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Something Breaks: ES, Carry Crosses Tumble

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Out of the blue, ES just dropped a good 5 points. Yes, in the good old PCP (Pre-Central Planning) days, this was perfectly normal, but since now we have a whole army of millisecond, algorithmic robots and a whole floor at 33 Liberty dedicated exclusively to making sure things like this never happen, it is rather disturbing. And in tried and true (anti) correlation fashion, the USD/JPY are jumping against all carry crosses. As far as we know this was not predicated by any news: granted, export news out of Japan were horrendous (12.5% Y/Y drop), but those should have been mostly priced in. Having observed the overnight futures every day for the past two years, this kind of thing "just doesn't happen" any more, which is why we are eagerly searching for what may have been the catalyst. If we find one, we will promptly update. In the meantime remember: he who defects first, defects best.

ES upward channel now solidly broken:

One potential explanation is in the form of the following report from the WSJ that banks face potential liabilities of over $17 billion on fraudclosure, but we doubt it.

State attorneys general told the nation's five largest banks on Tuesday they face a potential liability of at least $17 billion in civil lawsuits if a settlement isn't reached to address improper foreclosure practices, according to people familiar with the matter. The figure doesn't cover additional billions of dollars in potential claims from federal agencies such as the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Justice Department. State and federal officials haven't proposed a specific comprehensive settlement figure, but Tuesday's discussions represented the first effort to formally quantify potential liability.

This is precisely as we predicted when we reported on the $5 billion counteroffer from the banks to the first suggested $20 billion AG settlement: "this is merely a counteroffer to the $20 billion
preliminary bid. Which means that the final number to put the entire
robosigning affair behind us will be about $10 billion give or take. And
banks can go back to doing what they do best: post 0 trading losses per
quarter, and other such infinite sigma events. " in other words, following the initial $20 billion bid, and the banks' $5 billion counteroffer, a settlement will be found in the middle. $17 billion sounds like a nice, solid 2nd round bid.

Another possible explanation is that the market is reacting to the tumble of Glencore shares in their HK debut:

Glencore shares were trading at HK$64.65 compared with the offer price of HK$66.53 each. Last week, Glencore raised $10 billion through a London and Hong Kong initial public offering, giving the Swiss commodities trader the firepower for acquisitions.

Glencore's London-listed shares were stuck under water on their first day on Tuesday, dashing hopes of a strong start after it set a mid-range flotation price for London's largest-ever offering.

We doubt this too: GETCO deals with such a puny distrubance in the farce with a few million channel stuffing ES bids (and offers) each and every morning.

 

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Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:13 | 1308048 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

 

by baby_BLYTHE 
on Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:53
#1308028

 

ur ISP called. they know what your up to.

 

 

You governmant types like to get personal.  I thought you were all about the constitution and civil liberties like privacy.  I guess only when is suits your message.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:36 | 1308077 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

hey "sock puppet" pls go die in a fire, thx

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:43 | 1308089 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Now, who the fuck are you? Another alter ego?  For shit sakes you I know you fuckers can run at least 10 fake handles each.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:45 | 1308090 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

By the way Not For Reuse cocksucker I am the Antithesis to a true Sock Puppet.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:33 | 1308078 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Baby Blythe here is a real American Patriot and see what he has to say.

By the way, very interesting that you, bob and trav all posted in the same tread.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/gates-warns-that-freezing-defense-spending-could-harm-military-for-decades/2011/05/24/AFUVinAH_story.html

 

Gates warns that freezing defense spending could harm military for decades

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:48 | 1308091 tickhound
tickhound's picture

schizo-lo-lo-lo-lo-lo alert.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:52 | 1308102 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

What did BB get on the horn and call for the calvary.  Not one of you worthless fuckers will address the fact that BB is calling for violence here in the US.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:05 | 1308117 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Yeah, and?  So what?  It's America, isn't it?  Or, at least, it was.  She's entitled to her opinion.  And who's not pissed at what we've become?  Even the defenders of the status quo are quietly concerned.  

And it may, someday come to physically throwing out the trash.  And the trend seems to indicate the herd is moving in that direction.  I don't see the herd moving to live closer to the leaking dam, do you?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:06 | 1308123 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Enough said.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:10 | 1307631 surfsup
surfsup's picture

Crap print out of Australia q/q construction... 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:11 | 1307641 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

The reason: the end of QE2 and the ramifications are starting to sink in? I'm still waiting for the upcoming budget fiasco at the US state level to be priced in.

Maybe people really do believe that it's really going to be ok...until it's not.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:14 | 1307642 Rusty Shorts
Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:55 | 1307792 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Mr. Warren Edward Pollock is on fire:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBM8WGI1Z90

I define the reserve currency as being collateralized with oil which in turn is facilitated with military projection via the process of Empire.

 

We are in an unraveling process which challenges the "reserve currency" -- which currently runs on actual use of force and on reputation as evidenced by large trade and current account imbalances as well as the use of force.

 

This weakness has encouraged growing instability in places such as Pakistan, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, South Ossetia, Georgia, and North Korea. We have emerging would-be mini-empires of China, Russia, and Turkey / Iran willing to contend on the great landmass.

 

In a way we have fully depreciated our Empire -- which naturally under-costs energy cost -- including that of oil and nuclear. I talk also about Japan as an illustration that energy has been mis-cost.

 

There is no proper accounting in human life which allows people to have selectively high standards of living in an untenable context.

 

Loss of life used to be reserved for the people on the edge of empire, but this is shifting towards the middle where people in Europe, Japan, and the US becoming more vulnerable to the loss of life support.

 

In the US we are in denial with most people totally unaware of total costing let alone the idea that we project military force worldwide. Those at the top of the US system are trying to keep the status quo in place with last ditch efforts including the Patriot Act, pervasive propaganda, fascism, and the gutting of the Constitution.

 

I would describe the U.S. "in winter" where we fail to acknowledge degradation in standards and prospects -- "Arab Spring" more accurately describes people who have realized that they are losers in terms of sourcing life-support. It has nothing to do with democracy movements.

Someone get this guy on CNBC, pronto!

Also a job teaching economics...

The people in the U.S. have no idea whatsoever... They have no idea that the military budget is $1.2T a year. They believe all the rhetoric that they get, that it's "because of social spending" or because of "this" spending or "that" spending. They don't put the pieces together and realize that their standard of living has been floating on the back of Empire since World War II -- and a little bit prior -- and that that Empire allows them to get oil -- it's allowed them to get a high standard of living -- and that's breaking -- and they're just floating on their reputation...

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:15 | 1307643 Orly
Orly's picture

It appears that the USDJPY pair should re-enter a down channel tonight, with a bounce off the trendline @~79.2 over the next several days or weeks.  The AUDJPY pair is also quite bearish on the weekly charts and may even double-bottom @~ 71.78 over the next couple of months or so.  GBPJPY looks to retrace recent gains and will probably bounce off of ~ 129.2 before moving higher.

The USDCAD pair is trying to move higher over the next several weeks, perhaps violently so, which means that oil (and prolly precious metals, too...sorry...) are also going to take another tumble, again perhaps violently.  Whipsaws are going to be the order of the day here, so tread carefully.

:D

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:31 | 1308001 Orly
Orly's picture

Everyone with ears should listen to these tapes.  This may start to bring down the entire house of cards!

Very much worth the time.

http://obamareleaseyourrecords.blogspot.com/2011/05/plot-thickens-debt-collector-obamas.html

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:04 | 1308041 T1000
T1000's picture

Interesting link. I wonder if anything will come of it.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:15 | 1308052 Orly
Orly's picture

I think it will.  Between the obvious forged birth certificate and Corsi all over this and now, people are coming out of the woodwork with all kinds of stuff.

Obama using an SSN of a person (Harrison J Bounel...) who lived in Michelle Robinson Obama's grandmother's house and was born in 1860?  The 042-prefix was from Connecticut, not Hawaii.

Changed the Property ID Number 6 times in five years on a mansion in Chicago?  Joint-owned by a Circuit court judge and Obama's tax accountant?  The property dealer (Rezko...) already in jail.

Fifty-eight other properties across the country with his name on it?

And now Obama's mother is getting closer scrutiny, too.  CIA links abound with these people.  It is just amazing.

http://www.newsfollowup.com/

Again, it's always the same names that keep coming up.  Bush, Kissinger, Bzrzenski...

I sure hope they nail these sumbitches on this one.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:30 | 1308238 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

SSNumbers get recycled after someone dies (why?  Who knows!)  As for the rest, I'm of the opinion that the rabbit hole is very deep and very twisted:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_Palms

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:28 | 1308004 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You are wrong. Your projections are wrong. And your analysis is faulty.

Period.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:49 | 1308024 Orly
Orly's picture

Care to explain why?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:28 | 1308071 Orly
Orly's picture

Really.  I would be interested to know.

:D

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:35 | 1308076 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Orly, Orly.... you're always so polite & respectful, esp. to the douches. you'll never hear back. just a hit & run, 'cause he doesn't have an answer

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:33 | 1308079 Orly
Orly's picture

I thought maybe I had offended his position on precious metals.  It can't go up forever, you know.

:D

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 05:22 | 1308202 VFR
VFR's picture

Orly . I am in PMs but have recently limited exposure. I also feel we are in for a severe pullback. In the past I have been the bull with the biggest balls ever on pms. Now I feel like a whimpish bear over the short term and have cashed out. Gold could fall to 1415/oz and if silver falls back to $28 I could see the bankers taking advantage and throwing a load of paper at the market and forcing the price as low as $23. All combined with margin hikes on commodities which are getting once again out of control. Manufacturers margins are been squeezed and sales are down as the consumer refuses to pay higher prices. Ulimately something will have to give otherwise an already fragile recovery will tumble over the cliff. The powers to be will do everything they can to avoid that happening. Meanwhile Gold and silver climbs.

Maybe I 'm wrong. Either way i'm betting on  a severe pullback and then a really great buying opportunity. 

Any big buying in August and Sepetember on soliver and gold is a win-win situation. The debt ceiling will be resolved. If it goes up so do gold and silver. If default occurs then be sure to hold PMs by then :-)

 

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 05:32 | 1308205 Orly
Orly's picture

I can see that the Australian dollar is running out of gas.  That means metals and mines are not going to be as hot as they once were.

The Canadian dollar is also in for a major pull-back, meaning that oil and gas are not as hot as they were before.

Best of luck trading!

:D

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:15 | 1307646 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I'll go downstairs and see what the Banzai7 servers are doing.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:16 | 1307652 camoes
camoes's picture

ES will be green ny tomorrow, move along, nothing to see here

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:19 | 1307660 camoes
camoes's picture

Gold and Swiss Francs seem unaffected, are they the new safe haven asset?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:19 | 1307921 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Swiss Franc has been the storehouse of wealth for quite some time now, even doing well measured by what a respectable alpha chaser desires, and the Swiss Government is none too happy about this situation.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 04:02 | 1308162 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The people living in Switzerland are none to happy with this situation either.  Switzerland is a country just slightly larger than the state Maryland, with a population smaller than New York City

There simply isn't the domestic capacity, or even the insanity, to try and absorb all the global bankster's worthless fiat. 

The situation is getting so absurd that Hank Johnson's concerns about Guam tipping over and capsizing due to overcrowding actually could come to pass in Switzerland.  However, since Switzerland isn't an island- it would suck even more for the countries around Switzerland that get sucked into the vortex and crushed, since they don't have the reserves and tradition of preparation that the Swiss do.    

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:06 | 1307663 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

The only reason the stock market did not plunge today by another 100+ Dow points was oil stocks rally (Goldman's oil rally).

Now that oil rolled over in AH, there is nothing to support the market tomorrow (hence ES plunge).

"Oil dropped from the highest in almost a week in New York after an
industry-funded report showed U.S. supplies of gasoline surged in the
world’s biggest crude- consuming nation, signaling fuel demand is
faltering."

"Retail demand for the fuel was down 2 percent last week from a year
earlier, MasterCard Advisors said yesterday."

"Japan, the world’s third-largest crude consumer, reported a slowdown
in oil purchases last month after the March 11 earthquake shut
refineries and disrupted factories. The country’s imports fell 14
percent from a year earlier to 16.97 million kiloliters in April, the
finance ministry said in a preliminary trade report in Tokyo today."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/oil-declines-in-new-york-u-s-cr...

 

BTW, faltering gasoline demand is yet another sign that US economy is rolling over.

 

 

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:23 | 1307667 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

  Don't worry. An Investment Banker just threatened to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.... So help me, unless you have a better idea for more money.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:36 | 1307684 Diablo
Diablo's picture

burn it down, bitchez!!!

glad i sold all my posi today....after a little foray into YNDX.

 

PS; captcha: -23 times X = -483

sheesh TD, thats kinda hard after a few glasses of cab!  :)

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:37 | 1307695 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Thats why we have fingers and toes.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:52 | 1307730 MissCellany
MissCellany's picture

You must have more fingers and toes than I do. ;^)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:34 | 1307690 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

TD said, "...he who defects first..." indicating maybe a PIIG breakdown?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:42 | 1307708 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

all except for the fact that in the smallest states it is in the billions, and in the larger, hundreds of billions in fraud?   

a simple question;  where does any state AG get off making a deal that affects every person in the state before an investigation and trial?  

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:51 | 1307739 jdh2358
jdh2358's picture

Just buy the fucking dip you stoopid fucking idiot.  If you have any more questions, please see

  http://lmgtfy.com/?q=btfd

and also

  http://www.zerohedge.com/article/xtranormal-cartoon-explains-pomo

 

Hope this helps,

JDH

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:42 | 1307824 zen0
zen0's picture

and how are we supposed to know when is is a dip and not a droop, or a dunk? what about a dink or a dork ? The retail world wants to know.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 22:53 | 1307742 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Of course it's down - I sold TZA today.

Never fails.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:24 | 1307786 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Can you sell some more tomorrow, I'm still short the Russell  ;)

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:04 | 1307752 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

SPRF's pg 6 

OECD 

Planned economies are always subject to failure.

http://www.oecd.org/home/0,2987,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:07 | 1307765 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

What the fuck do you guys need me to explain fucking everything to you.

The advance copy of the durable goods report just went out.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:30 | 1307797 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

OT:

I've been watching Syfy movies all day.

How can such dumb fuck, propagandized, clueless morons get a job writing a God damned thing?

The stupid is epic. It is like watching some bullshit an eternal student might dream the world is, based on watching movies by even more clueless dipshits.

The world is fucked if this shit gets taken seriously.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:11 | 1307905 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Heinz Ward just won in Dancing With the Stars. What ever shall we do with our lives now!!!

Oh yeah, we'll BTFD

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:31 | 1308074 Orly
Orly's picture

Should have been Chelsea Straub (Kane...).  Kirstie Alley had zero reason to be there except for probable threats in ABC from Scientologists.  She was bad.  Sorry, but she was.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:06 | 1308225 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Here's Kirstie back when she was hot. Note the date.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7xXBoXTa0w

 

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:32 | 1307800 hitbox
hitbox's picture

sold my puts today - figures. shoulda stuck to my target.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:41 | 1307830 zen0
zen0's picture

I sold my putz!

 

Hah!

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:32 | 1307802 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I believe even Jesse Livermore, had he been alive today, when observing this full retard, Bernank-warped market, would have officially and succinctly opined:

I'm outta here. F*ck this noise.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:55 | 1307862 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

Jesse knew it was rigged and covered at 103.

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:42 | 1307825 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like TPTB stepped up for the usual and normal "stick save" on ES, AUD, EUR after the retard robots were tripping over themselves to "autosell"

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:43 | 1307839 zen0
zen0's picture

I heard a rumor that you named your tits.

 

One was Pump, the othe was Dump. Is this true?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:51 | 1307847 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Coming late, I know, but I think I can explain the dip: 

It hit right after the start of the Hong Kong pre-market (21:30 EDT). Today was the Hong Kong IPO of Glencore. It tanked 2.6% out of the gate, revealing concerns that commodities may have peaked. And that's being interpreted as a tell on the state of the global economy. 

Not only was it not a splashy debut, it bombed. Such a high profile IPO in good times would have gone bonkers. Some big traders may be thinking (as I am) that if Glencore can't cut it, what the hell can? 

Tyler?

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:56 | 1307861 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

 revealing concerns that commodities may have peaked. And that's being interpreted as a tell on the state of the global economy. 

I can't agree there, as the issue has never been the state of the economy. The issue has always been CB intervention. 

The economy has been papered over with faux wealth via excessive borrowing, and money creation ex nihilo

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 23:55 | 1307869 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Do you know everything that Hong Kong traders know? 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:03 | 1307878 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Bob works for or is Trav7777, he is an expert on every subject known to man.  Or he is also a Troll.  It is possible he is a Cliff Claven but I doubt it.

http://trololololololololololo.com/

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:11 | 1307883 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I know the /es has been selling off since May 1.

I know QE2 is set to end in June. 

euro is fucked.

Maybe they know something I don't.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:08 | 1307894 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Maybe you should call your boss Trav7777 and ask him.  Oh wait, he will pissed for waking him, better just detail it in your report and leave it on his desk for tomorrow morning. Don't forget to set the cofee maker or he will be pissed.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:12 | 1307906 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Maybe you can leave your book report on your step dads desk and catch some shuteye for the bus ride to school tomorrow, the short bus comes early to make sure you make it on time.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:28 | 1308065 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

you may never see this, but thanks, Bob: first belly-laugh I've got off this miserable site in quite a while

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:44 | 1308095 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

Another alter ego of Bob's I presume. You Fuckers are amazing.  If you think his burn was even slighty better than mine you must work together.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:19 | 1308059 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Somehow funny when Akak posts it..

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:40 | 1308086 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

I agree, much funnier when Akak posts it.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:03 | 1307881 SkySavage
SkySavage's picture

Talking about Glencore now on CNBC world.

Spot on analysis Cav.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:18 | 1307919 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Thanks. They had a news blackout in the mainstream US news sites until now.....wonder why.....

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:04 | 1307882 Alchemist
Alchemist's picture

Der Spigiel article talking about damaged ECB balancesheet is taking risk lower

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:09 | 1307886 chump666
chump666's picture

It was the WSJ report also hedge funds will start to 'hedge' on short-selling (finally) and it's all Asia baby. cept for the commies in China and their locked out market.  So it's just sell ala Shanghai B.

Big nasty correction coming even if EZ doesn't implode.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:09 | 1307897 chump666
chump666's picture

risk trade is the aud see that go through the 100ma.  we know it's all on

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:30 | 1307932 Orly
Orly's picture

Plus, it is bouncing round a major Fibonacci level @ 1.04765.  A confirmed break through that level leaves a looooooooong way down.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:29 | 1308066 chump666
chump666's picture

eveytrader in the world playing the AUD is waiting for that.  Its all hedge funds now (possibly) shorting Aust markets.  GE pulled out, so the meltdown could be on for Australia.  Either way, you are right, juicy take profit on a 1.044 downward

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:03 | 1308114 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

OT:

I found out who RoboTrader really is -

BUD LIGHT BEER | MR HOT STOCK TIP GIVER OUTER
Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:10 | 1307901 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Glencore is an active topic on twitter att.

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Shares in Glencore International Plc fell as much as 3 percent on their Hong Kong trading debut on Wednesday morning, tracking a lower start in London the previous day and as retail investors found the offer price expensive.

By 9:54 p.m. ET, Glencore shares were trading at HK$64.75 compared with the offer price of HK$66.53 each. Last week, Glencore raised $10 billion through a London and Hong Kong initial public offering, giving the Swiss commodities trader firepower for acquisitions.

Glencore's London-listed shares were stuck under water on their Tuesday debut, dashing hopes of a strong start after it set a mid-range flotation price for London's largest-ever offering.

Glencore Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg, who flew from London to attend the Hong Kong listing ceremony, said he hoped to give Hong Kong investors the return they expected on Glencore's stock.

However, retail investors in Hong Kong were not overly excited about the offering, saying they found the price expensive.

"Retail investors are not too enthusiastic about Glencore as they have been more focused on penny stocks with small market capitalizations recently," said Joseph Fong, an associate with Ping An China Securities.

"Glencore is too big for retail investors to have big profit on day one," added Fong, who owns less than 1,000 shares in Glencore.

After months of anticipation, Glencore went public last week with London's largest-ever listing. Analysts and investors had expected a muted debut for the company in Hong Kong after lukewarm response in London.

Founded in 1974 by Marc Rich, a trading sensation who fell afoul of U.S. authorities, Glencore has grown into the world's largest diversified commodities trade, with subsidiaries employing tens of thousands and an oil division with more ships than Britain's Royal Navy.

Commodities price volatility in past weeks prompted market worries over the IPO, but Glasenberg said two weeks ago that the decline in commodities was "due to some froth," downplaying the impact on the transaction.

http://news.insing.com/news/glencore-s-hong-kong-shares-down-2-8-percent...

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:21 | 1307925 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Not good in the middle of supposed froth when the #1 trading firm in the world 'that can do no wrong' is tanking. How can you not buy a "sure thing"? 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:26 | 1307933 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Glencore CEO blames the Greeks.

“All the markets are off around the world on the back of the Greece crisis,” Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive officer of Glencore, told reporters in Hong Kong today. “We are still bullish on commodities. Of course, China may contract or slow down, but the demand for commodities still continues.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-24/glencore-s-h-k-ipo-may-tempt-no...

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:39 | 1307948 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hehe....right, because the Greeks are such a significant portion of the demand for commodities. Oil, I guess. Olive, that is. :-)

 

This reminds me (and I'm sure others) of the infamous Blackstone IPO of June, 2007. Like now, a firm "that could do no wrong". It was the perfect company. By March, 2008 it traded at -56% from the close on the first day of trading. It only recovered that March 2008 price 3 months ago, and is down this month. 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 04:14 | 1308168 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

From a trading or cyclical perspective they are similar IPOs.  However, from a business perspective they are quite different.  Blackstone was already completely plugged into the US paper pimping business when it IPOd in the US.  Glencore is still plugging into the Chinese paper and physical pimping businesses in China when it IPOd in China.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:31 | 1307935 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm going to take a SWAG and just predict that the beginning of the end for the Eurozone begins, in earnest, tonight (although Australia's much anticipated housing crisis is beginning and China could be one sickly patient, indeed, with the PBOC covering up the festering wounds caused by toxic loans of some staggering proportions for some time, now).

And now, a Jim Morrisson & The Doors dedication to the Eurozone. I raise my glass to thee, wretched Eurozone, as Germany, France & the other relatively solvent (relatively) members realize that if a mere Greece is going to sink their governments, they do not want to test the waters when Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and possibly, all the U.K. comes knocking on heaven's door:

The End by The Doors

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:38 | 1307945 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Milon Friedman:


The euro is going to be a big source of problems, not a source of help. The euro has no precedent. To the best of my knowledge, there has never been a monetary union, putting out a fiat currency, composed of independent states. There have been unions based on gold or silver, but not on fiat money—money tempted to inflate—put out by politically independent entities.

 

- Interview with New Perspectives Quarterly Magazine, 2005

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:40 | 1307949 Sock Puppet
Sock Puppet's picture

I would tend to agree, but I might need a second opinion from Trav7777 or his apprentice Bob Dabolina or maybe even Baby Blythe, I think the ministry of truth will have a different opinion.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:59 | 1308259 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

LMAO, their still sleeping...

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:00 | 1308107 Orly
Orly's picture

The Killer awoke before Dawn.

He put his Boots on.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:31 | 1307942 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

Machines about to go rogue...  Start selling the rips!!!

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:39 | 1307943 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

Agreed, market looks normal, which is ironically abnormal those days.

TD please keep us updated )

Thanks !

 

p.s.  is an expected - unexpected funny in the making, a deault ? what, what what ?!?

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:55 | 1307962 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture

 

     In order for banks/brokerages to achieve the 100% trading record they have achieved, there is only one explanation that I can conceive and that is,....drum roll please:



      Front Running The 401K and Other Retirement Accounts, in complete contravention of ERISA.



              Bet On It. It's a Sure Thing!

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 00:52 | 1307963 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture

 

     In order for banks/brokerages to achieve the 100% trading record they have achieved, there is only one explanation that I can conceive and that is,....drum roll please:



      Front Running The 401K and Other Retirement Accounts, in complete contravention of ERISA.



              Bet On It. It's a Sure Thing!

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 01:52 | 1308029 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's getting darker in FX and stocks

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:13 | 1308040 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

The market is going to selloff huge at some point over the next 25 trading days, count on it.

- European sovereign debt crisis has resurfaced with a vengeance. This time it's worse than last time.

- US Debt ceiling issue has highlighted our dire "rock and a hard place" + "chickens coming home to roost" situation

- US economic manipulated data is beginning to worsen to the point that they cannot justify a recovery spin and will quickly have to revisit the "double dip"

- A shitload of other structural changes are occurring that reinforce the real beginning of the end of Western hegemony, like Iran assuming OPEC Presidency, the launching of Eastern commodity exchanges, major political figures speaking out about the end of the dollar, and plain old population-wide incredulity brought about by the sheer ridiculousness of the wool being pulled over our collective eyes by these naked emperors (bankers, politicians, media).

- Most importantly, The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a $480 billion program that subsidizes state budgets by up to 25 - 30%, is ending in June. So is QE2. That's about $1.1 trillion in stimulus being removed from the equity and debt markets. This is significant, as the majority effect of this capital has been at the margin and buoying.

The market really is forward-looking. It's going to be bombs away. Look at the past 2 months of price action in GOOG, look at GS. They lead the indices. The market is fucking done. Real fireworks dead ahead.

I am long VXX calls (VIX). No idea how hard silver may get hit, so i am hedging appropriately. Hatches battened down.

http://slv.collective2.com

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:14 | 1308053 Ricky Roma
Ricky Roma's picture

I got it... Waddell & Reed came in with size...  3 e minis.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:31 | 1308070 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

the second laugh I've got tonight... good one, Ricky

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:18 | 1308054 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

I see red candles.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:19 | 1308056 chump666
chump666's picture

GE just pulled out of Aust mortgage market. 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:17 | 1308058 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Just STFD.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:27 | 1308064 chancee
chancee's picture

Same thing as last year... Fed turns off the after-hour ES spigots at the end of QE so the market will tank and clear the path for QE3. Margin raises on commodities, Nobama's war on oil speculators... It's all part of the same thng: create an un-problematic environment for QE3.

It's all about the banks.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:30 | 1308072 BIGBOHICA
BIGBOHICA's picture

Don't know if it's been posted yet, but Seeking Alpha sites rumors of a snap election in Greece as the culprit:

 

12:03 AM Stock index futures are steady at lower levels after a rapid 0.75% drop on rumors a snap election is to be called in Greece.

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:36 | 1308084 chump666
chump666's picture

It's Greece, I'll bet (literally) a default is one the cards. Snap election rumors hitting wires.

Japan will go into depression.  China meltdown etc etc

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:55 | 1308092 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yep Yep Yep.

I win the door prize. It's the statue that was thrown at Silvio Berlusconi.

Greek Snap Election rumors.

Whether true or not, the official denial tonight lends me to believe odds on that the official demise of the Eurozone, in one form of fail or another, however measured by history, and at what precise speed, began tonight (technically, one could pick their spot among events of the last year or so, but this one's as good as any).

Just look at what Greece, small by the looming fail standards of Spain and Italy, especially (not to mention the growing possibility of a depressionary Great Britain at some point in the next year or so), has alone done to German and French incumbent politicians.

Chanos is out there talking very aggressively about how bad the impending Chinese Economic crisis is going to be - normally, something I'd take under review, but this is Chanos, and I've not known him to talk his book only to be embarrassed too often (actually, never).

And then, there's that little Fuk-U-up-Shima crisis, and the growing devastation it's having on both the people and economy of Japan.

It's on like Donkey Kong. Bitchez.

Opa! Yamas!

Risk On. STFD.

Whatever will the Bernkankle do? Where will Timmay Jeetner draw inspiration from in the coming days? How will President NerObama save the day?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Nothing less than QE 3.0 on a scale of 25 trillion USD,  mainlined directly into the veins of NFLX, AIG, GM and LNKD will save the day.

Oh, and there's this (17 bln now, and maybe 170 billion w/in 6 months):

05-25 02:43: WSJ writes 'Banks Face USD 17bln in Suits Over Foreclosures'

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:09 | 1308121 BIGBOHICA
BIGBOHICA's picture

+100 No-Reprofiling-Parthenon-for-Sale Pips

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 02:46 | 1308096 chump666
chump666's picture

Lock in a default time line: Greece and Spain. From Wires:

"Once again the market spotlight will almost certainly be focused on the continuing Greek tragedy. Yesterday saw a major dislocation in the relationship between cash and CDS, with 5yr cash trading 40bps tighter on the day, while 5yr CDS traded nearly 100bps wider to top 1500bps for the first time. This disparity has been much in evidence over the past couple of weeks, and will no doubt continue to be so, making the basis almost impossible to trade.
Overnight there have been rumours that the Greek Prime Minister might be meeting the President this morning to discuss the prospect of a snap election. This has subsequently been denied. This rumour does go to highlight, however, the tenuous state of the political situation in the troubled peripherals. We have already seen a major rebellion against austerity measures in Spain. One finds it hard to imagine that the Greek populace would vote in a party in favour of implementing the kind of austerity measures requested in the country by the various regulators"

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:03 | 1308111 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

Did you see gold today?

Gold up, QE2 plug going to be pulled, troubles with the Euro, trend in dollar strength, but Gold still strong (and some strength in copper too and a little in silver).

The big boys have already taken some profits selling equities and will take more.  They will rotate out then watch it drop 5-10% over the Summer, and buy in right before the FED whispers to them that QE3 is on the way somewhere around Oct.-Nov.

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:17 | 1308127 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Okay, we're going to see an epic crash.

It's one thing for the Eurozone to implode, another for the Chinese crash to begin, one more crisis with Japan & Fukushima, plus yet another massive problem for rumors of major litigation with banks over MERS/Mortgage Servicing-Foreclosure issues, but...but...

Costco, the retailer that has spanked all others and is always cranked at the seams busy, managed to miss earnings in a big mofo'ing way - STFD!

 

05-25 03:03: Costco (COST) Q3 EPS USD 0.73 vs. Exp. USD 0.77

 

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 03:20 | 1308134 BIGBOHICA
BIGBOHICA's picture

Agreed on STFD, but gotta be cautious of the CBs. A Battle of the Bulge Intervention in the Euro by a cohort of these CBs can't be ruled out as they have too much to lose. That'd certainly send the robos into Star Wars mode and delay the inevitable a few handles and Acropolis-for-Sale longer

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 06:26 | 1308232 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

It´s the ash cloud spreading it´s grey tentacles of economic doom and raining more and more silica straws onto the EU camel.  ;)

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