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Why Did Q3 GDP Jump: Thank ISIS And The "War On Terror"

Never let a crisis, or war on terror, go to waste...



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Q3 GDP Rises 3.5% Despite Sharp Slowdown In Consumption, Pushed Higher By Government Spending Spree

Moments ago, the market was expecting Q3 GDP to print at 3.0%, and was pleasantly surprised when instead it got a 3.5% print, sending all risk assets kneejerk higher. However, a quick glance into the components revealed that things were certainly not as they seemed, with Personal Consumption in Q3 actually decreasing notably from Q2's 2.5%, to just 1.8% in Q3, below the 1.9% Expected, and accounting for 1.22% of the 3.54% Q3 GDP, the lowest Personal Consumption boost to GDP since Q2 2012 excluding the infamous Q1 winter vortex quarter. So what happened to boost Q2 GDP if that core driver, the US consumer was not there? Simple. Government stepped in, and stepped in hard, with its 0.83% boost to the bottom line GDP the highest since Q2 of 2009!



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Initial Jobless Claims Average Nears 40-Year Low

Initial claims rose a very modest 3k this week but it does little to change the overall picture of a jobs market where there is no hiring and therefore no firing. The 4-week moving average of initial claims has only been lower than this once in 40 years. Is it any wonder the FOMC is stuck with its hawkish perspective... Continuing claims rose 33k to 2.384 million, missing expectations by the most since August - but still hovering near cycle lows.



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Silver, Copper Slammed As Commodities Crumble Into US Open

Catalyst, who needs catalyst...continued dollar strength post-FOMC is weighing on the whole commodity complex but copper and silver seem to suffering most...



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Western Banks Find "In China, Nothing Is What It Appears To Be"

When Chinese property developer Agile Property Holdings Ltd. said this month that its chairman was taken into custody by authorities, the disclosure was a shock to Western banks that lent the company money, according to China Spectator as the fog of ever-rising asset values suddenly evaporates into the reality of an opaque real estate credit market slap them in the face. The simple fact is "it is very difficult to get a handle on the financials of a Chinese company," as a local investigative consulting firm warns "in China, nothing is what it appears to be."



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Don't Show The "Deflation Isn't Going To Happen" ECB Germany's Declining October Prices

Brandenburg CPI -0.3%, Previous 0.0%
Hesse CPI -0.2%, Previous 0.1%
Saxony CPI -0.2%, Previous 0.1%
Bavaria CPI -0.3%, Previous 0.1%



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Frontrunning: October 30

  • "Soaring consumer confidence" - How the Economy Is Stoking Voter Anger at Incumbent Governors (WSJ)
  • Euro zone deflation worries shield German Bunds from upbeat Fed (Reuters)
  • Greece’s Euro Dilemma Is Back as Minister Sees Volatility (BBG)
  • Ukraine gas supplies in doubt as Russia seeks EU payment deal (Reuters)
  • Sterling Lads Chats Show FX Traders Matching Fix Orders (BBG)
  • NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe (WSJ)
  • U.K. SFO Charges Ex-Tullett Prebon Broker in Libor-Rigging Probe (BBG)
  • Jerusalem on edge after shooting of rabbi (FT)
  • Israeli police kill Palestinian suspected of shooting far-right activist (Reuters)
  • Samsung seeks smartphone revamp to arrest profit slide (Reuters)


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Sudden Bout Of Risk-Offness Sends European Shares Sharply Lower, US Futures Not Happy

To summarize (even though with liquidity as non-existant as it is, this may be completely stale by the time we go to print in a minute or so), European shares erase gains, fall close to intraday lows following the Fed’s decision to end QE. Banks, basic resources sectors underperform, while health care, tech outperform. Companies including Shell, Barclays, Aviva, Volkswagen, Alcatel-Lucent, ASMI, Bayer released earnings. German unemployment unexpectedly declines. The Italian and U.K. markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; German yields decline. Commodities decline, with nickel, silver underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, core PCE due later.



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Alan Greenspan: QE Failed To Help The Economy, The Unwind Will Be Painful, "Buy Gold"

"Gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments." ... "I don’t think it’s possible" for the Fed to end its easy-money policies in a trouble-free manner. ... "Effective demand is dead in the water" and the effort to boost it via bond buying "has not worked.



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20-Year CBS News Veteran Details Massive Censorship And Propaganda In Mainstream Media

"Reporters on the ground aren’t necessarily ideological, Attkisson says, but the major network news decisions get made by a handful of New York execs who read the same papers and think the same thoughts. Often they dream up stories beforehand and turn the reporters into 'casting agents,' told 'we need to find someone who will say...' that a given policy is good or bad. “We’re asked to create a reality that fits their New York image of what they believe,"



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Is It About To Get Worse? Lakeland Hazmat Suit Orders Go Exponential, Surpass 1 Million

Almost exactly a month ago, long before the Texas Ebola fiasco, when virtually nobody had heard of a small company out of Ronkonkoma, NY called Lakeland Industries and whose only product is "industrial protective clothing for industry, municipalities, healthcare and to first responders" i.e., Hazmat suits, we asked "i) who will get sick next and ii) how bad could it get?" For the answer we focused on the recently announced order of 160,000 Hazmat suits by the US State Department which had come at a time when the CDC was urging everyone that there is nothing to fear and that Ebola is under control. Fast forward to today when shortly after the close, and minutes after it announced the completion of another $11 million follow on offering, Lakeland surprised everyone, and especially those who are short the stock, when it released the following "Update on Business Activity Relating to Ebola Crisis" in which it announced that it has, by now, received a stunning 1 million Hazmat suit orders and rising exponentially.



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Fireworks Fly As Peter Schiff Warns "An Economy That Lives By QE, Dies By QE"

Ahead of tomorrow's decision by the FOMC, Peter Schiff ventured on to CNBC to discuss the economy, the fed, and gold... among other things. Schiff rightly fears that while the Fed may well stop QE3 tomorrow, QE4 will not be too long behind it as he notes, rather eloquently, that "an economy that lives by QE, will die by QE" as the Fed's total lack of willingness to allow stocks to fall (see Bullard 2 weeks ago) or a 'cleansing' recession leaves the nation's economy in far worse shape than it was before the Fed's intervention. Schiff calmly replies to the anchor's questions (as she proclaims "I am not on the side of the Fed but..."), gently explains his view on gold when challenged about his 'wrongness', but when a guest starts hounding him for being dangerous to CNBC viewers wealth... Schiff (rightly) loses it - must watch!



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Why '75' Is The Most Important Number For US Economic Hope

US shale oil is now the marginal swing barrel in the new world oil order, and as Goldman Sachs warns (despite Larry Kudlow apparently knowing better), a decline in WTI to $75/bbl would start to significantly slow US shale growth (and thus employment, capex, and the entire US economy).



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Mysterious Chinese Buyer Of Record Crude Oil Cargoes Revealed

Last week we noted a near-record number of VLCC oil tankers sailing towards Chinese ports as we speculated that the world's largest economy looked to rebuild its strategic petroleum reserve at low-low prices. Now we know... as Bloomberg reports, China National United Oil Co., a unit of the country’s biggest energy company, bought the most ever cargoes of Middle East crude through a pricing platform in Singapore. "The big question is what China will do with all of these cargoes," notes one analyst, "It's very difficult for the market to know Chinaoil's strategy."



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Peak Empire 2.0

Based on the lessons of history, all empires collapse eventually; thus, the probability that the US empire will collapse can be set at 100% with a great deal of confidence. The question is, When? (Everyone keeps asking that annoying question.)



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