This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
A Zero Hedge Premium Preview: The Dionysian Rites of Henry Kissinger's CIA and the Iranian Revolution of 2010
As you may or may not know, Zero Hedge is in the process of developing a number of premium offerings for 2010. One of these is "Cf., The Journal of Irreverent Attacks on Conventional Wisdom, Entrenched Dogma and Sacred Cows." For your reading pleasure, and to act as a preview of premium things to come, we attach Volume I, Issue I entitled "The Dionysian Rites of Henry Kissinger's CIA and the Iranian Revolution of 2010."
Abstract:
Failing to foresee the Iranian Revolution of 1979 is, rightly or wrongly, often cited as one of the most significant and dramatic of Western intelligence failures. After enduring a superlatively ignominious electoral defeat in the history of the United States (Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter with 89.7% of votes in the Electoral College in 1980) and in what may have been the record holder for rapidly published post-presidential memoirs up to that point, Jimmy Carter's 1982 book "Keeping Faith: Memoirs of a President" pointed an accusing finger at the Intelligence Community's Iranian performance. His recollections lamented the work of the Central Intelligence Agency in particular, citing an analyst report on Iran from August of 1978 indicating that the country "…is not in a revolutionary or even a pre-revolutionary situation." By January of 1979 the Shah had fled. As might be imagined, what followed was a full court press, prompted by constant policy-maker pressure as well as the personal intervention of Henry Kissinger, who was badly embarrassed by the failure, to develop an organic revolution early warning system capability within the various appendages of United States intelligence. We review one such system outlined in the Central Intelligence Agency report "Warnings of Revolution," dated March 1980 and apply the methodology to present-day Iran. We find generally that the methodology's results are consistent with a finding of probable revolution (as it is defined in the report) in present-day Iran. Our open source version of this tool with general application to a wide span of national targets is available for public use courtesy of Zero Hedge.
- Marla Singer and Geoffrey Batt
You can read the entire piece here.
Original source material is available here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/CIA on Revolutionary Indicators.pdf
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/CIA on Revolutionary Indicators II.pdf
The first version of the online tool developed as part of this work can be accessed here.
Enjoy!
- 33965 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


Orly, shut up, you twat.
I am Chumbawamba.
As someone else asked, source please?
So the Iranians will be our friends, yet again? Not to mention the Iraqis, the Pakis, etc... Hmmm... Somehow I think that the really spectacular tricks can be performed only once... Oh, Gina, baby!
1/4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUISz8Uwh6A
Graeme MacQueen. Quality researcher with excellent credentials and stage presence. Bravo.
I thought that post might be interesting, but it was like reading an instruction manual.
That goes with granular representation of history....Names,Places, pain in the ass, I say..
Yeah, I thought 'Atlas Shrugged' was going to be interesting until they told me it was over 300 pages.
GP 2012
Ayn Rand is the biggest hippocrit to her own philosophy.
I've read the book, I finished it disgusted with her.
I thought it was da bomb.
Happy New Year. Have a Prosperous 2010. Check out the Blue Moon Tonight. Once every 19 years.http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com/
Do you ever have anything even remotely germain to add to the discussion here. I admit that I am grossly ignorant about a great many things and therefore tend to keep my mouth shut, but you, well...
Wow.
I am Chumbawamba.
Chalmers Johnson
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Js9mU8evhqs&feature=player_embedded#
The truth shall set you free
Thank you for your contribution.
All in the name of information sharing,,You are entirely welcome..
Thank you geopol.
Anyone see a pattern here? Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, now Iran with side excursions into Pakistan, Yemen etc.
Only the brain washed or the willingly blinded will not see the oil/USA connection.
Not to mention the poppy seed industry has seen incredible yields during the last eight years. I wish I could invest in that! But then I would have blood on my hands. I'm content with sitting on my pile of Au, Ag, and 7.62mm, waiting for the lights to go out.
The poppy crop is one of those "successes" that Kayman says are never made public. But that's not entirely true. Just ask any heroin addict. They know what's up.
I am Chumbawamba.
this is not all about US.........lets quit the fucking prissiness and expand the minds a bit more. The ME will be the plaything of the coming US/Ch/<Ru> axis. It isnt just about the oil, its the economy/social stability. No way the ME gets to be the power-brokers.
Whose TRUTH ? Truth is like a box of chocolates, sigh....
Truth is like Sex: it's what we want when we don't have it and disappointing when we actually get it.
I am Chumbawamba.
People don't want truth. They want answers. Truth is good, bad and indifferent. Answers are the parts we want to hear.
Jan 1975 onward lived w brilliant young lass just returned from Iran stint as ESL teacher. She reasoned the score there and fled, after first retrieving her passport via some intellectual hoodwinking to enable her exit.
Based on her personl eperiences and observations there, she stated without reservation that the shah Pahlavi would be kicked-out within 2 years. By 1977, only her timing coud be faulted, as any observers fortunate to have her as guide for their attention could then readily see.
Even I could follow the script from 10,000 miles away. That the shah would be gone was clear; the local machinations leading to that result were surely enabled and thus mere details to follow were of little import.
There is colonial policy to handle forced exits...it is to continue to covertly control or, failing that, degrade and destroy the successor government.
For Iran, the latter was used to cripple the new government's ability to develop and export its considerable petroleum resources and use the income to flourish and prosper...the last a scenario guaranteed to bring gasps of wide-eyed fear to planetary wannabe landlords...and did...and does.
The wannabes reacted, using Mossad and Savak and CIA and MI-5/6 only to prolong the shah's residence while arranging for the turbulence-confusion-chaos to follow his certain ejection. Enter the exiled Khoumeni. Imperial power never just quits.
Exiled Khomeini. Exactly, excellent post, he was under surveillance of DGSE from day one in Paris (note how appropriate the word surveillance is here :) ). The premise of pdf that Nixon was 'surprised' is entirely non-plausible, I think.
Kreso
any way we're able to digest more Marla Singer et Geoffrey Batt, especially with such insightful flair on "seemingly out of left-field" topicality, is pretty great imho.
fantastic work Marla & Geoffrey. thank you for it.
wow geopol, spam the thread some more?
On the topic of this thread, I wonder if the CIA uses the Hopkins model detect revolutions here at home?
Hey, kid, psssst. Over here, yeah. Come over here. I've got something to show you:
cryptome.org
Or you can also just google: Project Echelon
Here's an interesting link:
http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/29/038.html
But they don't need to predict revolutions, they predict dissidents, and then remove them.
Integrating Methodoligies into Teams of Experts
Intelligence analysis, like other complex tasks, demands considerable expertise. It requires individuals who can recognize patterns in large data sets, solve complex problems, and make predictions about future behavioral events. To perform these tasks successfully, analysts must dedicate years to researching specific topics, processes, and geographic regions, including our own.
Paradoxically, it is the specificity of expertise that makes expert forecasts unreliable. While experts outperform novices and machines in pattern recognition and problem solving, expert predictions of future behavioral events are seldom as accurate as Bayesian probabilities[1]. This is due, in part, to cognitive biases and processing-time constraints and, in part, to the nature of expertise itself and the process by which one becomes an expert.
[1] Method for estimating the probability of a given outcome developed by Thomas Bayes (1702–61), an English mathematician. See Thomas Bayes, “An Essay Toward Solving a Problem In the Doctrine of Chances.”
Geopol said:
"...The new CIA-promoted entity synthetic entity is "Al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula" or AQAP, a gaggle of US patsies, dupes, and fanatics which is claiming credit for the Umar Farouk incident. The US hopes to further dominate the exit from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal..."
I would like to add that this situation in Yemen, involving a US backed Saudi regime, sponsoring the Yemen Govt on the one side, and a Russian backed Iranian regime, sponsoring the Houthi on the other, is now attracting the attention of the Chinese:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/6911198/China-may-b...
This looks like "US hopes to further dominate the exit from the Red Sea" is going to find some opposition in the form of the Chinese.
Another flashpoint to monitor, in the many that exist in the world.
BTW - your math question was:
17 minus X = 45
To which I answered -28 (ie. minus 28), and in reply I got back:
Math question cannot be longer than 2 characters but is currently 3 characters long.
Unless my math is wrong, which in this case I highly doubt, then the alternative is a bug to the checking system for this question. Please fix.
Your old school math is correct; the new math is what gets you by CAPTCHA.... no worries..HNY!
You are correct, Iran as catspaw on China,,,, As to your math problem,, I have no dominion...
Zero Hedge Offices:
United States:
888.qui.zero (888.784.9376)
CAPTCHA Division
Phew, I'm glad that I'm not the only one who has trouble with ZeroHedge Math question.
As for Gopol... Bravo!
Favorite line in the attachment:
"Meanwhile, an unshackled press harasses the government with stinging criticism."
HAPPY NEW DECADE!
I concur in that stream of thought that considers it good to have the prior decade behind us.
1. Natural Disasters
2. Market Problems
3. Social Ferment
4. Political Intrigue
5. Government Countermeasures
Here's my query:
Are there any present plans to construct an intelligence appraisal of whether or not a revolutionary warning might apply to the USofA in 2010, based on assessment of the above-mentioned factors?
Oh Jesus, Geopol, you're quoting Russia Today and Webster G. Tarpley. No wonder it reads like another 9/11 Truther screed.
Welcome to my kill file.
RT??
You could try,
ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC,FOX I'm sure somewhere in there you'll find objective reporting.
Nice to see your expanding your horizons of understanding, increase your disk quota, your kill file must be getting full.
One more: E!
And RT's ladies are hott!
If I take one more E, I might start to believe the CNBS...
zero hedge is one of my favorite websites, there is really no reason for name calling. Marla you are my hero !
Sounds like a lot of fancy, elitist, intellectual bull shit to me. Then on the other hand, perhaps I'm not as high on the food chain as I thought I was.
Best regards,
Econolicious
Buster sez; thanks Geopol for enlightening the discussion. The truth acts like a 100$ bill dragged through central park for the shysters (reductio for one)whose grasp reflex cannot be suppressed. rustling of leaves as they come slithering out to join the fray. most revealing. always works.
Marla - shame on you for attempted censorship of historical record. ZH totters with every one of your dubious interventions.
Hmmm. This is ZERO HEDGE, you anonymous you. Whoever "Marla & Tyler" are, they OWN this place. We only comment here due to them busting their asses to put this place together.
If you don't like it, create your own web site, and welcome all to comment there. I suggest using Nill Hedge or Nada Hedge as the clever name for this new watering hole.
Hear here!
Create your own web site, and welcome all to comment,
Their auditioning at the Lost Weekend, hurry along with your Wurlitzer.
@Wurlhedge.com
Orly,,Are you Hear,hear,??
roflmao, only proves the point all you need for intelligence is intelligence
imho, hopkins is a very clear and thorough KISS analogy and all you need to know
in all honesty the visual graphic on Iran was hard too interpret, i mean if you don't know they have problems by now, and they are escalating, you just don't follow this stuff, the numerical probabilities chart is as sound a practice as you will get, i really don't care what software package one has
you need a tipping point for it too bend and another too break, and another to break completely, 3 strikes you're out
i see iran as still in 1, leaning towards 2, economic shock is what they need now, please please please 30 dollar oil comback little sheeba
GS, are you listening?
Thanks again Tyler and Marla, for all your hard work. I second the motion for finding a better and more confidential method of donation.
1. Shakespeare had it right, but little did he know that lawyers would morph into Judges and the only legal yardsticks would become Precedence (the past must be followed right or wrong), Economics (you may be right, but how big is your wallet), and Form (Justice- what's that)?
2. As regards DIO and HENRY, rather than starting from the premise of "Failing to Foresee" by the CIA, I would start from the premise of "Willfully Blind" or "Out of the Loop" by the Carter Administration. I have this in my filing cabinet under, "SUCCESS HAS MANY FATHERS, FAILURE IS AN ORPHAN"
3. I can tell you that Americans and others working construction projects in Iran in the mid 1970's always had the (then) Iranian army protecting them. The Shah, like all Divine Monarchs, lived in his palatial excesses and was surrounded by those who could leech from the State. Jimmy Carter knew or ought to have known the potential for toppling the Shah, with or without CIA analysis or assistance.
4. To Geopol et al, it is always a mistake to claim the ability to predict the future, for that is the prerogative of God (pick one), and I am told that chair is occupied. Your thesis seems to fall somewhere between (a) Be careful what you plan (wish) for; you just might get it and (b) The law of unintended consequences; the best laid plans of mice and men.... e.g. was the toppling of Saddam Hussein, creating a power vacuum that Khomeini's ilk in Iran were happy to fill, really a CIA plot that achieved it's objective ?
5. It was Dubya who was saved from being an oil company failure by the Saudis and it was Dubya who diverted American efforts from capturing Bin Laden to settling a family score with Saddam. It was Dubya and Cheney who let this Saudi thug run free.
6. I don't think it is possible to start up another Hot war or increase American presence in Afghanistan as a diversionary technique. With a jobless economy, that would be a Two-Front war that this Obama administration would surely loose.
But then, that would be trying to predict the future, wouldn't it ??
To Geopol et al, it is always a mistake to claim the ability to predict the future, for that is the prerogative of God (pick one), and I am told that chair is occupied.
Don't run to the false security that I believe in God just to construct your argument. As I don't...
This should now leave me free to exercise my own predictions based on current probabilities.
With your permission.
I never suggested you believed (or disbelieved) in God. I am agnostic on the subject, so I won't be (unilaterally and unfairly) calling in God for support.
If you wish to predict the future based on probabilities (allowing for "black swan events forming from converging/diverging dependent, independent and interdependent inputs), then may I suggest that it is always difficult to construct a weighty argument on the quicksand of a weak premise. Mathematics can always be jiggy-jigged to support the unsupportable.
Didn't the CIA draw the Tonka Truck cartoons that Colin Powell presented to the U.N. as mobile poison-gas trucks ? While (intentionally or unintentionally) destroying Powell's career, it also made the CIA look like a bunch of fools to the American public and the rest of the world.
So what is it ? Is the CIA some out-of-control Mandarin group pulling the strings on all politicians both foreign and domestic ? Or is it just another over-funded government bureaucracy with high ideals and the unhappy precision of execution of the Keystone Cops?
And yes, of course, you have my permission.
So what is it ? Is the CIA some out-of-control Mandarin group pulling the strings on all politicians both foreign and domestic ? Or is it just another over-funded government bureaucracy with high ideals and the unhappy precision of execution of the Keystone Cops?
Yes.
I am Chumbawamba.
How 'bout giving some of your charter members/commenter's a free pass to your `premium offerings for 2010` so we can continue bringing the funny, and bringing the scandals.
A set aside. Free access proportionate to the amount of welfare(corporate and individual) given out by Mr Obama. You know, to keep a level playing field. Staying harmonious with the real economy.
After all how can Anonymous stay Anonymous and informed?
It's good work and good effort. Much thanks.
But the only thing I should say is that I'm mixed on the thought of Zero Hedge beginning to offer a premium service.
What made Zero Hedge so great is that it offered actual information without forcing people to pay for that information. I know for a fact that you have had a lot of people contribute without requesting praise or credit, but now forces in ZH are moving to a pay model, forcing others to give praise in the form of monetary contributions for information. I think that lessens what ZH is and does... I'm not saying this in a sarcastic manner, I'm saying this in a very honest and genuine fashion.
If Google books had decided to move to a pay service, I would never have begun to read Fisher, Jevons or a multitude of economic works that most never had a chance to read before. By preventing the dissemination of information through structural barriers, you unintentionally create a segregation of knowledge. That's what our banking overlords want. Ignorance creates the sheeple, and while obviously Zero Hedge is here to inform the masses, the movement to a pay service would create the same old cycle all over again, losing the point of the amazing thing that Tyler, Marla, and the many other contributors have brought to the public.
But like I said, that's just my two cents. Another way to look at it is how the Joker said it "If you're good at something, never do it for free". But later in the movie, he burned all the cash. Why? Because everything burns and everything dies, so what use is a piece of paper or an entry in a ledger when you can do something greater?
Happy New Year.
Maybe that was their motivation all along. 2009 was a ZH Hope and Change campaign stump period. Getting as many people on board as possible. Then BAM, when we look for alternative news it's $19.99 a month suckers. Taken from the Howard Stern playbook just a shorter honeymoon.
Very Obama-like.
Now at the top of this page we have 'DARPA', 'zh-tshirt', 'store', 'donate', and soon 'Premium'. Not to mention the back of the house; google-ads, sales from the data harvest, $Reggie$ pollution, and others embedded ads(infomercials).
The real Tyler Durden would be fighting mad at this concept. On a long enough timeline errbody must pay.
I wonder how DARPA is working out?
You clearly haven't seen the movie. Tyler's funding came from the very corporate mass he attacks. In our case, financial advertising. The revolution is not free. (This is because our revolution is not a communist revolution).
Please don't spin me Dear one. In the book and movie, Tyler would never have taxed the fight club members. And never the "space monkeys".
Shall we have Chuck settle this little disagreement?
http://chuckpalahniuk.net
The people/animals who give generously of their time and wisdom by commenting, hot linking, buzzing about ZH, and anticipating tipping hats by sharing content/ideas are going to be taxed if they choose to follow your full voluptuous body of work.
Tisk tisk. Possibly the beginning of the end... Just another boom bust.
Having people purchase shirts is not a taxation, I'm happy ZH has materials like that to generate revenue, additionally who is not to say that Tyler did not have members pool funds from their day jobs into the neo-communist organization, Palahniuk would probably state that as the primary source of revenue for the organization.
The ad revenue is generating funds from the exact services that Tyler would have taken funds from. I think that's a damn good idea. I'm just objecting to the subscription service Scooby, not the ad revenue or the merchandise. Tyler, Marla and them put a massive amount of effort into this service and some renumeration is necessary to keep it going. Once again, I just object to a subscription service and this is one thing I won't be a jackass about because I understand their reasoning, it's a lot of damn work.
Sometime I wish the Interwebs had a handicap entrance.
Are you deef? This is Tyler mixing paraffin into the explosives!! Do you need me to spell it out for you any clearererer.
Uhhh and your point in reference to what I said? You didn't even quote me.
with all due respect to your position scoobysnack, methinks dear ole chuck would side against ya on this one. the crass commercialism of his site (named, get this, The Cult) makes ZH look like an anarchist BBS in comparison.
case in point, banner ad at the top: "The Best of SparkPeople, The #1 Diet and Fitness Site in America, Made Easy & Fun with a New 28 Day Program!"
on the internets you see, nothing is sacred, most especially one's beliefs.
Yep, and if you are blessed with Firefox there's always the NoScript and AdBlocker plug-ins if the banner ads are violating your priniciples and giving you conniption fits.
http://www.zerohedge.com/content/donate-zero-hedge
I am Chumbawamba.
thanks but i find it useful to be aware how my current mindset is being targeted by the botnet. keeps me on my toes.
I'm not asking for a cock-off. His website vs. ZH, rather an analysis. Would his Tyler Durden charge admission for the fighters who participate in the fight club.
If you believe that the people who visit, interact, and participate in the open feedback/comment section of ZH are corporate entities who should be required to pay to read the content then we are on a different page.
I'm assuming that you are a derivative of the original Tippie Canoe back on blogspot. A Fight Club Space Monkey.
au contraire mon ami canin, i choose to believe nothing of the sort. but then, me just a monkey howling in the ether (as chumba says) and also made a new year's resolution not to pee in the mashed potatoes. it's too early to break that promise just yet.
but since you asked for an analysis, i would propose that fight club, like all other 'stories' that take on a life of their own, contain meanings more subtle & profound than what can be found within the pages of the book itself.
thus, there may be as many 'tylers durden' in the world as there are people. and not all of them look like brad pitt.
Look, I'm arrogant and conceited but I in no way suffer from any delusion that my presence or even "contributions" here are in any way responsible for the success of ZH.
My time spent signing off my silly messages is a donation to the ether. Nothing more, nothing less.
Speaking of ether, I think you need to lay off the Scooby Snacks for a while.
I am Chumbawamba.
I'm trying to find someone to rewrite "Freaks Come Out At Night" by Whodini. Can you help?
I want it to be along the lines of "The Shill Come Out After Noon". Any suggestions would be great. TIA.
Sorry, I'm busy with my current project: Douchebags Who Comment Aimlessly on Financially Oriented Blogs, by Chumb A. Wamba.
You're in the acknowledgements.
I am Chumbawamba.
Marla
Provide some method to receive payment for great services rendered, other than electronic/internet.
PLEASE
We really aren't about to start giving out physical addresses, I'm afraid.
P.O. box ?
That would be a physical address.
Like you have a choice. Your box was rooted within 30 minutes from the time you first edited your dns setting at easydns.com.
Any member info, donation, or other communication is owned long before you even get the info.
Jimmy Carter spent 4 years dismantling CIA , and then when things went wrong , he blamed them ...... disgrace
Worst president ever .... though Obama is closing fast
I think you over-estimate the talents of Zachary Taylor.
But that Nixon, boy he was a peach. Have we mastered re-animation technology yet? It would be grand and only appropriate to let him finish out his second term.
But in all seriousity, you're right. Jimmy Carter just didn't have it in him. He was the only president to actually abide the Constitution, that boob.
I am Chumbawamba.
The REAL trouble with geopol is that he posts too many intellectually-indigestible multisyllablic thoughts. "we" really dumbed down muricans need simplicity....er, like black and white, like oprah and CNBC, yesireee easily digestible monosyllables only. da truth jes too hard to understand, even before you can decide to accept or reject? right fellas?
What is history, after all, to an amnesiac? all those big words. all those places with strange names on maps, which you jes cannot find... no matter how hard you try (see "dumb americans" on youtube for all too pervasive geographical - and hence geopolitical - challenges in murika). Arabia, you say, "wur is dat at?"
"But, but, but, but..." anton chimes in, "i have a masters in communications..... and an MBA" yes you do anton, therein lies the problem.
For as anton la-shyst rightly remarked, this is de gubmint's country, "they jes bust their ass to put this place together." hell yes, if you dont like their (attempted) censorship, go find your own country! Truly edifying and uplifting, thanks anton. words from a more highly evolved patriot clearly hard to find. anton fulsomely supports the the old totalitarian "they provide shelter, therefore serfs should not carp" refrain. Excuse gentle satire, Sir!
@ orly; er, was that "hear, hear," or "here, here," or "here, hear etc?" yes I know, probably a typo. google for clarification and historical root meaning if still befuddled.
geopol; by all means, do continue to cast your pearls before the 'tards. Bear in mind that what they most richly deserve, however, is thundering towards them at this very moment. the splintering collapse (now just commencing) of the world's truly most moronic and lobotomized country should be interesting to further observe.
do see www.peopleofwalmart.com for true state of the nation.
see also thoughts of igor panarin (russian analyst) who has predicted the coming collapse of the US for a decade or more. Anton, spend some time on this and report back to us on your thoughts (better get permission from marla first, so you dont upset anyone - this is THEIR site afterall).
a russian poster (yesterday on ZH) cited his need for a second migration (away from USA) and observed the abject and pitiful intellectual state of the union. He explained that, at least in the USSR, they knew what pravda was and observed that, whereas the soviets "knew it but couldnt say it (it=da truth), the muricans could say it but don't know it." One can only concur. It is in full and unexpurgated daily view on ZH.
Sammy da P
I personally believe, that U.S. Americans,
are unable to do so,
because uh,
some, people out there, in our nation don’t have maps.
and uh…
I believe that our education like such as in South Africa,
and the Iraq,
everywhere like such as…
and, I believe they should uh,
our education over here,
in the U.S. should help the U.S.
or should help South Africa,
and should help the Iraq and Asian countries so we will be able to build up our future,
for us.
#180117 Anonymous... Amen brother!
Never made a dime on any information posted on ZeroHedge. Frankly, sometimes the information is so essoteric and the analysis so rare that it has less than zero value. Good luck with the billing for content thingy.
Never made a dime on any information posted on ZeroHedge. Frankly, sometimes the information is so essoteric and the analysis so rare that it has less than zero value. Good luck with the billing for content thingy.
How true, essoteric indeed! BTW, would Geopol and others get paid for their (added) content? I find the comments the most important part. I want lots of opinions, not that of the owners predudices'
Mexico - the soon-to-be Somalia next door.
Independent pre-polling clearly vindicated the legitimacy of the Iranian elections. And forget about any revolution in Iran, as the "revolutionaries" consist mainly of westernized, highbrow-types who aren't about to risk creasing their Armani suits, much less getting their throats cut. The Revolutionary Guard is set for a massacre, if necessary.
Best ye get the mote out of thine own eye, and look closer to home for yur revolution.
ok, one question here: WHAT???
Happy New Year?????
I just read this entire thread, and took in all the side tracks, and waivers.
I wanted to put in something funny, but not.
Marla is boss, so we do accept her rules. Good manners.
Geopol has some incrediable info that just doesn't pop up any where. Credit him that.
Tonite was like a family fracture in many ways. Maybe it was the incredible direction all of this is taking the world and us with it. Unintended consequences will reign like tribbles. (startrek stuff)
We are still all pretty much on the same side. Let's leave it that way. What do I know?
+1
We are a family, one dedicated to truth.
It would be a shame to make people pay to hear it.
After all, haven't we all paid enough?
Woodward and Bernstein had a salary and expenses while they followed the $. How can virtue battle squids? ZH will still have the free site; wont they?
IMHO Zero Hedge will use the time tested Internet business model of providing good free content to attract the bees, some who might just purchase some premium fare. I suspect what you see today will not change, just more added for a price.
ZH has tapped into something here. I may not always agree with what they do but clearly they're not the cut-off-the-nose-to-spite-the-face type of people. It's a numbers game. Get enough people attracted to your site and some of them will pay for more.
Viva la ZH!
Then if I discover something extremely important (and actually I have and will be providing it soon, gratis as always) and donate it to Zero Hedge but then they turn around and sell this information, should I not be financially compensated as well?
That's one of my main objections. I am here for the revolution, the one that uplifts the masses. Not the one that teaches them to covet in the same usurious glee that is bringing the downfall of our society.
As for Woodward and Bernstein, they were not day traders, they did not know how to make money from "thin air".
I think that's a bit disingenuous. If you feel that way, don't contribute.
I am Chumbawamba.
How is that disingenuous? If anything, it's rather genuine and heartfelt.
Well, how is the prospect of ZH charging for "premium" (a term yet to be defined) content equivalent to "the same usurious glee that is bringing the downfall of our society"?
I am Chumbawamba.
For me, contributing was a reflex,however recent events on this thread have diminished that impulse considerably.
Woodward is ONI (Office of Naval Intelligence).
I did hear the hypothesis that Nixon had an independent streak and wasnt following all the orders.
'we'
'family'
stupido, i'm a nomad
the zh manifesto say nothing about 'we' and 'family'
please take you religious theories to a tea party at you local pizza hut
sit next to the fat woman who's not going to take it any more, and by that she means she's not going to take her pizza without
extra cheese any more
We means the PEOPLE.
You know the one's who are getting fucked by our government. As for you fiasco? I don't give a fuck if you're a nomad or a pizza delivery driver, you are a member of a larger whole. Stop thinking of only yourself you objectivist twit.
hey religious man, why does a whore make a good nun
because she already kneel a lot
we the people want to order pizza with double cheese and pepperoni
we the people want chicken wings with a side of hot sauce
we the people keep voting for republican or democrat and still expect a different result
nietzsche say madness in groups is the norm and exception in the individual
so finish your pizza slice you tea party rebel, and i forgot
are you have dessert too?
Did you go to a public school to write so poorly or is that a natural talent?
Your point was missed in your simplistic non-sensical ramblings. Who said I was religious? Usury is the proper name for interest, like it or not, no matter what Webster's 2.0 dictionary says.
Funny, I can be socialistic or religious... hrmmm, how about I just actually know what it's like to be poor and shit on while you're growing up. Of course, with your writing skills, you just might have grown up poor as well, obviously you have the ignorance part down.
mario is stupido of familia
he a flunk 3 grade like a three times, one a for each grade
we try keep a da helmet on him but he keep a take it off
when you a finish a play with mario please tell him go home to mama
yes, congratulations, in a few thousand words you have worked out that Iran is apparently "ripe" for revolution, with the implication of US complicity in the process.
my question though marla is, what is the bigger picture? at best your sample tool will be correct in predicting something that is basically happening already, however unveiling it a year or at least 6 months earlier would have certainly granted it some semblance of true utility. So this leads me to my next question, to which country will you apply this 'tool' next?
Finally as a disenchanted student and skeptic of the social sciences , I feel this 'tool' you have developed can best be addressed by this nobel lecture by Hayek: http://mises.org/daily/3229
if you-a a serious investor then you pay for news like stratfor
last night i had to endure another drunken tirade from nietzsche. he's a champagne drunk.
he's still angry because he lost louise
anyway, he say when something is falling, you give it a push
you buy your news because the regular media now only herds the weak. let it herd the weak
but if you an atheist and nomad like marla and tyler who want to be rich and buy a couple of camels,
you buy everything
i heard that marla no talk to you if you don't have at least 3 camels.
mario
i fights the turtles and the crabs
and you-a talking bout fucking camels with-a marla
frocio! get-a you ass-a back to the tubes
you going to look funny when i'm inside marla pants and you still chasing turtles
va fa coulo stupido mario!
you a gonna look-a funny when I a fuck you with the turtle
mama says get offada computer already, you run up a da phone bill!
Yeah, so do you want to pay an extra buck for Rupert Murdocks "Fox News"?
Tell us how they are supposed to pay for it if there are not enough donations $? HOW? When you come up with that answer and it is credible, then I will back your point of view.
No, I do agree with you there MsCreant... Like Marla said earlier, they write tons of stories EVERY day, including Saturday and Sunday... The question is how to compensate them for their time, Zero Hedge moving to a subscription service is a logical step, I'm just having a bit of ethical quandry at it and pointing out what they most probably have and do think of. It's not a question of whether it's right or wrong, it's a question of why they are fighting THIS particular fight. If they are doing it for the greater good, then the subscription service is a moral wrong. If they are doing it to advance their own particular point of view, then it's a moral (and fiscal) right.
I can't answer that question for them, they have to. I'm just attempting to point out a fulcrum point in the debate and stating my own personal view of the weight of both sides. It's clear where I stand, but I am not judging or condemning any point of view. However, to use the names Tyler and Marla and invoke the theme of fighting against the system would be wrong if it is for their OWN purposes and points of view, since charging people for knowledge is exactly the system we are fighting against, the intentional disinformation of the masses. A lie of omission is still a lie, even if omission can be circumvented for $9.95/Mo.
Once again, I am not being snarky (someone called me that before and damn I forgot how much I liked that word :P) I am just pointing out the moral inflection.
"...Zero Hedge moving to a subscription service is a logical step..."
Who said anything about ZH moving to a subscription service? Marla certainly didn't. She said they would be ADDING some premium content. Not once did she say she would subtract content that is already free. You, sir, are assuming way too much.
Hrmmm, I think I assume what many are assuming in this tangent. Nor has Marla come out and disputed it. I think part of the point was the conversation and the debate that would ensue, helping to shape their own opinion on whether to take the step. Any portion of this website requiring pay for information would mean a subscription model... obviously the best would be the "premium content". Does the WSJ printing the first paragraph for free mean that it's only "premium content" that you pay for? But then again, I assume a lot, as do you.
The blog will always be the blog and always be free.
what about the kick ass music, on friday nites, pumped directly into your home? how much would you pay to go to a club, and hang out with cool people. free is cool, but someone has got to pay the bills. children, don't understand, but adults should. you don't pay the power bill, they shut it off. how often do you log onto a government site, and revel in the quality content, your tax dollars fund? throw a few of those devalued frn's into the kitty.
The Shah of Iran was more or less removed from power by the West, in large part due to the abandonment of his historically reliable sponsors. He was a) increasingly obstinate & nationalistic when it came to energy issues in the '70s, b) precariously headed toward nuclear energy proliferation, and c) ill with cancer - which very few (aside from Western intel.) knew about inside Iran - without a viable successor in place.
His progeny was too young to take over, and his ways were generally tiring for Washington, NYC and London. His refusal to BP in '78 regarding renewing multi-year energy deals served as the last straw, and in January 1978, the signal was given for a) abandoning his reign and b) stoking protests & unrest against him abroad and domestically (in that order).
The Shah's own memoirs, published in 1980, are replete with his expressions of discontent over having been 'cut loose' by Rockefeller & Co., but the evidence trail doesn't stop there. German historian William Engdahl (who cites select Bilderberg meeting minutes), US author Robert Dreyfuss, and others of Persian and European dissent, have commented copiously on said Western 'black op' to oust him and replace him with a seemingly benign clerical regime (which, theoretically, would've 'stuck to leading the Shi'ite flock', versus messing with energy, nukes and geostrategic meddlings). Architects of the latter included one Bernard Lewis, as well as, of course, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
Upon being granted an entrance into the US, the Shah promptly visited David Rockefeller, Kissinger, et al. (see DR's memoirs), who 'lobbied' the Carter admin to let him into the US in the first place (against the wishes of Vance & others...).
Point: The Iranian Revolution wasn't a 'surprise' to our core seats of power, but rather, yet another regime change exercise. The key issue, then, involves how the ball was dropped vis-a-vis Khomeini, who turned the tables (or did he?!?) with his blessings to take/keep hostages and round up intel communications channels between the West and Tehran.
Plus, a wealth of YouTube videos lucidly illustrate the whys of the above, with no less of a figure than the Shah himself up front and center:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06Hb1S2vD8E - 1971
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndyGNIs3iN8&feature=related - 1973, increasing nationalism (almost Mossadegh-like, no?!?!?);
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJtdEUGl9vg - 1974
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imil1iIpIYA&feature=related - 1974 again, with British discontent expressed, only to be countered by his economic nationalism (or hubris, depending on one's political POV);
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCMftp2bdJA&feature=related - 1976, Mike Wallace pointing out to the Shah that the CIA thinks he's a "megalomaniac", and an "uncertain ally";
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQgZ3oLp_WY&feature=related - 1974 & '76 - speaks for itself;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiUQO7wgcyw&feature=related - 1975, nuclear deterrence/'me-too' issues;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trueC64zqZI&feature=related - 1977, oil nationalism;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrCK6CD1dKM – 1978, interesting info about CIA involvement in Iran, oil & defense issues, where possibly too much disclosure was given by the indiscreet monarch - prescient issues involving Iran TODAY;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBUtpc7MwNg&feature=related - 1978 again, with French discontent expressed;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgLJ8m62HuU&NR=1 - 1978 again;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7Z-ORkIjpA&feature=related - 1979, fringy looking video, yet with invaluable 1973 commentary by the Shah on oil nationalism, as well as 1979 ABC News reporting on the US's disavowal of the Shah's rule;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgy0wmu6NKw&feature=related - 1980 footage of the Shah spelling it out for David Frost (who was assigned to dilute the Shah's book claims in general in said interview; FYI, the BBC was Khomeini's loudspeaker in Iran during his rise to power);
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5Ae5FRHH0k&feature=related - 1980 debates, with Reagan admonishing Carter for "undercutting a stalwart ally...and I am not at all convinced that [the Shah] was that far out of line with his people or that they wanted [his overthrow] to happen...but we turned it over to a maniacal fanatic...[emphasis added];
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kBLLuiJm8s&feature=related - 2007, Carter: "After the Shah was overthrown and [Khomeini took over], we continued our diplomatic relations with Iran..." Duh.
Other, wider point: Iran, regardless of who or what runs it, is too nationalistic for Anglo-American interests, and thus must be balkanized. Unfortunately, the Iranians, Russians, Chinese and other nations know this imperative on the part of the West, and are preparing for it...
Thus proving that no matter what revenue model ZH comes up with, there will always be excellent value in the comments section.
http://www.zerohedge.com/content/donate-zero-hedge
I am Chumbawamba.
Its the responses that draw me to zerohedge. It lets me know i am not alone or insane in a world of multiple illusions. Yes , there are good articles I often fail to adequately comprehend. The responders often give further clarification.
Thanks to all of you more folks are stocking up on food , silver and ammo. That will save lives later. So I guess you all are a bunch of life savers.
I reccommend this site frequently, as I want others informed and prepared also.
an interesting post from Ed Harrison
Blogging and the tyranny of governmentmarg bar shah, kids.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fxwYiIvkpE
Cox communications just blocked TV shack... the war on internet freedom is being fought.
freedom or piracy? looks like the same old war against internet piracy
Eh, piracy, freedom....
Personally I love Hulu's model.
is the premium service offering a sign that you are now ready to short gold?
really intersting summary on the most imporant gold-related stories of 2009: http://www.goldalert.com/stories/Gold-Price-in-2009-A-Gold-Bull-Market-YearEnd-Review
By waiting six weeks to acknowledge the Shah of Iran's congratulations on winning the 1976 election, and telling our intelligence community that he did not think our early warning devices (radar I believe) pointed at Russia were needed anymore, Carter sent the same signal that JFK and RFK sent about regime change in Vietnam.
For those amatuer historians reading this, have any of you blamed Carter for 9/11 yet, because he is in the pipeline of "The Law of Unintended Consequences" as laid out by historian and Hoover Fellow, Victor Davis Hanson.
Political cowardice regarding Vietnam, and Christopher Hitchen's most favorite living war criminal/weasel Henry Kissinger, gave us 9/11. If you are thinking right now how ridiculous that is, I would invite you to send VDH a note at his website that you read he stated the following as to what brought us to 9/11.
Our refusal in Vietnam by LBJ to even desire victory prevented what was headed towards a DMZ such as now seen on the Korean penninsula. (my addition: Kissinger purposely made Nixon look like a madman ready to nuke China and stetched out the talks that allowed the cowards to march in DC and on campuses. More proof on that in a moment***)
With the loss of spine by many Americans and most politicians regarding Vietnam, a war Democrat JFK started, Vietnam showed the Soviets that we were a paper tiger with missiles until Reagn came along. That brought us, as per VDH -
* one million+ boat people
* one million+ dead or in eductation camps
* The Khmer Rouge and the Killing Fields
(*** Any protest by the draft dodgers over these deaths? No...NONE...the draft dodgers were cowards and they probably got the clap. Sex was long ago used to find some to lead others in a nation and the war protests had the full backing of the Soviets...and John FKN Kerry)
* The taking of the Embassy hostages for 444 days
* The Soviets in Central America
* The Soviets in Afghanistan
* The US backing of the Mujahadeen against the Soviets
* The morphing of the Mujahadeen into the Taliban and Al Queda as they believed they were the reason the Soviet Union fell and not Reagn out-spending a nation that could not get nylons on a shelf to keep the women happy
And after all of that, the bastard child of the Mujahadeen gave us 9/11 !
Disagree? Write to VDH to discuss it as I have heard him state it a number of times in his questioning what Obama (The Bower and soon to be Genuflector in-chief) will cause when he screws up a war we have already lost as he told our enemies when he is leaving them alone and breaking our word yet again. Even Frank Church didn't go that far when he tried to disassemble the CIA. Obama has bigger plans....destroy America's hegemony just as was done to Holland, Spain, and England.
For those of you in your 20s and early 30s, I am sad to say that you will never know what it felt like to be an American. Now, others want to take over the world. We are surely not perfect, but think of the last 100 years without America and Orwell would have been writing 1944, not 1984.
Socrates
Victor Davis Hanson
Funny. This guy violates two of my rules:
1) He uses his full name publicly...very pretentious.
2) He's like a founding member of the Neocon Cabal. What possible use could any of his conclusions be other than to engender enmity towards brown people in the Middle East who are sitting on OUR oil?
If you're going to use a handle like "Socrates", please at least be half as intelligent.
I am Chumbawamba.
>>I am Chumbawamba.<<
No, you are a pompous arse who thinks he/she/it is bright when you aren't at all.
Sorry pal...learn some history.
Socrates
Here's a seperate post for your gifted intellect to respond to, smarty pants:
Tell us all where VDH is wrong with regard to the sequence of events where our leaving Vietnam in disgrace set the wheels in motion for our enemies to be draw to a date in history which is now 9/11.
Surely the great Chubawca can handle this task. Or were you burning a draft card during Vietnam and remain mesmerized by Johnny Kerry's green uniform? LOL
Socrates
P.S. Try to not use catch phrases and deal with the issue, ye of little wit.
A lot of Victor Davis Hansen's favorite conjectures were contradicted by the subsequently opened archives of the Soviet Union and the Vietnamese.
I agree with the poster than said any leader of Iran is likley to be too nationalistic for Anglo tastes
But....in the long run...as Russian oil and gas reserves are draining rapidly (with a crisis approaching in 16 years) they may very well encroach on Iran once again. After all, the Tudeh Communist Party was actually larger than the Soviet Communist Party in the 1920-1950's and one of the northern Iranain Provinces was a part of the Soviet Union in the 1920's. Of course, Russia also invaded Iran in 1941 and stayed strengthening the Tudeh until 1947.
As the US leaves the ME and Central Asia (inevitable imho) watch the Russians start to provide more and more "help" to the oil and gas industry of Iran. Their competition will not be the USA. It will be China.
imho
Well, since there has been a major, well-funded US Intel effort to de-stabilize Iran since 2007, it should not surprise that their metrics indicate that possibility.
Too bad you got rid of Saddam - you could've had him give it another go on your behalf.
Very interesting article. I have a few suggestions, but please take them with a grain of salt since I am biased toward lines of thinking that work for me personally.
I have to disagree with the whole quantatative approach since, as you mentioned, it introduces a lot more subjectivity into the analysis. Seeing that red blob was stimulating and exiting and all but this kind of thinking always leads to trouble. Next thing you know you'll be quantifying real time updates on the Iran situation putting in some numbers into the google doc and waiting for the blob to just grow big enough to blow so that your oil futures calls come through. Where is that natural disaster, damnit!
As an alternative I would suggest pattern recognition for this task. I have to brush up on my revolution history but I'm pretty sure the closest pattern to 1979 was broken after the riots ended without an overthrow. Not to say that there aren't other threads that are open, but for the time being it looks like It is the harder way to go, especially for today since the number of patterns is overwhelming, but I believe the proper application of such an approach would yield the best results.
Whatever the case I can really appreceite the effort and would agree that the country is indeed near the precifice. I look forward to the premium service as it looks to have some very interesting information.