• williambanzai7
    01/25/2015 - 14:27
    A Banzai7 salute to the Greeks for signaling the bankster $hitheads of the world (and their Eurocrat enablers) to shove it where the sun don't shine.

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Q4 Shaping Up As Worst Quarter In Years: Aggregate Revenues And EPS Have Missed By 1.2% and 0.4% So Far

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings and revenue below expectations to date. The aggregate dollar-level earnings reported by these 37 companies is 0.4% below the aggregate dollar-level earnings estimated for these 37 companies. The aggregate dollar-level revenue reported by these 37 companies is 1.2% below the aggregate dollar-level revenue estimated for these 37 companies. As a result, even though more companies have beat earnings and revenue estimates to date than missed earnings and revenue estimates, the surprise percentage (which reflects the aggregate difference between actual results and estimated results) is negative for both earnings (-0.4%) and revenue (-1.2%). This means that Q4 is shaping up as the worst quarter since 2012, perhaps even the start of the great financial crisis in 2008/2009.



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Argentine President "Convinced" Nisman Death Was Not Suicide As New Twists Emerge

"No one believes the suicide hypothesis," one of Nisman's investigative team told Reuters, adding that, "he was very convinced of his ideas and prepared to see them through. He had received threats all his life and it never intimidated him." With the news of no gunpowder residue sinking in, and protests rising, even Argentina's President is now uncomfortably admitting it, saying on Thursday that she was "convinced" Nisman's death was not a suicide, explaining that people had led him astray in his investigation in order to smear her name and then "needed him dead." However, instead of vowing to shed light on the matter, Fernandez and her government have been on the defensive, trying to refute Nisman's claims against her. Neighboring Uruguay said it felt sorry for Argentina and that its justice system needs to clear up the case to maintain "the minimal confidence our societies need." Questions abound...



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When BTFD Fails: Spot The Oil ETF "Knife Catchers"

With crude oil prices once again testing cycle (multi-year) lows this morning - following a brief bounce on the death of Saudi King Abdullah - we thought it intriguing that for the 4th month in a row fund flows into the iPath Oil ETN have surged to almost six year highs. As Bloomberg Briefs reports, "the kind of flows that we're seeing can only be explained by 'catch the falling knife' behavior, where people are trying to call the bottom," as December and Jnauary flows now top $400 million - the most in 6 years for a 2-month period (as price plummet further). But 'investors' are piling into double- and triple- levered "up" oil bets too...



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Mark Spitznagel On The Value Of Tail-Hedged Equities

Due to the principal-agent problem in the asset management industry, most money managers rationally have a propensity to use a negatively skewed payoff distribution. This kind of behavior, in aggregate, is also evidenced in the historical data, which shows significant losses for professional investors during the largest market downturns. Most investors and asset allocators, in addition to these negatively skewed positions, further view the returns of hedging strategies in a vacuum, rather than as a holistic part of their broader portfolio. Thus, they are likely to consider portfolio hedging programs to be a drag on their performance numbers and further undervalue them. We believe these factors, among others, contribute to a market segmentation that creates an undervaluation in tail-risk hedges.



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RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap - 23rd January 2015



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No More "Dog Dung Vacuums" As SkyMall Files For Bankruptcy

In what will likely end the hopes and dreams of many air travellers hoping to pick up the latest crystal-encrusted iphone cufflinks, upright sleeper, hiccup stick, or dog dung vacuum; Commercial Bankruptcy Investor reports that the companies behind the SkyMall catalogs has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. This news comes as Xhibit - SkyMall's parent company - sees its stock price collapse and December's news that Southwest Airlines (which accounted for at least 7% of SkyMall's sales) would no longer distribute the catalogs. On the bright side, any liquidation is great for those looking to pick up a Diamond Jubilee Queen and Corgi statuette or a Doll-House styled cat litter...



Tyler Durden's picture

The Lunatics Are Running the Asylum: Draghi’s Money Printing Bazooka

There is no reason to assume that this time will be different. These boom-bust sequences will continue until the economy is structurally undermined to such an extent that monetary intervention cannot even create the illusory prosperity of a capital-consuming boom anymore. The bankers applauding Draghi’s actions today will come to rue them tomorrow.



Tyler Durden's picture

US Rig Count Craters To Lowest Since August 2010

With oil prices down another 6% this week (despite Saudi leadership uncertainty and ECB QE), widespread layoffs announced in Shale states, and despite Lew's comments that he doesn't see US oil production declining, it is perhaps no surprise that the US rig count cratered further to its lowest level since August 2010. The US rig count is now down over 15% from the highs, with its biggest 10-week drop since May 2009 (and down 8% YoY). The pace of collapse in the rig count has now accelerated for 7 weeks in a row, and judging by lagged oil prices, there is a lot more room to drop yet. The oil rig count standalone is now down 7% YoY - its biggest drop sicne Nov 2009. As T.Boone Pickens so rightly noted, watch the US rig count (and suggested it will need to drop 500 rigs or more before any stability returns).



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How The Swiss National Bank Almost Crushed George Soros

Minutes after last week's Swiss National Bank shocker, jokingly we mused: "Will be ironic if Soros was long EURCHF." As it turns out, we were almost correct, and according to the WSJ, Soros Fund Management, which manages more than $25 billion for investor George Soros, was betting against the Swiss franc in the fall before it removed those bearish positions.  Why did the Soros so conveniently take off a bet which, with leverage, could have resulted in massive losses for his hedge fund? The WSJ says he did so after "viewing the risk as too high relative to potential gains, said people close to the matter." Well as long as "people close" think Soros did not have input directly from the Swiss central bank, or perhaps the occasional hint from Kashya Hildebrand, then one can't help but marvel at the octogenarian's impeccable timing.



Tyler Durden's picture

Our Money Is On This Guy

If we had to put all our money on one trader, just one individual trader, we would do it without hesitation. The recipient? This guy.



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Did Treasury Secretary Lew Just Call Draghi A Currency Manipulator?

Having already put his foot in his mouth about the US oil production industry, it appears Treasury Secretary Lew has done it again:

*LEW SAYS UNFAIR FX MOVES TO DRAW SCRUTINY FROM U.S.

His barbed comment can only be pointed at Draghi and his crush-the-Euro at all costs plan. But ironically, while he is 'scrutinizing' Europe's collapsing currency he opines that "a stronger dollar is good for America" - despite Europe proclaiming the exact opposite is good for them and seeming to miss the report after report blaming weak earnings on currency moves.



Tyler Durden's picture

Russell Napier: "Central Banks Are Now Powerless To Prevent A Steep Rise In Real Rates"

Central bank policy is creating liquidity.  Wrong --- the growth in broad money is slowing across the world.
Central bank policy is allowing a frictionless de-gearing.
Wrong --- debt to GDP levels of almost every country in the world are rising.
Central bank policy is creating inflation.   Wrong --- inflation in most jurisdictions is now back to, or below, the levels recorded in late 2009.
Central bank policy is fixing key exchange rates and securing growth.  Wrong --- in numerous jurisdictions this exchange rate intervention is slowing the growth in liquidity and thus the growth in the economy.
Central bank policy is keeping real interest rates low and stimulating demand. Wrong --- the decline in inflation from peak levels in 2011 means that real rates of interest are rising.
Central bank policy is driving up asset prices and creating a positive wealth impact which is bolstering consumption. Wrong --- savings rates have not declined materially.
Central bank policy is creating greater financial stability. Wrong --- whatever positives impact central banks are having on bank capital etc they have failed to prevent the biggest emerging market debt boom in history.



Tyler Durden's picture

3 Things - The Fed, Rig Counts And Employment, ECB

The real concern for investors and individuals is the actual economy. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape, and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get themselves out of the potential trap they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process. It is my expectation, unless these deflationary trends reverse course in very short order, the Fed will likely postpone raising interest rates until at least the end of the year if not potentially longer.  However, the Fed understands clearly that we are closer to the next economic recession than not and that they can not be caught with rates at the "zero bound" when that occurs.



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30 Hours After Unleashing ECB QE, Coeure Suggests QE2

With US equities down 0.5% this morning and European inflation expectations having given back all their ECB QE gains, it was only a matter of time before some half-witted central-planner felt the need to speak...

*COEURE SAYS IF QE IMPACT ISN'T ENOUGH, "WE'LL HAVE TO DO MORE"
*COEURE SAYS ECB WILL ASSESS IF QE MUST GO BEYOND SEPTEMBER 2016

Sure enough - just as The BIS warned "the markets' buoyancy hinges on central banks' every word and deed," stocks picked back up on his comments.



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Has The ECB QE Already Failed? 5 Year Inflation Expectations Decline Since Draghi's Announcement

Just as we pointed out explicitly yesterday, ECBQE will 'not' provide the inflation-expectation-lifting hope that every talking head proclaims as its raison d'etre... just as FedQE did not. We noted previously that Draghi's actions would likely send the most deflationary signal ever to the world's policymakers, and sure enough European 5Y5Y inflation expectations have dropped 10bps from yesterday's highs and round-tripped to the levels seen before Draghi unleashed the money printing machine.



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