Guest Post: Captain Fantastic And The Dirt Cowboy

The older I get the harder it is to stop myself from getting too jaded, and too cynical. It is an even harder task these past few years, as I am not only working against the natural cynicism of age, but also the fact that we have all had a front row seat to the greatest financial meltdown of our generation. Too many books have chronicled all the insiders who have benefitted from this meltdown, and there are no shortage of government officials whose hands are dirty (gander at Fannie and Freddie’s lobbying recipients, and payroll lists). Occasionally, though, we get a glimpse of something good. Genuine. Void of self-interest. Today Senator Kaufman will speak on the floor about financial reform in general. We were lucky to have met the man and his staff, and to see raw energy and concern for the public good at work is rare and inspiring. The Senator is not running for re-election. All that he has done, and is doing, is because he feels it is right, and he cares about America, and its proper priorities. Agree or Disagree? Not even the point. Watching him and his staff in action makes me see how harmful lobbying is as an activity, and how bad multi-term government officials are. If we want change, maybe we should limit Senators to serving one 6 year term, or two 4 year terms MAYBE. No exceptions.

Labor Unions Preparing To Take Goldman Sachs To Task, Push For Transaction Tax In Upcoming Widespread Rallies

America's labor unions are finally waking up from their deep slumber and noticing the vast schism in American society between the haves and the have nots. The catalyst: Wall Street's $16.2 billion bonus pay day. As a result Richard Trumka, head of the AFL-CIO, the nation's largest union organization, and a firm supporter of the transaction tax which was proposed in late 2009 and then promptly buried after some serious lobbying by Wall Street, will announce today "two weeks of protests aimed at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable securities firm in U.S. history, and the country’s five other largest banks. The AFL-CIO says it plans 200 events covering all 50 states, starting March 15." Summarizing the mood of increasing populist aggression across the nation against Wall Street's uber-wealthy is labor professor at UC Berkley Harley Shaiken: “Wall Street has become a symbol of greed run amok, and what labor is doing here is seeking to demonstrate that it is speaking for working families generally, union member or non- union member.” Strikes in Greece have already paralyzed the country. Will America soon follow?

Frontrunning: March 11

• Bring back the capitalist model (Washington Times)
• Initial claims at 462,000, higher than consensus, continuing claims higher by 37,000; snow not implicated (Bloomberg, Reuters)
• Naked swap crackdown in Europe rings hollow without Washington (Bloomberg)
• Volcker rule gets lift in Senate amid reform talks (Reuters)
• Greeks strike over budget cuts, stocks decline (NYT, Bloomberg, Reuters)
• China inflation surges (Bloomberg, Reuters)

RANsquawk 11th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

RANsquawk 11th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

European Commission To Back CDS Trading Ban As Second Round Of Strikes Cripples Greece; Greek GDP Now Expected To Miss Worst Case Scenario

The Washington Post reports that the next "Lehman-sized" event may be just around the corner, as the European Commission is now supporting a ban on trading sovereign CDS. While we are in process of tracking down whether this is actual news or just some exaggeration based on semantics, we will caution, once again, that the consequences of a CDS trading ban will be severe and very likely result in the opposite of what the EC intends on achieving. Keep in mind that everyone expected the Lehman bankruptcy to be contained as it was at best a fringe cog in the financial system. The result was a systemic collapse as one interlinked component of the financial fabric imploded after another. The rush to unwind CDS positions ahead of a ban will be massive and have unpredictable consequences. But the biggest threat is what happens to bond prices, which once basis trades are made impossible, will be promptly unwound, leading to pervasive selling of the cash leg not by speculators but by plain vanilla mutual fund idiot money. What scapegoaters seem to forget is that the vast majority of existing sovereign CDS notional is tied into perfectly boring insurance "basis" trades, in which the bond is held in combination with associated CDS. Once there is an inability to have hedged cash sovereign exposure, the demand for European sovereign paper will plummet, achieving precisely the opposite of what the CDS ban is attempting to accomplish.

PIMCO's El-Erian On The Inability To Grasp The Seismic Changes Currently Occurring In The Developed World

We have now reached a point when a Senator has to write a well-intentioned letter to the very administration he serves, (whose sworn duty is to preserve the wealth of all of its constituents, not just Goldman Sachs), with a cautionary tale that continued lying to the general population combined with a culture of opacity and persistent fraud, will lead to a disastrous effect to the economy and to the very fabric of American society. Alas, in a society in which those being lied to extract a satisfaction as great, if not greater, from this process, than those doing the actual lying, this is not too surprising. Sticking our collective heads in the sand has traditionally worked miracles for resolving the bulk of this nation's problems. And with the public sector now demonstrating a preferential treatment for the financial space, at the expense of 99% of the remaining population, it has become obvious US citizens can no longer rely on the US government for procuring the truth. Furthermore, with China now a vassal owner of America via its undisputed creditor status, we may soon lose the protection the government is entrusted with affording its citizens in other realms, from enemies certainly domestic (mostly located in south Manhattan), and very possibly foreign. Yet, another voice of caution that has recently emerged, and whose message is critical to all, is that of Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. The Pimco executive has written another very relevant Op-Ed in the Financial Times, "How to handle the sovereign debt explosion" which does not so much disclose new things, as capture the essence of the groundbreaking transformation that is currently occurring within the entire "developed" world, and more specifically, the denial that the vast majority of "experts" are exhibiting when faced with a previously unseen process of unprecedented significance.