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Must See: Nordea's Chart Of The Week - Collapsing US Import Demand
Every massive inventory accumulation.... has an equal and opposite effect on GDP. To all those who snickered at the earlier chart of the BDIY, we recommend you read the following brief blurb from Nordea, whose implications may put everything you have heard about a surge in GDP in Q4 and Q1 (primarily from the Goldman bull brigade) in a just slightly different light.
Cargo stagnation
We have understood that Chinese cargo ships have been told to proceed at 'wind speed', because of a collapse in US import demand - this is partly visible in the activity amongst Long Beaches shoremen - hence, is this the final proof that the inventory rebuild that drove the recovery in the autumn is OVER? Figure 1 shows the average speed amongst bulk carriers! Bulls - Watch Out!
h/t Paulo
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yikes
RainbowTrader? Care to chime in with one of your FED mainline Viagra induced boner stock charts?
OK Sheep Dog...
How about a simple chart of the IWM?
Usually before the market tops out, the Russell 2000 is one of the first indexes to break down and exhibit relative weakness.
So far, its holding up still...
I don't try to predict when the market is going to top out or crash. I'd rather let the market tell me first. It could happen Monday, or it could happen a year from now. I don't know.
LOL...
Its a sign that people will buy anything but US debt/dollars.
Any stock will nominally rise when priced in dollars but if you price them in gold, you are still losing.
Oh RainbowTrader, so old markets paradigms are now in full effect? Nevermind dead-empty markets? BTW isnt that IWM up on collapsed-to-zero volume? When the markets do implode, how do you and the other 3 bulls plan on getting out?
The Index thanks the President's Working Group on Financial Markets; the same people who brought you tungsten ETFs. Larry Summers everybody! And lets not forget Rob Rubin, and Greenspan. Now of course, Bernanke is running that mofo.
"Get some!" -Blackhawk Ben Shalom Bernanke
Full Metal Jacket Bernanke Reigns Terror From Above:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S06nIz4scvI
Spare the Diesel whip, the economy is sinking !
Solid indication of where this is headed.
http://www.marinetraffic.com has 'interesting' data, but I could not find their source.
What a great site! Thanks for the link.
Hey maybe they are slowing it down because they believe in ManBearPig and want to cut emissions.
O/T... But, now you can get your gold in Boca. Check it out here.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fancy-ATM-skips-the-folding-apf-3352547475.html?x=0
with inflation going up, those goods will be more expensive once they reach shore! chinese aren't that stupid!
Has anyone seen the article about the post office letters from Santa? How fucking depressing it is and kids are asking for clothing for their parents and shit? So all those fucking iPods can just sit out there and rot for all I care. The xmas hologram is just a big cash extraction scam anyway. You can donate money or fulfill wishes at the operation santa section on the post office site.
+++ and well said.
I'll be laughing along with the puns and sarcasm, then I'll get really angry
I (my kind hearted wife) got some angels off the angel tree this year (I didn't even know what the fuck it was... but anyway). She said there were all kinds of angels for children less than 1 year old requesting MP3 players, ipods, ipads, etc. She does mental health counseling and says her clients routinely brag about placing angles in each of the surrounding counties and states... rack up the loot.
Of course, I cannot convince my wife that she can obtain no reasonable assurance that the angels she picked were not doing the same... at least I didn't have to put up christmas lights.
So you're giving your kids whools socks he?...
.
..
You're kids must really love you.
I love getting good sox for Christmas. So does my son. Seriously.
If the whole family thing is really working, you love the parent even if they can't give you a great gift. That was a point of the Santa letters, kids asking Santa for a good coat for mom, things like that. They don't have a Santa letter thing in my state or I'd do it. There is a Christmas angel thing I am hunting down, the deadline to do it is past, but I'll figure out something. Ripped my heart out reading about that on Mish's site.
You want Red Sox or White Sox? You choose. You can't have a starter, but since it's the off season, there's no reason you can't have a promising young reliever. Just so he's in some kind of shape for spring training when you're done with him.
Nice. So this is about getting some "hot" sox practice in the off season. If I'd do either, does that make me bi-soxual? Me and Susan Sarandon...
That's bo-soxual. Those would be the red ones.
I gotta say it's profoundly sad to hear that some kids are in such deprived and hopeless situations.
I was a kid without boots and gloves in Michigan winters who got socks and underware for Christmas--but I still had higher hopes for Santa. How sad is it when you can't ask Santy Clauz for some decent toys?
I saw that. I'm not a crier, but I came close with that story. We get a kid off the tree in our parish every Christmas. Most of the requests this year were for basics: socks, underwear, coats, etc.
www.worldvision.org alleviates suffering world-wide.
Anyone have the baltric dry shipping index numbers. That will say the futures interest in shipping
Baltic Dry index in previous article today. Also plunging.
Anyone have the baltric dry shipping index numbers. That will say the futures interest in shipping
The Chinese are manufacturing into a full inventory pipeline. They made the pipe longer by keeping vessels at sea longer.They probably have a few ships doing circles in the Pacific, too. They'll arrive late "with regrets" but the time lost was spent back at the factory making more.
One all the equipment is finally at sea that pipe is full. Then they'll have to stockpile on the piers, but at that point everyone will notice and they'll have to shut down some production. In the middle of winter, that's not going to go over very well.
I'll give this maybe 6 months before the riots start over there.
The slide into a post-industrial world is tracking and on glide path. Woe unto man.
Hey Cougar, and anyone else who like to keep up on information tech, this site seems to do a good job of covering interesting developments which may never see the MSN. For instance:
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/241876,openbsd-has-fbi-backdoor-claims-con...
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/241963,physicists-improve-spin-information...
Cheers everyone :~)
Basic principles still apply:
You cannot engineer backdoors into open source software and get away with it for long. The source is available to all, anyone that wants to look at it can do so. There are many people who do just that, and some of them get paid for it. If there really is a backdoor in the ipsec stack then shortly there will not be.
The contractor in question might have been working on a software fork of the BSD kernel, maybe for the US government. That sort of thing happens all the time. They are required by the license to make all modifications made to open source software available to the OS community, but they might not and in the case of government work might claim national security and blow off the community. As such, this work might have never seen the light of day outside a small project to interconnect AG offices. The FBI branching the AGs sounds about right, not even sure what the legal implications would amount to should someone at DHS decide to trot out the Patriot Act and go all TSA on their junk.
The item on storage is somewhat interesting, but they've been headed that way for a long time. I can store 16Gb on a 1" thumbdrive, for $60. This is verging on insanity.
Oh, great. Thanks a lot. Now you've got the baby crying.
Rejoice for relief is at hand! Somewhere at sea right now is a vessel with a shipping container full of lead- and cadmium-contaminated phenolic plastic pacifiers from China. But it's cruising at wind speed, so your relief might be delayed.
That is an awesome comment
Speed bumps?
It was just announced that they've been ordered to rip out their combustion motors and retrofit these cargo ships with literal sails, because of the environment.
You'll have to do more than put sails on those pigs to make them move...
I have not looked at this data carefully, but over the past few weeks there has been a sharp fall of US oil imports. It is useful to always remember that oil dominates US import data. With falling consumption there is less need for any sort of just-in-time inventory management for oil. Recent (few months ago) data points to increased consumption over last year, but again, this is suspect in just the past few weeks. The US imports over 10 million barrels per day.
This data may not be relevant to the article, but if the focus is on US imports, start with oil -- always.
------
Looks cool too.
right on cue: M. Lee sums it up on fast money: "so basically you recommend buying the dip." too funny
BUY! THE! FUCKING! DIP!
LOL I wouldnt touch this rigged for implosion casino if I had all the free money in the world.
Cue the Ben Bernanke!
That's almost as funny as M. Lee deciding to redifine the complex mathematical idea of "second derivative" to now mean "having some kind of vague relationship/connection to".
For example, this statemenk lacks zazz:
If, instead, you say:
it makes you sound quite a bit more sophisticated, especially if you keep saying it every 5 minutes.
According to Calafia Beach Pundit, exports are going the other direction -- at least from the west coast
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
Supertankers Head for Worst December in Nine Years as Ship Glut Cuts Rates
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/new/2010/12/17/supertankers-head-for-worst-december-in-nine-years-as-ship-glut-cuts-rates/
Baltic index to rise slightly in Q1
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/new/2010/12/17/baltic-index-to-rise-slightly-in-q1/
A whole lot of "Bull" to watch out for.
Do they lie because they believe the wrong thing (thus not lying, but ignorant/in denial)?
Do they lie because they hope positive thinking will kick the economy into gear?
Do they lie for time to escape so we don't kill them?
Do they lie stalling for time for a solution to manifest?
Do they lie because they want as much time as possible to loot the treasury and the pantry?
It's like being stuck in a bad relationship and the other person won't admit anything is wrong and they gaslight you, tell you to get therapy, and tell you that you're the one with the problem when you know in your gut that something is fucked, fucked, fucked.
I want a DIVORCE!!!!
I always imagined you look like Ingrid Bergman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8DoFCQhRlw&feature=related
ouch you just made me re-evaluate my relationship
Google "long beach shipping port activity", because Google doesn't lie:
Google shows this first, I shit you not:
Port of Long Beach (The Green Port) Children's Activities
http://www.polb.com/community/education/activities/default.asp
AUG-13 July cargo shipments rise at ports of L.A., Long Beach
http://www.dailybreeze.com/news/ci_15771029
NOV-26 Los Angeles, Long Beach ports show signs of economic recover
http://www.scpr.org/news/2010/11/26/signs-economic-recovery-southland-po...
DEC-16 L.A and Long Beach ports see huge November growth in cargo traffic
http://www.supplychaindigital.com/tags/ports/la-and-long-beach-ports-see...
????-?? Port of Long Beach shipping picks up (CNN Does not date their video 'Blogs' ???)
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2010/09/28/n_co_long_beach_port.fortune/
interesting...but it doesnt mean JACK SHIT!
DOESNT MEAN JACK SHIT. THIS CHARADE MUST GO ON...
look at the Baltic Dry Index as well, which pretty much deflates talk of an economic recovery. from Wikinvest:
Thing to consider, while spec premium rises, demand is actually fallling. And with interest rates rising, is the bubble about to burst?
Oh, by the way....
Last time a slew of Hindenburg Omen calls came out and all the "Fast Money" guys were buying "protection" hand over fist when they speculated the market was going to roll over....
At that time, the CRB was diverging, going up even when the dollar was going up.
The SPY took off shortly thereafter.
Same thing is happening now. CRB up, dollar up.
Does this mean the dips are still buying in?
is that resistance? at 320? If you put the BDI up against the CRB you see correlation. Now the BDI is falling, freight speed is probably a leading indicator. And you put the CRB against the USD and you see correlation, so what the hell are you looking at?
hell
Looks highly bullish! Yea! Buy da dip!!
easy for you to say. i see RSI divergence, and support at 295, you can draw a line back to the peak Jan 2010 (nice time symmetry too), take that number out and its sell the rally. It also matters what you think of interest rates, but the CRB:TLT correlation is perfectly inverse, interest rates go up, and the CRB goes up? hmm. somebody is playing the inflation card. and without real demand BDI, that is stagflation for sure.
and the only thing you can glean from the SPX vs the CRB is that in during the 2008 crash, the CRB fell faster than equities and that currently the CRB is outpacing the SPX, which means the SPX may play catchup but I vote for the stagflation angle. but must see some historical charts
Sorry, sometimes my highly sarcastic nature just gets the better of me.
Got " X " ...?? Lol'
OT slightly, but I'm an engineering grad student at a top 15 in the country engineering school. We have career fairs every fall and spring. 2010 and 2009 were obviously "not good" years but we still had 124 companies visit campus each spring recruiting for all departments of engineering (fall is about the same). We had about twice as many in the "good" years before that. It is currently six weeks until the 2011 fair and so far a total of only 34 companies are signed up. I've been watching and this is updated daily (added 6 this week). Also worth noting that approximately half of the positions being recruited are co-ops or interns, not specifically long term positions.
Captcha was about the same difficulty as my final this morning.
I believe it.
I have a cousin who graduated from NYU Polytechnic and says many of his classmates have not been able to find any employment, and that recruiters on campus are about half what they were in his freshman year. He also said the same thing you did; to wit, that many of the companies showing up for on campus recruitment want to get free interns, with vague references to possible future positions.
Wind speed my ass. The Chinese should just hire the 99+ weekers to ROW the fucking mega-container ships over. By the time they got here at least they'd have some money to spend...
Dennis Hopper popped instantly into my head.
LMAO
++ Loved that movie.. Perfect irony that the first set sunk..
Obama's 2012 re-election bid is comming from that movie.
Go long SMEAT futures.
No double-dip. no depression. it's all over! Thank the high heavens! (we have a ton to be thankful for this holiday season, folks)
WE were saved! Bernanke will go down as the greatest economist that ever lived!
It is so nice knowing that my children can grow up and not have to live through the same heck fire as my grandparents had to go through (Great Depression).
Keep on doooming in the free world!
America is coming back. 2011 is going to be great! Obama will be re-elected in 2012 and unemployment will be 7% during his second term.
We can talk about fraud all day (People do need to be jailed if they broke the law). ZH has been great on covering those stories! Keep up the great work!
U-6 Unemployment is 18% at the very least......(B)eurueof(L)abor(S)tatistics revisionista bull and whatnoot.
My mind's eye sees you as a one legged cheerleader, replete in dress, pompoms, and pigtails.
Do you work for the Fed?
Oops! Fat finger again.
George Bush was a cheerleader too. I mean that both ways...
I'm pretty sure even Harry Wagner would deem you junk-worthy.
I have no problem with people being of a differing opinion from the majority on this site . Robot Trader and Harry Wanger being the two most prominent . However , I find it hard to believe that you are anything other than a troll . Either that or I have serious doubts that you have a decent understanding of economics/finance .
No offense intended , that's just how things appear to me .
I adore your optimistic blind side. Get a seeing eye dog, you really need one. German shepherd can help you with the math. By the time you figure out how hopelessly clueless you are , the dog will own you.
If your post was meant as some kind of performance art then bravo! Got a good chuckle out of it!
If you are serious about what you said then it reminds me of the old joke about the definition of an optimist; someone who gets a bag of hores shit for Christmas and runs around the tree wildly exclaiming that there must be a pony here somewhere!
When you said you have children for some reason Bill Gates and eugenics came to mind.
PPT really got those gold stocks down the last week. Buyers however are coming out of the woodwork now to spend their "strong" dollars will they can. Get 'er while shes hot!
Buy the collapse!
Ha ha!
"Buy the end of civilization!"
Seriously, people are starting to sound deranged.
Starting?
Really.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8zd6HBhuQI&NR=1
I thought "buy the end of civilization" was what CDS were?
Yeah, well, if they start making sense, you've been abducted.
comment of week award
Lots of readings dripping off those few words. I agree.
Lower average fleet speed will result in lower fuel consumption and therefore lower energy prices. Nothing but blue skies!!!
{sarcasm off}
this chart could be a leading indicator of demand but it is not the same as demand and could reflect port logistics - a port which the chinese own.
anyone drawing inferences from this chart is being sensationalistic...
Just because you and your peeps don't have any money doesn't mean we won't get hyper inflation. Your mental images of driving around in a pickup truck with bales of money to buy breakfast are not the reality of the situation. The $2.99 in your pocket will still be $2.99. It just won't buy anything.
This was a reply to someway back up there that I entered in the wrong place.
But what will an ounce of silver get you?
Mugged?
A pistol.
Ooooh. The ships are moving 1mph slower! Maybe the price of fuel is causing the slowdown?
Here, in Vancouver's outer harbour we still have 7 - 10 ships waiting in rotation but the size of the cargo ships is smaller.
It's not the size of the vessel, it's the speed of the deed.
Curious though, does a lot of that cargo end up in the US of A, or is it mostly Canada-bound?
Okay, probably nobody knows but Wal-Mart, but as a fellow Cascadian, I thought I'd ask.
talking about charts ...i was looking at the NIFTY ( indian market index)......was trying to learn elliot wave .......just need some clarification.....look at the chart below ...click on the 6 month or 1 year window
http://www.stockezy.com/markets/nse/
starting from around 1st of July when the index is at 5235....am i correct with these identifications......
0---5235;1---5543;2---5402;3---6233;4---5987;5---6312.
and then comes the big down A -wave ending at 5751....
so am i correct in identifying the pattern .....is ABC crash forming ???
is that A forming way below 4 show something??
Looks kind of similar to this chart too: http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wttntus2&f=w
total net crude imports were 7.793 million barrels per day in the last report. That is an import level below any week since the week ending February 27th 1998.
This is what I mentioned above. Oil imports have sharply declined in recent weeks and there seems to be no obvious explanation.
The oil consumption data for the US is typically months old, so this recent weeks information can't correlate to consumption (which we should NEVER forget need not be identical to "demand").
There is some talk beginning that oil is going to China and India and Asia and there is less available for elsewhere. That would be bad. In a free market where the "price of oil" is accurately discovered by trading we would have visibility into this matter, but in a world where China has tied up long term supply in bilateral non public contracts, we don't have visibility.
The lack of transparency is bad, but if it means there is less buying on the open market going on, it probably also means the spot price is considerably below what it would be otherwise, so this could be a blessing in disguise.
Don't you recognize the descending radiused step Milli Vanilli omen? See, the inventory pipeline is full, which will result in lower prices, which will free up consumer cash. This is as bullish as it gets.
Buy the fucking ship(load) you idiot!
if only you could trake your heads out of your US-centric arses for 2 seconds and realise there is another world... this chart means shit without China boat speeds to India/Malaysia/Australia/Vietnam... without China truck numbers... la la la... you get my drift... IT DOES MEAN sell US companies that sell to US consumers only and it does mean sell US Treasuries... and that is all it means... we have seen all US-centric US companies have bad results this last qtr... and international sellers fare ok... the rest of the world's consumers are picking up slack at a greater pace than the US and most of W Europe is falling off... THE WORLD HAS CHANGED!! The US consumer has not been the eb all and end all for the last 2 years and will never be again... wake the f'ck up folks
Aha! BRIC will save us all!
I think that tagline is reductio ad absurdum.
You're going to see the shitstorm China suffers as it tries to restructure its cheap labor model in response to slowing exports, only to realize cheap labor can't fix what ails its nation.
As far as India is concerned, I will concede that they're better insulated against the very worst of the future holds, as their dual advantage of high IT/Engineering/Pharma competency coupled with an ability to speak fluent English will help them relative to nations dependent on manufacturing principally.
@dickbar
You have a point, but the U.S. market does represent about 25% of Chinese export sales, and over 35% if you include the flow-throughs from Korea and Japan. It's not something they can blow-off just yet.
Aha! Two Indian's in a row. I'm relaxed though.
That chart...hmmm...telling indeed.
Demand collapse? Actually it is Artificially Created Demand collapse.
Big difference. America and Europe are going through a demand contraction as a result of lower efficiency of Artificial Demand Creation Mechanisms (media overloaded public, poor financial situation, future uncertain etc.). Artificial demand is collapsing. Hurray! Really.
Here in India, we are at the pre-top side of the Artificial Demand Creation Curve. Advertising is getting shriller and basically more naked, literally and figuratively. So is Bollywood by the way. Simply awful.
Shops are crawling with people spending, buying cars and what not.
When the velocity of Artificial Demand Creation Monies collapses here, it will be a sight to behold, and that day is coming.
Unnnyways, there you have it.
Slow ships,
Round hips,
Is that your Naval,
Officer? Ess?
Such a mess.
in,
Slow ships.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
So what's the best stock to short? DRYS seems to be hobbling along and due for another drop(?)
i guess having read a little more this is a global speed thing... i'll get my coat... apologies for the rant
Being devil's advocate here:
Seems like more data is needed than just the past 2.5 years. 2008 was obviously an anomaly - it made sense for it to plummet since everything was contracting like crazy. The Baltic Dry index plummeted at the same time, by over 90%. I venture that 2009 was an anomaly (opposite direction) as well - people were coming out of hunker-down mode and starting to buy again. The Baltic Dry index didn't go down last year. It may well be normal for there to be an end-of-year dip in this measure, due to inventory buildup for the holidays being completed, but we just didn't see it in 2009 since 2009 was an unusual year of rebuilding inventory (due to the "recovery").
Again, just being devil's advocate. While the Baltic Dry is down some - it's not down nearly as much as it was in 2008, and thus seems to contradict this vessel fleet speed measure, or at least the conclusion that it's because of hugely unnatural inventory buildup.
The index crashed more in 2008 because it was being measured by the prior bubble year.
That it's declining in this manner now is arguably more a cause of concern, as it basically signals the market is shouting "Bernanke, you can print all you want, but you still fail as an economist, you have no common sense, and you're not going to change the laws of supply and demand no matter what you do or think you can do, bitch!"...
...sort of like what bond yields are shouting to The Bernank about monetization right now.
If what The Bernank is doing worked, then everyone would have been doing this insanity for thousands of years! However, EVERY time countries have done what The Bernank is doing, it has resulted in a collapsed country, or world war. The more things change, the more they stay the same...or as Will Rogers said, 'History doesnt really repeat itself, but it rhymes'
Those ships will have to go into reverse before this supply chain becomes sustainable.
For God sake just end it BB - revalue Gold and start again.
BB is going to mandate next year that banks either start flooding the system with loans or they get closed down.
There is so much fucking liquidty on balance sheets and no place to go.. it will be a super orgasmic event when the flood of cash is finding its way into the economy.
Prepare for double digit economic growth to last 2 years that will make the 50ees seem like a slumber party.
The cash is going worthless. Cash needs to work or it becomes stale. The elite has no demand for yet another S class, super mansion or yacht. Their vast cash holdings are not going to guarantee them any returns.
Speak to any fund manager on the Street.
Cash has no flavor, has no sex appeal.
I understand that you think there's a lot of cash.
Wait until you get a look at the debt levels - and this is with the farce of mark to fantasy asset valuations that the Federal Reserve Syndicate and Treasury are allowing (mark to reality/market would be 2x to 3x as bad).
The cash is there. It was there right from the start in September '08 when massive liquidations of equities started.
The bond market is a crowded theatre with only one exit. Leave now quietly, take your money and find another vehicle before the stampede hits.
Pimco says they allocating 25 billion into Preferred shares, not Common. Pimco is just one of so many funds out there trying to do the same. That works until the banks start lending to businesses. Only reason for a business to enter a deal with Pimco or others and issue Preferreds is because the banks are refusing to lend money on regular loan terms. The banks are making themselves irrelevant in the process but they haven't fully grasped that. Alternative lending is the name of the game. Conventional lending through a bank is going out of style. So are banks unless they adapt and quickly.
BB's intention to flood the market with cash has always been to penalize the holders of cash and cash equivalent. The realization is now setting in. Get rid of the cash while you can still buy something at today's price. What you could buy with $250,000 a year ago is costing $300,000 next year. The margins of bonds and other cash products aren't preventing the loss of wealth (on paper) in terms of real inflation.
I think you make some valid points, but I'm seeing the flipside, too; which is that many wealthy Americans and businesses alike have seen a precipitous drop on income, many individuals still have cash tied up in not-so-easy to liquidate assets, which are subject to further devaluation, and businesses and banks have hoarded as much cash as possible as insurance against further shocks, crises or another large downturn.
Much of the reflation trade Bernanke has aimed for has seen dollars go into the types of assets that could suffer a serious devaluation (think tnotes) if things spiral out of control for Bernanke (I think this process may have begun in earnest, as bonds are giving Bernanke the fat finger, despite that one of his primary policy goals was to lower long term interest rates via QE).
So, we still have wealth destruction, the type which could accelerate briskly due to future shocks, and the cash that's been stacked may be needed to stem losses and prevent wholesale insolvencies (I believe this is absolutely the case with many banks).
And the bottom line is that Bernanke has not executed any policies that have solved the underlying economic problems we have and that we face. As a matter of fact, I would argue Bernanke has only created misallocations of capital, price distortions in asset classes and essentially tried to buy time, while he hopes and prays for what Robert Shiller calls 'Animal Spirits' to work their magic and turn the economy around.
I don't see how this is going to happen as we are not merely suffering a business cycle recession. It's much more systemic, structural and deeper than that.
Maybe the mistake is that we're putting too much emphasis on Bernanke. He is only one man that puts his pants on, one leg at a time.
He's responsible, yes no doubt. In the sense that he is exercising control and putting policies in place which have far reaching consequences. But even his marching orders are coming from elsewhere. Wealthy individuals and institutions are being consulted and informed every step of the way.
The main issue is still debt. There's too much of it and in order to keep the status quo, the debt ceiling needs to be raised. That is not new. It's just come to the surface when the shit hit the proverbial fan in 2008. You're right that this economic correction (recession or depression doesn't really grasp it) is systemic.
Now, the correction is happening. It went from really ugly in 2008 to a little bit prettier in 2009 and now the true picture is becoming exposed little by little.
Everyone sees it, everyone has an opinion but nobody dares to touch it or say how to fix it because it's still regarded a master piece.
But in every crowd of spectators there's that kid that says it like it is. That kid will say the 'Emperor has no clothes' or the equivalent that our current economic models are just not viable and sustainable at all and we need to collectively figure out a way to survive as a group whilst maintaining quality of life.
The pensions and other entitlements that were promised 40 years ago cannot be paid. Things change. It's beyond anyone's level of influence really. The models that planners were using are not working as they're supposed to. The reset needs to happen, many reforms need to happen and that will probably include some form of debt jubilee and a slashing of all entitlements and public service sector contracts.
At the very least it should be given a consideration. Our kids and grandkids, all future generations deserve that we make those decisions now and exercise caution and foresight. Otherwise these future generations will simply look back at this time and disqualify everything that has been done in this era of prosperity.
I care about that more than I care about the next greatest fast money making hype or "deal".
Get used to it.
I came home with a nice mustard cream and realized my Finer Meats package hadn't arrived in the post yet.
I feel so bad--I already bought the dip but the wurst is yet to come. What to do...
I hope you have not bread contempt...
LOL - I have to say, now that was funny!
I think you mean punny
nobody wants to hold cash positions.
there's a flurry of vast amount of cash droppings into charity bins.
cash value going zero, money managers waking up sweating that they've missed the equity rally and holding worthless bonds instead..
the flood of cash into the open market, into any market for that matter starting in January will be one for the history books.
make your beDs (capital D) accordingly
...and the original, still a classic ...
http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/youare
Without US employment and retail demand there is no economy really.
The continuation of Japanification policy will strangle any recovery in its cradle.
Bill Gross said to expect zero real returns across all major asset classes. Late but correct call.
You have to SAVE MORE and SPEND LESS to KEEP UP therefore retail sales are hamstrung by the financial sector endless bailout that is the No Bond Haircuts policy disaster.
This will continue until the policy is changed.
Have a nice sideways decade.
Won't happen. Too many depend on margins to provide income, any income. Banks, investors, funds etc. They can charge about 2% fees but if their performance is less than 2%, they have a problem. Investors including institutional investors can shop around for better returns and will pull their funds when they're getting a better product elsewhere.
Playing it safe has cost many players alot of wealth over the last 18 months or so. Real erm wealth measured against just about every other asset class. That won't continue and you'll see a flood of cash coming into the economy.
The genie is out of the bottle. Where do you put your cash?
It doesn't matter what institutional money managers like. They can't change the fact that they will lose investors money by doing anything other than a 'normal' allocation. The overall return will just be lower. Chasing margin with higher-risk approaches is a suckers' game. Honesty would be better (well someone had to say it).
8% annual return was an illusion, just like this recent runup is if you stay invested. Take an index chart, put it in linear scale and just look at the damn thing. Dow 10,000 how many more times???
Bottom line: Fine to stay invested but adjust expectations.
The market is like 911. Strange things, like bombs going off, then WTC 7 collapsing. Nothing seemed to make rational sense. Disambiguation everywhere. How everything changed on that day, but not in any way that could be perceived. The explanation of what WAS happening compared to what was perceived. Today feels like run away nuclear fusion. No one is in control of the reactor now. I'm out of popcorn and scraping the salt off the bottom of the bowl.
Peter can say what he wants, but 60% in 3 months is not identcal to 20% per month.. That's a pretty dumb statement.
Right?
ships were leaving the usa empty. now they're returning with cargo.
ship speeds vary according to weight on-board and delays in destination ports
i just made that up to show how easy it is to prove a point according to one's own agenda
I don't know, I think this "chart" feels like an April Fool's joke than a correlation. I'd want to see wholesale inventory and retail sales in the pertinent sectors before I drew a conclusion. Major importers do not call up the captains of freighters in mid Pacific and tell them to slow down a bit until they have shifted more volume.
Average speed of vessels? What next? The length of women's skirts? Anecdotally it feels right, but you know it could be tenuous.
You know that speed costs fuel, right?
Yeah, I get you and the crux of this post. Cost cutting by the shipping companies => down turn in their sector => fewer deliveries => Collapsing import demand. It is STILL tenuous. You can stop at the first instance of cost cutting - everyone on the planet is doing it. As I said, anecdotally it feels right, but this certainly is not concrete or even a logical progression.
I think the long beach slowdown is also due to the mexican ports the chinese built to avoid union labor.
Los Angeles Port Export Volume Highest Ever for the Month of November:
http://ow.ly/2brTAH
Los Angeles Port Export Volume Highest Ever for the Month of November:
http://ow.ly/2brTAH
Could this have something to do with fuel prices? Anyhow, isn't this chart something one could partly replicate at home, using AIS data and so on?