, is done in Mexico .... And leaving for China.
What's my point ??
We were all connected in a virtuous cycle of consumer capatism. The smart built it, the dumb made it. We were both well paid. We denied the support industry nothing so that waitresses and real estate brokers got a taste. It's all bankrupt, collapsed and ruined now, pretend all you want to the contrary. Trade with China ensures it's never coming back. The race to the bottom is passed the point of no return.
I'm gonna flag this as junk myself..
I've been a lurker here for some time before deciding to join. I must say, I enjoy your posts, and responses.
And your comments on "worldview and ego" are amazingly accurate. Just ask any* trader how important they are.
*there are exceptions.
Then how do you explain my wife? She's an Ivy league grad who's a lawyerette at a TBTF real estate enterprise a level or so below signing SEC filings.
She not only doesn't want to know the truth, she doesn't believe 'things are that bad'. After all, the data they receive indicate that the situation is 'getting better'. (One of their subs is widely referenced in the media, including ZH.)
Thank goodness she has a frugal gene; we live well below our means, so I'm able to plan through survival strategies.
Sounds like she's too busy to really think about extra stuff that has no place in either her job or her life. Not to mention that would cause her problems perhaps in both if she did.
Worldview and ego like CD said (no offense).
Her "world" and role in it aren't (to her knowledge) in jeapordy. And i would imagine most people that she associates with are in the same situation as her. Hence, "its not that bad."
I commented earlier that my significant other has the same mentality. "Its not that bad" because doctors don't feel it like others do.
the mind is reductive, not the generator of conciousness, but the regulator.total conciousness is the natural state, but we must reduce our awareness, to the things, our survival, prosperity, and happiness, depend on. or at least, what we perceive to be vital. it's hard to open up, when we expend so much energy, blocking out unnecessary feedback
delacroix, thats why i keep my life Very simple. Few needs, less wants. But a continious good moment i treasure. And thats up to each one of us. Its all a trade off .
I can relate - my wife is in financials - very successful. She has made it clear that she realizes something "bad" is out there, but for her to focus on it would detract from her success. Fortunately, she has me. We agreed long ago that I would be the "concerned citizen" in our family and let her know when it was time to bug out, and, keep us from being hurt again (financially) in the meantime. It's working.
Village Idiot,
I wish to discuss the dynamic you mention in your post, not your personal situation. Please don't take offense.
What a wonderfully dysfunctional functioning relationship. To be able to interact with so much unsaid can be quite neurotic. Yet this is the state of the world today, two worlds separated solely by an agreement not to fully acknowledge each other's existence.
Like an alcoholic who rages whenever the family tries to talk about the problem, the solution is for the alcoholic to agree to be a "reasonable" or "functioning" drunk and the family to agree not to push the issue as long as it remains reasonable and under "control". This often results in the family of the alcoholic being just as sick (meaning in denial) as the alcoholic.
Typically the spouse of the alcoholic is the sickest one, since she (generally "she") is the one whose brain is not pickled yet still choosing to stay. Not only common sense, but true.
But why pathologize "Village Idiot"'s strategy for dealing with a situation that both consciously recognize: "She has made it clear that she realizes something "bad" is out there, but for her to focus on it would detract from her success."
At least it frees up the Village Idiot to monitor the fire at ZH. There is a constructive use for specialization of roles besides covering up deep-seated psychological problems.
How dysfunctional of me - I am just thrilled to be the center of what could be construed as a real negative!! Actually, no disrespect taken, as my wife and I have considered the potential consequences of a "separation of thought" as mentioned, between us. Here is what we came up with - the best thing we can do at this moment is to cover each others backs. The family needs my wife to replenish what has been taken away, and, the family needs me to be covering for the family while she is grabbing the proverbial loot. Kind of like a bank robbery, only we are taking back which was rightfully ours. She does have a bit of a drinking problem though.
Did I ever imagine that I would be thinking this way? In the United States of America? Never. It's an out-in-the-open disgrace what is happening to the citizens of my country. When I re-read what I said about "having each others backs", I can imagine a dirty faced couple, foraging for food to feed their child, afraid. Nice.
Thank you for pointing that out. Another wonderful thought thread for me to follow.
B9K9 and Village Idiot,
It sounds like we all fulfill the same role in our family units. The wife is a physician, and is not interested in the "ugly" truth. I'm a corporate debtor bankruptcy attorney. Needless to say, the clusterf*%^ that is the CRE sector is in my face, every single day. She actually got really pissed when I pointed out that physicians' very high standard of living has probably passed its golden age (the rise in physician income has plenty to do with the economies of scale that medicare/medicaid and third party insurance brought to the table - if there's no money to pay for those promises, how are the docs going to get paid?).
Even though she doesn't want to know, when I told her it was time to open different bank accounts because we had accounts at the two worst bank in the state, she just said "take care of it." When I told her why we needed to hedge the paper world with some bullion, she said "I don't care about that. If you think we need it, go ahead." She sometimes reminds me of Lenina/Julia. At least she lets herself understands just enough to go along with me on these issues. I suppose that makes me Bernard/Winston.
I consider it my duty to have my family prepared for all eventualities...
Old saying - "Don't mind that the mule is blind, just load the wagon". I'm sure you pride yourself by protecting your family. Take care.
I have the wonderful misfortune of being married to someone in my own profession, architecture. And of course we both see it happening. She's almost as scared as I am, but is busier at her work than I am so I'm the one adhered to the blog daily. So my self-assigned job is difficult: absorb as much as I can, and then transmit what little I do understand to her. Explaining it helps me understand more, but I have to say I don't explain most of it very well...I don't know how to do it because the language and logic is new to me, and so a lot of it gets filtered out. It's a bit frustrating.
I was there too. Took a little time to sort things out.
Edit: I thought you were referring to your wife when you said it's like you are communicating in a different language. That part I'm over - the language of ZH I'm still working on. Cheers!
Yeah...no, we have our 'mars vs venus' moments, but my struggle is in trying to explain to her the reasons for the knotty feeling in the pit of my stomach, without sounding like a halfbaked wingnut. Thankfully she's a little smarter than I am so she pretty much gets it.
For most humans, their source of sustenance = reality. She must make a lot of money, therefore does not see the lies and deception or have empathy for those who are not able to overcome troubles we are going through. If she were to be reduced to living off food stamps and have zero net worth and zero income, she would see in a big hurry. Not wishing that for you or her, just saying what most people are like, 'its not affecting me, therefore it does not exist'.
Cookiemonster, thats a really good point. Years of one meal per day and living in a bag under a bridge was my preparation. Shivering during the night , the teeth literally rattle in your mouth and you cant stop it.
Years ago i caught a freight outa houston on a sunny afternoon. 2 am i awoke to find the sleeping bag soaked so i got out of it. Teeth would not quit chattering, both doors wide open i about froze to death. Ended up running in place and singing gospel music loudly. Got into new orleans 5 am soaked to the bone barely able to walk.
When you have nothing, even a drink of water can be hard to get.
PS had no idea it froze in the south. Didnt see sign of rain in texas. LOL
Had to fight of a bum to get on the train in the first place
It sounds like you've seen a lot MH. You will handle the end game better than most. People who have old school talents will be valued for their abilities. Wet and cold is no fun, I remember relamping 6 pole lights from a bucket truck in the middle of a sleet storm, just miserable. The 'ministration is going to fudge the numbers just enough to make them look good, but not too good. Gotta have fudge room for next month. Life is going to get really interesting over the next year. Hopefully we will all be able to cope.
Absinthe , i wouldnt have your job for nothing. Folks dont appreciate the risks electrical service workers take. I topped a tree on a rainy day to get more ocean view. So i climbed up near the top with my little hand saw.
Cut the wrong side, top fell over and was longer than i thought. Hit the electric high voltage lines. sparks flew , smoke arose from it and the current was coming down the tree, i could feel it as i grabbed the outermost part of the branch and worked my way down without getting too close to the vibrant trunk. Now came a choice, take the aluminum ladder or jump the last 20 ft. I jumped knowing i may get a branch up my butt or land on an old stump.
I jumped , stood up and was still tingling with my hair straight up and feeling curly. Whew. That was a day off work!
lol...oh man. I want to go camping with you and listen to stories all night.
**edit: and I hardly ever go camping.
lol. Funnier as we age isnt it?
For me, a good portion of my initial interaction with people involves figuring out where their "reality meter" is set and adjusting my communications with them accordingly. It makes things go much more smoothly for all involved.
One thing I gave up on a long ago was being an evangelist. I'll happliy help friends and loved ones get their houses in order, and will converse with those who have similar interests, but unfortunately, it is true that the vast majority of people would rather just have their bread and circus at the end of the day.
+1
+2
+1
Well said.
Although I'm finding it harder and harder to communicate with those whose only concern is the "bread and circus."
I just don't have the patience. I'm sure it has less to do with them and more to do with me. I'm fearful, for the last two years have been a sort of limbo for me. Which in some sense makes planning for the future slightly more difficult in dealing with those who have no worries.
There's also a self-interest factor at play here; the preppers learned it a long time ago: you don't go advertising your level of preparedness for any given crisis to people, or when the defecation hits the oscillator, people will come out of the cracks expecting you to help them out.
Yeah, start having that kind of coversation with someone who has their head in the sand.
Yup. Roll out the Big Lie. No little lie will do for this.
Same is true for just about anyone on that station. Whenever you hear any forecasts on CNBS, think about what position that person's firm has, and if you had that same position, what would you say?
For example, if you owned a large chunk of AAPL, and were on air talking about AAPL, of course you are going to say "it is going to the moon".
Most managers, especially those that appear on CNBS, are "long only".
His numbers were off by 54% because he got the position of Jupiter confused with Neptune.
I agree, though; at this point all he can do is stuff his numbers up Uranus.
LOL
I think most of those guys got screwed up when they downgraded Pluto.
- There's Klingons around Uranus ??
Beavis.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable"
John Kenneth Galbraith
Actually, LaVorgna was one of the few economist who were bearish during the early and middle stages of the meltup. I guess he went to the "if you can't beat them, join them" mentality. He seems to have gone to the uber-bullish camp.
and how many jobs does it take to keep up with population? A lot more than those numbers and a big chunk are temp workers anyway.
Hopium rules again, must be a mighty strong strain they have manufactured!
About +200K to keep up with new entries into the workforce.
Heeeeee........Heeeeee........Cnbc Pumping Chimpanzees cut off and end interview with Pimco Mohamed El-Erian when he starts talking about structural issues wrt to NFP report with Cnbc Pumping Guests.
LMAO.
I've noticed a subtle change over the past 2 or 3 months among a few professionals, including Mohamed El-Erian and John Maudlin, who are beginning to say "Ah, wait a minute guys, there are some very serious problems coming round the bend that we need to consider".
John Maudlin?
hahahahaha
C'mon, he's not that sad! I actually thought his 'muddle-through' idea was pretty damn chipper and optimistic, altho he seems to be reluctantly setting it aside lately for a darker view...
"altho he seems to be reluctantly setting it aside lately for a darker view..."
Um mm.............like I said, over the past 2-3 months, some have been changing their tune.
aw, I knew you were right.
I was just making fun of your typo.
Just being, you know, mature and all. :-)
LOL
I didn't even see the typo, even after you showed it to me in your response. Would that be considered a Freudian slip on my part?
I think so.
That's "typing with an accent."
LOL
Correct. You should see my raw typing. It's embarrassing and sometimes I can't figure out what I typed. Spell check helps clear a lot up but even then I make mistakes because spell check will give me choices. I will pick the wrong one because it looks phonetically correct.
For a few days on ZH, I was using loose instead of lose. Someone was kind enough to point it out to me and I (hopefully) won't make that mistake again. But it looks bad and feel worse.
Some time ago I had the chance to ask MEE this question: 'do you think the dollar survives as the world's reserve currency?'
'no' He followed up with an obscure remark about the 'initial conditions' like it was some kind of boundary value partial differential equation. It's not like he has all the answers, but at least he's taken a closer look at it.
Please, somebody, the U6 number ?.
BLS stopped creating that nice table with the rows for U1-U6 a few months ago... Why ???
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
find table A-15
U-6 16.8 -> 16.9
I can't believe it was that easy to find!
Remember, U-6 doesn't include people no longer counted. If you've exhausted emergency unemployment benefits, you've dropped off, and you're no longer counted (and those people are dropping off in record numbers).
The 16.9% unemployment in U-6 is low. We're already in the 20's%.
well said mikla! and those folks have no money to spend or pay credit cards or pay mortgages and ad infinitum.....
amazing how the financial press does not discuss this
"amazing how the financial press does not discuss this"
Why don't we ask them? Seriously.
That's just frickin' awesome.
U6 up to 16.9
Thnx...
RALLY!!! RALLY!!! Make daddy rich! :)
If anyone calls this a surprise to the downside or better than expected they need to be stripped of whatever titles, degrees, awards, and honors they might have, and shot on sight.
Spooks and Bond futures
uh...that second one...it's like the little monkey drawing the graph just fell asleep there at the end.
LOL!!
B/D padjustment: +81k
Temp Census: +48k
So, the true net was a measely +33k.
And will that adjustment by mentioned anywhere? No of course not, more CON tricks
No. It's Census +48K, B/D adj +81K, and Other Temp +40 leaving the real number -7K.
Ah ... good catch.
Actually that is high. The B/D adjustment should be negative. The real number would then shift down even further into negative territory. -23k sounds about right. Seems that is what ADP reported Wednesday...
Who was calling for a 3ook plus number here ? I think its great how everyone like to predict, this Managed Guvmint Economy has its own ways.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-your-chance-ask-just-what-magic-eight-ball-bls-pulls-its-data#comment-283287
the size of the conspiracy is breath-taking.