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March Non Farm Payrolls: +162K, Below Consensus, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Ex-Census, Weather and Birth-Death NFP Change Is -67K
Summary of Data:
From Stone-McCarthy:
At first blush, about one quarter of the increase in March payrolls appears to be related to the hiring of census workers and another half of the gain seems to be a payback from the weather-related distortions of February. The February payroll decline of 36,000 was revised to a loss of 14,000 while the 26,000 decrease in January payrolls reported a month ago was revised to a gain of 14,000. Thus, there was a cumulative 62,000 net upward revision to January and February payrolls.
Census additions were 48,000 and the weather impacts is expected to be about 100,000, thus the net organic add was just barely positive. Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000.
The U-6 rate increased by 10 bps, to 16.9%.
Average hourly earning decreased by 0.1% to $22.47 even as the average weekly hours increased by six minutes to 34 hours.
The question on everyone's mind: is this statistic improvement in the data sufficient for the Fed to reconsider ZIRP.
The answer is a resounding no. Although keep an eye on the 10 Year. We may just break 4% today.
Below is the Statement of Keith Hall, Commissioner of the BLS
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. Job gains continued in temporary help services and in health care, while job losses occurred in financial activities and in information. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.
Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 in March. Since last September, employment in this industry has grown by 313,000, or 18 percent.
Health care added 27,000 jobs in March, compared with an average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Mining employment rose by 8,000 in March. This industry has added 31,000 jobs since last October.
Federal government employment rose over the month, reflecting ramped-up hiring for Census 2010. In March, the Census Bureau brought on 48,000 temporary workers. Employment in state and local governments was essentially unchanged.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March. Over the last 3 months, manufacturing has added 45,000 jobs, with most of the gains in durable goods industries.
Construction employment held steady in March. This industry had shed an average of 72,000 jobs per month in the prior 12 months.
Employment continued to decline in financial activities (-21,000) and in information (-12,000) in March. Other major
industries showed little change in employment.
Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector declined by 2 cents in March to $22.47. Over the past 12
months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. From February 2009 to February 2010, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 2.2 percent.
Turning to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in March. Over the month, jobless rates for the major worker groups showed little or no change.
Of the 15.0 million persons unemployed in March, 6.5 million had been jobless for 27 weeks or more, an increase of 414,000 over the month. These long-term unemployed made up 44.1 percent of all unemployed persons, a record high.
The employment-population ratio was 58.6 percent in March. This measure has been trending up since its recent low of 58.2 percent in December. Among the employed, the number of individuals working part time who preferred full-time work increased in March to 9.1 million.
In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent.
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Is this a conspiracy or just a bunch of people trying to keep the game of musical chairs going because they're afraid of what's going to happen when the music stops?
So this is what a couple of trillion buys us?
Wasn't someone just saying it was closer to $200T? Notional of course, but it's a fine large number isn't it? I'm going with that one these days. Until they hit on a larger one.
I want to see CNBC interview CEO of any company that actually hired 100 people, they cant because no one did. You'd think if all was well, they could summon the CEO of Caterpillar, certainly they hired, right?
Gallup's take.
Underemployment Rises to 20.3% in Marchhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/127091/Underemployment-Rises-March.aspx
Gallup is a private company. Apparently they do not accept bribes either. I think I will rely on what they report.
10Y slowly creeping to that magical 4 spot.
Will someone explain the significance of four percent for me? I know that increasing the cost of debt is bad, but are there derivatives that trigger at this number or something?
....10y wired to mortgage interest rates. Even a little ramp in the 10 shuts out the just-makin-the-qual prospective mortgagee.
Well, the full Q1 2010 Bureau of Lies and Statistics numbers are in and it looks like somebody really blew it on their job creation prognostication. Leo? Leo??? LEO?!?
"Buehler? Buehler?"
And they will point to the fact the futures went up to prove that this is a good number..
just looked at a MSM web site .... and yes, big headlines, biggest job creation in 3 years.....
What a complete and utter scam
The DOL should have to lead off these news releases with:
"Once upon a time..."
After these dismal NFP #'s - Castanza is buying all he can on the Bizzaro World Stock Exchange.
Anyone listening to the BLS call? Their numbers cannot determine if a census hire is temp or full-time. If some ya-ho works a full hour for the census, he gets counted. I think I'll discount that 48K number a little bit more now.
Good news and some bad news here. Firstly the good news is that the labor force participation rate has stabilized and the bad news is that there were no real new jobs. Yes there are the census people employed, and lots employed to help people find jobs and a few nurses to look after the increasingly aging population. One statistic that needs a further examination is that the number of part time workers has increased yet the work week has increased. This perhaps suggests something similar may have happened to the UK where manufacturing is up yet the rest of the economy is still downtrending. This probably cannot be attributed to a fall in the currency but may just reflect export of machinery (seems to up) to China. Which leaves the question just how exposed is the world economy to China begining to close down those stimulus taps.
I'll believe we're in a recovery when the average workweek starts climbing to the point that they're consistently paying overtime.
there will be no recovery until the jp morgan manipulation of the silver/gold market blows up, and the fuse has been lit. when the smoke clears and the debris is cleared away. then the recovery.
Yeah, I was being rhetorical. I wanna LOL... but I don't... but I do...
Agreed boiow
Comex blow out ends up being a good thing ha ha
Hey what happened to Goldies 275K guestimate? CNBC, can you find a CEO that hired a few hundred people and interview them? Surely many such eager CEO's wish to show pictures and data of all the hires they made.
Utterly pathetic, this is nothing but propaganda, the entire damn country.
IMO, the American public is nearing breaking point but not quite there yet. Evidence of this is in the quiet streets. Big government is anticipating this will soon change for the worse and sending clear messages that revolt will not be tolerated as evident in the bogus arrest of Hutaree members in Michigan.
The government understand that there is no such thing as a recovery without generating new jobs. This of course cannot occur until we knock out some major competition, especially from Asia i.e. Toyota recalls and China currency manipulation accusations. In turn, the USD gets depreciated making exports competitive and housing gets an artificial lift.
Thank you for talking about crazy Aunt May who's locked in the attic. As much as we here on ZH talk about the whole damn place going to hell, few wish to visualize the actual trip down.
To 'paraquote' V for Vendetta:
'I don't know what's going to happen...but I can guess. With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty. And then, the government will be forced do the only thing it knows how to do...'
Who was it a day or two ago who posted, five minutes to midnight?
[midnight] That sort of visual is moving, but probably not appropriate here.
It's not ever a moment of inflection or rupture. It is always a long slide and glide into ... whatever comes next. Something not pretty. I estimate (without out any data to back it) that we are 12 months into a 60 month process of recognizable decay, the results of which will be another 600 month process of gradual, generational restructuring to a much simplier, quieter and slower way of living.
It will be 5 minutes to midnight for a long, long time. Getting darker and darker with every passing hour. But as they say; the journey and not the destination.
While the gradual slide is certainly possible, it sounds too much to me like the 'controlled contraction' that the Fed is supposedly managing. I don't know how smooth the devolutionary ride is really going to be; there are too many unknowns for it to be a sure thing. We may hit a pothole that turns into a cliff.
Keep in mind that even a cliff is relative. Enough cliffs over a long enough time and you look back and see it as a long slide. But you'd have to go a long ways down to gain that kind of perspective.
If we don't then you will be right. If we do, then I will be right.
Hope I'm wrong and you are right.
One possible breaking-point scenario:
We "throw the bums out" in November. Six to nine months later, people hoping for change via elections realize that almost everybody "has their price" as they witness the new crop of incumbent de-seaters fall "victim" to the same nonsense that allowed them to de-seat the incumbents.
The system will not accept change, only destruction. It must perpetuate itself, just as a virus must. It is past the point where it can be reformed from within. Anyone who steps into the sewer in order to effect repairs must get dirty themselves. In order to acquire enough votes to make meaningful change, you must accept moderation to your proposed changes and you must also sell your vote on other issues, thus diluting any change you propose down to insignificance.
The ultimate Catch 22.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catch-22
CD,
As I like to put it, a thoroughly corrupted system/entity/organism, as a direct result of it being thoroughly corrupted, can not be rehabilitated.
You ID implies a connection to aviation. I'm a big fan, receiving my weekly copy of "Aviation Week and Space Technology" every Monday for a weeks enjoyment on the throne. :>)
Those who do work in aviation understand that there comes a time when the basic components of the airframe can no longer be repaired and the entire plane (minus some components such as engines etc) must be junked. It has reached it's maximum hours. This is primary because over time micro fractures appear in the metal from thousands of hours of stress. To repair anything implies that you can cut out the damage and secure the repair piece to sound material around the damaged area. But what happens when there is no more "sound" material anywhere. Like a thread bare pair of jeans, what exactly are you attaching the patch to?
This is the state of our nation. No sound material anywhere. We must scrap the plane and build anew.
"Good evening, this is your captain speaking. We are not in a nose dive, we have just overpassed our destination by a few miles, and are making a rapid descent to compensate. It looks like we'll be landing a little earlier than we thought."
airoframe shock testing is also what they do to us.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAHOTTuUa9k
well, you could replace the wing spar...if you were attached to the aircraft. just sayin'
It. Will. Burn.
The only possible cure I can see within the current framework we have is a constitutional convention brought about by a debt crisis. This will ensure that no one is fighting for their share of the pie, because there won't be a pie to split up.
+1
For all those waiting to "throw the bums out"... sure, the GOP (the primary authors of this mess) will clean this up in no time... Eric Cantor for President... how about Palin... or that model of principled legislative discourse, "hell no you can't" John Boehner... or maybe Michael (get me to the strip bar on time) Steele.
Lets see... back to status quo for the heath insurance providers, less regulation for Wall Street, lower capital gains tax (now there's a real "common man" initiative), get more big money involved in the political process (courtesy of a "right leaning" Supreme Court). I can see it now... a tanning salon on every corner, no more cover charges in strip bars... wait a minute, this is starting to work for me... ouch!
It is the system that is broken... to me, the single focus (all else dilutes the effect) must be removing money from the political process. Public funding for congressional (state and federal) and presidential elections is an "single attainable goal" that would "sow the seeds" for positive change like no other single action.
"Public funding for congressional (state and federal) and presidential elections is an "single attainable goal" that would "sow the seeds" for positive change like no other single action."
I can think of one. Ending the Fed. If you control money, you control elections, "representative" governments and every aspect of society in general. In each of our day-to-day lives, which exerts greater influence? The Federal government or the corporation which controls the money supply, cost of credit, ability to "influence" policy, etc., etc.? Ending the Fed could sow the seeds for positive change; I say "could sow" because in a calculation as complex as this one, no outcome can ever be certain.
I couldn't agree more.
One of the first acts of a truly democratic government (not bought and paid for by corporations) should be to end the principle of fractional reserve central banking... hopefully, the first of many changes a true "government of the people" would make. Do you really believe any "government of the corporations" would be allowed to end the Fed... simply will not happen.
Agreed, and for other countries too. Bankers have been the unelected ruling class for way too long. Substitute bankers for industrialists, and GB Shaw prophesied this over 100 years ago in Major Barbara:
"UNDERSHAFT [with a touch of brutality]: The government of your
country! _I_ am the government of your country: I, and Lazarus.
Do you suppose that you and half a dozen amateurs like you,
sitting in a row in that foolish gabble shop, can govern
Undershaft and Lazarus? No, my friend: you will do what pays US.
You will make war when it suits us, and keep peace when it
doesn't. You will find out that trade requires certain measures
when we have decided on those measures. When I want anything to
keep my dividends up, you will discover that my want is a
national need. When other people want something to keep my
dividends down, you will call out the police and military. And in
return you shall have the support and applause of my newspapers,
and the delight of imagining that you are a great statesman.
Government of your country! Be off with you, my boy, and play
with your caucuses and leading articles and historic parties and
great leaders and burning questions and the rest of your toys.
_I_ am going back to my counting house to pay the piper and call
the tune."
With alll due respect SRV, anyone talking partisan politics at this point has not acknowledged the full scope of the problem, which goes back decades and rests equally with both parties. There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides.
Lobbyists, unions and bankers don't not care what party you belong to, only if you'll accept the bribe.
Boing, surely you jest....November hahaha. You still think the system is worth keeping? With the criminals still in control of a new bunch to bribe! OH hurahh. That aint worken!!
'If one EXCLUDES Birth-Death sleight of hand, we get -67,000'....hooray for all-is-well America!
Futures Market is only up because this means ZIRP isn't going to change any time soon...
The big boys can still borrow at 0.25% and bid the SPY upwards.
[deleted by me]
Here is the KISS view:
In the past five months US non-farm employment has gone from 130 million to 130 million, under the most extraordinarily stimulative conditions in the history of the world.
Any questions?
No - that pretty much covers it.
Excellent big picture. Sums it up nicely. Thanks, Jim.
Sort of like taking 4 Viagra and still......er......disappointing the wife/mistress/girlfriend.
yeah well the PC was on while she was 'getting ready' and er um oops
Yeah, but Dr. Bernanke'll tell ya those 4 Viagra kept your junk from dropping to the floor...
So the $500,000,000,000 price per pill is worth it!
Even if it's been standing at attention for over 4 hours, the fact that it's inverted means it sure as hell isn't going to be pleasing anyone!
LOL laughing out LOUD !! thank you hidingfromhelis
Stimulative to the speculative banksters who lost big time, who then go on to gamble big time yet again with free money with no strings attached
A+ Jim. You are the BB King of ZH comment page... You play only a few notes but they are the right notes.
I've re-posted you pov on facebook for my friends... With credit... Worth more than a frn soon enough.
Purely for those new to this forum,
You said, "...under the most extraordinarily stimulative conditions in the history of the world."
Just a reminder to everyone, "stimulus" = "debt slavery". Every dollar created is debt (not money) that the taxpayers owe to the FED (the one creating all the stimulus). Who owns the FED? The member banks. Who are the largest members? The NY Banks. Who is issuing Bonds like no tomorrow without your permission? The Treasury. Who is monetizing up to now maybe 41% of new Bonds? The FED......
Starving the Beast will entail lots and lots of pain. Start readjusting your expectations.
@Nikki
Please re-post this CookieMonster post on facebook. Sums up our plight pretty nicely. I haven't fully investigated this group, but just started looking into SwarmUSA:
http://www.swarmusa.com/vb4/
Nathan Martin at economicedge blog is behind it.
Now that I've been complimented on brevity let me go on...first a credit for clear-eyed blogging: Last year, Cassandra at the Cassandra Does Tokyo blog had an all-time winner post where she discussed what to name 'the situation'...and she called it The Tab.
We (both consumers and fat cats) partied on cheap credit for almost 30 years, beginning under Reagan and continuing under the 'pinstripe Dems'/DLC. Look at a linear chart of the Dow sometime and watch the inflection double then double again. Pretty obvious. It's probably going to suck for at least 20 years from here. And that might be optimistic, since the Feds seem to be trying to actually prevent the deleveraging that is required. By suck I mean Japan: zero net return on stocks and bonds. Now think about the unfunded pensions where 'adjusting' according to PIMCO means assuming 6% instead of 8%....ooops. Lots of financial machinery can run backwards. It's not pretty.
Much of the policy response now is counter-productive and making the situation worse. Some of that might be necessary; but given the very disappointing level of analysis and/or honesty from the Administration we seem to be operating in a dangerous cloud of unknowing. Given that lack of candor, we are safest to assume the worst about regulatory capture and whose interests events are being managed for.
Get anything you value the hell away from NY/DC. Personally I am now systematically wiping all big bank debt clean (refinanced mortgage to credit union etc.), to be followed by my checking accounts etc. I will have everything in local credit union vehicles...401(k) in money market, just getting the match...then just pay down 5% debt which is like a 5% bond investment. Better than anything the markets will yield sustainably.
You will only keep what you personally put away. Better get that household savings rate well into the double digits and be vewy vewy careful about letting any 'agents' handle your stuff.
Case in point: Our church's bond fund was stuffed full of toxic waste MBS by Wachovia subs. Bastards. That's an entire major national church denomination's 'go-to' investment fund. Only 1% Treasuries, only half even AAA. Even a good bond fund now has so much interest rate risk as to be a powderkeg waiting for a match. Can you personally buy a 5% corporate bond and hold the paper to maturity, the only sane investment today? NO. Bond funds are not bonds, never forget that. They make money on the churn and rate risk will kill you.
Happy Good Friday...and welcome to the machine....
Feels like the economy is hanging on the edge of a cliff as the blood drains out of our fingertips...
Yes, just what the fuck are those 130 million people doing,
cause I don't see any progress!
'Weather' now a major contributing factor in USA unemployment numbers, what is this Vietnam? Bunch of crap.
Remove weather and birth/death, its -67,000 jobs. OK, so in other words remove the BS and we're still shedding jobs like crazy.
It matters not that it's silly, only that it's plausible. People understand not getting out of the driveway because of the snow. Ergo, others couldn't, thus problems result.
Plausibility is the key to any lie.
And don't forget, if you are going to lie, lie BIG. Size matters here.
Okay... so the data gets revised and is a lagging indicator anyway. So what the uptake for future economic activity? What does the future employment picture look like?
The reality is that we've created a huge hole in labor utilization. And with close to 20% on the U-6 measure and a high percentage of long-term unemployed, it will take some time to dig ourselves out of this.
Perhaps there will be some private sector offset, but we will enter a period of protracted employment weakness with state and local governments. Many states in particular just don't come close to have their fiscal houses in order-- and will need to make difficult choices, even if federal bailout money is coming.
The Treserve knows this and expects unemployment to remain stubbornly high for most of this year. The transfer of payments from savers to bankers known as ZIRP will stick around longer than most think.
Dems are already preparing for large losses in November. (I look now and then at HuffPo when I want to see which way the masses are moving.)
They're not looking to pick up seats but rather pare losses. They see the economy/job situation as difficult inherited circumstances that they have the misfortune of governing in. So it's not really anyone's fault per se - they just were the ones left governing in hard times. Employment seems to be the question they can't answer. Hence their rush to retirement.
I can't find any policy ideas out there for a future that looks anything like our productive past...one girl's guess is as good as another.
My own guess looks a bit like travelling toward the kind of productive employment that China will be travelling out of. You know, a large hardworking and poorly paid peasantry. People will vote out encumbents over and over, but all the political parties - Rep Dem and 'Third' party - will look about the same in policy. Needs must when the devil drives.
But then, I always was a bit of an optimist.
You have an interesting take on the political side of things, Renfield. The biggest seachange I sense in the U.S. is the realization that BOTH major political parties are dysfunctional, corrupt, and seldom serve the interests of the constituencies they are supposed to serve.
It's hard to tell, but I do think lots of turnover is in the cards for the Nov 2010 elections-- but voters don't have a clue on third party alternatives. From there, we either enter a period of serious political reform-- or we enter a period of social unrest. Healthcare reform and Financial reform as we not know it is not truly "reform"-- it's a solution proposed to protect those that already have lots of power.
I don't think there is anything in terms of policy that will change the nature of the productive past-- but the key to getting us out of this hole we created is to develop revolutionary technologies that changes how we all live for the better. Policies committed to that may not help much, but could be money well spent, too. There are way too many things under current governement policy, though, that are grossly counterproductive. We simply spend too much on things with little or no tangible return.
I don't necessarily think we even need a third party, just better candidates in the existing parties. There are lots of good candidates running for both parties, but unless they meet the party's mold, they never make it past the primary. Look at what the neocons are trying to do to Rand Paul in Kentucky.
You describe the death of national politics, and the rise of local governance.
It is unclear how the "nation" will survive this change intact. I very much sense that our national identity is doomed. Past that, I simply cannot see further. The imagination fails utterly.
I think you have hit on something important. How to get from point A to point Z without people dying in the process. We are too diverse a country. We need a common language, culture, thought process. We need something to hold us together. There is already talk of secession in Texas and other places. That is not necessary. Even though our neighbors might be different from us, there are ways to bridge the cultural gaps if we are willing to learn. But based on honest, truthful economics, accounting, finance, and most importantly, small Federal government. I think the usual moral persuaders, the faith based organizations, are either completely asleep singing praise songs (at least from my own personal experience) or they are completely part of the system, taking in Federal $$$.
Assetman,
"So the data gets revised and is a lagging indicator anyway."
This mantra has been quoted so many times. We've had 50 years of secular bull market with recessions, but never have all the bolts been shot, as they have now. The ONLY thing left is pumping as much money (debt) into the system as they can in the (forlorn) hope that things will get back to 'normal', i.e. the tech bubble and the housing bubble. Well, I've got news for them, those times were NOT normal.
We've now entered a different phase (I personally think a secular bear market, but then I haven't taken my Citalopram for two days) - why should unemployment now not be a LEADING indicator?
DavidC
In terms of how unemployment effects wage and income growth, you certainly have a point there. At the margin, the persistence of unemployment may be creating a situation where changes in labor utilization become leading indicators by nature.
I can certainly a situation in our near future where payolls get better-- but a higher percentage of the workforce is underemployed-- or just poorly paid. If you layer on high single-digit food and energy inflation on stagnant income levels-- well, you're still in the hole. But you have higher debt levels to show for it.
This, I'm afraid, is our future. And that's the optimistic scenario.
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Edmund Phelps, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and Columbia University professor, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu about the March U.S. jobs report released today. Employment in the U.S. increased by 162,000 last month, less than anticipated, after a revised 14,000 decrease in February that was smaller than initially estimated, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. (Source: Bloomberg)
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- John Brynjolfsson, chief investment officer at Armored Wolf LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Betty Liu about today's March U.S. jobs report. Employment in the U.S. increased by 162,000 last month, less than anticipated, after a revised 14,000 decrease in February that was smaller than initially estimated, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. Brynjolfsson also discusses the outlook for the U.S. bond market, Federal Reserve monetary policy and investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)
'Remove Birth/Death nonsense and 'weather adjustment' crap, and you get -67,000 jobs'.
Leo the douche bag. what happened to 300,000+
let me guess next month right
DOUCHE BAG
Deep,
Your stupid comments don't faze me. BTW, household survey showed 416,000 full time jobs gains, the third consecutive increase.
416,000 full time jobs gain according to a 'survey'? OK Leo, then show a list of companies that are on record as hiring 100 or more people, surely they must be legion and eager to announce and prove how well theyre doing, so where are they? People can get the pap youre peddling all day long on CNBS.
'Remove 'weather factors' (pure BS) and 'birth/death monkeying, and you get -67,000 jobs and a total unemployment of 20.6%'.
Hooray?
please respect each other as you want to be respected?
+1000
Two clown economists shilling on BuyTV... big deal.
This is supposed to convince me of what exactly?
I am amazed that intelligent people still believe that "government" or "TPTB" are somehow in control of anything. They are not. They can keep the dreidel spinning but they cannot stop it from falling off the table.
I see/hear these hump economists (+ BB, TG, etc.) and there is FEAR in their eyes. This is the biggest 'tell' of them all. None of these criminals believe the story they are selling and it shows, clear as day.
Watch BuyTV for an hour... it's a masters' course in LIARS body language and rhetorical prevarication.
I wouldn't label Phelps a "clown economist".
Truthfully, Leo, the Nobel Prize ain't what it used to be as far as screaming credibility. Know what I'm saying?
Remove the $1.6 Trillion deficit (more than 10% of GDP) and what do you have?
Is this sustainable? Leo?
What were expectations for private sector jobs?
For non-farm employment, 185K or thereabouts.
There can never be a sustainable increase in jobs in this country until we begin to manufacture things that people will buy.
What is it, 2 days after the official end of QE, and the ten year is already at 4% ... just what the housing sector needs. When does QE2 get started ?
Seems all BS ends at the bond traders doors, they dont monkey around.
When does QE2 start? Only after the next 'unforeseeable collapse', of course that means when the banksters feel theyre getting pinched on their free money gambling returns.
Yep; agreed. If the Fed were to launch the next QE now, pressure on yields would only get more intense as it would only stir noise among the bond vigilantes, and legitimate fear the U.S. is moving quickly down the path to sovereign debt crisis rears its ugly head.
I think the more relevant question is to what extent will the Fed quietly monetize freshly issued Treasury debt behind the scenes. I don't think they will be able to expand their balance sheet without somebody knowing about it for very long.
In the long run, I think the Fed may be better off allowing a massive safety trade develop to help funnel demand to where it is needed the most. And it is sorely needed in the Treasury auctions. The banksters, though, need to get positioned on the right side of the trade before it occurs.
Agreed, the Fed is in a trap when it comes to QE - damned if they do, damned if they don't.
My guess is they go down the road Argentina during their last crisis - first force the banks to buy govt bonds, next force the citizens to buy govt bonds.
if QE2 is announced with similar style to march 18 2009...i'm putting all my eggs in the 'short-the-Treasury' basket.
185K was the non-farm payroll but does that include the federal workers?
Yeah, it would. That would include the census people...
They try to extrapolate consumer spending from it, so federal employees, including temporary census takers, theoretically would increase consumer spending - hence better economy, hence buy the USD.
This should therefore have led to SELLING the USD, since spending would be weaker since employment even including the census bulge is less than what economists generally counted on...hence a weaker economy.
I think that's how it works. Open to correction if wrong...
Of course one needs to consider where the money is coming from to pay these census workers.
Higher taxes? => less consumer spending or, at a minimum, a complete offset to the increased spending by census workers.
Printed dollars? => higher spending but weaker dollar.
Remember that the treasury auctions next week mean dollar pumping.
Hey Silver
No worries - to me fiat is *only* for trading. :-)
I do the forex trading thing only to generate enough paper to exchange for real goods: food, bullion, clothes, etc. It generates a few hundred a day, a small income for us to live on and save with.
We have near ZERO in fiat 'wealth', and looking to keep it that way. A bit in the mattress in case we need to exchange some fast. Bank account only with enough in it to keep it open and pay the necessary fees (for trading withdrawal and my husband's paycheque). Trading account is small, just to manage a few little trades. I'm definitely not one of your fiat high-flyers, but we are at least not as poor as we were when we were following the rest of the crowd.
Hoping one day to be completely off-grid, but aren't in a position of wealth enough to do that. Yet.
Hope that clarifies how I may have sounded there...! No, I don't mistake more and more paper for economic prosperity...
I think we agree. Both of us feel that the NFP figures should result in weaker USD.
Not sure if there's any connection but the auctions generally bring a dollar rally. The FED mtg next week could be another attempt to spook the markets as gold is showing signs of a major breakout.
You mean to tell me that taking a census is not a profitable venture? We should have outsourced it!
Ding dong, Avon calling.
_________________________________________________
How many people were living or staying in this house, apartment, or mobile home on April 1, 2010, and what are their favorite colors?
Were there any additional people staying here April 1, 2010 that you did not include in Question 1, and have you thought about what you are going to buy them for the holiday?
Is this house, apartment, or mobile home: owned with mortgage, owned without mortgage, rented, occupied without rent, and can the shower heads accomodate a soap-on-a-rope?
What is your telephone number, and do you know where your spouse's checkbook is kept?
Please provide information for each person living here. Start with a person here who owns or rents this house, apartment, or mobile home. If the owner or renter lives somewhere else, start with any adult living here. This will be Person 1. What is Person 1's name, and does he or she have pierced ears?
What is Person 1's sex, and does he or she suffer from acne?
What is Person 1's age, Date of Birth, and scent preference?
Is Person 1 of Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin? If so, does he or she wax?
What is Person 1's race? It is important to determine what his or her tone is.
Does Person 1 sometimes live or stay somewhere else in my territory?Andrea Jung (Avon CEO) would've liked that - front page of yesterday's WSJ shows her direct compensation for 2009 was down 74%.
Bloomberg's take:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aehAkiag49Hc&pos=1
I wonder why they don't aggregate numbers when there are downward revisions
... And, in a related development, (according to Bloomberg) -- Effective April 5, pilots will be able to keep their 1st class medical while on Prozac. Good thing, and just in the nick of time before the next market crash. I would guess that businesses in general are probably starting to run very short of non-depressed employees by now.
Comments from ATT, CAT, PRU, and many others last week after peeking at the Deathcare bill- 'Holy crap this is gonna cost us HUGE'!
Guess thats 'bullish', and massive hiring will result.
...of tax attorneys...
This market is between a rock and a gard place. The long bond is on the verge of collapse, either from the bullshit "growth" story, or because of systemic, supply related reasons. The catastrophe unfolding in the bond markets will collapse equity markets globally and usher in massive social dislocation and economic disaster. Thanks Ben. Everything will deflate against wheat.
I am the average Jose and I come here to read all this bearish commentary to have a few laughs. The world is ending soon, buy gold, the US will collapse soon, etc. One or two articles and the commentaries are enough. See you at 14,000. How can so many people who believe they are so smart and clever be so wrong?
I check back here every so often to make reinforce my bullish views. As long as the great majority here are bearish I know my bullish views are correct.
When is the correction?
Armando Javier must be spanish for Steve Liesman.
Good luck with that. Membership in the "flat earth society" must appear quite compelling.
You will die hopelessly disillusioned, or you will awaken hopelessly demoralized.
What do you think the P/E for the S&P500 should be?
Hey Silver and Mikla
Sign on the Zero Hedge zoo gate:
"Please do not feed the trolls."
;-)
On the plus side, I FINALLY found a legitimate use for my Junk flag! And a non-accidental one at that...o the rush, the power.
You can unjunk if you accidentally junk. Just press it again and it goes away. Experiment on this post, if you like.
Hey! It works!
Alas, it appears to be still only one vote per customer, tho, no matter how deserving the candidate!
- well, some junk is good,, like, "MsCreant has got the junk in them trunks", or maybe, "you smoking the junk, or the bunk", etc., etc.
Our friend here has been with ZH for 3 days and 15 hours as of this post. This is the down side of ZH stopping anons from posting. They now register and post. This is why it's even more important for all of us to click on an ID and look at that person's posting history.
There are more than just trolls among us. There are agent provocateurs and other muckrakers here to disrupt and destroy. I don't say this to turn each of us on each other, only to point out that sometimes you are arguing with a ghost, someone who has 3, 4. even 10 registered ID's here on ZH, all with different e-mails address so ZH doesn't know it's the same person. Modern infiltration techniques. Recognize this reality and protect yourself.
And don't feed the operatives.
The disinformation campaign has no shortage of volunteers. People will spread lies and drivel and disrupt communities simply to know that they are part of the status quo.
Noise and static. You don't have to kill the messenger. Noise and static and the message is never delivered.
ZH, =home, truth, challenges , growht. Every day i visit here knowing folks here may be better educated and smarter, yet i feel accepted with my inane comments. Thank you all. 1mealperday on utube. Feel free to check.
I would willingly expose myself, but the human side of me says no because of unethical people. Point is , some of us are truly sincere, if a bit strange
There are agent provocateurs and other muckrakers here to disrupt and destroy. I don't say this to turn each of us on each other, only to point out that sometimes you are arguing with a ghost, someone who has 3, 4. even 10 registered ID's here on ZH, all with different e-mails address so ZH doesn't know it's the same person.
Not to place myself under suspicion, CD, but if "ZH doesn't know it's the same person," how do you?
I agree that formal "agent provocateurs" are likely "among us," but it's important to keep in mind what you don't/can't know--who they actually are.
You could be one--the finger-pointer guardian/snitch role is well-worn in movies and other dramas. Could be anybody. ZH itself could be a CIA operation.
Hope you see what I mean.
I do see what you mean.
Many posters have distinct writing styles and word usage, including dropped (or accented) punctuation and capitalization. When I see the same style and particularly the same word usage, especially unique words, I become suspicious. By clicking on the ID you can pull up where/what that person has posted and you can discover trends and themes. Sometimes I will find two, three or more avatars who are visiting the same thread at the same time and disrupting but not anywhere else. Not sure if others can do the same but as a contributor I can also view this information down to page views, not just thread views by an avatar. There are times when it's simply obvious.
Besides, it's clear that ZH is a hot spot by its very nature and would be on the radar of the disinformation teams. Infiltration and disruption has long been the staple of control and dismemberment by the powers that be and it would be naive and stupid to assume it's not being done now. There are actually a number of books out there which describe the techniques used by these operatives. One operative often will post under many names and styles. And they post under many blogs. Some keep notes of where they have posted under what alias and who is their current target. They even keep notes describing the "style" or "attitude" they assume with each avatar in order to be consistent.
And yes, you and I could also be operatives. And it doesn't matter one bit because the value of ZH is determined by the reader, not the poster. My posting history is very clear and transparent. Many posters on ZH who are speaking clearly and consistently would be considered leaders on this blog and thus targets for disruption. It's an old MO that can be quite effective even when people are aware that it happens. Think back to how the FBI and CIA infiltrated the labor movements, the black power movement and many other social movements of the 60's and 70's. Again, there are some very good books on the subject.
I'm well aware of the importance of ZH and the sensitivity of its comments component. I served a role similar to that you fill in keeping out material and posters that would surely discredit the entire community, e.g., racist rants and "militia threats." And that kind of "control" still makes sense to me.
As you say, however, there is no way for us to confirm just how many personnas a given poster may have assumed. The techniques and indicators you note are in no way reliable--not only is this obvious on its face, but as specific proof you went after me recently as an infiltrator/troll when I posted after a couple month absence.
I see too much of this going on. There was a thread where a new guy posted a legal link a couple days ago and the wolves pounced on him mercilessly. It was not justified--it was like brownshirts with bats. Likewise for the gutter-inspired treatment of Leo K around here.
CD, these are all things you played a prominant role in. Hey, CD's a fuckin' guru--if it's cool with him, it's gotta be okay.
It's not okay, CD. I understand the stakes here. I understand that the gov has likely infiltrated here. I actually assume it to be the case. Unfortunately, given their MO of cultivating suspicion, disruption and fragmentation in a community, I really do wonder how many accounts you have.
But I remind myself to remain mindful of the things I cannot know.
But somebody's "agenda" is none of your business as far as I can see. I see no legitimate need for an agenda police here.
Civility and tolerance for all views (within reason) are surely the best controls. Just like out there in the world of real time and space.
Bob,
I serve no role here on ZH other than as a contributor and as a poster of comments. I consistently try to see the big picture. I have no roles, self appointed or otherwise.
This is now the second time you have questioned my veracity. Why? I don't see you doing it to others? Why are you introducing doubt? Why do you reappear after a long absence and go after one of the bigger persons in the room? Very interesting what you're doing Bob.
I don't beat any drums on ZH other than my personal opinions. I don't divide and conquer, I don't play games, I simply post thoughtful commentary. Why are you introducing this shit? ZH was founded based upon anonymity precisely because they were worried about black ops and disruptor's and ad hominem attacks. So if I mention it as obvious that it's going on, I'm a trouble maker? That's bullshit Bob and you're playing games. Just because I can't "prove" it's going on doesn't mean it's not.
I jumped you the last time because you did the very same thing, introducing doubt about me which was off topic and uncalled for. I'm not the only one on ZH who has talked about trolls, infiltrators and agent provocateurs. Tyler and Marla have done so a number of times. Go read their disclaimer and other polices. Many others have in the past and many will in the future.
As far as your "agenda police", I was not talking about agendas. I was talking about disruptor's using multiple ID's, which is a common MO. The person was obviously stirring up shit Bob. You are creating straw men and distractions yourself by talking about me being a guru and how "I played a predominate role in" this stuff. What stuff Bob? What game are you playing Bob? I have never seen anyone here say I was a guru.
Are you jealous Bob? You said I replaced you while you were gone. I can pull up that post if people would like to see it. Go ahead and attack me Bob. I'm done responding. People will clearly see what you're doing. This is a clear attempt to discredit me. It's obvious and directly out of the playbook. A whisper campaign, mud slinging, finger pointing. It's the last time I take your bait.
Your preoccupation with matters of psychology and putative self-examination are well-advised, CD. Unfortunately, you are not as tightly wrapped as you might appear.
I would suggest spending some time with a professional in real time to genuinely address it, because I have no more time or interest in doing it with you than you have with me. And that's not a rhetorical pose, but a fact.
"Discrediting" you is something that, upon considered examination over time, you have done for yourself.
Forget the psychobabble and cloak and dagger bullshit, CD, and work on some good old reality.
Thank you for your feedback.
I am slightly perturbed by this conversation. Back when Tyler Durden's anonymity was in question by various other media (/propoganda) sources, were we not fevereshly arguing that the idenetity of the person is not important when the content the person presents has merit? What has changed for the commenters?
Let's leave the ego out of this and continue treating each post by its content and not by its author.
It is my opinion that this site was started with some of the most egoless intentions, so let us not spoil it with our egos.
what makes you think these people are wrong? because the stock market is rallying? the mkt was at it's highs as we entered the subprime crisis and the Great Recession. Here's a clue- the stock mkt doesn't discount shit. It's an inefficient casino full of degenerate gamblers.
Bingo!
It's not a lagging or leading indicator. It's a gambling house where the majority of the participants understand the game is rigged but operate under the delusion (sometimes quite successfully depending how close they are to the manipulators) they can manipulate, steal, lie or simply hook onto the coat tails of the manipulators (sanitized through mutual funds, annuities, investment pools, investment professionals other structured products etc) in order to "profit" from their play.
A honest player will admit this. Most will present excuses why this is not so or why they should participate, which usually involves helping widows, orphans and children because of their participation. There is not a day that passes where I do not question why I'm still in this field. It's becoming more and more difficult to justify and rationalize my participation. I work in the sewer yet I convince myself my hands are clean(er).
CD I use a 16 inch long mud pan carried in the left hand and a 18 inch mudknife used in the right. As i apply the mud to the ceiling and pay attention to my work my feet are moving me forward on a 6 inch planck 4 ft of the ground. Sometimes higher. Its hot mud which only stays plyable for 90 minutes. Then it becomes a rock suddenly. So you really got to work fast, efficient and leave no mess. After 30 years it all comes easily and smoothly allowing me to feel satisfaction and pride in what i have done. During the process a high degree of awareness and focus of attention is required.
Perhaps that why the money was always the secondary, unwanted part of the business. I would rather work for love. LOL True
Was married 10 years. Wife worked at the state treasury as a secretary but quit that, to work with me and learn my trade. said for the first time she felt true work satisfaction after i taught her to do a brocade. Having been a title officer and other office type positions she found no satisfaction from the work.
Many of the trades feel empowered by their work , not working on the other hand destroys many in their selfesteem. After that , bad things happen
with awareness comes love. or so i understand
merehuman,
I worked in construction for nearly 20 years so I understand what you mean. It's not that I hate my job, I hate what this industry has become and what it represents. If you were building homes that were fire traps and on a daily basis you read of people severely hurt of killed in one of the homes you built with others, would you not question what's going on and what your part in it is? Even if you don't cause the fire and your work is done well, you're still part of the problem.
It's not what I do that is bothersome, it's what my industry is doing to others and my association with them by proximity. I am an honest man working in a corrupt business. So what does that make me?
I worked for a fella that owned 150 houses . I was part of a 10 man crew. In one week we took a piece of shit and made it look high end. I quit and turned him in for creating a dangerous sitiuation . His electrician made too many mistakes and as a drywall guy i cover things up and they expected that i would. NO. It cost me a little money, it could have cost me much more had i stayed.
So what do you do if every job you can take is a danger to society? I'm not talking about the occasional problem. I'm talking about every time.
in case you should seek a response............Driving truh lincoln city or with the wife in the pickup. Good mood, nice day and then she started yet another inane argument over nothing. I pulled the truck over, got out and related to her the house , business , truck etc.. all yours honey bye. And walked away. It left me with the clothes on my back, but didnt matter. I have started over many times before. I refuse to live with lies and will usually remove myself from inharmonious conditions.
She kept circling the block and we consented to try again! She died in 2000.
I spent ten years in a disfunctional relationship because of a need to have family. I no longer require family or other peoples love or consent. I am my own love and consent. Tho i appreciate the human form i begin to hope for an upgraded vehicle. LOL regards
ADP had a negative number of 23,000 I believe . So a 185K difference between ADP and the BLS?
I think last time we saw this was in Nov when the BLS reported -11K and ADP was out with -179k.
But, it is an election year so I suspect they will slowly ramp these numbers into October.
Stock market should be close to 2007 highs by the election. I still can't go long though. I want to . But I have a unshakable feeling that a TBTF is going to pull a mid-day bankruptcy with no warning
i looked at the numbers and the changes. Where do they show the child labor increases?
They floated +350k and heard howls from the balcony... so they pulled it in a little, so the masses would swallow the LIE more easily.
If they thought they could get away with a big positive number, they would try it. The truth is that they cannot get away with it so they try to hedge and post "small" LIES instead of "big" LIES.
They are running out of time (and ammunition). The US and the $USD are DONE. If they can keep the charade going through the Nov. election it will be a miracle. We can/should expect some 'external' (read: planned) event upon which the double-dip depression can be blamed...
The 'optics problem' as the political pros would say is that the Administration needs to be putting the words 'jobs' and 'millions' in the same sentence within, hmm, six months. So low six figures (puffed up out of insignificant noise in the data) won't cut it.
What to do, what to do...all I know is it will be done. How credibly, 'tis the question.
[How credibly, 'tis the question]
Two questions really.
1) How well can they lie under pressure?
2) How ready are the people to be lied to?
Success in November will hinge on how those balance out. Do not put it past people to be ready to believe anything that gives them immediate comfort. The lies might not be difficult at all, then.
BTW, household survey showed 416,000 full time jobs gains, the third consecutive increase.
Leo wheres this survey that shows 416,000 new full time jobs?
leo, I call bullshit, and predict that you get taken to the cleaners, on chinese solar stocks, just 1 mans humble opinion. my advice, pull out, and take a time out, if they shoot up, you can jump right back in, but if they tank, you will be okay. the only winning move, is not to play the game
But wait. The futures are up. Everything must be good.
Where is "General Jim" Sinclair today?
"The jobless recovery is a world class oxymoron"
"The downward spiral of the Formula continues to squeeze off
recovery."
"The US dollar is no safe haven from anything."
Note how the dollar rocketed immediately after the McJobs report.
It is really amazing how "General Jim" continues to take hits again
and again.
And I'm sure we will get an earful from the GATA boys about the
phoney jobs data, the "orchestrated take down" in gold Thursday night,
and the S & P 500 futures skying to new 52-wk. highs.
LOL....
The hubris and the chest thumping at the Fed must be off the charts.
Knowing that the greatest financial calamity of all time was staved
off and averted, and stocks embarked on a world record run, with NO
INFLATIONARY IMPACT WHATSOEVER.
Bernanke now has the playbook, I doubt we'll ever see any financial
accidents which are not immediately met with aggressive Fed balance
sheet ballooning.
Robo, baby
I appreciate the effort, but in regard to your first posting of a naked man - well, to be honest I had come to expect more of you. Much, much more.
Sticking the Beard next to the old naked boy is just NOT attractive, has put me off my brekkie, and prolly ensured my sound and chaste sleeps all thru the night for the rest of the weekend. Unless I get bad dreams from seeing that image of Bermonkey getting his bath at his holiday home in the 9th circle of hell.
It just...brings together a conjunction I'd rather not have seen. I feel...all soiled now.
In my Humble opinion, now that you've ventured into nudie boy territory, you owe us females some serious reparation, some eye-candy with REAL sugar...enough of this nassssty aspartame stuff. Ew.
Robot Trader, this jobless recoveryless recovery truely is a thing 'o marvel!!
The old man in the frozen lake must have a serious case of shrinkage.
nice puff piece here on Goldman.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_15/b4173030234603.htm
zombies everywhere.
John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics says in todays commentary that he believes the B/D model is overstating jobs by 250,000 per month! He calculates the real unemployment rate for March to be 21.7%.
That would correlate with the unemployment data released by Gallup yesterday - http://www.gallup.com/poll/127091/Underemployment-Rises-March.aspx
The Center for Working Class Studies at YSU, puts the current real unemployment rate at 28.35%, http://cwcs.ysu.edu/resources/cwcs-projects/defacto
Long Term unemployment spiked 7%, chart here - http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pCDyiFUv9XU/S7YB5yAdItI/AAAAAAAAJFU/Pj4vdtpeGQ...
Government spending as a percent of gdp:
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1903_2010&view...
Does anybody make anything anymore?
Federal deficit as a percent of GDP:
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_deficit_chart.html
Who elect's these idiots to office? Nov. 2010 lets "drip" on them.
Don't
Re-elect
Incumbent
Politician
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2iiirr5KI8
Phil Hare doesn't care about the ConstitutionTo non-anan... In reply to your comment, this is a copy of an earlier post I made on this thread.
Respectfully,
SRV - ES339
For all those waiting to "throw the bums out"... sure, the GOP (the primary authors of this mess) will clean this up in no time... Eric Cantor for President... how about Palin... or that model of principled legislative discourse, "hell no you can't" John Boehner... or maybe Michael (get me to the strip bar on time) Steele.
Lets see... back to status quo for the heath insurance providers, less regulation for Wall Street, lower capital gains tax (now there's a real "common man" initiative), get more big money involved in the political process (courtesy of a "right leaning" Supreme Court). I can see it now... a tanning salon on every corner, no more cover charges in strip bars... wait a minute, this is starting to work for me... ouch!
It is the system that is broken... to me, the single focus (all else dilutes the effect) must be removing money from the political process. Public funding for congressional (state and federal) and presidential elections is an "single attainable goal" that would "sow the seeds" for positive change like no other single action.
To SRV
I've been saying this to anyone who will listen. Also, eliminate incumbentcy (is that even a word...) "One and Done" will go a long way towards getting representatives elected who are only interested in representing us, instead of whoring themselves for $$$ and votes for their re-election campaign.
"the GOP (the primary authors of this mess)..."
There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides. To admit otherwise is to be in denial.
Lobbyists, unions and bankers don't not care what party you belong to, only if you'll accept the bribe.
Another segment of unemployed or under emloyed that is not counted in the "statistics" is the early retirees like myself. I started taking SS at 63 because my business is terminally ill. As a commercial realtor for 37 years, I have been through 5 recessions, this being the worst, and I choose not to fight the battle anymore. Because of losses in the stock market and earning little or nothing on "secure" investments, at 63 years of age, I won't be spending what I have left on cruises and a second vacation home. I am worried about out living my money and since stock market investing has now become gambling on how long the government can keep the balloon afloat, I am more concerned about outliving my money. I am sure there are millions of my peers who are in the same boat. We are not counted in the unemployment statistics because some of us as self-employed can't get unemployment, can't find work and chose to "retire" early but really we are taking SS as a substitute for unemployment payments. I am sure the real U6 number is easily over 20%