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Petrodollar Mercantilism Explained In One Chart

The underlying concept of how Petrodollar recycling, or as some call it, petrocurrency mercantilism works, leaves some confusion. So in order to alleviate that, here courtesy of Cult State, is a quick and simple primer that should hopefully answer all questions.



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Financial Collapse Leads To War

Financial collapse is already baked in, and it's only a matter of time before it happens, and precipitates commercial collapse when global supply chains stop functioning. Political collapse will be resisted, and the way it will be resisted is by starting as many wars as possible, to produce a vast backdrop of failure to serve as a rationale for all sorts of “emergency measures,” all of which will have just one aim: to suppress rebellion and to keep the oligarchy in power.



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In "Unprecedented Move" Nobel Peace Prize Chairman Demoted For Decision To Give Obama 2009 Award

In "an unprecedented move", the controversial head of Norway's Nobel Peace Prize committee was removed Tuesday and demoted to the rank of mere member.  Thorbjoern Jagland, a former Norwegian premier, drew criticism after becoming committee chairman in 2009 for awarding the prestigious Nobel to newly elected US President Barack Obama. He will be replaced by current Deputy Chair Kaci Kullmann Five.



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Fed Policy For Dummies (In 2 Simple Charts)



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Howard Marks On Luck And Skill In Investing

The person who successfully predicts the decline of the price of oil or gets the highest return in a given year is lionized by The Wall Street Journal. In the short term, it is impossible to know whether this success was due to luck or skill, but it will come out in the long term because it is hard to be lucky for 20 years. Marks said he has been successful by not taking bets that could lose dramatically, by mitigating loss, and by being consistent rather than having brilliant successes outweighed by dismal failures. Successful investing comes from “variant perception,” Marks said, where the consensus view is incorporated into the price of the asset and you have a different view from the consensus. If your variant view is correct, then eventually the consensus comes to agree with you and the price moves favorably in your direction. Marks said if you think investing is easy and you do not see the complexities, you will not be successful.



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How Mario Draghi Is Putting Pensioners At Risk

Accommodative monetary policy, which is ostensibly supposed to stimulate aggregate demand thereby encouraging businesses to spend and hire, is now perversely causing people to work longer and preventing new employees from having access to a secure retirement.



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The Water Wars Are Coming

A century of government meddling has turned the issue of water rights on its head, and further centralized control of waterways in local, state, and federal governments. Just as the residents of Los Angeles fought over water with local farmers, the residents of Las Vegas will soon find themselves fighting with surrounding states over what’s left of Lake Mead. None of the power players seem to care that the current population settlements of the southwestern United States cannot last. One day the water will run out. The sooner this reality is confronted, the better.



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Crude Jumps After API Inventories Build Less Than Expected

The last three times that API inventories reported (each notably greater than expected), crude prices tumbled (only to ramp hilariously the next day following DOE inventory data). Against Bloomberg estimates of a 3.95 million barrel build, API printed only a 2.89 million barrel build; and WTI crude prices surged to the day's highs.



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As The Battle For Tikrit Begins, A Map Of Who Controls What

As the world awaits to see if following his speech, Israel's PM will now proceed with launching a full on assault on Iran just to show he means business, or at least stage yet another false flag intervention to greenlight war in the middle east, several hundred kilometers to the northeast, the biggest offensive in the "war on ISIS" is now taking place after thousands of Iraqi soldiers and Shi'ite militiamen seek to retake the northern Iraqi town and birthplace of Saddam Hussein, Tikrit. And since there is much confusion all around since pretty much everyone in the middle east is now involved in this war on Iraqi/ISIS soil, here is a simple map showing who controls what..



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This Is What Happens When The Government Cracks Down On Subprime Auto Loans

A running theme here has been the great rotation of bubble-blowing credit from subprime housing to subprime auto-loans. Amid government probes of underwriting standards and soaring delinquencies, it appears when the least-creditworthy Americans are cut off from debt servitude, bad things happen in car sales... FORD FEB. U.S. LIGHT-VEHICLE SALES FALL 2.0%, EST. UP 5.8% (miss!). Worst Still - US Domestic Vehicle Sales Worst Start To The Year Since 2010. Of course, the real blame - as we will be told - is the weather... It seems Obama's new American Dream of a brand new Ford or GM (or Maserati) in every driveway may be another broken promise.



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Treasury 'Short Overhang' Lifts After Actavis Prices 2nd Largest Bond Issue Ever

Just a day after Blackrock saw its biggest Bond ETF outflows in history ($525.8 million pulled on Monday), Actavis sold $21 billion of almost-junk 'BBB-' rated debt (at a minsicule yield of only 3.5%) in the 2nd largest bond issuance ever (2nd only to Verizon's massive $49 billion deal in 2013). The issue was oversubscribed 4.5x (around $90bn in the order book) as a ten-part offering varying from 18-month floaters to 30Y fixeds all went off below guidance. With Treasury liquidty disappearing fast, one wonders just how much rate-locking on this massive deal was responsible for a net short overhang on the Treasury complex the last few days...



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Only 17% Of Americans See The US As The World's Economic Superpower

Echoing former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ quip, “There is surely something odd about the world’s greatest power being the world’s greatest debtor,” it appears that economic reality is finally beginning to set in for Americans... Only hours ago, Gallup released a new poll showing that only a small minority (just 17%) of Americans still view the US as the world’s economic superpower.



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GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Calculates Q1 Growth Of Only 1.2%

While every other word from talking-heads and policy-makers relates various anecdotes (or simple lies) about US economic growth, The Atlanta Fed appears to have taken a 'data-dependent' perspective on the real economy (as opposed to smoke and mirrors). Based on their GDPNow "nowcasting" model, The Atlanta Fed projects Q1 2015 GDP growth os just 1.2% (less than half current sell-side economist consensus) and getting weaker...



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