Why Guggenheim Believes The 10 Year Treasury Will Drop Below 1%

"Central banks around the world, reacting to the same recessionary fears, are likely to cause long rates to sink materially lower than where we are today. I see the 10-year Treasury note falling to 1 percent, perhaps even lower, before year-end. According to technical analysis, the current target bottom for the 10-year Treasury note is 28 basis points!"

In "Dramatic Escalation," China Sends Fighter Jets To Disputed Islands

On Tuesday, multiple media outlets jumped at the opportunity to report that China has built radar facilities at Cuarteron Reef, Beijing’s southern-most South Pacific sandcastle. But that, as it turns out, isn't the big news. Just moments ago, GOP mouthpiece Fox News said China has now deployed fighter jets to Woody Island, where imagery from ImageSat International (ISI) showed two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers in place earlier this month.

The Fatal Flaw That Has Doomed Our Economy

Money doesn’t have to be “hard” or “soft” or expensive or cheap. But it has to be honest. Otherwise, the whole system runs into a ditch. But the new money was a phony. It put the cart ahead of the horse. This was money that no one ever had to break a sweat to get. It was based on credit – the anticipation of work, not work that had already been done. Money no longer represented wealth. It now represented anti-wealth: debt.

Oil Crashes After API Reports Massive Crude Build

After last week's roller-coaster ride (API "draw" vs DOE "build"), tonight's API data (following Al-Naimi's reality check this morning) was much heralded. After DOE reported builds across the entire complex last week, and expectations of a 3mm barrel build, API reported a massive 7.1mm build and a bigger than expected 307k build at Cushing. Gasoline inventories also rose more than expected (for the 15th week in a row). WTI plunged at the NYMEX close and was limping lower into the API print and then collapsed at the massive build hit...

"Debt Is The Cause, Not The Cure"

The massive indulgence in debt, what the Austrians refer to as a “credit induced boom”, has now reached its inevitable conclusion. This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels going into the future. We will witness an economy plagued by more frequent recessionary spats, lower equity market returns and a stagflationary environment as wages remain suppressed while costs of living rise. Correlation or causation? You decide.

 

The Good(ish), The Bad, & The Ugly Of Equity Valuations

The good news is that lower rates can justify higher valuations, but as former Morgan Stanley guru Gerard Minack explains, the bad news is lower earnings growth. In Minack's view the rally from the 2011 lows was the equity market factoring in the beneficial part of the story: re-rating on the back of a low discount rate; but, markets are only now starting to focus on the corollary: lower trend earnings growth. With the prospective P/E of the S&P500 is now at an 'ugly' all-time high relative to the medium term EPS forecasts, and downgrades set to continue based on macro weakness, equity valuations suggest this 'correction' is far from over.

Who Will Be Left Standing At The End Of The Oil War

This is a financial cold war - nothing more, nothing less. The variables of the breakeven game favor U.S. shale. But Saudi Arabia won’t give up the cold war path easily because its ultimate goal is to preserve its market share at all costs.

Goldman Asks: "What Should We Make Of The Growing Link Between Oil And EM Currencies?"

"Recent fluctuations in the oil price appear to be driven by supply shifts specific to the oil market, not shifts in demand that can be used to make meaningful inferences about the health of the global economy [and] while fluctuations in the oil price, whatever their cause, are likely to affect oil currencies such as the RUB, MXN and COP, it is less clear why supply-driven fluctuations in the oil price would drive other EM currencies, including those of oil importers like INR."

Arms Sales To Saudi Arabia And Qatar Almost Triple In Four Years

Weapons imports by Saudi Arabia and Qatar have rocketed by over 275 percent over the past four years, a new report found on Monday. Between 2011 and 2015, Gulf states were the most significant market for sales by the United States, the world’s biggest arms exporter, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) found.

Foreign Central Banks Pile Into Strong 2 Year Treasury Auction

Following the surprising swoon in the Treasury complex which overnight slid lower following the German Bunds lower, only to rebound after Naimi sent oil sliding, it was not clear how big demand would be for today's $26 billion auction in 2 Year paper. Moments ago we got the answer, and it was "solid", with the high yield printing at 0.752%, pricing through the 0.763% When Issued by 1.1 bps, and the lowest yield since Septmber 2015.

How Italy Will Fail And Drag Down The European Project

Italy is big enough to matter (it is the eight largest economy on the planet), but so uneventful that most does not pay any attention to what is going on there. We contend that Italy will, during the next year or two, be on everyone’s radar screen as it has the potential to derail the European project for real.