Tyler Durden's picture

As MOMO Fever Fades, These Are The Stocks Goldman Is Rolling Into

As we reported over the weekend, a rather concerned Goldman proclaimed the great momo rally - that one that led to so much gains in 2013 and to many losses so far in 2014 - dead, and in a sign that far less euphoria is coming over the horizon, said that while momentum stocks will hardly recover their panic buying highs, suggested that the best the S&P 500 can hope for - if history is any guide - is for a 5% rise in the broader market over the next 6 months (what it didn't add is that hardly any algos, and certainly no self-respecting TBTF banker, get out of bed for a measly 1% return per month). Perhaps more imprortantly, what Goldman also remarked on was what it thought would be the stocks that should benefit from the rotation out of momo names and into slower growth, low valuation, low momentum names.



Tyler Durden's picture

Do You Belong In The Stock Market?

Within the last fourteen years, there have been two major market corrections, both of which saw drops of 55% from their highs. That, or more, is the potential for what lies ahead. For those who went through these markets, it was not enjoyable... and those who 'stayed long' have been lucky. To put into perspective how lucky he was, it took 25 years for the Dow Jones to recover to its pre-crash highs after the Great Depression. Likewise, the Dow hit an intraday high of 1,000 in 1962 but never closed above 1,000 until about twenty years later. Whether recent market behavior proves to be merely a dip in the chart is almost irrelevant. The country and financial markets are nearing what could very well be an existential event. Do not be investing like your father or grandfather. Markets today are more like casinos than a way to invest in American growth. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has made it impossible to go elsewhere other than your mattress.



Tyler Durden's picture

Mohamed El-Erian Quits Pimco, Becomes A Blogger

We realize the future for blogging was bright, but this bright? Moments ago, Bloomberg View, Bloomberg's in house blogging operation, announced that El-Erian had joined it as a columnist. And just like that Mohamed has his own unedited venue in which to spill all the dirt on his former employer.



Tyler Durden's picture

US Pays Half Of Gazprom's Overdue Invoice With $1 Billion Ukraine Loan Guarantee

With Ukraine no longer paying for Russian gaz, and with Gazprom making it clear Kiev has to a) first pay the overdue $2+ billion in invoice and then b) prepay some $5 billion in gas until the end of the year of Europe gets it, it was only a matter of time before the US Treasury stepped in and paid off part or all of Gazprom's demands. That time is now, when moments ago Jack Lew announced a $1 billion loan guarantee for Ukraine - very much the same way that the US provided billions in loan guarnatees for the now long overthrown Mursi regime in Egypt. And in other news, many more "costly" and "damaging" US sanctions are surely headed Russia's way any second now.



Tyler Durden's picture

Flashing Red Warning: Q1 Earnings Growth Plunges To Lowest Since 2012

While the so-called "experts" were adamant in repeating that one must ignore all Q1 economic data (because of harsh weather you know), one thing the same "experts" pounded the table on was the earnings growth in 2014 which confirmed that the Fed was correct in tapering and that the corporate sector was well on its way to achieving "escape velocity" and a stable recovery. And then this happened...



Tyler Durden's picture

East Ukraine Braces For Military Operation As Ultimatum Passes: Full Ukraine Event Recap

As was expected, so called Russian separatists completely ignored Ukraine's 0600 GMT ultimatum to hand over their weapons and give up, which means Ukraine now is in the clear, according to its leaders, to engage in the previously warned military "anti-terrorist" operation. As a result, as Reuters updates,  "towns in eastern Ukraine on Monday braced for military action. As the 9 a.m. (07.00 a.m. BST) deadline issued by authorities in Kiev expired, a Reuters reporter in the flashpoint city of Slaviansk, where armed men had seized two government buildings, said there was no outward sign the rebels were complying with the ultimatum." Subsequent reports indicated that since the deadline passed, at least 4 people have been killed however since virtually no "factual" propaganda news out of Ukraine is to be believed, we would heavily discount this update.



Tyler Durden's picture

Citi Mortgage Originations Drop To Record Low

What was worst, and naturally will not be discussed at all by the peanut gallery, about Citi's just announced results is that the amount of Citigroup mortgage originations - that key aspect of the trumpeted "housing market recovery" - did what it has done at every other bank. It plunged. Only at Citigroup, it plunged so badly, it just reached a new record low which at $5.2 billion is a 71% drop from a year ago! Long live the housing recovery... in which nobody seems to be participating.



Tyler Durden's picture

Retail Sales Surge By Most In 18 Months Led By Spike In Auto Sales

Not entirely surprising given the data from the automakers in recent weeks, but the 3.4% jump in auto dealer sales provided enough juice to push overall retail sales in the US up 1.1% MoM (beating expectations of 0.8% and with last month's data revised higher). This is the biggest month-over-month jump in retail sales since Sept 2012. The question, of course, is whether this auto spike is sustainable to support the overall sales environment or will the ever lowering credit standards of the subprime auto loan market lead to the inevitable collapse in a few months?



Tyler Durden's picture

Commodity-Backed Currencies? China Buys Huge Copper Mine; Russia Onshores Largest Gold Miner

The last few days have seen Western anti-Russian rhetoric and red lines escalate dramatically as the military and economic issues come to light in any push back against Putin's pressure. From NatGas export fallacies to "boomerang"-ing sanctions, the west seems stuck (for now).. which brings up the question - why is China and Russia making huge investments in commodity-miners? Russia's largest gold miner Polyus Gold is considering a complete onshoring of its activities and China is buying a huge Peruvian copper mine from Glencore. The outcome would appear to enable both firms to do away with USD but not having to buy this resource in the market... just mine it?



Tyler Durden's picture

BofAML Warns VIX Complacency Suggest Stocks Fall Further

While US equities have spent much of the past several weeks under pressure (the NASDAQ bio tech index has fallen over 21%, the NASDAQ Comp is down over 8% and the S&P500 is down over 4%), BofAML's Macneil Curry is concerned that the VIX index suggests conditions should deteriorate further before greater signs of a base materialize.



RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk - Week Ahead - 14th April 2014



Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: April 14

  • Three dead in shootings at Kansas Jewish centers; man to face charges (WSJ)
  • Sanctions Blowback in Russia Targets Burgers to Movies (BBG)
  • Deadly Virus's Spread Raises Alarms in Mideast (WSJ)
  • China group buys $6bn Glencore Peru copper mine (BBG)
  • Iran lodges complaint against United States over U.N. envoy ban (Reuters)
  • Russian assets down sharply on Ukraine conflict fears (Reuters)
  • ECB comments knock euro, but not much (Reuters)
  • World-Leading $25 Hourly Wage Roils Swiss Businesses (BBG)


Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Tread Water As Geopolitical Fears Added To Momentum Collapse Concerns

Futures are treading water once more now that Ukraine has stormed to center stage from the backburner after everyone was convinced Putin would let the situation cool off after annexing Crimea. Guess not. Adding the renewed geopolitical jitters to what has already been a beta stock bloodbath into a holiday shortened week assures some high volatility fireworks. Cautious sentiment was observed over in Asia (Nikkei 225 -0.36%) amid renewed fears that geopolitical tensions in Ukraine will flare up again following reports of exchange gunfire with pro-Russian militants. This sentiment carried over into the European session with stocks lower across the board (Eurostoxx50 -0.71%). EUR is lower after ECB’s Draghi said any further strengthening of the EUR would warrant further action by the ECB, including non-standard measures such as quantitative easing - it is amazing how frequently and often the Virtu algos still fall for Draghi's jawboning trick which has now become all too clear will never be implemented and certainly not if he keeps talking about it daily, as he does.



Tyler Durden's picture

"Shadows Of March 2000" - Goldman On The Great Momo Crash Of 2014

We have bad news for hedge funds who, like Hugh Hendry in December of last year, threw fundamentals and caution to the wind and, with great reservations, jumped into this momo bandwagon in which mere buying beget more buying until nobody knew why anyone bought in the first place... and then everything crashed, leading to the worst day for hedge funds in a decade: according to Goldman's David Kostin, whose job is to be a cheerleader for the intangible "wealth effect" leading to all too tangible Goldman bonuses: "The stock market will likely recover during the next few months... but not momentum stocks."



Tyler Durden's picture

Did CIA Director Brennan Visit Kiev Recently?

Just a few weeks ago, someone (allegedly Russia) leaked a recorded phone conversation of Victoria Nuland commenting "fuck the EU" and how she (the US) wanted the political stage set in Ukraine. A lot has happened since then but as multiple pro-Russian sources have now 'confirmed', the new puppetmaster appears to be in town (or was). As Interfax reported, citing sources inside the Ukrainian parliament, none other that CIA Director John Brennan landed in Ukraine on Saturday under an assumed name and held a "series of secret meetings" with the country's "power bloc" Interfax reported. Commenting on the report, deputy chairman for the State Duma's Defense Committee Frants Klintsevich said that he would view such a visit as a challenge to Russia.



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