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S&P Junks Regions Financial

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From S&P

Overview

  • U.S. regional bank Regions Financial Corp.'s financial performance in recent quarters has lagged our expectations. Furthermore, we think the company's financial flexibility has been somewhat reduced.
  • We lowered our counterparty credit ratings on Regions and its primary bank subsidiary, Regions Bank. The outlooks on their long-term ratings remain negative.
  • We expect net losses to persist at Regions in the near term, largely due to unfavorable loan and geographic concentrations. We think net losses could continue to modestly pressure capital ratios in the near term.

Rating Action

On Nov. 23, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its ratings on Regions Financial Corp., including the counterparty credit rating to 'BB+/B' from 'BBB-/A-3'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, we also lowered our rating on the company's primary bank subsidiary, Regions Bank, to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB/A-2'.

Rationale

We primarily based the rating action, which follows our full annual review of the company's financial performance, on our view that net losses are likely to persist longer than we had previously anticipated. As a result, we see continued pressure in the near term on the company's capital ratios, which we currently view as somewhat aggressive after taking into consideration its high commercial real estate (CRE) exposures and unfavorable geographic concentrations. Furthermore, we think the company's financial flexibility has decreased somewhat in recent weeks, which could hurt its ability to access the debt and equity markets on favorable terms.

We think net losses at Regions will remain significant over the next several quarters given our expectations of ongoing elevated loan-loss provisions. While the company's financial performance improved somewhat in the first half of this year, the most recent quarter largely undid this progress, particularly as it relates to asset quality, and remains weak in our opinion. In third-quarter 2010, operating losses remained high, hurt by a sequential rebound in loan-loss provisions resulting from elevated problem asset dispositions. These dispositions resulted in $233 million of incremental net charge-offs. Also, the company is still seeing declines in commercial property valuations within its geographic footprint based on updated real estate appraisals. Moreover, the company fared poorly in our credit stress testing, which was updated with slightly higher loss assumptions for a number of loan portfolios at Regions.

In our opinion, credit quality has also not improved substantially, unlike at certain regional bank peers. Specifically, overall loan performance appeared to deteriorate meaningfully in the third quarter after some improvement in the second quarter. We believe that loan performance at Regions will continue to lag many other large regional banks given its significant CRE loan exposures and large exposures in the Southeast, particularly in Florida and Georgia. Combined, these two economically depressed states represent about one-fourth of the company's total loans and about one-third of its investor real estate loans, by our estimate. As such, we think any improvement in loan performance will be at best gradual over the next several quarters. As of Sept. 30, 2010, the allowance for loan losses was just over 50% of gross nonperforming assets (NPAs; including delinquent and restructured loans), by our calculation--which is somewhat below several other large regional bank peers.

We currently view the company's capital ratios as to some extent aggressive, and see continued modest pressure on them in the near term. In the third quarter of 2010, the tangible common equity ratio declined slightly sequentially to 6.13%, despite a contraction in the balance sheet, and it remains lower than those of most large regional bank peers. This trend is in contrast with most other large regional banks, which are generally increasing their capital ratios. Finally, the company's ratios under our risk-adjusted capital framework have been trending lower in recent quarters and are also below most other U.S. regional banks that we rate.

Positively, we think liquidity is strong, as reflected by the improvement in the ratio of loans to deposits in recent quarters and large cash balances at the parent holding company, which totaled just more than $4.5 billion as of Sept. 30, 2010. However, we think liquidity at the parent could be reduced should regulators require the company to downstream additional equity capital to its primary bank subsidiary. Furthermore, we think that Regions' financial flexibility has been modestly reduced in recent weeks given wider spreads on the company's outstanding debt and declines in its common stock price (see related research section).

We think the company maintains a good competitive position in the markets in which it operates and is well diversified by business line, which also support the ratings. However, senior management turnover, particularly in the risk-management department, has been high in recent quarters, which we view somewhat negatively in our overall rating assessment.

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects our belief that the rating could remain under pressure, primarily given Regions' large CRE loan exposures and unfavorable geographic concentrations. If loan performance or capital ratios deteriorate meaningfully from current levels or if operating losses do not moderate, we could lower the rating. More specifically, the rating may come under further pressure if NPAs, including past-due and restructured loans, exceeds 7.5% of total loans or if the tangible common equity ratio declines significantly below 6%. Alternatively, if financial performance improves materially, we could revise the outlook to stable.

 


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Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:28 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Suntrust next?

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Same footprint, why not? Here's a recent condo sale in Broward, FL: (see SALES HISTORY)

http://bcpa.net/RecInfo.asp?URL_Folio=484220GJ0440

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:48 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Guessing the 2006 sale was a zero down, subprime, option ARM, liar loan to an unemployed illegal alien

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

3 out of 5 right, its not lying if they don't even ask the questions. 

Bonus round: Seller was a mortgage broker!

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:29 | Link to Comment unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

about six months after the fact....

these guys should just turn out all the lights and go home.....

 

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Wynn
Wynn's picture

S&P    flag as junk (1)

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 17:04 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I abandoned Regions some months ago and moved my accounts to a local S&L.

Feeling great to have made my contribution.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:31 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

a year from now they will be reviewing TSA groping performance

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:36 | Link to Comment economessed
economessed's picture

I was watching TV last night and thought I was seeing a public service announcement for the TSA, but it turns out, it was just a Cialis commercial.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:56 | Link to Comment NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

could not believe that photo of them dressing down what looked to be a 5 year old - what the hell is wrong with these people?

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

You have to look on the bright side of things. The TSA is making Catholic Priests look like Saints.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 15:45 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I'm pretty sure fucking little kids in the ass is worse...

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:38 | Link to Comment TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

BXS is same situation, no way out. Plus they have 2 dozen class actions against them.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is the mud wallowing pig (S&P) calling the disease infested rat (Regions) unsanitary. (BTW, don't you just love that the root of sanitary is "sanity" or "sane", so unsanitary is un or insane?)

The HEIGTH of hypocrisy. Nothing new here to see, move along.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cannibalism time, as any sane retail has long since left the rigged casino so no one to devour except each other.
Scene from The Shining comes to mind when Danny from the back seat says 'You mean they ate each other up'? Thats right, oh Danny Boy.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

The HEIGTH of hypocrisy...

Yep, it's rather hypocritical.

But it's not the height of hypocrisy - maybe just the penultimate. The trophy is squarely reserved for the Republicans. The hypocrisy of the Republicans is absolutely knee buckling.    

Example:

Stand on a soapbox and preach the necessity for a smaller, less intrusive, less influential and more frugal government, while simultaneously enacting legislation that checks inside my shampoo bottles, X-rays my scrotum, monitors my phone conversations and emails, annihilates the DXY by 40%, doubles the national debt from ~$6T to ~$12T (while, strangely, calling for less taxes), and then, in the ultimate example of fascism, plutocracy and kleptocracy in modern history, takes my tax dollars against my wishes and gives them to their millionaire banker friends so their power and control over society is preserved. 

That is the height of hypocrisy. When it comes to hypocrisy, the modern Republican party has no match.

    

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I bow to your superior knowledge on the subject. The political circus has been interesting. It all reminds me of the circus clowns running around in the center ring bumping into each other, riding in clown cars, doing prat falls and so forth.

I think the Democrats are the clown that's always shooting himself in the foot.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

What? RF didn't give freely to the Fraternal Order of Rating Agencies?

 

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 15:02 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

RF is one sorry bank, it will soon be listed on the pink sheets...If you fire ALL of your risk officers..I very much doubt that you will see ANY upward movement in your assets anytime soon...   SELL>>>>

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

Looks like it's time to move my business banking again. The only smart banker from AL was John Malone, who unloaded South Trust to Watchovaya  3-4 years ago (hopefully had the sense to sell most of his stock).

Bobby Lowder at Colonial might wind up in jail over RICO at Colonial and the whole Auburn football mess - Colonial was issuing blank ATM cards to athletes that pulled from secret accounts.

Birmingham will wind up just like Charlotte within 6-8 months, if not headed there already.

Tue, 11/23/2010 - 19:26 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I abandoned that southern fried POS bank some years ago. Thank god I got out when it was good to get out.

Now if they will just STOP throwing money at the Satellite Commericals featuring green bikes they might actually have something to fall back on.

Just one little issue I think. Regions is one of the original Charter Banks that founded the Fed are they not?

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

It's not funny, but I recall a Junk Bond fund of theirs run by some hot shit manager.

I believe that when the fund was finally closed to investors it was about $0.34 and yielding 38%

I could be off a bit, but you get the idea. The funds were taken over by some other entity and there were pending lawsuits.

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