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A Quick Post Script To Mr. Jeffrey Sachs
We apologize in advance for harping back on this issue, but it is pretty damn hilarious. In the BBC Newsnight interview with Hendry, Tett and Sachs, the esteemed Columbia professor, at 4:50 into the clip, asks "How long has this Greek question been on the table. Ablout 10 weeks maybe?" A rather violent explosion from Sachs follows when Hendry calls him out on his tenured stupidity. All this was discussed yesterday. However, we wanted to provide a response to the Ivy League professor, as he did pose a legitimate question. In the following FT interview from January 2009, Hugh Hendry discussed the future of the eurozone and the PIIGS, and at 24 seconds into it, he provides the response Sachs is seeking: "I fear [the collapse of the Eurozone] is becoming more likely." He follows "If we saw parity with the euro, my goodness, that would be deemed to be unthinkable." And concludes, "There is a shortage of dollars. People think I'm crazy - they are printing billions, trillions of dollars. But keep in mind America has $50 trillion of debt outstanding. And that was fine because they thought it had $50 trillion of assets. And what we are discovering is these asset prices deflate - it's vaporization..." Dear Mr. Sachs - the very person you were sitting across the table from foresaw everything to the dot, just as it would happen 16 months later, even as you were calling up old buddies to get that Teacher of the Year award, or get that extra fellowship (in demagoguery?). Our advice to you is do what your parents did, get (an honest) job sire.... which will never happen - pouring the Kool Aid is easy and pays well. So here is our second bit of advice: watch all Hendry appearances, and listen to what he says. He will always ends up right, and you will always be wrong, since you defend a broken system which is fated for implosion. And just as Hendry sees deflation first, then hyperinflation (and watch this clip for some more brilliant insight), so it shall be. And for some reason people like Sachs will once again be invited to roundtables, in which they will goundlessly claim that nobody foresaw any of ensuing Keynesian collapse... So now that we have answered your question, we have one of our own - how does Columbia allow this level of mediocrity to be publicized on national television?
h/t Ian
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Sachs will live in tenured infamy.
Sadly, I fear that is not what history shows us.
Economists, especially the "true Academics", are mere political figures. Rather than forced to account for their dysfunction, they will merely state their views were taken out-of-context, or they will add enough qualifiers to claim they were correct all along.
Then, after cataclysmic failure, they pretend to tweak their theories, and then release another book to go on the lecture circuit.
It's true sane individuals with common sense can see them as truly moronic, but they themselves won't see their life as it is: A blight upon humanity.
History is perverse.
There may have been a French economist working for the court in Paris/Versailles in 1789 that might have disagreed with you......
La Guillotine shall claim her bloody prize.
Why anyone listens or attends Columbia is one of those mysteries in life that needs no answer. Sometimes it is better to walk around the pile of crap than through it.
Tenured infancy
"watch yer, er languange, hendry"
Watch your rhetoric, young man!!!!
Reality check for Jeffrey BallSachs... the Big Squeeze is coming.... OUCH!
I could never get enough of this, must see stuff, keep it comming...BTW Tyler, did you see this weeks gold COT? you though last week was bad....
what is the cot on gold? would someone mind posting it?
Here ya go, check out the futures/options commercial shorts, up to 518k
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1275075109.php
Gold COT is irrelevant. What is relevant are OTC derivatives [forwards [1m, 2m, 3m, 6m, 1y]]. The majority of daily Gold volume is sold OTC via LPMCL. The volume you see on COMEX is a percentage of OTC traded stuff from an earlier period. Check options expiration and what happens to gold price before it. You will get what I'm talking about.
Thanks for the office hour Professor Bastard... I just learned something...
As opposed to the wind bag Professor Suchs...
That was interesting.
I didn't understand the relevance of anything I saw, but it was interesting.
How is what you just showed us, in any way, relevant to the problems at hand?
If you cant understand why COT data is relevant and what it indicates; you are probably in the wrong place. Fuck it; i know the truth sometimes hurt; but denial is far worse.
Also if you do not understand how it is "relevant" to "problems at hand" I am not sure you know what the "problems" are.
I do not wish to sound cocky; but dumbing down the content so you could "get it" will lead us nowhere.
PS.
Meta-narratives do not work. Period. There is no "solution".
give a man a fish...
I bite my tongue and search my balls off trying to figure this shit out. Can't blame him for asking though.
Well shit dude. Its one thing when you try to gather the data [which is hard since there is a lot of it] and its another thing when you do not know what that data means or how it is important, or do not even know what the most basic terms represent. I mean, OK, we learn every single day, but some things should be known. Just look what happens to a comment section whenever a majority does not understand something which is the topic of the article; the comments drift into repeating intellectual garbage which was said 100000000000000000000000000 times before; and a couple of good comments get buried under that shit. Just throw a glance on the comment section under the latest article about Europe and you will see what I mean.
bitch slap.......
cranky, @ 4AM?
wish i could help, hon†
,,,,,,,,i listen to music to take the edge off, or more vodka.
or perhaps this, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FGk63Fv7t4
2¢
It's the new avatar the boys were talking about. Nice bike(rack). :-)
Yeah velo... shows us your tits... It made me stop at your comments every time...
Cheeky, you are right. I'm seeing more & more requests for analysis from commenters. What those commenters should be doing is showing their work, explaining their logic model, and pointing out where they are stuck. If there was merit in their approach, someone will help them out.
It is getting difficult to sift the wheat from the chaff.
It's called attempted outsourcing of your thinking. Wanting to figure something out but instead trying to find someone to do the work for you.
Chuck him a bone CB (and me for that matter). The COT data as I understand it, is a record of recent sales, making it irrelevant as a "here and now" indicator. Some folk use it as a trading indicator, following the movement of the Commercials, Specs (large and small) However, the information that you revealed is new to me and adds another facet to my understanding. It is, as you indicate in your reply, complex and discipline based.
Me, I'm a mechanic of sorts and have spent my time fixing aircraft and on the side, dabbled as a trader in the gold and silver mkts. Got fleeced like everyone else I have talked to. This led me on a quest for deeper understanding of things economic, other than the fundamentals and technical indicators.
It is a struggle trying to figure out how to make a living out of this, as owning gold and silver, on their merits alone, doesn't provide the weekly bacon. Investing in any other asset that might provide a return on investment, at this juncture, seems the height of folly. Who can one entrust with ones money if even Sovereigns are folding? Certainly not the Sachs (and all namesakes) of the world. Certainly not hedge or mutual funds, whose managers can halt redemptions at whim. Certainly not in the overvalued DOW or S&P, superannuation funds or property. Where to look, is the question.
You on the other hand seem steeped in the market and have a deep understanding of the politics and complexity of it, as your posts indicate. You have a grasp of what seems to be your discipline or alternatively have an extraordinary ability to ferret out crucial information that gives you insights as to what those pulling the strings are up to or may be up to.
It's not like you are sounding cocky CB. I have subscribed to other sites where the complaints of old hands has been the same: There is too much pabulum as posts, detracting from the nitty gritty. We are all guilty of that.
However, the question from the other member searching for answers, was a valid one and was an opportunity for you or others to post a reply that wasn't denigrating or dismissive. ie not pap.
Perhaps, as another has suggested, his question should have been more directed: Where do you find this shit? How do you find it? Do you need a university course or is this trading acumen and experience?
There is limited information about this in the forum section, so perhaps the ZH Team can add an educational section.
Come on Cheeky, the guy is drowning and you didn't even throw him a cork. At least give him some directions and encouragement such as "Keep swimming pal but swim to that bouy" not "Fuck off, you are in the wrong ocean, you dumb shit". The quest for honest markets can't be achieved by leaving the windows to it draped with blackout curtains.
Not all is in criticism. Thanks for that link above. It has been most helpful and when I grasp the full import of the message, will add to my understanding, for which I thank you.
Al.
+1
Double post, see below.
Sachs is one smug prick. This paints the picture. The South Park Smug Farting Intellectuals.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UdmYInXplY&feature=related
Let's not forget it was hubbard who penned the genius solution to the housing crisis in the wsj indicating a refi at 5 percent for everyone. Who knows what's worse the fact that he heads up the earth institute which has miraculously disappeared from his intro or that he was instrumental in the russia debacle. He is the essence of the washington consensus.
He WAS the essence of the washington consensus.
Sachs' tell was the way he clutched that empty glass.
Agreed. Even if you had the volume off, one could see that he sipped from his empty cup one too many times.
Sachs is a rent-boy
Thanks TD
Your pitbull tenacity is an inspiration.
Never give up - never.
What a great video. Hendry articulates his points very clearly and with considerable charm.
I thought he comes off as kinda gay. If that was an 09 interview then he lost his nuts on bonds.
He did get clipped by that bond play/hedge... he readily admits both winners and losers, as any good fund manager should.
I like Hendry's objectivism - he took the lessons of that bond play and found winner trades in '09/'10 on the other 'side'. Many old-school fund managers could never reverse their play/mistake because they or their firm are 'married' to certain idealogies and positions.
I think hedge fund managers are 1000% more honest & objective than banks/brokers/fin. press. You won't find many idealogical/political princes among the hedgies, but at least they are not selling garbage to their "clients" and then taking the other side of the trade...
Oh Snap!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG3PMbk0fp8
as an alum, i was embarrassed by sachs. this was not the caliber of professor i dealt with while i was there.
just sayin....they are not all stupid or co-opted at Columbia. To the contrary, they tend to be far more realistic and cynical than your average ivy league professor.
roar lion roar.....and eat sachs.
Oh come on....Sachs has ALWAYS been a corporate shill and pig.
ALWAYS....
be that is it may, the public face of Columbia is Prof. Sachs at this point. Oops, Sachs, any relation to our most loved Squid? (hmmmm...) But getting back to the point, just like the much maligned and derided tranny porn gentleman at the SEC, if Prof. Sachs (flyweight) is allowed to remain at Columbia it reflects on their lack. But as Columbia is a haven for disinfo (its a University and an Ivy League School as well), I expect he was sent to do exactly as he did.
Isn't Joe (I too can be bitch-slapped by Hugh Hendry) Stiglitz also from Columbia? If so, a dangerous trend, no?
Sachs is way out his league with Hendry. Kind of like Eric Sprott or John Embry taking on the Jon Nadler and Jeff Christian types of the gold world. No contest.
You mean Jon "I Do Not Debate Bullion Bulls" Nadler?
The man is as much a coward as he is a disingenuous liar. It is clear on which side of the integrity divide he falls --- and that is NOT on the good side.
Don't feel bad:
imagine if you went to Harvard and Princeton, like me, and
had to suffer the legacy of Summers and Bernanke
Harvard is by far the worst-
ground zero for the ponzi class
as for Sachs, one of the most amazingly incoherent "academic" papers I ever read was Sachs' whitewash of the bankers who looted Argentina in the 2001-2 crisis.
I hate to pile on the bad news but Sachs is definitely a product of Harvard. He recieved his B.A., M.A. and Ph. D. all from Harvard. At age 29 Sachs became the youngest tenured, full professor of economics at Harvard in 1983.
Yar, here thar be monsters, laddies.
Mr. Yeats once told me the "center cannot hold." I fears thar be no centre left at-all.
Let us change the homily on our coin and currency from "In God we Trust" to "Every Man for Himself"
Sacks was pwnd.. I loved the death clutch on the cup.. So very ironic that it neither half full nor half empty.. Just EMPTY..
Wikipedia on Sachs:
He has authored numerous books, including The End of Poverty and Common Wealth, both New York Times bestsellers. He has been named one of Time Magazine's "100 Most Influential People in the World" twice, in 2004 and 2005.
The End of Poverty? ROTFLMAO. Translation: Flaming Libtard.
The very same Time magazine selected Fed's the Goblin-in-chief as the man of the year.
Remember ? What a coincidence !:))
read "Luce; His Time, Life, and Fortune" if you want to understand the world view of its founder. you may never pick up a copy of any of those magazines again.
I discovered the Economist in high school, over 30 years ago. Haven't picked up a copy of Time (except at a doctor's office) since.
Those who cannot do, teach.
Academia is the one profession in which someone can have a total lack of common sense and still be successful.
A total lack of common sense is a requirement.
And rarely, but very rarely amazingly useful.
And those who cannot teach, teach gym, or run the Fed.
If I was professor Sachs and had just endured the preceding bitchslap, if I had a smijen of integrity, I would be lying on the floor sobbing 'im sorry, stop..im so sorry. please stop mr. hendry, just stop.., i wont teach any more keynesian economics..'
So is Hugh one of the evil CDS speculators? At 2:33 he says, "But Greece and the way that we're pricing the sovereign CDS..." in a way that makes me think he is pricing CDS directly.
Jeff Suchs is a douchebag.
"The bums will always lose! Do you hear me, Lebowski? The bums will always lose!"
Thank you, Mr. Duke.
Let's just call that Junk.
Oh for chrissake, I am so sick of someone always having to start in on the jews.
You wold have no problem with talking about Chinese,Italian,Russian,Germans in critical light. But you are afraid to criticize those who've got the real power.
The first word I've heard of Jews in this thread was from you, moron.
Do you read these threads with the thin skinned sensitivity to perceive what you think is the slightest slur to your favorite racial minority?
This says more about you and your neurotic racial perceptions than what was communicated.
I suspect MOST of the people who are here could care less about whether the criminally incompetent individual (or individuals) are Jewish, Christian, Moslems, or Satanists. Religion nor Ethnicity is NOT why the world is facing the serious problems that are dragging us in a downward spiral.
Criminal Behavior that is not being addressed by our corrupted governments is the most pressing problem.
Wake up to the real world, stupid.
The individuals who are in the power positions, if you put them into one huge group, and then divided them up by religion and enthicity, would probably cover every major (and quite a few of the minor) religions and enthicies in the world. Their religion or ethnicity is not the issue.
Whats happening to our world, and our societies today is very much more about criminal and immoral behavior than it is about any kind of racial or religious activity.
I sincerely hope, after the CRASH, that more rational individuals step to the front to rebuild.
I don't have high expecations of that, but that's the pipe dream.
Feeling stupid yet? That's OK, neither does Sachs...
+10
Your comment is stupid and unfounded. The individuals who are in the power positions would cover every major and quite a few of the minor religions and ethnicities in the world.
How could that not be true? Nearly all groups have power positions.
Zimbabweans having power positions do not beget an influence in this crisis.
It is known that commonly, on websites, US citizens like to imply that Zimbabwe is for something in this crisis.
They are nothing. They are irrelevant.
As to the US power positions compositions, doubtful you will find a Muslim in the mix, an atheist, the few black people there are just ethnical tokens.
The US citizens are human beings. Does not mean that all the humanity is responsible for the US errings.
Your first and second last paragraphs contradict each other. You clearly have not researched the names at the top of the administration and the agencies involved in the Great Ponzi. The Scotus and government Finamcial regulatory agencies are clearly biased towards one very small minority. Even the FBI and Mxx (Liz Birnbaum resigned this week though).
For not questioning this peculiar demographic oddity. I junk you.
My post referring to the jews was a reply to a post from Belrev where he attacked the jews. Belrevs post attacking the jews somehow has mysteriously disappeared since I replied to it. I did not think a post could be removed or edited after a reply had been made on ZH. Apparently I was mistaken.
Belrev -
Your village called; they're missing their idiot. Please return immediately.
I think if it hits a certain number of junks, it gets removed. I noticed a Cheeky comment that got junked, removed. It was in no way offensive.
Belrev, you want to troll? Be creative. At least say something offensive that is unique or clever. You wasted pixels and our time reading it. Bet you ain't got the juice to say something really funny or smart, do you?
Maybe you are correct about posts being removed if they are junked a certain number of times. It sure made me look like a fool, or even more of a fool than usual, because if you review the thread it appears that I start raving about jews with no reason, when in fact I was responding to the idiot who went on an anti-semitic rant.
The poster David did not DOD. Anyone can look at the thread and see that more folks than you were responding to something that is no longer there. Ready, fire, aim. It's all good, I've done it before too. I would like to see David retract or apologize, but that seems to be more than folks are up to these days.
I was thinking as I wathced my man Hendry friggin anihilate this little freak wha tit like when I was a teenager.
You see I grew up in fairly tough environment and went to a very tough and nasty school where each girl could look forward to prostitution as a career and guys could look forward to selling pot.
Anyway, as part of the regular school day I took it upon myself and a couple of my buddies to rid the halls of the dweebs. You see these scurrying little freaks created no value, no welath, no ideas, no revenue for us so they needed to dealt with as they took up precious oxygen in the hallways.
Anyway, we alwyas felt the best solutionn for them, and the the fairest, was to giv ethen 2 options.
1. Become a overnight resident of the lockers in the gym.
2. Pay a ransom which was used to buy lunch.
Now the smart ones actually took the locker treatment since giving cash guaranteed conitual abuse for the rest of the year.
Anwyay, as I watched the clip I was thinking - Christ I wonder if that was the little pecker we used to pick on. You know what I think it was. I can't be sure since apparently he was well schooled unlike me. But man does he look like this guy we tortured for severla years.
That cup clutching tipped me off.
Fear not the days of bullying will come back. That lib pansy era we live in will end soon enough. Long live the locker brigade.
You need a good curb stomping.
I hope that was performance art and not real, to make a point.
Your post affirms that you spent the majority of your time in the halls.
Wanker extraordinaire.
Fortunately, we have MMA and BJJ schools for kids now. Consequently, people like me will teach these dweebs to strangle your children unconscious and violate them in the lockerroom. Maybe just for sport. They'll stop when your son is wearing a dress.
Trav wins.
was that a piece of performance art, or are you really that much of a moron? you are a real internet toughguy! mogul, hangyourself.
Let's face it- when Athens had the Olympics you knew the gig was up. The name PIGS has been around forever. Milton Friedman said the euro is toast in 10 years specifically because of countries like Greece not generating any GDP. Goldman Sachs knew this. The Greek government knew this- way before 10 weeks.
I literally could have outjuked that guy- he is so devoid of facts and never countered any argument with a comment that made me confident that he knew Greece would not default. The Financial Times lady was even more coherent- not acting flabberghasted at his ineptitude.
Mediocrity and groupthink.
+1 ... This is the part I find so amazing -- THEY GENERATE NO GDP! When all the bobbleheads and political officials keep pretending to do a "bailout", it's hard to take them seriously: THERE IS NO GDP. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO GET GDP. THE FUTURE HAS NO SUGGESTION OF GDP.
Good Lord, are these adults? WTF! No GDP, no discussion of GDP, so let's spend more money in celebration of a DECLINING GDP.
None of these "plans" are serious. They are all a joke. On us.
They probably have one of the highest "under the table " GDPs with many working for cash and not paying taxes, and the rich not declaring near as much as they make.
I agree that the "under-the-table" may be one of the highest (as a percentage of national GDP), but that goes to the point: The nation cannot use those transactions to pay debt.
Greece, like most nations, merely represents a massive fiscal divide: Public spending WAY beyond any conceivable public revenue. That's structural, and widening, with a MASSIVE feedback loop.
All these other discussions are moot. Yet, "Educrats" and public officials don't even talk about that, as they throw around hundreds of billions. Amazing.
These people tie their own shoes?
Maybe it was the remark about the shoes. Maybe, someone here actually has trouble in that regard. Otherwise, how do we account for being junked? LOLs
+1. Nice job.
The plan appears to be to pick the socialist countries clean. There are government owned businesses and other assets that will be privatized at a very good rate.
For example, look at France. You've got their share in Areva, Airbus, etc. Those are quality businesses that could be bought for a song if France doesn't change course. Give them 2-3 years. French default likely means the end of the French ideal of the "perfect" society.
If a socialized country tries to limp along without initiating a significant structural change, the profits of these government owned entities will be re-directed to social programs. These societies will "eat their seed corn". Government owned enterprises could well wither on the vine.
They are in serious trouble no matter which way they go.
That's why the plan will work. It's so easy to double or even triple or QUADRUPLE NO GDP.
Sach should have responded that Hendry is selling his positions (talking his book), *that* biases Hugh's opinion, While Sachs is an unbiased expert merely looking at the numbers, trends and history. That would have been a powerful retort, but instead he took his bitch-slapping and complained about how rough Hugh was...Sachs was verbally kicked in the sack on live TV.
Sachs has a book, too - that the World Bank and IMF can "cure" poverty by dumping drugs and food on them. He's been repaid handsomely for his endless lobbying.
And his school has funneled many people into those institutions that have in turn donated blood money to Columbia.
Intellectuals are responsible for the consequences of their ideas. He's over his eyeballs in blood.
nailed, oh yes - nailed.
F-ing A.
Word.
Excellent Retort
Hitting nails on the head your hobby?
If Sachs would have tried that, the heavens would have opened up on him. Hendry would simply ask for an explanation of Sachs' comments. If Sachs did not step deeper into the "kill zone", he would have really looked amateur; naive and unsure of himself. If he tried to offer up examples of Hendry's "book" he would have placed himself is serious trouble as his "unbiased expert" analysis would have been displayed for all to see.
Sachs is and always will be a waterboy.
How true Miguel. I commend you on your thinking instead of continuing with the mindless litany of "Hendry, manly god among men, Sachs wimpy do-nothing doo-doo head professor."
I posted on this once already, and I'm absolutely sure I'm about to get my face flamed off and have my have my comment junked by every acolyte on this blog, but Tyler is still whiping the poor old Hendry vs. Sachs horse so here it goes;
Yes, Jeffery Sachs is one more smug bastard. Yes, he does look like he could use a good punch in the mouth, BUT he is a reformed former neo-classical economist of the Austrian school. Jeffery Sachs choked out hyper-inflation in Boliva using austerity cuts, shock therapy, and neo-liberal economic policy prescriptions while Hendry was still in high school. Before Hendry ever got hired at his first hedge fund Sachs was in Russia cramming austerity measures and neo-liberal privatization down the former communists throats.
Sachs's conversion to a more Kenesyian outlook and his debt-relief activism seems to date back to around the start of the millenium. Sachs is a controversial figure and reviled by many on the left and the right, but to dimiss him as a do-nothing book writing professor, especially concerning the issue of sovereign debt crisises and economic policy is foolish. Hugh Hedry is a very rich man who as far as I know has never suffered through a sovereign debt default or seen its effects first hand. Furthermore I suspect he goes on air to talk his book. (Why wouldn't he?) Don't mistake Hendry's aggression and disrespect toward's Sachs as superior reasoning. If Hendry occupies the moral and intellectual high ground why would he need to resort to an ad hominem attack?
Also, I respect Mr. Hendry's modest roots, but when our dear Mr. Durden suggests that Sachs get an "honest job like his parents" is he suggesting that Jeffery Sachs find employment taking speculative risks with other people's money and charging a 2% management fee win or lose plus 20% or more of earnings like Mr. Hendry?
Flame away group thinking ZH'ers!
Also here is a skeptical piece explaining the complicated bio and various idealogical affiliations of the professor.
http://www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Sachs.html
My complaint against Sachs is singular: How will Greece pay back its debt?
Rather than answer the question, we get the unsupported assertion that he doesn't see a problem with "in a few years" Greece starting to pay back its debt.
Really? How?
He has no answers. Instead, he says "don't get excited". Really? Why not? Will Greece be able to pay back its debt under *any* scenario?
(The answer is "no".)
There is no coherent argument here whatsoever. His assertion is intellectually bankrupt. Sadly, he presents himself as if he has no idea he's making unsupported assertions (which he is).
I do not contend that Hendry's assertion that Greece's debt is unsustainable and default is the best course of action is wrong, I just wanted to say there are other options besides immediate and total default, and the Greeks need not repay thier national debt, they merely need to figure out a credible way to service their debt. Does the US ever intend to repay its debts? Of course not, never. Federal Reserve Notes are IOU's based on debt so if the Treasury ever paid off all of the United States' debts we would have no more money.
Yes, that's probably where Sachs was headed: A credible way for Greece to service its debt.
Unfortunately, no, that's not possible. There is no sane path for Greece to service its debt. They can talk about "restructure" (i.e., "mini-default"), but no, that won't work either. Whatever Greece pays now, it will be able to pay *far less* going forward. Do I hear any assertion to the contrary?
Even with this "mini-default" (that I assert the creditors won't like/may not accept), Greece will see *increasing* liabilties going forward -- not decreasing. There is simply no scenario by which "fantasy magical thinking" is possible.
That's all it is: Fantasy Magical Thinking. That's cute, and fun, but hardly respectable coming from someone that fancies himself as discussing the issue.
That's because it's not about the issue (it rarely is anymore): It's about the Biggest Brains doing Central Planning where they convince themselves in their hubris that all the little people would be "saved" if they were merely given more power to centrally plan everyone else's lives. So, Sachs want to throw more money at it (making Greece's liabilities worse).
(As an aside, to answer your question, no, the US will never repay its debt either, and will default by 2012. What Sachs fails to understand is that ponzi doesn't go forever, and he can't understand that the ponzi is over. His life and paycheck is so invested in the ponzi that it's "crazy talk" to suggest post-ponzi.)
No argument here. I'm more or less in agreement with everything you said.
My beef was with ZH and the comment section echo chamber. In the TV segment I saw a trader who was talking his book (99.9% chance) launch a ruthless unwarranted ad hominem attack against a person who happens to be a professor with far more experience concerning sovereign debt crisis and defaults than himself. I certainly didn't see anything that warrants the ZH cannonization of Hugh Hendry. Mr Hendry may not be wrong but he certainly was extremely flippant about sovereign default and it's consequences for the general public. While Hendry may be correct I certainly don't think the highly experienced Sachs is an idiot for being a little more circumspect about the whole sovereign default, 'purge the system' thing even though that kind of talk really excites the Zero Hedge fan base. That is all.
And, you do bring up a good point/complaint, for which I am sometimes guilty: Inane comments without content, "piling on", and continuation of a mere populist wave.
I agree with you that populism is quite often stupid, and dangerous (we're talking about behavior by mobs). I'm not a populist. However, it happens that in some rare cases I side with the mob -- in this case, I side with citizenry outrage against Wall Street (whom I assert is fleecing the people). Strange that libertarians and marxists are in agreement on that, and I'm neither. ;-)
Last, I salute you in that you take a strong position, articulate it, defend it, and support it with real content. I learn, and I think more, reading comments like yours. I agree with you that I'd like more comments like yours. I'm in a very dark place at present regarding respect for "educrats", but there are some I admire. For example, IMHO Steven Keen is an outstanding Economics Professor (in the truest sense), working and behaving as I expect an academic to work and behave.
ZH comment section is not an echo chamber at all. In fact I'll disagree with everyone and everything right here right now. QE runs a course it ends. You're forced to pull a 1998 as russia would call it or pull a ship gold out at 22 an ounce import it back in at 32 an ounce or the great gold price gouge of 1935. This massive sudden currency devaluation is going to take place very quickly withing the next 2 months at the oustide.
Problem is it WON"T work. It won't work because you can only pull these stunts on a single isolated economy. When they try to pull a 50 to 60 percent rapid devaluation by flushing a couple trillion down states and 401ks throats they will be doing it with the worlds RESERVE currency. It will set off an avalanche inside of a shit storm underneath a maelstrom with a vallhalla rising up it's ass dressed in an armagedon of unintended consequences. They'll immediately concede defeat try to put out the amero get thier NUTS chopped off with rusty hedge clippers, try to pull SDR's and carbon credits out, shit twice and die.
That is all.
Of course,
but any academic can say '...I see risk...*' That doesn't get us anywhere. So many of these talking heads hedge and insure everything they say with some heavy-duty ass-covering. To me, that makes them part of the problem not part of the solution.
The few guys like Hugh Hendry get respect for at least sticking their necks out and calling it as they see it.
* I see 'risk' making a BLT, but i still know what to do to make one, and am -er- courageous enough to go for it. If I were a mere academic, I would prompt someone else to make it for me, and if he cocked it up, I would disown him/her.
When Bernanke's academic 'genius' fails him and the whole aedifice comes crashing down, Helicopter Ben will claim the world didn't revolve like it was supposed to (certainly not his fault).
I don't have much sympathy for Sachs; he seemed to be on that programme for his own vanity and wasn't intending to bring anything heavy or meaningful. Interesting to see if he learns from that experience.
While correct in his forecast Hendry said gold would fall relative to the USD when, at the moment, gold seems to be decoupling from all fiat currencies, showing its true value as Honest Money and a true safe-haven store of wealth.
Perhaps Hendry was refering to the post-Lehman trauma that forced PMs to sell any liquid assets they could to cover redemptions.
I saw a clip once where he said "I was wrong on the commodities" and "I got the commodities wrong". I do not really know what period of time he tried to... time nor do I know if he included gold in commodity definition.
Just throwing it out there.
The interview was Jan of 09, and I don't believe he was looking that far out when discussing his contrarian/anti-contrarian positions of the moment. Listen to it again at 5:30 in the clip.
Tyler, I'll be honest, while I somewhat agree with Hugh, in the news night interview all he offered were assertions that he was right because he had money in the markets, and ad hominem attacks on his opponent. I'm going to need a little more than that before I go shouting his name from the roof tops.
It is my impression that at this point, the Brits are much less inclined to the kind of mealy mouthed politically correct flapdoodle that passes for public discourse here in the U.S. Anyone who is more aware of what is going on over there feel free to correct me.
Well said. Like Most of us here (ZH), we are waking up, and getting pissed.
Hendry has acknowledged he is a bit rough. It is just I think he learned from first couple of sentences who Sachs really was.
Hendry is also the kind of character that does not consider it worth while to argue with idiots, that is just a wast of time.
He just beats them up. In a way I find that both epistemologically and ethically OK.
You do not mess with Scots, just ask Groundskeeper Willie...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twEWOAwlXD4
Well, do listen to the January 2009 interview where Hendry nails it all. It does make his opponent in yesterday's video look ridiculous with the assertion nobody was talking about Greece just a few weeks ago. January 2009, Hendry was talking about what is now happening.
Yes, thank you for your sanity. Please see my remark above.
Sachs has a worthless do-gooder column he writes in Scientific American every month. Its filled with crazy nonsense such a more foreign aid to Africa. And to think they don't have :the amateur scientist or mathematical diversions anymore but they have room to give this bozo a soap box. Its the politicization of science (seems they have some sort of "scare piece" written by staff on climate change every month).
I cancelled my subscription to SciAm several years ago when they decided to become political and every other article was about global warming.
AMEN! I got a sub for Christmas and went off on a rant about that shit. Happy birthday Jesus. I toss every mag into the recycling. I'm not all bad.
They should rename that rag "Alchemy of the Democrat party monthly".
I guess they went the way of the Economist, which suddenly became crappy a few years back.
It's understandable that SciAm has been completely co-opted.
Now that just about all profitable investment in R&D has been crowded out by our fiscal insanity, most scientists are either direct servants of the state, indirect servants in academia, or slaves to the FDA and other agencies.
Like hell we're supposed to be satisfied with the scientific "progress" of the last decade.
I'm sorry to say, but that's not a bug - it's a feature.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/22072/
Buiter lays out the game plan for the financial elite:
sequential orchestrated "sovereign debt crises" to be used as the smoke screen for profitable shorting and fiscal consolidation (endless bank bailouts, tax breaks for rich and reduced social safety net and higher taxes for everybody else).
Do you really think that Greece (just for one) isn't in a sovereign debt crisis, or that it wouldn't need to reduce its deficit to under 10% if it weren't for the financial elite? Great Buiter-content, though: thanks for the link.
re: http://www.cfr.org/publication/22072/
Risks of contagion, OMG. It's already spread...everywhere it matters.
I have an enourmous man-crush on Hugh Hendry righ now. Huge.
+1. The guy os brilliant and incredibly self-effacing. Just like our President :-}
Join the club. No touching.
Spring. A bit of bromance in the air?
Seen enough pompous fucking cultural and intellectual elite in my academic career. Walked on eggshells around them for 10 years.
Bury them, TD!
From Jim Sinclair Mineset. If you're not already reading it, you should start.
The News TodayPosted: May 28 2010 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: May 28, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Filed under: In The News
Dear CIGAs,
David Rosenburg, an investment analyst out of Toronto, was featured on Bloomberg today until he made a gold price prediction of $3000 which he classified as most likely too conservative.
The interviewer made the mistake of asking him why. His answer was immediate and surgical.
You should have heard their attempt to flush him. All you could hear was David, David, David, as they tried to shut him up.
Well done David.
I saw that and tried to find a link. no luck. anybody else ???
Dude:
No Google skills? Rosenberg Bloomberg Gold - took me less than 5 seconds.
Sachs is emblematic of the AcademiTurd that infects policy decisions at all levels of American govt.
Sitting on there Saville Row-covered asses is leather chairs on campuses (campi?) payed for with hot FedRes money that is recycled through the system by convincing kids to waste several years salary (if they can get a job) on a college "education". Disgusting.
First rate statist fops and dandies are what idiots like Sachs and Krugman are.
+1111
There are excellent and useful academics (think engineering, agriculture, biology, physics, etc.)...
Then there is the idiot class of propagandists...
"Yes we can!"
most academics are a hostage to the system as the regulators. i.e. there is an academic capture as well as a regulatory capture as well.
Academic Capture. Thanks for that. I'm a professor at a state school. I see it everywhere. I could go on for hours about this. Needed the term for some shorthand.
$50 Trillion - say what?
I think my water just broke.
OUTFRIGGINSTANDING post TD!
Check out Sachs's bio. Not that I am looking to defend him but he is not all that bad...
He has authored numerous books, including The End of Poverty and Common Wealth, both New York Times bestsellers. He has been named one of Time Magazine's "100 Most Influential People in the World" twice, in 2004 and 2005.
You almost feel bad for shills like Sachs who have to defend absurd ideas like that of Greece being able to grow its way out debt while employee wages go down and prices remain too high because the government can't devalue or print currency.
Sachs has no skin in the game. Fuck him and his useless viewpoints. Every VC and entrepreneuer in the world understands this concept, and Hendry was 110% correct with his snide comment, which is why Jeffrey "I Have No Ball" Sachs got so pissy about it. Truth hurts, bitch.
to:Chupacabra:
Don't get it twisted:
Sachs is "all-in"
Hendry was wrong in a sense
Sachs has dedicated his life to the promotion of the corrupt international bankers.
All his "academic" work advances the interests of the "Washington Consensus"...Bernanke, Summers, Rubin and the boys at GS, Citibank and the IMF.
Think Pete Petersen, et al.
Interesting EURO chart :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Is Sacks the woman in the video? I'm confused. This guy is gay by the way. Nothing wrong with gay people, just saying he likes it from behind. No big deal. Just saying...
his romanticism of the hedge-fund industry is total BS ... he's also been urinating on Gold for years - - never seeing that it could rise along-side the dollar. For the rest - he's fairly astute...and at least not as blatantly criminal as Sachs..
Keynesian economics ..... FAIL
80% of Economic Research Grants Come From...
The FED
Professor Suchs is just doing his job. Collecting as much research money for Columbia as possible. When the majority of the money comes from the Fed and treasonous douches like the Rockefeller and Ford foundations...
Well you talk the party line until the edifice falls off of the Politburo...
Economics is NOT a Science
It is barely a social studies and desperately in need of academic reform. Few of its hypothesis can be empirically tested. When they attempt to, their mathematics and models are laughable...
Economics does posses two laws which can be empirically tested: Law of Demand and the Law of Diminishing Returns...
Too bad Economist consistently fail to pay attention to the only things in Economics that actually work...
The Science Was Kicked Out With Population Biology Centuries Ago
How else can you model exponentially compounding interest and debt AND infinitely expanding economies (3-5% from here to eternity?) on a planet of finite resources...
Much like Professor Suchs, the very premise is an absurdity...
Suchs is a Professor of Communication and Rhetoric, Not Economics
Most "Economists" are propagandists first and foremost. Believe in their religion... For which Suchs demonstrates an insufferably stuffy talent through that Michigan twang...
Anyone else seen this video of Hugh Hendry speaking with Marc Faber, Nassim Taleb and others at the Russia Forum 2010? Hugh launches into a mini-rant about ten minutes in, and continues with sharp comments as opportunities present.
http://2010.therussiaforum.com/news/session-video3/
That is an excellent video. Nassim Taleb also had some important things to say. I still like Faber, but I think he's "jumped the shark" a bit.
If I were Sachs I would ask Hendry if he had CDS on sov debt and how much he stood to gain from a credit event.
Bingo. See my remark above.
Hugh is honest, prescient and incredibly smart.......
The term "FuckTard" was invented for Sachs...