This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
March Non Farm Payrolls: +162K, Below Consensus, Unemployment Rate 9.7%, Ex-Census, Weather and Birth-Death NFP Change Is -67K
Summary of Data:
From Stone-McCarthy:
At first blush, about one quarter of the increase in March payrolls appears to be related to the hiring of census workers and another half of the gain seems to be a payback from the weather-related distortions of February. The February payroll decline of 36,000 was revised to a loss of 14,000 while the 26,000 decrease in January payrolls reported a month ago was revised to a gain of 14,000. Thus, there was a cumulative 62,000 net upward revision to January and February payrolls.
Census additions were 48,000 and the weather impacts is expected to be about 100,000, thus the net organic add was just barely positive. Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000.
The U-6 rate increased by 10 bps, to 16.9%.
Average hourly earning decreased by 0.1% to $22.47 even as the average weekly hours increased by six minutes to 34 hours.
The question on everyone's mind: is this statistic improvement in the data sufficient for the Fed to reconsider ZIRP.
The answer is a resounding no. Although keep an eye on the 10 Year. We may just break 4% today.
Below is the Statement of Keith Hall, Commissioner of the BLS
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. Job gains continued in temporary help services and in health care, while job losses occurred in financial activities and in information. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.
Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 in March. Since last September, employment in this industry has grown by 313,000, or 18 percent.
Health care added 27,000 jobs in March, compared with an average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Mining employment rose by 8,000 in March. This industry has added 31,000 jobs since last October.
Federal government employment rose over the month, reflecting ramped-up hiring for Census 2010. In March, the Census Bureau brought on 48,000 temporary workers. Employment in state and local governments was essentially unchanged.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March. Over the last 3 months, manufacturing has added 45,000 jobs, with most of the gains in durable goods industries.
Construction employment held steady in March. This industry had shed an average of 72,000 jobs per month in the prior 12 months.
Employment continued to decline in financial activities (-21,000) and in information (-12,000) in March. Other major
industries showed little change in employment.
Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector declined by 2 cents in March to $22.47. Over the past 12
months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. From February 2009 to February 2010, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose by 2.2 percent.
Turning to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in March. Over the month, jobless rates for the major worker groups showed little or no change.
Of the 15.0 million persons unemployed in March, 6.5 million had been jobless for 27 weeks or more, an increase of 414,000 over the month. These long-term unemployed made up 44.1 percent of all unemployed persons, a record high.
The employment-population ratio was 58.6 percent in March. This measure has been trending up since its recent low of 58.2 percent in December. Among the employed, the number of individuals working part time who preferred full-time work increased in March to 9.1 million.
In summary, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent.
»
- 26257 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Pinefox
Your story is sad, and growing more and more typical. Not just in the US, but throughout the 'Western' world.
Even among those who are employed, it is a shrinking group whose wages actually cover any of the following:
1) house;
2) education for kids;
3) retirement,
let alone ALL of them. In a real middle class, a single wage covers all of those items.
I do not believe we have enough of a middle class anymore, to count as having one.
I put more faith in countries such as China and India purely because with all their problems, seem to be attempting to build a middle class. On this I believe rises or falls a country's prosperity.
PS: You were in CRE...I don't know how it is there, but for residential property, if I were buying a house, I would not trust a realtor who had not been in the business long enough to have seen a REAL recession in their career. 2001 doesn't count. When we do eventually buy, I'll be hunting down retired guys like you who know the field, for agent and appraiser, not the new crop of order-takers and door-openers.
renfield, you are one of my favorite commenters, spunky, smart, and funny, good combo
Thank you, Delacroix - it is very encouraging to be told that on a thread as thought-provoking as this one.
You and several of the other Zero Hedge regulars have been well educating me.
59 and retiring due to common sense. I see from here on i will earn more in my garden than the business.
Hey, what about Farm Payrolls?
My analysis here - didn't even bother with the weather adjustmen
162,000 jobs gained
-48,000 temporary census
-81,000 "hocus pocus" birth death model jobs
=
+33,000 jobs
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/04/march-2010-jobs-data-somewhat.html
"John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics says in todays
commentary that he believes the B/D model is overstating jobs by 250,000
per month! He calculates the real unemployment rate for March
to be 21.7%."
............................
No doubt, that means the retail stocks are truly going to go ballistic on Monday..
LOL...
wouldn't doubt it, birth death has to do with folks who lose there jobs start there own business, well you gotta have money and someone too sell to, in most times you do get the guy who will give it a go, today, they are tapped out financially and no buyers, i'd say he's right, it's just a % they mumbo jumbo with
I think the prospect of saving or attempting to help my future self has lost enough value to make spending on my present self much more appealing.
By that I mean I am blowing all my money on women and booze.
Cheers,
The great Somerset Maugham, in I believe "Summing Up", wrote that he had never met a man who boozed and whored his life away who had any regrets, but that he had met plenty of men who had lived the straight and narrow, passed on all temptation, and in the end had a sadness that made the final exit a welcome relief from the pain.
Ah, Cronshaw.
Remove the bullcrap and use the NSA and you see the truth. This was more bullcrap and less reality. The Fed is meeting on money as you so adeptly captured. There is a squeeze on Treasuries about to happen and the Fed and this Treasury are woefully mentally underequipped to deal with it.
Once we see a 4.50% on the 10 year this report becomes a distant memory. And the great US Sovereign Debt panic begins.
after reading all these posts felt compelled to say something, lol
bob, i'm with ya
i really don't see sheeple, most have a dominant for of input, either visual, auditory or kinesthetic, some a mish mash, when u take you're input type and put it in an environment, the constant influence has an emotional effect, thus, it's hard to think doom when the green shoots have sprouted into buds ready too bloom, many talk it up, business is better, things to do etc., feel safer spending a few bucks, 401k not as bad, you feel better, the recency effect, the most recent things is the most emotional, the reason why time heals all wounds, good things eventually happen
for others significant emotional events, ie, painful emotions are much more memorable, i can list all my horrible trades, the winners but a distant memory
fwiw, i'm more on the fence with things, as an overal optimist and believe progress is pretty much humanities story line, there are always blips in the road, what appals me though are two main things
a. the degradation of an upward path for the middle class
b. believing that paying for a college education means something, i'll take attitude and skills any day over a sheepskin....saddling young people with crazy debt is crazy
c. acknowledgement of capital flows, okay big industry retools every 30 years, in the 70's it went south for cheap labor and easier to build new plants than upgrade old ones, there were employable people and well developed transportation............than when it was time too retool again, down to mexico or too asia...................the tech sector went right from america oversea's.........................this is like basic survival 101............
now, positives and negatives came from this, yet, it seems the good part of it was given up so easily without a real fight, and now we seem to be on a path of a barbell social structure
my big wish is that young kids would understand how the system is set up..........physical harm someone, or threaten someones physical being and your in the slammer........................white collar crime just way out of control and out of hand............there is no disinsentive for crossing the line, few are caught, hardly any punished, and no one is crossing the line to the extent of skilling or the bald guy, forgot his name, so you have zero fear of punishment, just zero
thus, as they say, a body in motion will stay in motion until........................
or it could all be my years are making me that old crotchity guy who see's more of the bad than the good, that's always possible
enjoy the weekend all
Jesus Christ they want people to have a happy Easter weekend don't they? I don't think I've seen so many f'g rosy economic articles/headlines in the MSM on one day in my life.
Hippity hoppity SPLAT
that's funny. Exactly how I feel about the games being played by the big boys.
-dup
.
Clearly, there's only one answer.
http://www.silohome.com/
guys and gals who use twitter. Start following all your congressman. Many will follow u back. Then continually pelt them with tweets. Link them to ZH or good analysis. Tell them they will be voted out unless the reinstate glass steagel. We want our country back. Tell them to stop the Bullshit. Invite them to lead rally's, parades against the machine. Let them know we will follow them if they fight for "the right thing" tell them we want our country back, fire Geithner, bernanke, etc. tell them we want governing, not rioting. The only way to change the direction is to get our leaders to do what we want. We don;t need money, we need a unified front, hitting them from all angles.
... and if you're not careful, get yourself put on a list. Be sure your representative is a "friendly," and remember all social networks are being monitored these days in the good ole USA.
..And so they all lived happily ever after.
THE END
OT: I'm here in DC, listening this morn to the Ric Edelman show on WMAL. Financial advice. Guy calls in, says he and the wife are in their mid-80s. She's been riding his arse, insisting that he pull their money out of the bank because she's convinced Obama is going to take it. Guy wants the wife, who is listening, to hear Edelman say she needn't worry. Edelman say don't worry, that would be illegal blah blah blah, Obama doesn't want your money blah blah blah...
Either Americans are starting to get it, or the lady is a ZH'er.
Some heavy shit in this thread.
How many analogies for this shitmobile can we make? All the analogies or information doesn't work if the person you are trying to communicate with doesn't care. The easiest analogy to use came to me from the Creature From Jekyll Island: that the fed is a cartel. That gets people interested because its very hard to argue against (since its true and all). But rarely can can you actually change a person's mind in an argument. To change your mind seems like defeat. Especially for the smart ones.
Keeps asking questions and maybe they will learn.
Good linux hosting option package offered by ucvhost which not only provides the best in terms of hosting packages but also believes in truly being there for the customer, 24x7. windows vps Moreover , they offer unlimited bandwidth as well as nearly 1GB storage along with database maintenance, email facility along with storage, availability of sub domain and many other important features for a very low price. cheap hosting
Your composing manner is admirable and the way you managed the subject with grace is exemplary.Since i am intrigued, I presume you are an master on this matter xbox 360 slim
I found lots of interesting information here. The post was professionally written and I feel like the author has extensive knowledge in the subject. Keep it that way
coach degreeThis is very good blog and I also show you some imformation through this .
Tacoma SEO http://www.ilocalonline.com
this is very good blog . Click here for more information Alaska Fishing Lodge
this is very good blog . Click here for more information Dallas Garage Doors