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Non Farm Payrolls Come At -226K After Census (411K), Temporary (31K), And Birth-Death Adjustment (215K)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for that 700,000 expectation. At 431k, less 411k census, and 31k from temporary help services, it sure doesn't look good even without the 215k birth-death adjustment which only conspiracy theorists look at according to Mr. Liesman. 431k minus 411k minus 31k minus 215k = -226k. Nuf said. In other news, those unemployed longer than 27 weeks hits a new record at 46%. Nothing conspiratorial about that number.

From the report:

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 431,000 in May, reflecting  the addition of 411,000 temporary workers for Census 2010. Total private employment showed little change over the month (+41,000), following increases in March and April. In May, manufacturing, temporary help services, and mining added jobs, while employment in con-
struction declined. (See table B-1.)

Manufacturing employment increased by 29,000 over the month. Factory employment has risen by 126,000 over the past 5 months. Within manufacturing, both fabricated metals and machinery added jobs in May.

Temporary help services added 31,000 jobs over the month; employment in the industry has risen by 362,000 since September 2009.

Employment in mining continued to increase in May, with a gain of 10,000. Support activities for mining accounted for 8,000 of the over-the-month increase. Since October 2009, mining employment has expanded by 50,000.

In May, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees increased by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours over the month. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

 

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Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:49 | 394622 geoffb
geoffb's picture

The birth/death model is admittedly (by the BLS) bad at economic turning points. The numbers may vaguely approximate reality in good times, but in times like these the are simply figments of the imagination.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:33 | 395030 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

We'll stop subtracting the B/D number straight-up when the BLS opens the black box and tells us how the B/D is calculated and revised.

Deal?

Until then, we will treat nonsense as nonsense and simply subtract the nonsense.

 

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:32 | 394421 mwrobe1
mwrobe1's picture

Whoa...wonder if 1.20 on the EUR/USD holds today.  Dow futes down 198 at this point.  Wonder if they can sticksave this $hit.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:32 | 394422 Kataphraktos
Kataphraktos's picture

So Goldman and Obama spent the week pumping the planet about the upcoming NFP, and we get this disaster.

Just when you think Goldman's stamen couldn't get any deeper into Obama & Co.'s pistil...

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:35 | 394436 amarshall
amarshall's picture

trying to stick save it now

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:37 | 394439 Zina
Zina's picture

Forget the Birth/Death "jobs". Those jobs don't exist.

Never forget this:

http://www.wbtv.com/global/story.asp?s=11938886

Feb 05, 2010 - "The report also included an annual revision to the estimates of total payrolls, which showed there were 930,000 fewer jobs last March than previously estimated."

Do you remember? In February, they "discovered" that 930,000 jobs "created" by the Birth/Death model simply didn't exist...

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:53 | 394449 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Hilda solis says over 5 months it's good. Obama to lecture us on how bad bush was in about 2 min or whenever he feels like showing up. Is arrogant Obama ever on time?

Obama will tell the unwashed about bush and how we need financial reform.

When Obama wants your opinion he'll give it to you.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:53 | 394451 trav7777
trav7777's picture

A total debacle.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:55 | 394456 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

LEO BUY THE DIPS!! HURRY.. OR YOU'LL BE PRICED OUT.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 09:57 | 394460 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

All right, Leo, it's time to man up. You can't run your mouth all week about the "monster" jobs number coming our way and then disappear when the real turd sandwich appears in the NFP numbers. You're in danger of becoming the new Harry Wanger (before Harry became "Harry the White").

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:04 | 394483 MyFriendMises
MyFriendMises's picture

He is probably sitting at home hoping a little rally can form so he can post that he was right and he bought the dips. 

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:31 | 394561 doggings
doggings's picture

Harry is a very different creature than Leo, he has the ability to process new data and learn from it, altering his previous conclusions, rather than endlessly repeating

"Solars are a very good investment, a very good investment.."

ala Rainman.

How do I get my signature to show I'd like it to say

Im bullish on the US and the whole world..

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:17 | 394514 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

Today's unemployment report, Baby Ruth or something else?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lOGnKUHlGA

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:18 | 394516 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

 .... there's 411k jobs going to be lost in the next few months .....

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:22 | 394531 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Some guy named Leo just knocked on my door demanding I fill out a census form. He seems kinda pissed. What should I do?

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:30 | 394560 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Did I read the report right?...not in labor force increased by ~1 million? 1 million people gone from the labor force? holy hairball batman!

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:37 | 394575 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I am pissed, and will come back tonight to "Man Up" and look deeper into this jobs report.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 10:42 | 394593 MyFriendMises
MyFriendMises's picture

Leo you just moved up a few notches in my book for at least admitting the possibility that you might have been wrong.  I know it is a big step for you.  You can probably join Harry at the next Bulls Anonymous meeting.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:02 | 394682 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Leo, Mr Chapman is on line one.  He says he has time to talk to you over a cup of coffee.  What should I tell him?

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:12 | 394717 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

In all sincerity, I look forward to your analysis/opinion on it.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:10 | 394684 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

This is Washington for you:

Romer Discusses May Jobs Report, Stimulus Spending

"The important thing to say is, of course, any month you add 431 thousand jobs, we see the unemployment rate go down, two tenths of a percentage point, is a good month"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trz1TT55AHs&feature=channel

Really, Romer is always so gigglish and happy, what kind of drugs could she be on?

Maybe it's "the warm, the richly coloured, the infinitely friendly world of soma-holiday. How kind, how good-looking, how delightfully amusing every one was!", huh?

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:51 | 395112 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

This is why the Obama administration is toast. They continually treat the American public as if they are idiots. Why not come out and say "The jobs numbers are disappointing, but we are going to re-double our efforts to create well-paying private sector jobs"? Instead they insult us with the happy-talk bullshit that everyone knows isn't true.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:36 | 394806 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Oh, that's gonna leave a mark

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:38 | 394813 knukles
knukles's picture

We are just soooooooooooooo Fucked.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:42 | 394837 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

The jobs data is weak. But, you have failed to account for jobs "saved." Merely looking at job creation is a thing of the past. Also, the President can make the census workers permanent positions. When they wrap up the census they can go door to door to inspect homes for energy efficiency, guns, tea party or other Republican literature, and the like. The President can also unionize the census workers, and give them brown shirts with Obama logos on them.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:49 | 394882 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Agreed. 

 

On another note, I actually saved 23 lives yesterday by not taking my truck up on the sidewalk and running over the pedestrians in front of me.  Hell, I might do the same today.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 13:37 | 395234 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Dude, you're a hero!

Give this man a Nobel.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 11:46 | 394854 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

"Obama-May jobs report show economy strengthening"

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0415483620100604

 

Obama- "This report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day,"

You just can't make this shit up.

 


Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho/Pauly Shore in 2012!!!


Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:03 | 394905 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Please, Cease the Christina Romer attack... she has always been a positive influence in my life, I remember watching her as a child when she hosted Romper Room. Still as bubbly as then, it not as though she is Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:17 | 394959 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the AGENDA is FULL speed ahead.

Cap & TRAP.............

And the parties, vacations, five hours to shoot 18 holes, and McCartney( what a DICK)...............

Nero, did the same........................wonder if Clusterfoxtrot can play a fiddle?.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:17 | 394960 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the AGENDA is FULL speed ahead.

Cap & TRAP.............

And the parties, vacations, five hours to shoot 18 holes, and McCartney( what a DICK)...............

Nero, did the same........................wonder if Clusterfoxtrot can play a fiddle?.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 12:53 | 395114 Gimp
Gimp's picture

All those government jobs are really adding to the growth of our GDP....NOT.

Ach Tung Baby.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 14:01 | 395330 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Also note the BLS revised the March number down, from +230k to +208k.

Fri, 06/04/2010 - 23:28 | 396482 MoneyMcbags
MoneyMcbags's picture

So the economy lost somewhere between 10k and 225k permanent jobs.  I guess it could be worse, we could be Hungary.

Money McBags has a more detailed rant on the job numbers including thoughts on the birth-death model.

 

http://whengeniusprevailed.blogspot.com/2010/06/6410-midafternoon-report...

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