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Silver Plunges On China Slowdown Concerns, Dollar Short Covering

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In early trading, silver is down nearly 20% from Friday highs, and just under 15% from its Friday closing fixing, hitting just over $42 in a slide of $6 commencing just after 18:25 pm. The reason for the collapse is not immediately clear, although concerns of a Chinese slowdown and overtightening are rumored to have been among the culrpits. The circumstantial evidence is in the OZ pairs, with the AUDUSD which has long been a high beta proxy for China plunging in early trading as well. Oddly enough, gold has been spared most of the carnage in silver, and was down about 1% in early trading. Overall, this appears to be nothing more than a short covering episode in the USd provoked by nothing factual. We will keep an ear open for any incremental data to determine if there is any actual reason for the plunge, such as for example that the BOJ has suddenly decided not to pick up the baton in trillions of monetizations over the next few months, instead of just another bout of technical selling.

Silver:

And China-Dollar:

 

Here is Goldman providing some more color on the Chinese slowdown

April PMI readings suggest weaker growth...

Although the official NBS/CFLP and HSBC/Markit PMIs are supposed to be seasonally adjusted already, they both showed seasonality in their historical April readings (the seasonality in the HSBC/Markit PMI is a lot less consistent and significant than the official one). Considering the seasonal bias, the lower reading in the official PMI and unchanged reading in the HSBC/Markit PMI suggest manufacturing activity growth weakened in April.

...and lower upstream inflationary pressures

The latest reading of the Input Price sub-index (note this is a reference index which does not enter the calculation of the headline PMI), which is highly correlated with the sequential reading of PPI inflation (see Exhibit 4), suggests the latter is likely to show further moderation in April as well. At the same time, with the softening of food (especially vegetable) prices, we are likely to see a meaningfully lower CPI inflation reading as well, perhaps to around 5.0% yoy, down from 5.4% yoy in March.

We believe the underling growth momentum indeed has been trending down despite some data issues...

There have been some controversies regarding the relative reliability of the PMIs versus official “hard” data such as industrial production (IP) as a gauge of manufacturing activities. In March, the PMIs apparently were not strong considering seasonality (headline official PMI went up but much less than the rise in March data historically), but hard data almost across the board showed stronger growth than in January-February. We believe the difference might be the result of unstable seasonal factors in the PMIs and other data complications such as the Lunar New Year effects which often distorts monthly data within the first quarter of the year and changes to statistical standards in terms of official IP/fixed asset investment data (see China: March PMIs suggest activity growth continued to moderate, Asia Economics Data Flash, April 1, 2011 for further details) . Besides, the equal weighting methodology of the PMIs meant when small enterprises move differently from large companies, the PMIs would tend to reflect their changes more than hard data such as IP. Having said that, we believe the trend of the two PMI series is generally reliable and they have both been on a downward trend since reaching a peak in 4Q2010 and there is no clear sign of an imminent change to that trend yet. Within 1Q2011, growth in March probably had a rebound but it appears to be a temporary one.

...driven by continued policy tightening and increasingly prevalent power shortages and possibly a slowdown in exports growth

Our channel checks with commercial banks suggest their lending activities have been under continued pressure from regulators in April. At the same time, there have been increasing anecdotal information on the rise in the actual lending rate (commercial banks are free to charge interest rates above the official benchmark lending rate without a ceiling) as a result of the various quantitative controls. Apart from these conventional monetary tightening tools, the government also seems to be broadening the width of tightening by imposing additional administrative controls on investments in aluminum smelting and production in energy-intensive sectors as a result of the increasingly prevalent power shortage in the country which tends to slow domestic demand growth. Besides, the Export Order sub-index of the PMI has been falling rather quickly since the start of the year which deserves a high level of attention though so far it is somewhat at odds with other information such as our Global Leading Indicator which has been a reasonably good leading indicator of exports growth and it has not shown any meaningful softening.

There are no signs of an over-tightening as yet

Despite the softening of the PMIs, they both stayed clear of the 50% threshold and there has been no dramatic fall in other major economic indicators either. While the 50% threshold may mean something different in China than in many other countries as China’s trend level of PMIs appears to be higher, a slightly below trend level growth is what we would regard as appropriate given there is still a clear need for the Chinese economy to lower its level of inflation.

We expect this policy stance to be kept largely unchanged in 2Q2011 compared with 1Q2011 and the downward trend in activity growth and underlying inflation is likely to continue

We believe given the level of CPI and PPI inflation is still above the government’s comfort zone and activity growth appears to be holding up at a healthy level (yoy activity growth may actually rise further because of a low base in 2Q2010), the growth-inflation combination will mean policy makers are likely to continue to keep the policy stance comparable to 1Q2011 (not March, as the policy stance in January-February was much tighter than it was in March). More meaningful changes to the policy stance will likely come in 2H2011 as yoy CPI inflation is likely to start trending down as a result of a change in base and the expected sequential slowdown.

 

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Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1226610 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

double post...Sorry

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:39 | 1226611 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Silver is called the Poor Man's metal for a reason.  LMFAO!!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:39 | 1226612 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Almost $3 off the low.  Methman's imaginary profits going up in smoke!!! ROFL!!

No almost to it, now  $3+ off the low.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:40 | 1226631 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Poor Methman, already gone back into seclusion.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:50 | 1226654 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

lol that's good. Meth is so full of shit.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:39 | 1226613 PingaYourFace
PingaYourFace's picture

Bernanke is so worried about silver and gold prices, he's just gone offer on precious metals. If the fed can dabble in straight out equity purchases, why not the same direct interaction with pm's?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:40 | 1226629 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The fed has no silver to deliver.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:56 | 1226682 PingaYourFace
PingaYourFace's picture

Just a minor detail, pretty much irrelevent.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:13 | 1226737 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Isn't that the truth.  This is exciting, by the way.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:41 | 1226620 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Spread still 30 cents @ 1:37 am BST and Silver @ 45.35 ish

I'm off to bed. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:39 | 1226624 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

Wrong.  Silver plunged on a margin call at the illiquid Asain opening.

And the dollar is at 73.05.  No short covering.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:44 | 1226625 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Someone looks like they're getting sheared here, and it looks it's the sellers at 42.  Great price action for bulls here.  Let's see where it settles in.  Anything above 46, and this is a non-event.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:42 | 1226627 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Pay no attention to the Math trolls.. they are bots that are programmed to insert pointless comments at pre-determined price points, on the downside only.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:10 | 1226731 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"...bots that are programmed to..."

Very good!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:40 | 1226628 winning
winning's picture

WINNING !!!!!! Because ..... I BTFD ...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:44 | 1226630 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

I smell a rat called JP Morgue!

BTFD!

Get more silver NOW!

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:43 | 1226632 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

FIGHT THE MACHINE!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:44 | 1226636 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I tuned in here at 20:25 EDT and was looking at $42s scrolling the curve.  It's now 15 minutes later and we're back near $45.

Umm...I'm the macro guy, not the trader/tech analyst.  Can the smart folks put this together in a nice storyline, or is the data still occluding that?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:49 | 1226660 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Check a few comments above.  Looks like a "trading" event and not a "market" event.  Whether that is big boy manipulation or thin trading because of holiday or some unwind, the dip appears to be in the process of being bought.  Gold and dollar flat so a $1-2 dollar down move overnight in silver doesn't automatically signal trend reversal. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:51 | 1226638 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

I smell a Rat, AUD fell and retraced even higher in the time it took to make coffee

Silver being hit like that when most markets are asleep or on holidays reeks of JP Morgan.

It was used to put some "fear" into the market so it did not run away on them as it has been for the last 4 weeks. A little fear is good as it will stop the margin boys from betting the Farm. 

Its safe to buy but don't expect daily rises or they will bitch slap it again to get in under control.

Who ever it was, clocked on at 6.00pm and smashed the screen.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:46 | 1226641 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

JPMorgan is really desperate.

How desperate?

Here's how much: Wikileaks is about to release more crap.

Among the "leaks": silver is in a bubble.

Seriously, do they really think anybody believes Julian Assflange nowadays?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:46 | 1226642 shinyindallas
shinyindallas's picture

I bought 2 10oz wall street bars off apmex on the dip. APMEX is getting hammered.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:51 | 1226658 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, last week Apmex assmonkeys were begging to buy at $51, now theyre having to sell at $45, what a bunch of freakin idiots these central banksters are getting kicked square in the nutsack.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:46 | 1226643 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CHINA... IT'S THE MARGIN INCREASES FROM FRIDAY LEADING TO MARGIN CALLS/LIQUIDATION OF WEAK PORTFOLIO'S.

IF THIS WERE A PM CORRECTION, GC WOULD BE DOWN AND THE DX UP, BUT THEY ARE NOT.  

BUY BUY BUY!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:51 | 1226670 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

+

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:45 | 1226645 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Dammit. Already up almost $3 before I could BTFD.

PS - Tyler, you need to get this site of that commodore 64 and on to some real hardware - site can be really slow.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:47 | 1226648 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

50% fib retrace of the move is seeing some strong resistance

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:49 | 1226661 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

What ticker are you looking at? The chart I'm looking at is showing little resistance and a pretty steep climb back towards the moon.

DaddyO

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:56 | 1226677 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

July 5th futures contract on silver

I have the streaming quotes so probably why it hasn't showed up on your screen yet. Give it 15 minutes, it should update for you.

It's currently under the 38.2% level and trying to impregnate it.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:55 | 1226650 Tejano
Tejano's picture

Anecdotal evidence of physical shortage (at least for the retail buyer).

Thought I'd pick up just a few ASEs from my favorite online dealer when spot touched $43.  "Dates our choice" at a modest discount.  Phone rang and when I got back to complete the order, they were sold out.  Ok, I'll take 2011 BU.  Whereas a few minutes prior - "Ships in 5-7 days", now it's "Shipping on May 27."

Last week coin dealer (has always had silver) didn't have enough on hand to get to the magic number.  Had to throw in a couple of Libertads.  WTF?  Gold?  Yeah, I'm goin' back to buying gold.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:47 | 1226653 Al89
Al89's picture

MarketWatch already have an interview with some top calling strategist up.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:53 | 1226666 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

of course, scare the late comers out, try to manipulate down, so they can buy more.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:05 | 1226700 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Is it Methman?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:50 | 1226655 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

I predict Apmex files Bankruptcy on October 29, 2011.  Mark my words.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:54 | 1226667 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Last week Apmex clownasses BEGGING to buy at $51, now having to sell at $44. Man this is hillarious.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:37 | 1226800 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, I will mark them for being stupid.

Large retailers like APMEX are NOT speculating on the price of silver, any more than your local grocery store is speculating on the price of food commodities.

APMEX, like those grocery stores, or more specifically, the store's suppliers, are fully hedged.  If they weren't, they would have gone bankrupt in 2008.  Or before that in 2006.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:51 | 1226657 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

+44.69

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:52 | 1226662 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

my silver dime is "worth" $3.15, again

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:50 | 1226665 PigmanExecutioner
PigmanExecutioner's picture

But it only costs $5 to take it out of the ground..................................... Tell that to the slaves of the conquistadors who never survived their mining experience.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:53 | 1226668 pan
pan's picture

As of now, DYX 72.91.  Grab as much physical as you can!

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:52 | 1226671 roninmd
roninmd's picture

For the past year I've been buying the physical at regional flea markets.  This day on Sunday, despite the dip only one vendor had silver eagles available and he was charging at a 10 dollar premium.  He was selling at 50 and would buy at 40.  At previous times, there where 10 or more vendors at these places hawking the legal tender at spot. 

This should tell you something. 

It tells me to buy the fucking dip.

I'm buying copper too.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:20 | 1226751 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Keep those pre-1982 pennies!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:23 | 1226765 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

And all nickels!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:55 | 1226678 plata pura
plata pura's picture

The paper precious getting another clotheslining by another sovereign wealth fund kill team. U.S open could be like beth page black from the tips in a 40mph wind for thee paper ponzi profiteers.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:58 | 1226680 LoneStarHog
Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:00 | 1226684 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Now wait for Japan to sink only a fraction of those newly printed quadrillion yen into silver purchases....

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:00 | 1226685 LoneStarHog
Sun, 05/01/2011 - 20:58 | 1226688 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Bernanke back on wednesday said again strong dollar... perhaps this time he means it.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:00 | 1226693 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

How could he do that?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226707 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

No QE3 and let the black hole sized deleveraging swallow liquidity.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1226727 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

No economy, no federal revenues.  Higher rates, higher UST debt service.  Weak income statement, weak USD.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:12 | 1226730 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ok....THEN what?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:17 | 1226741 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well dollar isnt lookin too strong with this 72 handle.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:13 | 1226734 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Guts?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:01 | 1226698 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Any new trolls coming in here to shill this alleged takedown that hasnt even seen monday yet will face the full wrath of the senior troll.

Shut up basement dwellers unless you announced ahead of time your purchase of options or double short etf's.

Otherwise i fart in your general direction.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:06 | 1226705 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But the Methmans up $30,000, or something.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:18 | 1226733 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I know a fake troll when i see one uncle bigs. Nowhere in the last two weeks did you give us your entry and exit points on your trades.

You give us real trolls a bad name.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:02 | 1226699 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

What's that smell like, Stamper?

Smells like somebody shit his pants, Floyd.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:05 | 1226702 Loan Gunman
Loan Gunman's picture

.9999 of the world is completely unaware of what is going on

in the pm markets right now.  Scary.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:05 | 1226703 Loan Gunman
Loan Gunman's picture

.9999 of the world is completely unaware of what is going on

in the pm markets right now.  Scary.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:06 | 1226704 Loan Gunman
Loan Gunman's picture

.9999 of the world is completely unaware of what is going on

in the pm markets right now.  Scary.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226713 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats going on in the PM markets?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:44 | 1226827 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

good un

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226714 Barking Spaniel
Barking Spaniel's picture

Back up to $45 already. *Yawn*  

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:08 | 1226715 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Quick check of EBay Silver Eagle completed auctions shows no change in price.  So much for the paper pushers.   

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:42 | 1226810 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

And, oddly - one of the places I buy from that sells tons of gold and silver eagles (literally tons) has NOTHING for sale............wtf?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:06 | 1226717 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

The Chinese will be furious for missing this opportunity tomorrow and will bet more. Anyone whos seen an Asian player get mad at a Casino will know that's the mentality.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1226720 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe not, maybe the Chinese didnt miss it at all.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:09 | 1226718 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

That is a typical: "take out the margin longs" action.  GS and JPM probably decided to shake out all the loose fruit from the trees.  Some lucky dudes are rolling in Silver now. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:41 | 1226807 knukles
knukles's picture

Do not by anystretch of the imagination assume Goldilocks to be aligned with JPM (Fed) and HSBC (BoE).  They've got full reign to fuck over JPM at any time, day or night, silver or gold pits.  In fact, it's part of the public domain (you can go search it yourself) that GS has held a long position in gold for quite some time.  

Just think about it.  JPM doing Treasury's work in gold, decided to tag along on the side in silver on their own, gets caught short, bleeding thru the eyeballs and what would you expect Goldie to do?
If you say sit by idly, like a nice respectable gentlemanly corporate fellow, go get a lobotomy.
That's right. 
JPM ain't a client, they ain't even a counter-party here.  They're the patsy at the table now that thier hand is shown.  And the biddin' ain't even near over.

Should just bit the fuckin' bullet at 1000 and have been done with it.  (For which I got gobsmacked for suggesting.)  Might be a damned good deal to flatten out and go home right about now.  But's always tough.  Too much blood, career, ego.  Ego.  Image.  Hubris....

And BTW, hear tell anything about that DoJ investigation into the silver market manipulation?  Wanna corporate fall guy?  Could get really interesting.

Stay long of popcorn.  And PM's.
This is a fucking sideshow.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226719 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104366.shtml

Some one bought 10 kg gold in Beijing. Gold/silver  retail is hot during holiday.

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104366.shtml

In Suzhou, gold and silver is on ration.

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104276.shtml

A mistery man just bought precious metals with 18 million yuan cash.

 

These are CCTV news during the holiday period. Silver and gold has a popular support in China. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1226722 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104366.shtml

Some one bought 10 kg gold in Beijing. Gold/silver  retail is hot during holiday.

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104366.shtml

In Suzhou, gold and silver is on ration.

http://jingji.cntv.cn/20110501/104276.shtml

A mistery man just bought precious metals with 18 million yuan cash.

 

These are CCTV news during the holiday period. Silver and gold has a popular support in China. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226778 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Cool link....that video in the coin shop is NUTS!!  (But one thing Chinese people aren't going to be doing on their three-day holiday is apparently smoking in public.  It has been BANNED!)

Communism sucks in so many ways. You'll see a lot more of that 10kg gold buying as Yuan drifted away from the USD peg.  Gold prices will go "down" in Yuan even as they go up in USD.  Mind you, gold on the year in AUD is almost flat.

USDX back at 73 (http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:11 | 1226724 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, this is interesting. We all know that this is the way silver works. And at some point gold will do the same thing. No one said this was easy but I think most of us here that have been doing this for a while are not looking at 5 days out but 5 years. Amazes me, when there is a correction the "intelligent" ones come out of the closet to advise how much money they made, in 15 minutes. Let it play out, will buy more physical at 40+. That to me is a gift. And the brilliant ones calling a top, again.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:12 | 1226729 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Battle continues.  44.4

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:16 | 1226738 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Quote stuffing.........that's all.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:16 | 1226744 New Survivalist
New Survivalist's picture

Even the shill MarketWatch admits this is all going on with low volume thin trading.

God I wish I knew how to FOREX trade. Some big winners tonight. 

Anyone? Is it true if you are trading from the U.S. you can't book anything until the U.S. markets open tomorrow?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:20 | 1226748 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Unless the dollar gets off the floor this is a buying opportunity. No big deal.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:18 | 1226752 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Oh my god this is so exciting!

An epic battle.

Professional sports are for proles.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:18 | 1226754 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

CCTV just aired the silver plunge news. The plunge was attributed to "institutional players". Looks good because institutions are selling in paper, we are buying in physical. At some point, they need to cover because silver and gold price went up because of insufficient physicals. Let them sell.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:25 | 1226767 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

This hit was obviously orchestrated with media outlets. I'll bet this has been in the planning sense early last week. In a week or so we'll be calling this the Battle of the Bulge and everyone will be bragging about how they bought the Mother of all Dips or crying about selling and are no locked out of the game.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:29 | 1226770 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Institutional players' oh the Morgue.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:22 | 1226760 honestann
honestann's picture

Simple and no surprise:  JPM is at it again.

The predators-that-be very much don't want silver to make a new record high.  Given the large and quick moves lately, they probably felt they better push it down far enough to prevent any one day move to a new record that they cannot stop in time.

JPM will, of course, find that every dip brings in lots of buyers, especially the physical buyers who will eventually wipe them out.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:26 | 1226769 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

$49 is the new $36

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:26 | 1226768 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Never understood the Sheeple rationale for buying into the teeth of a Parabola.  Oh well.  You'll only have to wait around 35 years to break even.  LMFAO!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226788 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Depends on where the "teeth" are located on a parabola.  I didn't learn that in calculus, and I am sure you don't know what you are talking about.

LMFAO.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 03:15 | 1228450 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's on the crazy axis in the cartesian coordinate system. Or the circle jerk axis in the polar coordiante system.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:35 | 1226791 dumpster
dumpster's picture

that's the same anal  remark quoted when i bought silver at 15.00 

 

 another fat head with no silver ,,and probably wasting away on unemployment that  just stopped .

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:22 | 1227006 r101958
r101958's picture

uncle is a troll.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:30 | 1226772 trav7777
trav7777's picture

In my experience, volatility like this in an uptrending market is a good sign to GTFO.

only silver I had I got in around $12/oz, and I would never hold enough physical silver to really care about. 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:00 | 1226884 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

If your market "experience" is in any way a mirror of your nuclear "experience", you should just shut the fuck up.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 01:04 | 1228203 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Mmmmhhhhh....indeed Ahmee. What else is shaking in your part of the world?

ORI

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226775 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

I agree. 50 is the critical psychological resistance. After it busts 50 to say 51 or 52, there is no looking back. 

It's the undiscovered country that ChairSatan doesn't want to explore. 

This is the Alamo of the FED. Stop silver at 50 or watch both silver and gold explode. Because I also believe that silver while not able to pull gold down, will pull gold up. 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226777 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Just short some British Pound.  LMFAO!!!  Just giving the Sheeple what they want.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226782 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Which contract and what price?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:55 | 1226872 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

June 11 at 1.6716.  LMFAO!!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:30 | 1226781 honestann
honestann's picture

This is simply JPM manipulating silver, as they do daily.

This time their primary goal is probably to give themselves breathing and working room in their quest to prevent silver from reaching a new all-time high.  Since silver has made some fairly large and quick moves lately, they probably want more space between the price and the all-time high, hence this action.

But every drop like this will bring buyers into the market, including buyers of physical.  So ultimately the tension between the JPM paper-silver manipulation fraud and the physical market will cause silver to close above $51.  But JPM and the predators-that-be are getting more desparate as they see more and more people call SCAM on the whole predator scam:  fiat-debt currency, fractional-reserve-practices, unlimited-bailouts, etc.

No matter what they do, silver will close about $60 within a few months, probably within a few weeks, and possibly within a few days.  People are increasingly wising up, and getting fed up.  They're sticking fingers in a broken dam.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:31 | 1226785 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Silver sellers are rotating in to Gold.  Silver is going to $ 25.00.  Gold will be at $ 2,000.00 by the end of summer.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:43 | 1226798 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Gold down so I don't see the rotation.  Manipulation and it remains to be seen how convincing it is.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:54 | 1226867 tickhound
tickhound's picture

"Gold will be at $ 2,000.00 by the end of summer.  Silver is going to $ 25.00."

Regarding your 80:1 ratio call...

+1 for originality

+25 for stupidity

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:56 | 1227290 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

No doubt there is some of this happening, with the ratio where it is.  I was surprised to see that Mish, a gold and silver bug, last week said he cashed out of silver for an equal (dollar) amount in gold.  Whether or not this is the right thing to do depends on your long-term view of silver, your long-term view of gold, and where you got in on each.  If sivler is indeed parabolic, then its the right thing to do.  But we don't know that this is the case yet.  To each his own.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/taking-silver-profits...

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:34 | 1226787 KingTheoden
KingTheoden's picture

I'm not surprised at this.  A few minutes before the close on Friday, I took a modest (500 shares) long position ZSL.  The main factors in this include the tell-tale candlestick weakness and the fact that JP et al desperately need to throw water on silver.

Still, it remains to be seen just how strong the bears are; are we to close below $45.50 and retest the $40 support?

Personally, I am doubtful at this point we will dive into March levels and so I am watching very closely for a whipsaw (e.g., due to savvy big players who have been waiting for a correction.)

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:33 | 1226792 steveo
steveo's picture

Hey, you going into that creepy cave?

Heck no!   I would rather try to trade the SPY against Goldman WITHOUT having Breakpoint Trades 91% winning trade system!

And some hiking Hawaii pictures just to condition you with perceptual whiplash.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/05/creepy-cave.html

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:38 | 1226801 simon says
simon says's picture

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:37 | 1226804 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

*Posted Earlier but no response*

Hey Tyler, can you or one of the smart people with PM experience please explain something for me.

Please go here http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do and bring-up the following 4 charts:

A) 5 Year, Gold USD

B) 5 Year, Gold AUD

C) 5 Year, Silver USD

D) 5 Year, Silver AUD

Okay, please explain why Gold in AUD looks volitile (as one would expect from a minor floating currency bouncing around), and yet Silver in AUD has little volitility, and in fact, is a close match to the the same graph in USD? Intuitively, shouldn't we expect volitility in both, or, a mirroring of the USD in both, not one of each!

Why does Silver AUD mirror Silver USD, but Gold does not...WTF?

Is this a tell-tale sign of manipulation, or has it something to do with Gold being produced and exported from Australia?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:45 | 1227138 Gunther
Gunther's picture

 

During that time silver is up ~5 times and gold ~2.5 times in USD.

The Aussie$ got dumped during the financial crisis late 08/early 09 . Overlay those moves of similar magnitude and opposite direction and you get gold being range-bound since the top in 3/09.

In EUR is a similar pattern with different timing; since gold passed 1000 Eur it got range-bound.

Nothing to worry about but is tests investors patience.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:41 | 1226806 theinebriatedsot
theinebriatedsot's picture

nothing has changed....nobody's 'rotating out' of silver.....if we have a correction, then it's nothing more than another buying opportunity....people, go have a beer and relax!

- el sotto -

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:49 | 1226808 razorthin
razorthin's picture

The only consolation I get at the moment is that if this move is real, and a dollar explosion ensues, the banksta's equity shares will tank.  In fiat fantasy land, they can't shit on commodities without eating shit.

Othewise, BTFD.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:46 | 1226818 Itsalie
Itsalie's picture

"this appears to be nothing more than a short covering episode in the USd provoked by nothing factual"

I doubt so, why then is the DXY still stuck at 73 same as last Friday close? And the OZ still firmly above 1.09 closing 1.1? And gold platinum palladium all lost over $30 in 3 hours. Clearly specific to PM, wheat corn cotton sugar all holding, as is EUR CHF GBP JPY AUD NZD CAD. And the Nikkei is strong so BoJ prinitng press is on duty, probably not that either, someone is gunning the PMs.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:45 | 1226822 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Wow - mad junker on the loose!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:45 | 1226828 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

I can still mount your wife

's stones.

Bet The Farm Duh.

Bought the shit outta o P @ $8.

Who cares? Yeah, I laugh at Methman too.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:13 | 1226943 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

Come on Mothman, junk me bitch! You think this dip means shit. Backs you up? I will kick you to sleep.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:03 | 1226829 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

everything is a duplicate now, eh?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:48 | 1226842 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

OMG!!!!!!

Silver has crashed all the way back to where it was... uh, ah, ummm, a week and a half ago...

Oh. Nevermind.

[bought between $13 and $15]...

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:05 | 1226920 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

It's all rock -n-hold shark.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:49 | 1226845 drom
drom's picture

That was nuts, I watched it drop on Kitco from $48 to $42.30 in one refresh!

As soon as I saw the dip was done I placed my order with Apmex at exactly $43, very nice, high five

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:00 | 1226889 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Dude, where were you at $7 silver?  High five-in over $43 silver is hilarious.  You'll have a sore bunghole for years.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:35 | 1227066 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

That was a good move, you're already up 5%.  And to this other guy talking about $7 dollar silver: where were you?  If you were in at $7 (which I'm betting you weren't), you're up several fold, so bug off.  I was in heavy at $11 - $14 and still have every ounce of it, and the last time I checked, a 5% gain in one day on anything is still something to like.  This guy can probably sell that back to APMEX tomorrow and pocket the difference if he isn't long.

Also, to the other guy: where were you when a 5% move in silver was big news?  In GM?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:49 | 1226847 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Why does everyone fear a pull back.  I fear if Silver did not pull back and correct 

and consolidate some after this long run just in the last 3 months of 2011.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 21:58 | 1226878 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

What does EE stand for?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:06 | 1226907 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

ok; I've thought about it for a few minutes and have concluded that it must be evil empire or something along those lines.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:08 | 1227394 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Correct.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:04 | 1226901 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Since the lows of 2001 Gold is up 585% and Silver is up 1564% before this current correction.  Speculators will be skittish at these levels.  Throw in some spirited manipulation by The Banks and their exchanges and Central Banks and it can go anywhere short-term.

 

I have no idea what silver is worth but I feel confident the world’s supply is owned many times over!

 

Good luck…

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:06 | 1226909 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

This is a USD move. Don't move. Be the cat.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:04 | 1226918 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

friday was a holiday in london.

wed: 4.27.11:  AM fix 1508;  PM fix 1511

thu: 4.28.11:  AM fix 1531;  PM fix 1535.50

1566 close friday, now 1548.  closing in a bit.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:08 | 1226921 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Well doesn't this little bend over ruin your day.

The asian holiday took what was left of support out of this market for thenext 24 hours it would seem.

If this doesn't show you how powerful the asian bubble buy is you better get the fuck out of this trade.

Yes trade, as I mentioned last week I sold over 49 cause I hit my target. I'm not gloating here because I made money I hit my target that is all.The insurance play is gone. It's fishing time and the big sharks just swam into the pool as I thought they would.

Will I buy in? Not yet.....

This ain't done by a long shot. Alot of weak hands need to be obliterated like 2008. That is what I feared the most. To let this go over 50 bucks would be suicide on Blythe's part.

She and the monkeys as Turd calls them have limitless paper printing at their disposal and they have just declared war.

Don't laugh nor not take this seriously. Those guns she has are not fucking empty, she is way fucking bigger than you are, and she has fucking trillions of chairsatan toilet paper to play with.

prepare accordingly, your diarhetic enema has begun. I hope you didn't leverage/ You were told not to by many here.

Thankfully the asian holiday is one day. This next 24 hours will tell a very important peice of information. What happens when the asians leave the building.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:17 | 1226964 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Sound advice...

But the asians just got here.  They haven't even sat down yet.  They're still waiting in line for popcorn and soda, getting set to kick back for what will prove to be an extended double feature.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:19 | 1226956 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

  ... Since when is silver a "China play"?  Silver is getting "croaked" because big brother ( JPM etc ) is/are fucking with it.  China will print more fiat if they slow down, please make a Trillion notes of it.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 03:48 | 1228482 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

China thanks JPM and Blythe for this opportunity

China is now adding more silver to it's reserves a la J P Morgue and Blythye's short sightedness

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:22 | 1227007 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Welcome to the Downside of the Parabola.  LMFAO!!!!  Sheeple Idiots will be buying all the way down into the abyss....kicking and screaming they are being manipulated to the poorhouse.  LMFAO!!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:08 | 1227414 saulysw
saulysw's picture

OK, we get it. You've said it. Now can you shut up? Thanks.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:26 | 1227028 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

This is the Mcshake. DON"T MOVE. Let 'em slap. Let 'em threaten. Let 'em drop it by 50% USD but cling tight my friends. Grab hold with both hands! Chin up. Press on. Buy Buy Bi. Oops Buy.

Sorry for the social slip. Gottz a lot a fights goin' on.

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:27 | 1227031 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Thank God Silver has pulled back!  Was starting to get worried that the move

was going directly up.  This is VERY healthy pull back, am very pleased.

A healthy bull market which we are in with PM's needs these pulls backs otherwise

it will be near the end.  Very Healthy!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:31 | 1227048 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

If you think $44 is healthy, just wait for 37, 32, 26 and 23....you'll be feeling great all the way down.  LMFAO!!!!

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:39 | 1227107 Ben Fleeced
Ben Fleeced's picture

Cunt wait for the buying opportunity UNCLESMALLY.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 03:44 | 1228475 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

LMFAO

You can keep your US$ and wipe your ass with it shortly. Mayve it will be of some use to you. We will keep the silver if you don't mind.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:31 | 1227040 unclebigs
unclebigs's picture

Best investment right now is USD cash earning 0%.  Everything else is about to get shit on.

 

 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:40 | 1227089 ctlaltDEL
ctlaltDEL's picture

Whats Obama got to say so late on a sunday night? Another Trump joke?

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:55 | 1227193 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

I know for a fact there will be a nice recovery then gain, it's called scarcity that the global market will ensure the PM value, 5,000 years can't be wrong. Our new currency will be in a basket of other strong currencies back by Gold and Silver so don't get it twisted, these FRN's have their days numbered.

 

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:49 | 1227210 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

I think that $40 will hold.  May briefly dip below on a spike down but I feel it

will be very short lived.  You can dream of lower but once again you'll just be

a loser.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:49 | 1227211 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

I think that $40 will hold.  May briefly dip below on a spike down but I feel it

will be very short lived.  You can dream of lower but once again you'll just be

a loser.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:50 | 1227219 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm not a huge market player but just standing on the outside looking in it appears it doesn't really mater what 'symbol' you buy as long as it's going the direction you want it to.  In other words, everything that's been preached about why to buy silver is negated in one night and we go crashing to $20.  None of it makes any sense and they can pull the plug anytime they want.  Not for me.  After what i've seen the past few years I have zero faith in the markets, let alone the jackasses in control of the US.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:28 | 1227635 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I agree with your sentiment, however, it doesn't solve the problem. That is, if you have any "wealth", where do you store it? Cash? PM's? Stock Market? Real Estate? T-Bills? Where? Everything has some risk...

Of course, you could just spend everything you have. They can't take away anything if you have nothing! Go out in a blaze of glory?! 

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:58 | 1227323 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

afghanistan now open for mining....silver? bitchezz??

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 22:59 | 1227332 KingTheoden
KingTheoden's picture

It's a two pronged strategy for us. 

 

First, we should periodically get physical coin as a general practice.  Who cares if we miss on the short run?  The long term trend is such that the fiat machine is passed its depreciation and will rip apart this decade.

Our second tactic is, if we are of means, try to identify temporary swings in the market to bolster our gains. 

I just want to be clear that we can't forget that the long term fundamentals have not changed.  Ultimately, the USD is stricken with a terminal illness and while the palliative care eases the pain, no cure is being applied.

The US government is utterly beholdened to transnational corporations and will run this into the ground without question.  We will need some means of local stability if and when the Dollar crashes outright.  In my opinion, silver coins are the best tool for this purpose.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:38 | 1227707 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Agreed, the last Brettonwoods meeting sealed it's fate.

 

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:40 | 1227723 Plata con Carne
Plata con Carne's picture

Whoa, Osama bin laden is dead

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:52 | 1227849 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

He has been dead since December 2001, but we have a new enemy now, Al Awalaki.

 

http://www.welfarestate.com/binladen/funeral/

 

The Bad Guy.

Sun, 05/01/2011 - 23:54 | 1227839 oldtech
oldtech's picture

I just want to find some silver eagles I can buy at this new prices... Tomorrow should be interesting,... taking the day off work to look for coins...

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