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Rydex Nasdaq 100 Bull/Bear Ratio At Highest Since Dot Com Collapse
And for another confirmation that the Nasdaq is now at the same extreme "irrational exuberance" levels last seen during the dot com crash, we read courtesy of sentimenttrader.com that the Rydex Nasdaq 100 bull/bear ratio is now the highest it has been since just before the dot com crash. "Traders in the Rydex mutual fund family have poured into the Nasdaq 100 long fund at the expense of the inverse fund on the same index. These traders now have 34 times more money invested in the long fund vs. the inverse fund, which is the highest ratio since the bubble days of 2000 and early 2001." And what is scarier, is that unlike during the dot com, investors are using leveraged methods to express their exuberance: "The Bull / Bear Ratio for the leveraged funds isn't quite as extreme...but it's close (on a relative basis)."
And some more observations on irrational exuberance v2
Taking a cue from the Nasdaq 100 chart to the left, this one shows a composite Bull / Bear Ratio for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJIA (we don't have this chart on the site yet). The ratio neared 3.0 on Thursday, meaning there's almost 3 times more assets in the long index funds than the inverse index funds. Since 2004, only two other times approached this level (late February 2004 and November/December 2004). Other times the ratio approached this level, stocks backed off in the month(s) ahead.
Hopefully some of this generation's traders recall what happened when optimism, and outright stupidity, reached such extreme levels back in 2001.
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Yeah.. but VIX.X very low relative to that time..
Yet.. highest insider selling in history!
Very mixed bag.. now with $US rallying and the trade deficit dropping.. more optimism to fuel the fire BEFORE it burns THROUGH THE FLOOR!
(d)
sensing severe distress in bears who write here, I have been following since fall, if any long-times bear throws the towel sell everything.
like that Nic lenoire guy or (gal), who was calling tops from 1165, as far as I have folllowed
there will many suckers jumping off bond zeppelin. Not all will buy silver coins. Pimco appreantly big loser in the new normal: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/pimco-s-250-billion-total-retur...
Ursa baybee
How can this market continue to go higher despite equity funds showing steady outflow? The Russell 2000 has gone straight up over the last couple months. Baffling.
(d)
question: does that cover ETFs?
dont know myself just found this online: If they dont, and ETF inflows significant vs mutual, then this 'nth week of outflows' headline, I read every week here is disinformation, and a trap for bears.
U.S. equity ETFs received a boost from investors in September, attracting $19.6bn in assets and contributing to strong inflows to State Street Global Advisors SPDR and Invesco PowerShares funds, according to data from the National Stock Exchange.
SSgA’s $78bn S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the largest ETF in the U.S., posted $10.3bn in net inflows during the month. PowerShares’ QQQ (QQQQ) attracted $4.3bn in assets last month. Year-to-date, SPY has lost $7.9bn while QQQQ has attracted $2.6bn.
Those strong flows provide a sharp contrast, however, from the expected domestic equity mutual fund flows for September, analysts note. Those funds are expected to post net outflows, continuing a months-long trend of investors’ shunning the asset class for emerging markets and fixed income.
I believe that Robo and Harry truly see this market marching higher. I think they often have valuable perspectives so don't think piling on does much good. The value in this site is different perspectives on the issues. That said, I see things peaking out in Feb or March as there is a material slowdown that has taken root. The end of year always confuses because of the usual seasonal busy-ness in many retail businesses. But, I see a significant clampdown on spending that makes the level of bullishness in the charts shown completely unjustified. Maybe it is just uneven, and maybe it is just me...all possible, but I truly believe the economy has about hit stall speed, and all the market sees is the movement, right before that sickening feeling of the bottom falling out. Given the market is being propped up from many sources, perhaps we don't actually ever see reality catch up with fundamentals.
Agreed...year-end activity can be confusing with some selling to lock in losses and others re-allocating funds from one sector to another.
I think Robo enjoys poking people, but he's really just posting stocks after they've moved. He doesn't point out stocks that crater - it's a one-sided analysis. He'll post a chart of LULU but not of CWTR.
Harry has been outed as a professional troll. Really. He's here to do a study on "perma-bears" and their attitudes. So, he is not posting in good faith. He also has multiple avatars.
Are we going to stop printing money? Nope.
Anybody know what's up the increasing number of NYSE new lows the last few days? Which group is it? Can't be the banks since the group is engaged in a squeeze.
Lot of money in bond funds just starting to get hurt, needs to move over to stock funds ASAP. SurviveTheGreatInflation.com
We've got a long way to go on the NasDung. Tech is where the real money is invested and has been for years. Fight the trend if you wish. Inflation is on the side of much higher prices. MUCH higher.
http://www.screencast.com/users/dogismyth/folders/Default/media/2adb1b65...
well, in the upcoming hyperinflation will everything go up, even the nasdaq 100 stocks, i think :)
Hey!! Let's party like it's 1999!!!
http://tinyurl.com/29rnmaq