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Oil Spill: Here's The Inside Scoop
The Gulf oil spill is much worse than originally believed.
As the Christian Science Monitor writes:
It's now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day.
Independent scientists estimate that the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to 25,000 barrels a day. If chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.
CNN quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.
Indeed, an environmental document filed by the company running the oil drilling rig - BP - estimates the maximum as 162,000 barrels a day:
In an exploration plan and environmental impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP said it had the capability to handle a “worst-case scenario” at the Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000 barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout — 6.8 million gallons each day.
Best-Case Scenario
BP is trying to perform a difficult task of capping the leak by using robotic submarines to trigger a "blowout preventer" 5,000 feet below the surface of the ocean. Here's a photo of the robot trying to activate the switch on April 22nd:
(courtesy of the US Coast Guard)
If successful, the leak could be stopped any day. Everyone is rooting for the engineers, so that they may successfully cap the leak.
Already, however, the spill is worse than the Exxon Valdez, and will cause enormous and very costly destruction to the shrimping, fishing and tourism industries along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Florida. It will be years before good estimates on the number of dead fish, turtles, birds and other animals can be made.
The Backup Plan
If the blowout preventer can't be triggered, the backup plan is to drill another well to relieve pressure from the leaking well.
Here's a drawing prepared by BP showing the plan (the drilling rig on the left will take months to drill down and relieve pressure from the leaking rig):
Here's a graphic from the Times-Picayune showing the same thing (and accurately showing that there are currently 3 leaking oil plumes):
BP will also attempt to drop concrete and metal "cages" over the leak sites, to try to buy time by collecting oil in the cages, and then draining oil away in a safer manner. In addition, BP is using chemical disperents to try to break up the oil plumes as they arise.
Worst-Case Scenario
As the Associated Press notes:
Experts warned that an uncontrolled gusher could create a nightmare scenario if the Gulf Stream carries it toward the Atlantic.
This would, in fact, be very bad, as it would carry oil far up the Eastern seaboard.
Specifically, as the red arrows at the left of the following drawing show, the Gulf Stream runs from Florida up the Eastern Coast of the United States:
[Click here for full image.]
But how could the oil get all the way from Louisiana to Florida, where the Gulf Stream flows?
As Discovery explains:
Many ocean scientists are now raising concerns that a powerful current could spread the still-bubbling slick from the Florida Keys all the way to Cape Hatteras off North Carolina.
These oceanographers are carefully watching the Gulf Loop Current, a clockwise swirl of warm water that sets up in the Gulf of Mexico each spring and summer. If the spill meets the loop -- the disaster becomes a runaway.
"It could make it from Louisiana all the way to Miami in a week, maybe less." said Eric Chassignet, director of the Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. "It is pretty fast."
Right now, some computer models show the spill 30 to 50 miles north of the loop current. If the onshore winds turn around and push the oil further south: "That would be a nightmare," said Yonggang Liu, research associate at the University of South Florida who models the current. "Hopefully we are lucky, but who knows. The winds are changing and difficult to predict."
Imagine the loop current as an ocean-going highway, transporting tiny plankton, fish and other marine life along a watery conveyor belt. Sometimes it even picks up a slug of freshwater from the Mississippi River -- sending it on a wandering journey up to North Carolina.
The Gulf Loop Current acts like a jet of warm water that squirts in from the Caribbean basin and sloshes around the Gulf of Mexico before being squeezed out the Florida Strait, where it joins the larger and more powerful Gulf Stream current.
***
Oceanographer George Maul worries that the current could push the oil slick right through the Florida Keys and its 6,000 coral reefs.
"I looked at some recent satellite imagery and it looks like some of the oil may be shifted to the south," said Maul, a professor at Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, Fla. "If it gets entrained in the loop, it could spread throughout much of the Atlantic."
In fact, new animation from a consortium of Florida institutions and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts a slight southward shift in the oil over the next few days.
A graphic from the Discovery article shows what the Gulf loop current looks like:
The Gulf Loop Current enters from the Caribbean basin,
moves around the Gulf of Mexico and
exits out the Florida Strait, where it joins
the more powerful Gulf Stream current.
Naval Oceanographic Office
According to ROFFS, the oil spill is getting close to the loop current:
In a worst-case scenario - if the oil leak continued for a very long period of time - the oil could conceivably be carried from the Gulf Stream into world-wide ocean currents (see drawing above).
I do not believe this will happen. Even with the staggering quantity of oil being released, I don't think it's enough to make its way into other ocean currents. I think that either engineers will figure out how to cap the leak, or the oil deposits will simply run out. It might get into the Gulf loop current, and some might get into the Gulf Stream. But I don't believe the apocalyptic scenarios where oil is carried world-wide by teh Gulf Stream or other ocean currents.
Changing the Climate
There is an even more dramatic - but even less likely - scenario.
Specifically, global warming activists have warned for years that warming could cause the "great conveyor belt" of warm ocean water to shut down. They say that such a shut down could - in turn - cause the climate to abruptly change, and a new ice age to begin. (This essay neither tries to endorse or refute global warming or global cooling in general: I am focusing solely on the oil spill.)
The drawing above shows the worldwide "great conveyer belt" of ocean currents, which are largely driven by the interaction of normal ocean water with colder and saltier ocean currents.
Conceivably - if the oil spill continued for years - the greater thickness or "viscosity" of the oil in comparison to ocean water, or the different ability of oil and seawater to hold warmth (called "specific heat"), could interfere with the normal temperature and salinity processes which drive the ocean currents, and thus shut down the ocean currents and change the world's climate.
However, while this is an interesting theory (and could make for a good novel or movie), it simply will not happen.
Why not?
Because there simply is not enough oil in the leaking oil pocket to interfere with global ocean currents. And even if this turns out to be a much bigger oil pocket than geologists predict, some smart engineer will figure out how to cap the leak well before any doomsday scenario could possibly happen.
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Blame HAL
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/44349
Brilliant
federal law sets a limit of $75 million on BP’s liability for damages, apart from the cleanup costs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/03/us/03spill.html?pagewanted=2
Authored by New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, and co-signed by fellow Garden Stater
Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, the (craftily-titled) "Big Oil Bailout Prevention Act" would raise the economic damages liability cap for offshore oil spills from $75 million to $10 billion.
Of course.
"Supreme Court Cuts $2.5 Billion Exxon Valdez Settlement to $500 Million"
http://www.takepart.com/news/2008/06/26/supreme-court-cuts-25-billion-exxon-valdez-settlement-to-500-million
Our oil industry controlled government can't permit real compensation to occur. It would set a dangerous precedent. Anyway, It looks as though no amount of money will be able to reverse the damage to the planet.
When the original settlement was announced, the public was impressed, then forgot about it (except for Alaskans whose livelihood was damaged, or those who simply care about their state's welfare). Exxon spent decades on appeals and judge-shopping, finally found one to reduce the original by 80%. I don't know if any of that has been paid out. Even if it has, when you compare 500 million to the revenues and expenses for a company this size over that many years, it can easily be rolled into cost of doing business. There is no incentive for Exxon to invest in expensive preventative safety measures. As for public outrage, well there are "Exxon" signs displayed over gas stations all over the country and no one thinks twice about pulling in for a fill up. BP is probably studying this historic lesson even now.
They all suck but Conoco Phillips apparently does not buy Saudi oil and has not had a mojor catastrophe like Exxon Mobil or BP Amaco.
So boycott them that are the most evil. And throw Royal Dutch Shell into the boycott just for fun!!
Damn the stupid worthless humans and non humans for getting in the way of their oil spill.
It's all about priorities man, PRIORITIES!
Last I heard, exxon hadn't made any payments to any of the families ruined by the spill...
They are taking a cue from their buddies at the insurance companies: appeal until the claimants are all dead.
For size of oil leak, go to Skytruth, who corrected NOAA data:
http://blog.skytruth.org/
Also, while the riser and well-head [incl BOP] still provide large resistance to flow, if they are separated and expose naked wellbore ..."Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.
[btw, got to ZH via Theoildrum.com and Theautomaticearth.com].
MY GOD! THE CHINESE WILL GET OUR OIL FOR FREE!!
This is a catastrophic event, just unbelievable;
Mother of all Gushers
Imagine a pipe 5 feet wide spewing crude oil like a fire hose from what could be the planets' largest, high-pressure oil and gas reserve. With the best technology available to man, the Deepwater Horizon rig popped a hole into that reserve and was overwhelmed. If this isn't contained, it could poison all the oceans of the world.
"Well if you say the fire hose has a 70,000 psi pump on the other end yes! No comparison here. The volume out rises geometrically with pressure. Its a squares function. Two times the pressure is 4 times the push. The Alaska pipeline is 4 feet in diameter and pushes with a lot less pressure. This situation in the Gulf of Mexico is stunning dangerous." -- Paul Noel (May 2, 2010)
I really do think that the situation is getting further and further out of hand.
By yesterday morning, the nature of the crude had changed, indicating that the spill was collapsing the rock structures. How much I cannot say. If it is collapsing the rock structures, the least that can be said is that the rock is fragmenting and blowing up the tube with the oil. With that going on you have a high pressure abrasive sand blaster working on the kinks in the pipe eroding it causing the very real risk of increasing the leaks.
More than that is the very real risk of causing the casing to become unstable and literally blowing it up the well bringing the hole to totally open condition. Another risk arises because according to reports the crew was cementing the exterior of the casing when this happens. As a result, the well, if this was not properly completed, could begin to blow outside the casing. Another possible scenario is a sea floor collapse. If that happens Katie bar the door.
Oil Deposit Capacity
The BP people are not talking, but this well is into a deposit that easily could top 500,000 barrels production per day for 10 or 15 years. Letting that all go in one blast seems more than foolish.
The deposit is one I have known about since 1988. The deposit is very big. The central pressure in the deposit is 165 to 170 thousand PSI. It contains so much hydrocarbon that you simply cannot imagine it. In published reports, BP estimated a blow out could reach near 200,000 Barrels per day (165,000) They may have estimated a flow rate on a 5 foot pipe. The deposit is well able to surpass this.
The oil industry has knowledge of the deposit more than they admit. The deposit is 100 miles off shore. They are drilling into the edge of the deposit to leak it down gently to be able to produce from the deposit. The deposit is so large that while I have never heard exact numbers it was described to me to be either the largest or the second largest oil deposit ever found. It is mostly a natural gas deposit. That is another reason not to blast too willy nilly there. The natural gas that could be released is really way beyond the oil in quantity. It is like 10,000 times the oil in the deposit.
It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas. This is a really massive deposit. Punching holes in the deposit is a really scary event as we are now seeing...
http://pesn.com/2010/05/02/9501643_Mother_of_all_gushers_could_kill_Earths_oceans/
I thought they would have this beast under control with the underwater 'umbrella' within a week...
Thanks Rusty
- it can get really bad;
http://www.youtube.com/user/tetekofa#p/f/9/rhZKUYVXM78
And ugly... nice find!
What are the chances that the local oil pools become quickly depleted and natural gas starts to emerge from the seafloor? Judging by the shallow water Vietnamese video... well I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a potential ignition source!
Here's some great shots of the rig burning as it sank...
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/the-gulf-oil-rig-explosion-on-the-scene-photos/
Thanks for the link Rusty.
.
"Some smart engineer" ? Is there such a thing in the USA nowadays ? Engineering used to be one of our forte(s) but not anymore.
Interestingly enough, most of the shrimpers in the Bayou area are Vietnamese, Chinese, Malay.
Most shrimpers are American and would call themselves either Cajun or African American. Sure there is an immigrant population, it even had a little resurgence a few decades ago, but it's been relatively steady for a couple of hundred years.
Why the knock on American engineers? American engineers are still some of the best - they're the ones who get called to build marvels like the Maglev - almost entirely American, German, even some British engineers.
Sounds to me like you don't know your countrymen that well, and you're ill-informed comments may give the impression to others that we're all as dumb as you. I'd tell you that you're free to leave, but leaving America is not really free anymore.
"Interestingly enough, most of the shrimpers in the Bayou area are Vietnamese, Chinese, Malay."
Interestingly enough, so are alot of the grad students and engineers... they come with their corrupt countries grant money... greedy university can not say no... they say no to Amerikan students with non inflated foreign grades...
"Go on take the money and run..."
The last set of plans that I worked on, as a Civil Engineer, had 1500 full-size pages. The project could have easily been built with 200 pages. Like so many other things in this age, design has become needlessly over-complicated, obscuring the important fundamentals, which opens the door to confusion & PROBLEMS. That's why I'm out of the business; and I'm only 45.
As a degreed mechanical, I begin to take offense to your comment... And then I realize that there is much validity in your words.
Just another benefit in allowing our manufacturing to leave our shores.
Eeuuuhhh.... My expresso machine broke down this weekend, do you think you could tell me how to fix it if I send you some pictures? I'm using filters for the moment.... FILTERS FOR GOD SAKE!!!
Our folks were so busy putting up the GS charade to please the sheeple that they totally forgot to check on what BP was upto in the Gulf.
Blame Goldman for your Gulf troubles now.
"This is a very complicated case..."
"You know a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what have yous...and uh lotta strands to keep in my head, man... lotta strands in ol' Duder’s head..."
That Gulf really tied the Continent together, man....
Where did you get this bullshit? I live in Louisiana, not on the coast, but I can tell you that most shrimpers are not what you wrote.
!
Thanks, I added it...