Just as we warned previously, it appears Russia is spoiling the oil-rally party. IFX reports that Russia's envoy has stated that they are "against oil output cuts." Furthermore, seemingly confirming no 'cut', Venezuela's Pino says "freeze" deal may only be temporary. So freeze at best (at record levels) and no cut..
Sterling is being pounded back below 1.21 - weakest since the flash crash lows, back to 31 year lows. The drop lacks an obvious trigger (more technical levels), but as The FT reports, nerves appear to be building in the run-up to a scheduled appearance by Bank of England governor Mark Carney to a House of Lords committee at 15:35 London time.
With exactly 2 weeks left until the November 8 presidential election, Wikileaks continues its ongoing Podesta dump by unveiling another 1,299 emails in the latest Part 18 of its release, bringing the total emails released so far to exactly 31,534, with just under 40% of the total dump left to go.
For the first time since June, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index declined YoY, plunging from near cycle highs at 104.1 (revised lower to 103.5) to 98.6 (missing 101.5 expectations), this is the biggest monthly plunge since Nov 2015, catching down to UMich and Bloomberg surveys. Employment and Business Conditions sentiment declined notably as did 'plans to buy' a home or appliance.
"...The salesman balanced the two coins on his forefingers, and placing them near my ear, he gently touched one against the other. The sound was the delightfully pure ringing of gold! So that’s how I became a gold-bug at age 10. I still have them, after all these long years – I am now 84..my gold coins went from 10 silver pesos in 1942, to 1,523,000 paper pesos in the course of about 74 years."
The US Dollar Index is up 5 weeks in a row and has just crossed above 99 for the first time since January 2016. As December rate-hike odds have surged since the Brexit vote, so the USD Index has tracked almost perfectly, rising almost 7% in that time (the fastest rise in 18 months)...
"Everything is awesome," right? According to the non-seasonally adjusted S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) Home Price index, prices have recovered all of their losses and are back at the highest since June 2006 record highs in August. All 20 cities saw home prices rises year-over-year (and 14 up MoM) but we note that this data does lag the disappointing home sales data from September.
Norwegian authorities reported that a radioactive leak had taken place at a nuclear research reactor in southern Norway. The reactor at the Institute for Energy Technology (IFE) in Halden leaked radioactive iodine, the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA) said.
"Economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged. In North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have a substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks."
While 3M's current quarter data was good, the largest Dow component confirmed a recurring trend observed among other reporting companies, namely skepticism about the future, when it trimmed the upper end of its full year EPS guidance: "For full-year 2016, 3M updated its forecast for earnings per share to be in the range of $8.15 to $8.20 versus a prior range of $8.15 to $8.30."
German police on Tuesday conducted numerous raids across five federal states and stormed an accommodation facility for refugees and 12 homes around the country that were believed to house people suspected of financing terrorism. Police searched residences in five federal states with Bild magazine citing "an imminent terror threat" as the trigger for the operation.
After a furious rally in the past week on hopes that Italy's oldest, and most insolvent, bank, Siena's Monte Paschi has turned the corner and would return to profitability while outside investors would finally help it in its seemingly endless quest to find $5 billion in outside capital, today BMPS shares plunged after first opening limit up in what can only be characterized as a roller coast market.
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.