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Silver Plunges On China Slowdown Concerns, Dollar Short Covering

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In early trading, silver is down nearly 20% from Friday highs, and just under 15% from its Friday closing fixing, hitting just over $42 in a slide of $6 commencing just after 18:25 pm. The reason for the collapse is not immediately clear, although concerns of a Chinese slowdown and overtightening are rumored to have been among the culrpits. The circumstantial evidence is in the OZ pairs, with the AUDUSD which has long been a high beta proxy for China plunging in early trading as well. Oddly enough, gold has been spared most of the carnage in silver, and was down about 1% in early trading. Overall, this appears to be nothing more than a short covering episode in the USd provoked by nothing factual. We will keep an ear open for any incremental data to determine if there is any actual reason for the plunge, such as for example that the BOJ has suddenly decided not to pick up the baton in trillions of monetizations over the next few months, instead of just another bout of technical selling.

Silver:

And China-Dollar:

 

Here is Goldman providing some more color on the Chinese slowdown

April PMI readings suggest weaker growth...

Although the official NBS/CFLP and HSBC/Markit PMIs are supposed to be seasonally adjusted already, they both showed seasonality in their historical April readings (the seasonality in the HSBC/Markit PMI is a lot less consistent and significant than the official one). Considering the seasonal bias, the lower reading in the official PMI and unchanged reading in the HSBC/Markit PMI suggest manufacturing activity growth weakened in April.

...and lower upstream inflationary pressures

The latest reading of the Input Price sub-index (note this is a reference index which does not enter the calculation of the headline PMI), which is highly correlated with the sequential reading of PPI inflation (see Exhibit 4), suggests the latter is likely to show further moderation in April as well. At the same time, with the softening of food (especially vegetable) prices, we are likely to see a meaningfully lower CPI inflation reading as well, perhaps to around 5.0% yoy, down from 5.4% yoy in March.

We believe the underling growth momentum indeed has been trending down despite some data issues...

There have been some controversies regarding the relative reliability of the PMIs versus official “hard” data such as industrial production (IP) as a gauge of manufacturing activities. In March, the PMIs apparently were not strong considering seasonality (headline official PMI went up but much less than the rise in March data historically), but hard data almost across the board showed stronger growth than in January-February. We believe the difference might be the result of unstable seasonal factors in the PMIs and other data complications such as the Lunar New Year effects which often distorts monthly data within the first quarter of the year and changes to statistical standards in terms of official IP/fixed asset investment data (see China: March PMIs suggest activity growth continued to moderate, Asia Economics Data Flash, April 1, 2011 for further details) . Besides, the equal weighting methodology of the PMIs meant when small enterprises move differently from large companies, the PMIs would tend to reflect their changes more than hard data such as IP. Having said that, we believe the trend of the two PMI series is generally reliable and they have both been on a downward trend since reaching a peak in 4Q2010 and there is no clear sign of an imminent change to that trend yet. Within 1Q2011, growth in March probably had a rebound but it appears to be a temporary one.

...driven by continued policy tightening and increasingly prevalent power shortages and possibly a slowdown in exports growth

Our channel checks with commercial banks suggest their lending activities have been under continued pressure from regulators in April. At the same time, there have been increasing anecdotal information on the rise in the actual lending rate (commercial banks are free to charge interest rates above the official benchmark lending rate without a ceiling) as a result of the various quantitative controls. Apart from these conventional monetary tightening tools, the government also seems to be broadening the width of tightening by imposing additional administrative controls on investments in aluminum smelting and production in energy-intensive sectors as a result of the increasingly prevalent power shortage in the country which tends to slow domestic demand growth. Besides, the Export Order sub-index of the PMI has been falling rather quickly since the start of the year which deserves a high level of attention though so far it is somewhat at odds with other information such as our Global Leading Indicator which has been a reasonably good leading indicator of exports growth and it has not shown any meaningful softening.

There are no signs of an over-tightening as yet

Despite the softening of the PMIs, they both stayed clear of the 50% threshold and there has been no dramatic fall in other major economic indicators either. While the 50% threshold may mean something different in China than in many other countries as China’s trend level of PMIs appears to be higher, a slightly below trend level growth is what we would regard as appropriate given there is still a clear need for the Chinese economy to lower its level of inflation.

We expect this policy stance to be kept largely unchanged in 2Q2011 compared with 1Q2011 and the downward trend in activity growth and underlying inflation is likely to continue

We believe given the level of CPI and PPI inflation is still above the government’s comfort zone and activity growth appears to be holding up at a healthy level (yoy activity growth may actually rise further because of a low base in 2Q2010), the growth-inflation combination will mean policy makers are likely to continue to keep the policy stance comparable to 1Q2011 (not March, as the policy stance in January-February was much tighter than it was in March). More meaningful changes to the policy stance will likely come in 2H2011 as yoy CPI inflation is likely to start trending down as a result of a change in base and the expected sequential slowdown.

 

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Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:45 | 1226647 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

A large hedgie got a margin call.

That other chart above was what he used as a hedge.

More margin calls coming...more unknow products used as hedges to be revealed.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1226353 razorthin
razorthin's picture

41.55 - 42 is the soon to be generational low. Write it down.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:44 | 1226357 r101958
r101958's picture

Agreed Doc.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:44 | 1226358 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

No one answers at Tulving.....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:50 | 1226388 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Tulving might be bankrupt if they didn't hedge.  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:10 | 1226489 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Junked you accident.  I doubt Tulving sells what he doesn't have in stock so he would not be caught short. IMHO.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:31 | 1228272 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Hit it again, unjunk

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:44 | 1226359 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

No one answers at Tulving.....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1226360 godzila
godzila's picture

Interrestingly the USDCHF almost unchanged...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1226367 ArkOmen1
ArkOmen1's picture

What? Don't you all know? Rockefellers and Rothschilds get the first cut of the cake. They like to eat when nobody else even can. New World Order.... You and your financial machinations have been exposed! We are not your slaves! We will not be spooked out of our metals positions. We will buy more metals into the fucking dips from here to infinity until we win! And win we shall! Gold and silver... For freedom, and liberty!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:51 | 1226409 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Fool!  If this was a mistake it would have already retraced completely.

 

Silver>$17/oz is for suckers.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:11 | 1226494 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Silver less than 2X17 is for dreamers.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1226368 swissinv
swissinv's picture

holy shit - a good example why you got a be damn careful when trading on leverage!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1226369 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Last week all the big volume in silver was on sell-offs.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1226370 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Sheeple....think about it.  What are the chances that Cheeseball with the Clip-on tie hawking Gold and Silver on the infomercials was going to be right?

 

Once the Sheeple are all piled in, the gate is closed and shears are pulled out.  LMFAO!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1226385 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, shears will be pulled out soon on the sheeples in paper stocks and bonds. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226547 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Um, this will be relevant in perhaps a year or two when solicitations to sell the general public become anywhere near as numerous as offers to buy your gold or silver.  The latter massively outnumber the former at this point in time.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1226372 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Just how much does a 12 x 12 inch cube of gold dust weight?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MB9jb_zgwSM

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:49 | 1226376 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

I think I just heard the Silver Bears crapping their pants.

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 03:06 | 1228439 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

ohh. Soooo scary. Yawn. I need to make some coffee. Yawn.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1226379 covsire
covsire's picture

I think someone is really, really hoping to shake out a lot of weak to medium hands. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:47 | 1226382 RogueFit
RogueFit's picture

This Silver market is absolutely crazy.  For a market to be manipulated this easily is simply not a liquid market but instead the wild west.  

 

good Luck Amigos.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1226387 Catullus
Catullus's picture

The tick on silver is fun.  There's no liquidity in these electronic markets at this hour.   Let it come to you if you're buying physical.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1226390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

APMEX begging letter to everyone to sell them their PM's didnt work.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:54 | 1226408 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Idiots Top Ticked the market and paid $3 over spot.  Truly they are Dumb Fucks.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:48 | 1226391 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Already bouncing.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:53 | 1226403 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Big Clue was CAD last week.  Couldn't move higher against USD even with skyrocketing precious metals.  Astute investors noticed and pulled the shears out on the sheep.

 

Which precious metals dealer will soon be going bankrupt?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:50 | 1226404 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Silver market is very illiquid at this moment. The spread in my spot account is 26 cents, usually it is 5 cents but given that CME raised margin requirements the spot spread had to also increase.

No dollar rally going according to Kitco Ag has gained 2 cents due to the dollar losing value.

http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html

Asia is trading, my Forex account posts when any countries are on bank holiday, and they have not posted anything regarding bank holidays.

Just a correction in process that I started to see the signs of the Thursday before Easter and why I hedged my physical with a short in spot paper market.

Hype, speculation, misinformation, in the end the number is the number.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:53 | 1226405 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

sure glad i hedged on friday. If we are still here or even further down tomorrow into next, i'll have made some on the way down and hopefully on the way up! I'm still bullish guys, but all the negative talk on Friday made me think twice and hedged some. Don't be mad and me guys :|I'm still bullish like a bull on a fat cow!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:53 | 1226406 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-plunges-more-than-10-in-early-asia-trade-2011-05-01-1939320?link=MW_home_latest_news

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Silver prices fell sharply in early Monday trading in Asia, with the spot price plunging more than 10% in a matter of minutes, according to Kitco data. By 9:30 a.m. Sydney time (7:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern time), spot silver traded at $43.63 an ounce, recovering from below the $43 level earlier in the day. At one point early Monday, the price dove 12% within 11 minutes, according to Dow Jones Newswires, which put the intraday high at $48.15 before a plunge to $42.21. Some reports pointed to low volume, due to holidays in some markets Monday, as exagerating the move, and said the sharp drop pointed to a speculative move against the silver price. On the futures market, silver for July delivery was down 9.6% at $43.965.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:51 | 1226407 smeagol
smeagol's picture

finger hurting now from hitting that buy button.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:55 | 1226410 z123
z123's picture

I posted on friday that my 75 year old neighbor started buying gold and silver last week and as a result I went 100% cash and sold all my silver/gold, one user mocked men and said my neighbor didn't buy anything, glad I went 100% cash

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:22 | 1226755 dumpster
dumpster's picture

z123

 you had no silver but a promise ,

 

so you sold some paper for paper ,, good show ,,

any one who claims to buy silver and sell silver with paper is playing the fools game.

 

ten seats in a circle 100 guys dancing around ,, these is not fat fingers at work but fat heads

 

 

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:34 | 1228401 longorshort
longorshort's picture

Wow good on you.  First sane post here.  A profit is a profit, Amen.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:51 | 1226411 paladin
paladin's picture

LOL...LOL...LOL

everyone was saying to sell your silver.....LOL

Time at last to sell silver - Eric Janszen

April 29, 2011, iTulip

“The pigs get fat the hogs get slaughtered.”

Today I sold all of my remaining silver. Note the title: there is no question mark or other qualifying attributes to the assertion.

I bought silver for $4.25 in 2001 when the price averaged $4.36 for the year. At the time an ounce of gold cost 63 ounces of silver.

http://www.itulip.com/

 

even your brother in law could see this coming...LOL

pick up the silver mines after the dip....then buy more silver.....LOL

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:54 | 1226413 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Silver isn't gold, and the hedge/play isn't just interest rates.  It is currency replacement value. Oil is the potential foil for interest rate manipulations.  Oil is the real interest rates that the Central Banks deny.  Gold is real prices vs. worthless (or increasingly less worth) fiat currencies.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:37 | 1228406 longorshort
longorshort's picture

God you are a stupid blond.  Go put some clothes on.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:52 | 1226414 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Sell, Hell, I've been in since $20 and I am getting tempted to buy some more.....  If it drops through $40, I will pull the trigger!  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:52 | 1226416 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

This must be Obama's new Plunge Protection Team at work. He just reshuffled his administration didn't he?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:53 | 1226419 _Alekhine_
_Alekhine_'s picture

Just read this article on marketwatch and I think this provides clues as to what happened.

 

Silver prices fell sharply in early Monday trading in Asia, with the spot price plunging more than 10% in a matter of minutes, according to Kitco data. By 9:30 a.m. Sydney time (7:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern time), spot silver traded at $43.63 an ounce, recovering from below the $43 level earlier in the day. At one point early Monday, the price dove 12% within 11 minutes, according to Dow Jones Newswires, which put the intraday high at $48.15 before a plunge to $42.21. Some reports pointed to low volume, due to holidays in some markets Monday, as exagerating the move, and said the sharp drop pointed to a speculative move against the silver price. On the futures market, silver for July delivery was down 9.6% at $43.965.

 

I have a feeling JP Morgan has started to do their short-selling during off-peak hours. That way they can have much more of an impact on price.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:54 | 1226421 Al89
Al89's picture

Gold dropped to 1545 according to Finviz. Back to 1555 now. Sometimes things need to take a little step back before a big jump forward. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:56 | 1226423 TankWolf
TankWolf's picture

http://img560.imageshack.us/i/silver5minchart.jpg/

Retracement time people lets see how long this manipulation lasts, if silver takes back the 38.2% area which is also major support then you would think silver will take another run at $50. Unbelieveable really nothing has changed from Fridays close....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:56 | 1226424 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

Never seen such delusion/hopium on a thread.  I'll have my silver bug with a side of mint jelly.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226762 dumpster
dumpster's picture

Thunder Dome
 

many just call a thunder dome  fat head for short

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:55 | 1226426 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Don't want to provide misinformation my Forex account just posted that China will not be playing today they are out for Labor Day holiday - I guess the other Asian players decided to continue the Holiday game that started with Easter of larege moves when a big player is not around.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 02:36 | 1228410 longorshort
longorshort's picture

Good why dont you use the day off to fix your bloated ass profile.  Thanks.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:58 | 1226429 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

The road to $100 silver is supposed to be bumpy. This is the part where they put the fear of death into everyone who loves the silver story. They'll be much more to come. When silver is sitting at $100 they don't want the hoople heads to have any of it so they are going to try to drive them insane on the journey. This is part of the process the bankers go though before the endgame. Also if the Comex is busted do you think they will go out by letting the price go parabolic first. HELL NO. When the Comex goes tits up they will send the price plumeting with infinite naked paper shorts before they are forced to expose their true position. It will be their last chance to steal silver with their dollar privilages.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:07 | 1226474 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

+1 deadwood reference

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:59 | 1226433 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Sold a shitload of ZSL $11 puts on Friday.  Looks like they are worth $0 and I'm collecting the premium from some Idiot.  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:24 | 1226766 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I might be interested in your purchases if you tell me on the day you make them.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:57 | 1226438 AUD
AUD's picture

Here's an interesting article that you should read

www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=6768

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 19:58 | 1226439 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Here is Goldman providing some more color on the Chinese slowdown"

It's brown and stinks.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:01 | 1226443 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Apmex now offered a Greased Corncob with every $1,000 silver purchase.  Offering to pay spot + $7 on Corncobs.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:02 | 1226697 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

 

"Corn?  I don't remember eating corn!" -- You know we've all thought that while on the shitter...

Bankers can eat that lubricated corn on an Ipad chip after I shove the cob up their anal passage-way in order to buy some of their f'ing dip.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:17 | 1226750 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Do you troll-guys get paid for every post, or only when someone replies to you?

Could you mention my handle to your masters?  I could do this a lot better than you.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:01 | 1226444 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

this bitch is going for another plunge here by the looks of things, get your helmets on.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:12 | 1226490 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

As long as Major Kong isn't in the saddle.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:02 | 1226445 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Entirely possible silver continues its run next week.  I pity the fool that carries futures long against the cornered banksters.  How about when your fill is $1 under your stop.  Frickin ouch! 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:03 | 1226448 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Prechter called it.  Said it would touch nominal all-time high then crash.  Prechter is the man.  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1226508 notadouche
notadouche's picture

Prechter has been making this call since silver 25.  He's more like the broken clock

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:09 | 1226449 Nate H
Nate H's picture

silver plunges on china concerns?

well, thats clearly not the reason. i dont know the reason but its not that (gold is flat, SP futures are up, dollar is flat to slightly weak. This is 100% silver specific. Someone knows something or is playing games. Margin call? Hedge fund blowup? We might know eventhally.  I am longer than I'd like to be in SLV (but not long enough in physical, so it may be ok). Ive been expecting pullback for a while and still think we see $35 before $60, but we will see $60 eventually.

 

But risk off trade coming soon. I was just hoping when it happened that other things would go down as well as silver. Nightmare for me is stocks rally and silver sells crashes - unlikely but possible. I think it more likely they both come off hard - Austerity program in US lets us see other side of coin until the pain is too much - the QE3 - but there will be a break first.

 

*edit - I predict this thread will hit 1000 comments...;-)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:13 | 1226493 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Rumored 75% CME margin hike. Means nothing to me, Bernank didnt suddenly just get religion. Just as screwed as ever, nothings changed.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:35 | 1228294 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Even if he got 'religion' it Is far far to late to stop the s*** storm that is coming!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:04 | 1226451 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

That vaguely resembles the proverbial dip.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:04 | 1226456 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Spreadbetting spread was slightly above normal (3 cents) going down, reached 30 cents right at the bottom, then was as much as $1.50 when the price was recovering and pushing through the $43.50 area.

It's now back to 60 cents @ 1 am BST.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:05 | 1226462 bank buster
bank buster's picture

BTFD with both hands!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:04 | 1226464 bank buster
bank buster's picture

This will be short lived, imo.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:06 | 1226466 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's my fault. I bought my first ever precious metal purchase on Thursday. Gold will probably get ripped too as I bought some of that.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:08 | 1226480 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Don't worry.  You'll break-even in about 35 years.  LMFAO!!!!

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226507 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm not to worried. I hedged my physical with zsl. I'll buy more physical on the pull back.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:32 | 1227043 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

That is an expensive and inefficient hedge and you could have got the same protection for less and had more money in the game long silver if you had bought puts instead.

Level one options trading is open to anyone even in retirement brokerage accounts......buying puts and selling covered calls.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:18 | 1226516 doggings
doggings's picture

It's my fault. I bought my first ever precious metal purchase on Thursday. Gold will probably get ripped too as I bought some of that.

dont worry about it, seriously, the times its done this at previous "tops" all the way up when i'd just bought more, never more than a week or two before youre well up again.

sit tight, ignore these paid trolls and numpties, look back at just how fucking cheap it was when you bought..

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:06 | 1226470 PigmanExecutioner
PigmanExecutioner's picture

Why all the focus on silver? Is this their gateway metal in that if it breaks out, it could cause a domino situation in the commodity markets?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:08 | 1226475 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

"Why all the focus on silver?"...because everyone here has been hoarding it.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:15 | 1226498 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Because JPM is massively net short and can't deliver?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:19 | 1226533 PigmanExecutioner
PigmanExecutioner's picture

Did they inherit a large portion of this net short from the acquisition Bear Stearns? If so, they're protecting the government's backside, in that they gave JPM certain assurances in regard to future compensation, in the event some of these negative assets exploded.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:09 | 1226472 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

may day

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:30 | 1226573 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Bitchez

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1226581 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

back up to  $45.170 per kitco....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:08 | 1226476 paladin
paladin's picture

I rode SLW from 3.00 to 4.00 to 40.00

get ready to get back in the mining stocks.

ride them back up...sell them..buy more silver

LOL

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:11 | 1226483 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

There is not enough physical available!  The premiums are sky high and the

delivery of eagles are 3-4 weeks out.   I hope everyone buys other silver and

doesn't just pass on this opportunity.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:08 | 1226484 SilverFocker
SilverFocker's picture

Just checked the safe, no drop there all phiz holding fine. This shit is going to bounce like a big pair of tits on a beach vollyball court for the next few days maybe all month.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:15 | 1226510 Nate H
Nate H's picture

there is too a drop in your safes contents value. if you want to trade it into anything useful for human consumption (food, property, tools, guns, stuff) you can now buy about 12% less than you could 48 hours ago. Dont over rationalize. Sure your silver is still there but at least temporarily its value is sharply lower

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:24 | 1226546 doggings
doggings's picture

there is too a drop in your safes contents value. if you want to trade it into anything useful for human consumption (food, property, tools, guns, stuff) you can now buy about 12% less than you could 48 hours ago. Dont over rationalize. Sure your silver is still there but at least temporarily its value is sharply lower

you mean the imaginary nominal number they afix to the imaginary paper silver?

good luck giving a shit about that.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:55 | 1226861 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I have come to the conclusion that you can either see PM's this way - or not. It is so hard, perhaps impossible, for some to change perspectives from the $ denomiated world we have lived in all our lives.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:40 | 1226615 SilverFocker
SilverFocker's picture

well since I have been into Silver for a few years it will need to go back to around 15 bucks before any % loss....besides, I have guns, food, property, tools and a desire to use them all when needed.

Time to play the real game is soon approaching, is that rational enough?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:43 | 1226634 SilverFocker
SilverFocker's picture

well since I have been into Silver for a few years it will need to go back to around 15 bucks before any % loss....besides, I have guns, food, property, tools and a desire to use them all when needed.

Time to play the real game is soon approaching, is that rational enough?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:13 | 1226492 Beamerball
Beamerball's picture

Love the Silver move!  been waiting on this.  Gosh these things are dangerous.  This guy has nailed this move.   Thinking the USD is gonna firm big time.   Such a crowded trade

 

http://shortetflist.com/

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:12 | 1226497 NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

$4.00? Thats a pint. Back up the truck, I can drink like a motherfukca!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1226499 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

The CME (Jon Corzine) made 2 adjustments in the futures last week, please don't be a sheep and BTFD, this is all out war now and the PM's will bounce right back. No worries.

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/fi...?

 

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1226515 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Delivery bitches!!! 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1226502 A55H0LE_Lawyer
A55H0LE_Lawyer's picture

Re: Tracking Silver & Gold Prices

 

I've been using the Kitco iPhone app to track the gold/silver market, but I think I need to move to a more serious tool.  Bloomeberg is too expensive--are there reasonably accurate & timely ways to get prices online and on my iPhone? They don't have to be free, I don't mind paying value for value.  Thanks!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1226538 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

if all you're looking for is the price, silverprice.org keeps the current spot price updated well. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:18 | 1226983 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Netdania

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1226504 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

APMEX is selling 90% junk silver at 10 cents UNDER spot right now, for anyone buying.

This is a pretty quick snap back of the gold:silver ratio rubberband, temporary as it may be. It is very interesting to see the two charts above, particularly the timing: very interesting, indeed. Almost looks like a bank position from futures to forex(Commerzbank, what were you doing at 18:25 Sunday, hmmmm?).

Oh, if it were that easy to tell.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1226578 jomama
jomama's picture

nice find, thx

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:17 | 1226505 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

Perfect time to buy for reversals traders. Exhibitting a harmonic crab pattern right now on the 1hour and smaller time scales, and a harmonic gartley on the higher levels (Daily/4hour). 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:16 | 1226512 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

the spread is a serious bitch though... 62 cents right now. yeesh...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:26 | 1226555 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

lol...the spread is making me laugh

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:20 | 1226757 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

spread is already closing up. at 10 cents now (on FXDD). 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:14 | 1226506 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

Back up over 44.35 last time I checked...

DaddyO

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:15 | 1226511 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Wow Silver got smoked by the proverbial hammer.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

 

Time to BTFD!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:19 | 1226513 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

New silver short troll posters are about to go parabolic in 3 days from now.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:21 | 1226545 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

JPM has people going around NYC internet cafes handing out zh accounts with trolling instructions and upfront hiring bonuses.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:24 | 1226558 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

do they pay in silver?? if so, then i may be up for it...digusting, yes, but for physical silver....maybe.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:34 | 1226589 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

It is not much money.  You have to run 23 avatars to make a decent living.  That is fucking hard work my man.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:42 | 1226626 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

It is not much money.  You have to run 23 avatars to make a decent living.  That is fucking hard work my man.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:19 | 1226518 Cruzan Stomp Revival
Cruzan Stomp Revival's picture

The move in the DXY must be nearly parabolic at this point. Wait, let me check. Ah, well a 72 handle again.

This has to be lamest thing I've ever seen in any market anywhere. It's like paying money to see Charlie Sheen's stage show. The joke's on you if you participate in these "markets".

Buy physical unlevered and enjoy the shit-show.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1226550 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Dollar short covering mad rush' doesnt look like the reason to me. I bet this was a JPM scam, done with some Bernanky Bux, theyre desperate.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:17 | 1226520 espirit
espirit's picture

Makes me want to buy more.  Bought at 10% down, will buy at 20% down, and will buy at 30% down if they're dumb enough to take it that low- and I'll still be in the green.

Buhahahahha! Silver Bitchezzz. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:51 | 1226673 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

yeah but it's hard to focus on the buy button when you are vomiting like the etrade baby

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:20 | 1226521 Goldenballs
Goldenballs's picture

Total Manipulation by the very desperate EE.BTFD.Hopefully they will be broke pretty soon as more and more physical is taken out of the market,physical Silver they cannot afford to loose.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:18 | 1226526 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

Attention K Mart Shoppers--we have a blue light sale........

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:21 | 1226529 digalert
digalert's picture

Actually feel better about silver here. Friday CNBS was on a silver bubble, this is tops campaign. While gold played a head fake and launched past the talking head trolls. Next week doomsday gold will will be on the agenga for the trolls. For everyone holding physical, this is just noise.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:28 | 1226535 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Golds turn to run thats all, silver I bet will remain stable around $45, last months proclaimed 'unattainable level'. Nothing has changed, Bernanke still printing like a maniac bottom line.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1226548 NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

Again-Thank you for the gift you *             * idiots. I've been here almost day one, and been BTFD everytime. Your game is over. Go back to the Hamptons and ask daddy whats the secret handsake to get into the TSA. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:24 | 1226556 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The central banksters are so f'n desperate.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226549 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

It will be fine by tomorrow.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1226551 Al89
Al89's picture

Silver is not a bubble. The mainstream media calling it a bubble is perhaps the best indicator of this. Just like 'experts' in the MSM were calling for Gold to drop to 1100-1200 at the bottom of the correction in Gold in Feb we will hear 'experts' calling for silver to drop to $30.

Quick question for those calling crash. What fundamentals have changed? Silver has simply had a nice long run up, hit a key psychological barrier, fear has overcome greed, investors got nervous and perhaps some with interests in a low silver price saw this moment as the perfect time for a take down in very thin trading hours, with London also closed on Monday.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:27 | 1226559 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:26 | 1226552 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Damn...those asians are buying by the boatload.

Why do they always get the best dips?

Come on MathFag, short some more so we can get a better price tomorrow!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:28 | 1226572 Gold 36000
Gold 36000's picture

.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:24 | 1226557 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Silver has an NPV of Future Cash Flows = $0.  LMFAO!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 03:26 | 1228463 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Bahh. That's the best cash flow joke eva.

Hahaha, hahahah, it's soo funny. Hahahahah.

Read my lips. No new taxes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQTW7Pd1vqc

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226560 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Gap being filled.

Wonder how many accounts on MF got wiped today.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226561 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

By the way--anyone recall last Sunday evening when Silver started running up--I think was up $5 in a matter of an hour--then sold off during the early morning.

 

This is merely a mirror image--to be completed if silver regans most of the losses wwhich occured in a flash crash minute

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:28 | 1226563 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Apmex Silver is being raided right now by a swarm of Silver Locust. Sales numbers are parabolic. Looks like everyone is BTFD with a vengeance. Just type 9999 in the order block for the number of items desired. If there are 9999 or less an error message to display and tell you how many of that item remain in stock. I'm very sure Apmex will sell out of everything Silver in less than 24 hours if this dip holds. All other dealers will be in the same position. If I were selling Silver I would shut down and refuse to sell anything. I would call this a gang rape of Silver dealers if they don't close the doors.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226711 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

As of 19:53, they have: (of the bigger stuff)

one 2010 Monster Box

182 ASE 2011 tubes

14 $1000 face bags

20 $500 face bags

98 APMEX 100-oz bars

1 Englehard 100-oz bar

850 new JM 100-oz bars

19 old JM's

17 Heraeus 100-oz bars

2 Pan-Am 100-oz bars

etc, etc, etc.  Supply is good.

 Tulving's sale would be much more telling, because he's the big boy on the block with those 500 oz minimum orders.

Back down to $44.43 bid then up to $45.31 in the time it took to report this.  I'll check back in a while to see what's moved.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:47 | 1226712 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

double post

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:25 | 1226565 The Feds Connection
The Feds Connection's picture

45.050 again

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:26 | 1226566 jackinrichmond
jackinrichmond's picture

first we see a big decline in OI,

then a big drop in the short side on the COT,

then a short sell off in thin markets..

it makes sense.. 

if this is what has happened, it's truly great, great news.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:28 | 1226567 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

I'd like to think this is a "last gasp" effort by TBTF to take down price, but some technical levels are being breached here.  If rally overnight does not take this back up close to 46 (at 44.1 as I write) then direction is neutral to down.

I've been in the run since 21 so I don't plan to wait around to see what happens if dip isn't bought overnight.  Everyone seems to want to have the price go down here, so if non-US doesn't support, I think that's what it is likely to do.  Fundamentals are unchanged.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1226590 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

There was probably only one entity in that move, it happened too suddenly for the greater market to be involved. 11 minutes for all silver players to get to their desks and unload? Me thinks not.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:27 | 1226568 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

It is holiday in China. The silver shorts knew Chinese are not able to buy in the next week. This is a good opportunity for them to pull the market down. But that only highlight siver fundamentals -- millions of Chinese like poor man's gold. Look for the right dip to buy. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:38 | 1226605 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Chinese cant buy? Isnt there an app for that?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:27 | 1226569 TankWolf
TankWolf's picture

http://img837.imageshack.us/i/gogosilver.jpg/

And there she goes, buy the dips! :)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:30 | 1226570 FB24601
FB24601's picture

Today is a chinese holiday, they press it down and cover the shorts. Period.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1226576 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

So how come it is soooo easy to drop the price really quickly (as happened tonight) and soooo much more difficult to raise? Presumably, similar amounts of money are needed for either scenario?

In the past 2 hours:

Spread 3 cents - 30 cents going down.

AS MUCH AS $1.50 GOING UP. That's a really level playing field...NOT!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1226602 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The initial drop was on virtually NO volume...There were times when there WAS NO VOLUME as the price dropped...This is JP Morgan, plain and simple!

But don't expect any of the MORONS in the financial media to speak of VOLUME, manipulation, etc.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:38 | 1226618 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

\m/ JPM \m/

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1226723 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Are you saying that you saw the spread at $1.50?  Details, please!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:39 | 1226811 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice!  avatar = slewie's favorite eagle!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1226582 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

It is obvious that the shorts are parabolic in their desperation.  Think about it - if you were the Morgue and someone in January told you that the headline on 5/1 was going to be silver drops $5/oz to $42...what would the thought process be???

As the Creator is greater than the creation, the market is bigger than the manipulators.

Given the incessant defense of the high $40s, who else thinks this is a tipping point issue for someone out there (someone curled up in the fetal position with a cheetos mustache and a half-empty bottle of xanax).

I've got another 160 maple leafs arriving tomorrow - I think the site of them will get me to splurge for another half-dozen sleeves.  :)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:30 | 1226584 jcrows
jcrows's picture

Goldman- what an oxymoron

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:32 | 1226591 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

Just broke through $45 you trolls...

DaddyO

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1226601 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Private Joker said its the year of The monkey. Buy silver

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:35 | 1226606 PigmanExecutioner
PigmanExecutioner's picture

Can anyone find out who was the "hitman" in that huge short that sent the silver market tumbling out of the gate?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:49 | 1226621 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

The CME put the fix in 2 times in the past couple weeks. Is this the reason?

 

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/CME-Group-raises-performance-bonds-for-Comex-Silver-Futures-38447-3-1.html

 

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:36 | 1226607 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

All this weak-ass talk about the price dropping....SHIT....quit being scared...do you actually believe in this shit or not?

I for one actully KNOW that the U.S. economy has not been fixed...You can see it everywhere.  What is it about the U.S. DROWNING in unpayable debt, not having near enough political or social willpower to fix the problems we face and having a FED and Tresury hell bent on printing the dollar into oblivian makes you want to sell your silver?  The price that shows up on Kitco is only day to day....what about the foundation of our monetary system?  Did that get better tonight?

If the answer is NO...then you know what you should do.  BUY AND HOLD PHYSICAL METAL ONLY,

If you are a dumbass and got blown the fuck out of the water buying metals on margin - leveraged to your eyes....then tough fucking break...your greed got you this time.  Suck it up and quit bitchin...you know the game.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:03 | 1226695 TreadwCare
TreadwCare's picture

+1.  A voice of reason crying in the wilderness?  Last I checked, we're still forked in the US of A.  Fundamentals didn't change over the weekend.

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