*HOUSE HAS VOTES FOR U.S. AID TO SYRIAN REBELS; VOTE CONTINUING
Those sneaky politicians... The House has just begun voting on whether to amend the US Spending Bill to enable funding for Obama's grand strategy of training "moderate Syrian rebels.
- *SYRIAN REBEL AID IS PROPOSED AS AMENDMENT TO U.S. SPENDING BILL
- *HOUSE BEGINS VOTE ON U.S. AID TO SYRIAN REBELS SOUGHT BY OBAMA
However, what few have also noticed is that the bill also includes an extension for funding the Export-Import bank.
Obviously, today's market was all about the Fed. some brief stop-running early on took out yesterday's highs only to fall back before Yellen... then the fireworks began. The initial kneejerk reaction was to sell stocks, sell bonds, and buy USDs. Then came the re-reaction - VIX was slammed below 12, the S&P 500 surged to near intraday record highs, bond yields accelerated higher, EUR and JPY weakness sparked USD bid, and PMs slipped lower as Yellen meandered uncomfortably through a two-faced press conference. By the close, the USD had hit fresh 4-year highs (USDJPY over 108), stocks had roundtripped to unchanged from FOMC, Treasury yields were notably higher, VIX back over 12.5, Trannies surged.
"it may make sense to stay invested, but we have reached a point where protection against an untidy denouement to the present market phase should be built into the construction of a portfolio. It is not enough to rely on a protection that will be executed in response to price signals."
Hot on the heels of yesterday's low PPI and this morning's falling CPI, we thought it worth noting (given The Fed's pre-occupation that inflation is running too low) that the price of milk - that staple of the American diet - just hit an all-time high. Nope, no inflation here...
What in January 2012 was a 2014 GDP forecast range of 3.7%-4.0% collapsed to 2.1%-2.3% in June (because clearly the Fed couldn't possibly forecast snow in the winter), and three months later is now 2.0%-2.2%. In short, a 43% forecasting error. That is all.
UPDATE: Stocks have roundtripped again since she started...
Having oscillated in a wide range immediately after the FOMC statement's release, stocks have decided that up is the way to go and the S&P 500 just hit new all-time record intraday highs (helped by a VIXnado collapse under 12 and surge in USDJPY). Treasury yields are higher, USDdollar is higher (but fading back from its initial spike), and gold and silver and unchanged.
Having used the most words ever in an FOMC statement to describe the total shenanigans that they have created, Janet Yellen prepares to 'meet the press' to explain how 'considerably' well things are going and yet how much 'considerably' more is needed to be done... For now the meme is that this statement is more dovish than the previous one; we suspect she will want to walk that back a little.
Perhaps the one most important, if completely meaningless chart (because it will as usual revised countless times in the next year and the final outcome will be anything but what the Fed is predicting) that everyone was looking for in today's FOMC forecast materials, is the so-called "dots", so here it is.
FOMC Keeps "Considerable" Wealth Effect Dream Alive, More See First Hike In 2015; Two Dissent - Full Statement ComparisonSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/17/2014 - 14:01
Perhaps not surprisingly - following Hilsenrath's 'leak' - the FOMC has decided to keep the "considerable time" language alive-and-well in its latest statement, supporting the uber-dovishness rate guidance as QE is tapered as expected:
- *FED TO END QE PROGRAM AT NEXT MEETING IF OUTLOOK HOLDS, RELEASES EXIT STRATEGY GUIDELINES
- *FIRST RATE RISE SEEN IN 2015 BY 14 FED OFFICIALS VS 12 IN JUNE (FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENT)
- *FED KEEPS `CONSIDERABLE TIME' PLEDGE FOR LOW RATES POST-QE
Record high stocks, record low corp yields, surging GDP, PMIs soaring, housing and consumer sentiment exuberant, jobless claims at lows, JOLTS at highs, and the Apple iPhone 6 - if that doesn't draw Yellen to the middle, we don't know what will... but we are sure she'll explain in the press conference. Full redline below...
Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1992.00, 10Y 2.56%, Gold $1235, WTI $94.20, USDJPY 107.50
What happens when a camera on a stick captures an Argentinian gun-yielding thug on a bike? This.
Minutes ago the Yen hit another multi-year low against the dollar, which sure enough, is great for the nominal value of Japanese stocks, if horrible for the actual Japanese companies, the Japanese middle class, and pretty much everyone except for a few superrich people. Such as Sony. Because the (now former) electronic giant, which once upon a time was the target of an activist campaign by none other than Dan Loeb who mysteriouly saw value in the company, once again stunned everyone when it reported overnight that it expects its annual loss to swell to $2 billion, but, far worse, canceled the payment of its dividend for the first time ever after writing down the value of its troubled smartphone business.
Another day, another Presidential address. We wonder, popcorn-drooling-mouth agape, what the warmonger-in-chief will be talking about today as he delivers remarks at MacDill Air Force Base... Will it be a Fed hint (economy's doing great but we need to do more), Scottish DEpendence support, Anti-ISIS coalition propaganda, Ray Rice, Ebola-battling benefits, or standard vote-grabbing populist rhetoric? We will have to wait and see...
There is no point in lamenting the disappearance of the gospel of that god among FX gods, Goldmans' Tom Stolper, whose fades generated anyone who did the opposite of his recos nearly 15,000 pips in profits over the years. It is time to move on... and start doing the same to his peer at Bank of America, the firm's head chartist, MacNeill Curry, aka Stolper 2.0, who incidentally was just stopped out of his EURUSD short.
The Islamic State/ISIS/ISIL has released its initial 'rebuff' propaganda response to President Obama's declaration of war against the 'non-islamic' terrorist organization. The brief video entitled "Flames of War" is shot like a blockbuster-movie-style trailer and threatens US troops and the White House. As Politico reports, the militant terror group vows that the “fighting has just begun” in the minute-long video, which features clips of American military forces under fire and a wounded U.S. soldier being taken from the battlefield. The video concludes as the words "Flames of War" flash on the screen, followed by "Fighting has just begun" and ends ominously: "Coming Soon." Even more concerning perhaps is al-Qaeda branches calling for all jihadists to unite against the common threat from a US-led coalition.