Gartman Is Selling The Rally

"We shall have orders in the markets today to sell the mid-points of all three indices; that is, we’ll sell the S&P futures today if 2045; we’ll sell the EUR STOXX 50 at 2837 and we’ll sell the Nikkie futures at 15,800… two thirds of a unit for each so that we’ll be short of two units in total if all are filled."

Brexit: Here Are The Latest Known Unknowns

When will Article 50 be triggered? Will it ever be triggered? Will there ever actually be a Brexit? Who is the next Conservative leader? Will there be a snap general election? On any negotiations will Europe play hard ball or compromise? Elsewhere will Italy lose the senate reform referendum in October and could Italy have an EU referendum after a fresh election? And will the French elections next year be another spoke in the wheel for Europe?

"Panic May Have Passed... But This Is Far From Over"

Don’t read too much into the relief rally of the past 24 hours, warns Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore. While the initial panic may have passed, markets are very far away from having fully priced the impact of the referendum. For a start, there’s still little firm grasp of exactly what the impact will be...

Scandal Erupts At Euro Summit Over Scotland, While Draghi Says In "No Rush" To Ease Policy

Moments ago, a mini scandal erupted at the Euro summit, when in an attempt to infuriate the UK some even more, Juncker said that “Scotland won the right to be heard in Brussels." What he did instead is open a new Pandora's box, one which invites all secessionist movements in Europe to demand a comparable treatment. And, sure enough, just moments later, Spain's PM Rajoy immediately said that he opposes any negotiation by Scotland with the EU adding that "If the UK leaves, Scotland leaves."

Silver Surges To Post-Brexit Highs

Despite the dead cat bounce in 'some' risk assets, bonds and bullion remain bid as Silver just broke back above the post-Brexit spike highs...

April Spending Exuberance Plunges Back To Earth In May As Income Growth Slows

After an exuberant April, spiking hope that everything was awesome with a surge in spending, May has dragged US consumers back down to earth. The 1.1% (revised) jump in spending in April (highest since Aug 09) is over as May's 0.4% gain is back in the land of 'normal' once again. Income rose just 0.2% MoM (less than expected) slowing dramatically from last month to near the weakest YoY growth since March 2014. The savings rate fell once again on the back of this (down 0.1%) to 5.3%.

Islamic State Blamed For Istanbul Terror Attack That Killed 41

With the Ataturk airport damage now largely accounted for, it's time to cast blame which Turkey was eager to do when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said in televised remarks that the Islamic State is likely responsible for the killings. “Once again, it has been understood that terrorism is a global threat to all countries and nations and must be fought through mutual cooperation,” Yildirim said. “Our country has the necessary power and determination to overcome over these heinous attacks.”

Frontrunning: June 29

  • Global stocks gain as Brexit nerves settle (Reuters)
  • Draghi Wishes for a World Order Populists Will Love to Hate (BBG)
  • Merkel Says No Way Back From Brexit as Cameron Regrets Loss (BBG)
  • EU leaders meet without UK to plot Brexit response (FT)
  • Division, confusion as EU rethinks future without Britain (AP)

Don't Worry, You Are Not Alone: "No One Knows How To Price Brexit" Citi Admits

Whereas spot prices have stabilized, there appears to be little conviction among traders and other financial market participants about the course of exchange rates and asset prices going forward. Market sentiment remains tentative; small catalysts can be very disruptive. A common trading floor comment is: "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

Nigel Farage Batters Obama: "He Came To Britain And Behaved Disgracefully"

"Well ultimately let me say this, Vladimir Putin behaved in a more statesmanlike manner than President Obama did in this referendum campaign. Obama came to Britain and I think behaved disgracefully, telling us we'd be at the back of the queue. Treating us, America's strongest, oldest ally, in this extraordinary way. Vladimir Putin maintained his silence throughout the whole campaign."