• Tim Knight from...
    11/26/2014 - 19:43
    I read your post Pity the Sub Genius and agreed with a lot of what you wrote. However you missed what I think is the biggest killer of middle class jobs, and that is technological...

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Central Banks: When We Succeed, We Fail

Goosing stocks ever higher will eventually push wealth inequality to the point that it unleashes social instability.



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Frontrunning: November 24

  • Grand jury expected to resume Ferguson police shooting deliberations (Reuters)
  • PBOC Bounce Seen Short Lived as History Defies Bulls (BBG)
  • Home prices dropped in September for the first time since January (HousingWire)
  • UPS Teaches Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge NYC Taxis (BBG)
  • US oil imports from Opec at 30-year low (FT)
  • Hedge Funds Bet on Coal-Mining Failures (WSJ)
  • Putin Woos Pakistan as Cold War Friend India Buys U.S. Arms (BBG)
  • How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 Billion (BBG)
  • The $31 Billion Bet Against Brazil’s New Finance Minister (BBG)


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Futures Poised For New Record Highs On Weekend Central Bank Double Whammy

Another day, another case of central banks, not one but two this time, dictating "price" action.



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RANsquawk Week Ahead - 24th November 2014



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Your Role In The World Explained (In 1 Simple Sketch)

Presented without comment...



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There Goes The Shopping Spree: Nor'easter May Hit East Coast For Thanksgiving

Forget Black Friday and Q4 GDP... it appears, from the most recent forecasts that from Wednesday on this week, the eastern US faces a 'White Five-Day' as Accuweather reports "an increasing likelihood for a swath of heavy snow stretching from eastern Pennsylvania through New York's Hudson Valley and across much of New England before all is said and done." Furthermore, as WaPo notes, Wednesday’s possible storm has a chance to develop into a legitimate Nor’easter (though current models offer 3 scenarios).



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NATO Jets Surrounding Russia: Before And After



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American CEOs Sum Up The Economic Outlook: "Softness, Stagnant, Cautious, Challenging"

Since May, CEO confidence among America's largest companies had stagnated - even as stocks did what they do and rise, rise, rise. That changed when Bullard (now explained as "misunderstood" by the market) set fire to stocks with his QE4 hints and Plunge Protection Team rescue. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a noticable collapse once again in CEO confidence, according to Bloomberg's Orange Book index, even as stocks reach new higher all-time-er highs. As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes, recent earnings calls highlight the headwinds companies face: Executives cite “softness in consumer spending,” a “challenging” climate, “fairly stagnant economy,” and “cautious” optimism. Currency valuations are front and center.



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Pressures On The US Economy Just Increased

"Even if economic conditions continue improving, equity prices are bound to fall sharply at some point, inflicting painful losses on investors. This is what happened in 1987, roughly five years into the last structural bull market. Boom-bust cycles are inevitable because improving economic conditions encourage speculative excesses, which are then blown away as greed gives way to fear."



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The Japanization Of Europe In 9 "Different This Time" Charts

Still convinced it's different this time? Think again... these 9 charts suggest Europe is very much on its way to Japan... and remember Japan was doing QE through this period too...



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The Massively Crowded 'Long-USD, Short-Treasuries' Trade Just Got Crowded-er

The epic voyage of USD Longs and Treasury Shorts continues...



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Saxobank CIO: "Non-Productive Society Reigns Supreme In Most Developed Countries"

While reflecting on how many of 2014's "outrageous predictions" came true (and the still strong US equity markets), Saxobank CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen warns 2015 will see "deeper and deeper market corrections." If we continue to apply medicine to keep the patient alive, instead of dealing with the disease Jakobsen ominously warns, 2015 will see increased volatility and mean-reversion, "think in terms of October 1987 or 9/11."



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The Worst Case If The Oil Slump Continues: "A Profit Recession"

With hopes high, at least among corner offices of the majors, that this week's OPEC meeting will somehow manage to slow down the biggest plunge in crude prices since Lehman, it will take much more than mere talk and hollow promises to offset the recent cartel-busting actions of Saudi Arabia. So in a worst case scenario where supply remains unchanged even as global energy demand continues to decline sharply due to the ongoing global slowdown what is the worst case scenario that could happen - aside from the mass energy HY defaults discussed previously - should the price of a barrel of oil continue to correlate the change in 2014 global GDP estimated? Here are some thoughts from Deutsche Bank.



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Least Transparent Ever: Obama Fighting to Prevent Release Of CIA Torture Report

"In a tense confrontation with President Obama’s closest adviser on Thursday, a group of Senate Democrats accused the White House of trying to censor significant details in a voluminous report on the use of torture by the Central Intelligence Agency."



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The Iran Nuclear Talks (In 1 Lonely Photo)

With President Obama proclaiming this morning "it's too early to tell" if a nuclear-deal with Iran is still possible; and apparent confirmation this afternoon that differences are "still significant," the US is said to be discussing extending the nuclear-deal deadline. Yet again no consequences (for a newfound 'ally') and yet again John Kerry finds himself purposeless... and now we hear Vladimir Putin will be calling Iran's Rouhani tomorrow (one can only imagine the topic of conversation).



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