Gold And The Fiat End-Game
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 14:06
Our current fiat currency standard is terminal, nations around the world are dropping the U.S. dollar as a medium of exchange, central banks are buying gold, and Americans are seeing price inflation during an economic downturn. In order to avoid a systemic financial crisis here in the U.S., we need to focus on solutions. This mini-documentary expounds the problems and a solution to the real economic crisis hiding under the safety blanket of an equity market at all-time highs.
- Comments: 106
- Reads: 19,205
"Those Who Believe In Abenomics Are Suffering From Amnesia"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 20:03
When shown the magnificent run-up in Japanese equities over the past six months and asked why he is skeptical about the likely success of Abenomics, Mizuho's chief economist simply explains, "because I am not suffering from amnesia," as the rest of the market appears to be. He goes in this brief interview with the FT to explain there is nothing new here. We already saw massive fiscal expenditure in the 1990s (which failed to gain any real economic traction) and as far as quantitative easing, Ueno reminds his interviewer, we saw major QE between 2001 and 2006 (that failed), Furthermore, the so-called growth strategy, "every Japanese cabinet has undertaken such doctrines without any success." The discussion then switches from the dashing of hopes to the risks of the policy. Five minutes well spent this weekend to remind your momentum-driven recency-biased anchored view of the world that there is nothing new under the sun and moar is not always better...
- Comments: 4
- Reads: 533
Guest Post: The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 19:03
The biggest fear of the Federal Reserve has been the deflationary pressures that have continued to depress the domestic economy. Despite the trillions of dollars of interventions by the Federal Reserve the only real accomplishment has been keeping the economy from slipping back into an outright recession. However, when looking at many of the economic and confidence indicators, there are many that are still at levels normally associated with previous recessionary lows. Despite many claims to the contrary the global economy is far from healed which explains the need for ongoing global central bank interventions. However, even these interventions seem to be having a diminished rate of return in spurring real economic activity despite the inflation of asset prices. The risk, as discussed recently with relation to Japan, is that the Fed is now caught within a "liquidity trap." The Fed cannot effectively withdraw from monetary interventions and raise interest rates to more productive levels without pushing the economy back into a recession. The overriding deflationary drag on the economy is forcing the Federal Reserve to remain ultra-accommodative to support the current level of economic activity. What is interesting is that mainstream economists and analysts keep predicting stronger levels of economic growth while all economic indications are indicating just the opposite.
- Comments: 16
- Reads: 2,231
First, Gold; Second, Japanese Equities; Who's Next For The 8-Sigma Risk Flare?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 17:48
It is not just the massive short positioning in Gold futures that has BofAML's commodity strategists concerned; but the regime changes in the precious metal's volatility structures suggests risks are significantly mispriced relative to equities, rates, and other commodities. Following the most abrupt price collapse in 30 years, near-dated implied volatility in gold spiked dramatically in the past month. The term structure of implied gold volatility has also changed shape and the market now shows a marked put skew. Even then, the spike in precious metals volatility had remained a rather isolated event until this week’s sharp drop in Japanese equities. As the following chartapalooza demonstrates, while large-scale QE has tempered volatility across all asset classes for months, we remain concerned about the recent sharp price movements in gold or Japanese equities, and see a risk that other bubbling asset classes may follow.
- Comments: 16
- Reads: 4,435
With The Unwind Approaching, Here Are $18.6 Billion SAC Capital's Largest Stock Positions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 16:46
Nearly three years ago, following the publishing of "Is The SEC's Insider Trading Case Implicating FrontPoint A Sting Operation Aimed At S.A.C. Capital?" which exposed the key aspects of SAC's insider trading strategy, and which linked SAC, and the hedge fund world in general, to expert networks three weeks before virtually anyone outside of the 2 and 20 (or 3 and 50 as the case may be) world had heard of them and before they became a household euphemism for insider trading, we expected the full rabid fury of the world's best paid legal team to fall upon us. It didn't, which meant only one thing: we were correct, or they had bigger fish (to avoid harpooning) on their mind. Turns out it was both.
- Comments: 21
- Reads: 7,477
Bill Black: Our System Is So Flawed That Fraud Is Mathematically Guaranteed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 15:22
In this extensive interview, Bill explains why financial fraud is the most damaging type of fraud and also the hardest to prosecute. He also details how, through crony capitalism, it has become much more prevalent in our markets and political system. A warning: there's much revealed in this interview to make your blood boil. “When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." - Frederic Bastiat
- Comments: 47
- Reads: 9,699
Broke Detroit's Pension Fund "Trustees" Use Public Funds To Fund Hawaii Trip
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 12:46
"When you have city employees, police, and firefighters have taken pay cuts, it doesn't look good," is the somewhat understated response from Detroit's emergency manager to the city's latest debacle. Amid the deepening financial crisis the crumbling region faces, four trustees of its public pension funds spent $22,000 of retirement funds to attend a conference at Waikiki Beach, Honolulu. "It's one of these things we trustees must do to stay on top of the field," is how one of the trustees defended the decision, a second would not comment, and the other two could not be found according to Reuters (we can only imagine what they were up to). Conference representatives noted that "these are intelligent folks there to do a job, not there for vacation," yet many funds did decide to boycott the event as it sent the wrong message. But irony of ironies, Detroit decided it was appropriate - perhaps since one well attended session covered 'how to avoid front-page scandals.'
- Comments: 125
- Reads: 7,815
What The Bulls Must Believe
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 11:26
Even if the monetary fuel for this whirl of self-reinforcement is not lacking, the market still needs a narrative around which it can cluster psychologically. It needs a canon of shared myth about which the bard can weave a reassuringly familiar refrain so as to reinforce the sense of community when the members of the clan gather to listen to his warblings amid the flickering fires and guttering torchlight of the Great Hall at night. Despite the bubbles everywhere, hastily shrugged off by the Chairman-in-chief we must add, we are still all suckers for a good saga. As far as we can see, the current narrative contains several key themes... What could possibly go wrong?
- Comments: 39
- Reads: 7,132
The Gods Of The Marketplace
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2013 - 10:27
Investors borrowed $384.4 billion in April, a 1.3% gain from the previous month and a 29% rise from the same month last year. This is an all-time record for margin debt and it exceeds the previous high mark set in June 2007. Some may see this as an increased sign of investor confidence but we are not among them. To me this is a giant red warning flag blowing in the financial breeze indicating the leveraging of dumb money making very risky bets. We are once again in the crack house of substance abuse! In each age the gods of the marketplace show up once more. The packaging may be different but the powder is the same. Each dealer uses the same line, "Nothing addictive here."
- Comments: 53
- Reads: 8,609
Jack Lew's Triple Whammy - IRS Ignorance, Corzine Corruption, And The 'War On The Poor'
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 21:35
While some, we are sure, will view this brief clip as partisan showmanship by Representative Steve Pearce, the questions he asks Treasury Secretary should surely be responded to in some manner that is anything but the typical perfunctory shrug these matters normally garner. From Lew's apparent disbelief that the IRS Audits debacle was in any way 'political' to Lew's "waiting for the investigation' on Jon Corzine's misappropriation of funds, and finally to the "War on the Poor" that Pearce describes the current administration's policies (for the benefit of Wall Street); these few minutes are well worth some time as we 'remember' this weekend.
- Comments: 184
- Reads: 20,778
Guest Post: Are Pipeline Spills A Foregone Conclusion?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 20:58
Exxon Mobil hasn't asked federal regulatory authorities to restart the Pegasus oil pipeline, which burst open in a neighborhood in Mayflower, Ark. In March, a 22-foot rupture in the pipeline spilled about 5,000 barrels of diluted Canadian crude oil into an area of marshland, though the company said it's been effectively cleaning the area with long-term remediation in mind. Talking points over pipelines are focused on economic and energy security interests on one side of the argument versus emissions and cleanup on the other. Given the legacy of pipeline spills since the Keystone XL debate began more than four years ago, the "real" issue may be the lack of debate over just why so many of these pipelines have burst open in the first place.
- Comments: 94
- Reads: 7,596
Abenomics 101 - The 15 Most Frequently Asked Questions
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 20:20
With the first arrow of Abenomics perhaps hitting its limit, it will be the second and third arrows that need to occur quickly and aggressively to carry this momentum forward (and for the economy to grow into stock valuations). Barclays lays out 15 of its most frequently asked questions below but concerns remain as the BoJ’s planned absorption of nearly 80% of new JGB issuance from the markets this fiscal year has triggered a dramatic change not only in JGB supply/demand and ownership structure but in the JGB market risk profile itself, which has moved from “low carry, low volatility and high liquidity (superior to other assets from perspective of risk-adjusted returns or Sharpe ratio)” to “low carry, high volatility and low liquidity (inferior from same perspective)”. Barclays added that with a wave of major political and policy events ahead, starting with a crucial Upper House election, there was no big change in the basic belief among foreign investors that Japan is likely to be the main source of surprise for the global economy and of volatility in financial markets.
- Comments: 33
- Reads: 10,541
Guest Post: One Experience That Really Shaped My Thinking
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 19:23
...It seemed like every week we would hear about some terrorist with a suitcase-sized bomb, and the bureaucrats would dive into a lively debate about whether or not to evacuate the Americans. One day, I remember, my friend who was the senior ranking non-commissioned officer interrupted and said, “What about the Swedes? Do we evacuate the Swedes too?” The embassy staff looked at each other, shrugged a bit, “Oh sure, sure, we’ll coordinate with Washington on that.” And the discussion continued. “What about the Saudis?” Silence again. And then he really made his point. “It’s not just about Americans, you know. [others] blood is worth something too.”
- Comments: 155
- Reads: 17,792
Forget Prayer, It's Lamb Slaughter Time: A Rational Man's Response To All Time High Gold Shorts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 18:47
Two days ago we suggested that "they better pray there is no short squeeze." Today, following the just released latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data which showed that the Comex gold short position grew once again to a new all time high of 79,416 shorts, all prayers are now off. If we may be so bold as to we suggest, the time has come to upgrade to the sacrificial slaughtering of at least a lamb on the altar of Saint Ben, because even the tiniest hint of a forced cover will now result in the biggest rip your face off levered short squeeze seen in the history of the yellow metal. Maybe throw in an ink cartridge or two for good measure...
- Comments: 351
- Reads: 55,077
What 9 Company Hedge Books Are Revealing About The Natural Gas Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/24/2013 - 18:13
You can see it clear as day in their hedging strategies... Natural gas producers are increasingly bearish on prices for their sector. With more firms hedging, investors looking for upside from rising gas prices need to be careful about where they put their money - especially today. With hedging activity rising the last few years, good deals in the hedge market are getting hard to find.
- Comments: 20
- Reads: 8,656
