Existing Home Sales Slump In June - Weakest Summer Selling Season Since 2011

On the heels of homebuilder optimism tumbling to 8-month lows in July, existing home sales slumped in June (down 1.8%, more than the 0.9% decline expected) to the second lowest SAAR this year. Existing home sales are now unchanged since September, but we note that average prices are up 6.5% YoY.

Manufacturing Rebound Sends US PMI To 6-Month High (As European PMI Hits 6-Month Low)

Following Europe's PMI slump to six-month lows this morning, US Composite PMI rose to a six-month high, with Manufacturng surprising to the upside (4-mo high). The stronger PMI reading was supported by accelerated growth in output, new orders, employment and stocks of inputs during July, but the principal weak spot in the economy remained exports, with foreign goods orders dropping.

Trump Said To Consider Replacing Jeff Sessions With Rudy Giuliani: Axios

According to Axios, Trump is reportedly "so unhappy with Attorney General Jeff Sessions that he has raised the possibility of bringing back Rudolph Giuliani to head the Justice Department, according to West Wing confidants." As Axios adds, in internal conversations, Trump has recently pondered the idea of nominating Giuliani, "a stalwart of his campaign."

Caterpillar Retail Sales Post Longest Winning Streak In 51 Months

CAT's global sales have posted the longest positive streak in 51 months, and appear to have put the 4+ year depression in the read view mirror - even if Asian retail sales appear to be slowing once again - and are levitating higher, although just like during the 2011/2012 downturn, it all depends on how "hard" China's economic slowdown will be over the coming year.

EU To Retaliate "Within Days" If US Imposes New Sanctions On Russia

According to an internal memo leaked to the press, Brussles said it should act "within days" if new sanctions the US plans to impose on Russia prove to be damaging to Europe’s trade ties with Moscow. Retaliatory measures may include limiting US jurisdiction over EU companies.

UBS: "Political Entertainment While We Await The Fed"

The US Federal Reserve dominates the near term, with markets not looking for a quantitative policy tightening this month. The Fed's challenge is communicating long-term real world policy to investors obsessed with hashtag economics.

OPEC/Saudi 'Promises' Fail To Ignite Momentum in WTI Crude Prices

WTI crude remains stuck ominously below $46 despite a full court press jawboning, headline-pumping effort this morning. As oil leaders meet in St.Petersburg, Saudis promised to cut exports further, Nigeria suggested it would limit output (at dramatically higher-than-current production), Russia offered hope that Q3 had "big potential", and OPEC suiggested tighter compliance monitoring (as cheating has picked up in recent months).. but oil just won't budge.

Frontrunning: July 24

  • Kushner, Russian Ambassador Had Undisclosed Contact (WSJ)
  • Democrats take aim at big companies in economic blueprint (Reuters)
  • Trump open to signing Russia sanctions legislation (Reuters)
  • Senate GOP Unsure of What Health-Care Measure They Will Vote On (WSJ)
  • Japan PM Abe denies favors for friend amid falling support (Reuters)

The FX Week Ahead: The Dollar Crashes Again, Can The Fed Revive The USD At Wednesday's FOMC?

Looking at some of the price action, we have broken out of some key levels and areas, so in this respect, 'end of days' means an end to the uptrend which has seen the EUR rate pushing back through 1.1500, while the commodity currencies also look to have set a longer term low in place. What is doesn't mean - necessarily - is that the USD is going to implode, though the past week has seemed that way! 

Poland's President Unexpectedly Vetoes Bill On Judicial Reform, Zloty Surges

Polish President Andrzej Duda unexpectedly said on Monday that he would veto two of three bills reforming the country's judiciary system, easing Brussels' fears that the ruling Law and Justice party will undermine the division of powers. the Polish zloty, which had tumbled as the battle over the judicial reforms has unfolded, surged on the news, trading up 0.9 per cent at PLN4.24 against the euro

Protecting The Cheaters: EU Regulators In Bed With German Auto Industry Regarding Diesel

"We can debate at length what pollution standards should be. What’s not debatable is German auto corporations lied and cheated their way to good results and now they are caught with their pants down, at least twice. Either way, diesel is on the way out. And with that pending change, Germany’s vaunted lead in auto technology has turned into ashes. Meanwhile, EU regulators are prepared to look the other way in an attempt to give German manufacturers time to catch up."

A Month Of Multiculturalism In France: June 2017

"I am in fundamental disagreement with these left-wing people who do everything to dissociate fundamentalism from Islam. Islam has been radicalized for fifty years.."- Sir Salman Rushdie