"Eurozone Breakup" Fears Soar As Fund Managers Now Think Probability Of Greek Deal Same As Default

While the optimistic bias is shifting, if slowly, one place where the "fund managers" are at least admitting that things are changing for the worse in Europe is their latest, June, estimation of the biggest tail risks. Here, while "geopolitical crisis" and a behind-the-curve Fed still remain in the top two "tail risks", at 21% and 20% respectively, just as they were last month, what is concerning is the third most prevalent fear which, at 18%, is a Eurozone breakup. It is notable that one month ago this fear did not even register, suggesting just how fragile the Eurozone was and still remains.

US Opens With Panic-Buying Algo Stop Run

Deja vu all over again... because a resoundingly defiant tone from Tsipras is just what the algos needed to jerk futures up to yesterday's highs and run the stops...

Russian Pivot: Greek PM Schedules Putin Meeting Ahead Of "Lehman Weekend"

With his back against the wall, and with Syriza party hardliners apparently no closer to backing concessions, Alexis Tsipras looks set to once again play the ‘Russian pivot” card, as the Kremlin says a “working meeting” between the Greek PM and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now scheduled for Friday in St. Petersburg.

"Major" Equity Index Breaking Down

For all of the longer-term, ancillary red flags and concerns that have materialized in the latter portion of this cyclical bull market (many of which, we have laid out), bulls have had the same response: price is all that matters. It appears to us, however, that a great many bulls preaching “price patience” have failed to recognize one thing: there is already evidence of a breakdown in prices. The “stock market” consists of many segments, not just the S&P 500, So it depends where you are looking.

Disgraced Rachel Dolezal Breaks Silence In Interview, Says "I Identify As Black"

In a unicorn-esque moment, when asked "are you an African-American woman?" the former NAACP official Rachel Dolezal told The Today Show's Matt Lauer, "I identify as black." As NPR notes, the topic of Dolezal's race has prompted surprise, bewilderment and speculation since her parents said that contrary to their estranged daughter's claims of being of mixed race, Rachel Dolezal is white.

Cashing In On The Death Of The "American Dream": Rental Permits Soar Most Since 1990

If it wasn't clear to everyone that the "old normal" American Dream of buying and owning a house is now dead and buried, then today's just announced housing starts and permits data put the last nail in that particular coffin, because as we noted earlier while single-family housing starts dropped once again, this time to a level last seen in October, the real story was in housing permits. But not single-family permits: multi-family ones, aka rental buildings, just had the biggest monthly surge since June 2008, jumping 26% in one month, and a whopping 54% from a year ago!

Housing Starts Plunge 11% As April "Bounce" Fades, Permits Soar To 8 Year High

Following April's hope-filled spike in Housing Starts and Building Permits SAAR (and the exuberant jerk to 10 year highs in NAHB Sentiment), May data is more mixed. Housing Starts plunged 11.1% MoM (against expectations of a 4% drop) missing for the 3rd of last 4 months. Permits, on the other hand, spiked 11.8% (againmst expectations of a 3.5% drop) smashing the hope to its highest since August 2007. So - in summary - hope is soaring, reality is falling and all the hope is based on America as 'rental nation' with a record number of multi-family unit permits.

Tsipras Slams "Criminal" IMF In Defiant Speech

In the wake of reports that Greece could be headed for a "Lehman Weekend" complete with capital controls and an "emergency" Sunday meeting, the headlines are coming fast and furious on Tuesday morning, with Tsipras calling the IMF's stance "criminal" and Merkel digging in for the worst.

Bank Of America Begins 66-Day Countdown Until The "Ghost Of 1937" Returns

The last time the Fed tried to exit a period of massive balance sheet expansion coupled with ZIRP - back in 1937 - its strategy completely failed. The Fed tightening in H1’37 was followed in H2’37 by a severe recession and a 49% collapse in the Dow Jones. This is the ghost of 1937 and it is about to make a repeat appearance.

Frontrunning: June 16

  • Greek PM sticks to hard line as contagion hits euro zone bonds (Reuters)
  • Greek Deadlock Has Leader Hoping for Miracle to Avoid Default (BBG)
  • Greek Showdown Puts Merkel's Teflon Legacy at Risk (BBG)
  • Greek standoff saps Europe, dollar swings ahead of Fed (Reuters)
  • Allianz Increased Holdings of Greek Debt as Its Largest Investor (BBG)
  • French Bonds Infected as Greek Crisis Swells Euro-Region Spreads (BBG)
  • Statoil to cut 1,500 more jobs as savings drive intensifies (FT)
  • UnitedHealth, Anthem Seek to Buy Smaller Rivals (WSJ)
  • Five Million Reasons Why China Could Go to War (BBG)

It’s Not Only Greece This Morning.

It’s not only Greece this morning. Things just don’t seem to be functioning smoothly anywhere. More arrests in Hong Kong, delays to the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Exchange link, Kuroda having to say he didn’t mean what he said, weaker start to the new month’s numbers in the U.S., an Indian export number that put paid to any hopes of a reversal of what has been an inexorable six-month collapse, disappointing European car sales (slowest in 6 months) with noted weakness in Latin America being cited, peripheral bond spreads widening out, Spanish 10-yr hitting highest yield in 10 months.

Global Risk Off From China To Europe To US, As Greek Impasse Hits Markets

Another day of constant Grexit chatter, and this time the futures are really starting to react as what was seen as mostly impossible for the past 4 months is now almost inevitable. The first tremors emerged when Greece announced it would not present a new proposal to the Eurogroup to unlock aid, relying instead on what has already been submitted and which the Troika said was inadequate. Then, confusing matters, a new GPO poll posted on Greece's Mega TV showed that increasingly more, or over 56% at last count, of Greece would prefer a "bad" deal with creditors than being kicked out of the Eurozone putting the future of Tsipras' cabine tin jeopardy. And then, hinting that the endgame is officially here, the FT reported that "Eurozone officials discuss holding emergency summit on Greece", suggesting a second Lehman weekend may be just around the corner.

Obama's Anti-Russia Policy Escalates: DoD Tells Congress Nukes Are Still On The Table

The US is playing a dangerous game of nuclear brinkmanship. Robert Scher, undersecretary of defense, has even floated the idea of a nuclear first strike against Russia. Claiming that Russia has violated the INF Treaty by testing a banned ground-launched cruise missile, Scher laid out possible options in testimony before Congress...

China Mocks G7 As "Gathering Of Debtors", Warns "Confrontation Will Be A Disaster For Europe"

"Since the very beginning of the establishment of the G7, it has been a rich-man's club that consists of Western major powers and aims to maintain the collective hegemony of the US-led West. Whether the G7 will become a geopolitical tool or a Cold War relic largely depends on European countries. Unlike the US, Europe shares a closer geopolitical and economic links with Russia. If the G7 becomes a platform for the confrontation between the West and Russia, it will undoubtedly be a disaster for Europe."

Consumers Are Not Following Orders

Last week the government reported personal income and spending for April. After months of blaming non-existent consumer spending on cold weather, shockingly occurring during the Winter, the captured mainstream media pundits, Ivy League educated Wall Street economist lackeys, and Keynesian loving money printers at the Fed have run out of propaganda to explain why Americans are not spending money they don’t have. The corporate mainstream media is now visibly angry with the American people for not doing what the Ivy League propagated Keynesian academic models say they should be doing. An economy built upon the consumption of iGadgets, Cheetos, meat lovers stuffed crust pizza, and slave labor produced Chinese baubles, along with the production of enough arms to blow up the world ten times over, and the doling out of trillions to the non-productive class, is doomed to fail.

China Dumps Record $120 Billion In US Treasurys In Two Month Via Belgium

After a record $92.5 billion drop in March, "Belgium" sold another $24 billion in April, bringing the total liquidation to a whopping $116.4 billion for the months of March and April. This means that after adding mainland China's token increase of $2 billion in April after a $37 billion increase the month before, net of Belgium's liquidation China has sold a record $77 billion in Treasurys in the most recent two months.

Investors Ditch Cash Market For Futures As Treasury Liquidity Evaporates

In what amounts to still more evidence that investors are moving into derivatives in order to avoid illiquid cash markets, UBS finds that over the "past three months, daily average futures volume stands at nearly 70% of cash Treasuries, based on the notional amounts transacted... up from about 50% in 2011."

What Comes Next, Part 2: The Looming Transformation

The serial bubbles of the 2000’s are nothing more than what was wrought of the 1920’s, in general. The monetary character of both is not coincidence, as the failures that bookend each of these ages induces the transformation: from monetary to fiscal and back to monetary again. That looks like progress and accountability, but in each it only leads to more extreme measures (relative to the last) to still achieve what Robert Owen and Karl Marx conceived more than a century and a half ago. That leads us to 2015 and what is certainly the ragged end of the eurodollar standard. The third socialist age was undone by August 2007, but that did not stop its proprietors of “eurodollar socialism” under the name “investor capitalism” from trying to rebuild and restore it to full capacity. The groundwork has already been laid, and it is exactly what you would expect given the history since 1907. There are no widespread details about a return to capitalism and sound money practices, only how to overcome the third installation of that timeless barrier thrown down in the collapse of each of the asset bubbles so far – value.