Class of 2013: The Most Indebted Ever
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 16:32
70% of graduates had at least some debt according to the latest poll from Fidelity Investments but as the Wall Street Journal reports the average student-loan debt for a borrower who received a bachelor's degree in 2013 is $30,000 - an all-time record. With $986 billion of outstanding student loan debt (up 50% from Q1 2009) and unemployment rates running at or near all-time highs for the 16-24 year old cohort in this nation, it is little surprise that delinquencies are surging. The unemployment rate among graduates is 7.1% (which is considerably worse than it looks given that many are stuck in low-paid jobs) but it is those who don't complete college that face the greatest burden - the median annual income of a non-completer was $25,000 (compared to $33,900 for a degree holder), less than the average student loan debt. As the WSJ notes though, the 2013 class is unlikely to hold the 'most indebted class ever' title for long as 2014 enrollments and tuition costs look set to continue the 20 year trend...
- Comments: 103
- Reads: 13,932
"Boldly They Rode And Well", Or Why Japan Is Not America
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 15:30
The mistake Abe is making is to think the same trick that worked for the US will work for them. The problem, as Shirakawa no doubt realizes, is that the two country’s situations are not at all analogous, because the yen isn’t really a reserve currency in the same way the dollar is. There is no population of natural sovereign buyers who will be forced to print their own currency to mop up excess yen, as there is for the dollar. No sovereign is going to want to dramatically increase the allocations of their country’s reserves to the yen, not when it’s in the middle of being deliberately devalued, or really ever. Russia and China and Saudi Arabia don’t need any more yen, they have plenty. Oil isn’t priced in yen. Japan isn’t the world’s largest economy, or even its second largest. World trade isn’t conducted in yen. The emerging economies will just let it collapse. There is no natural sovereign sink for yen to drain into, as there is for the dollar, no group of buyers of last resort with bottomless pockets and no choice but to buy.
- Comments: 178
- Reads: 20,100
Saturday Humor: The Fed Is Hiring
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 13:34Now that the Federal Reserve has hired every single pennystock trader and momentum-chasing algo in the world (or at least is enjoying Citadel's helping hand in regards to the latter) it is time for the Fed's human resources department to branch out and fill those really important gaping holes.
Great job opportunity! Penetration Tester: rfer.us/FRS5ERsd.
— Federal Reserve Jobs (@FedReserveJobs) May 18, 2013
- Comments: 92
- Reads: 9,564
Italy's New Government Approval Rating Plummets From 43% To 34% In Three Weeks, Protests Return
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 13:20
It was less than a month ago that the new Italian government of the pseudotechnocrat Letta, of Bilderberg 2012 and Aspen Institute fame, was voted in by a majority of the PD and the PDL parties (the latter agreeing so Berlusconi would get an extension of his much needed political immunity from assorted prison sentences). It may not last too long. As Reuters reports, it took just 20 days for Letta's approval rating to plunge by 25%, dropping from 43% at the start of the month to 34%, according to an SWG institute poll. It would appear the Italian people (unlike their Japanese peers who at least according to government-controlled media data could not be happier with PM Abe, supposedly because of the bubblelicious 50% rise in the Nikkei225 year to date, even though under 20% are actually invested in the stock market making one wonder just how credible polling, and all other data in Japan actually is) don't have Mrs. Watanabe's childish fascination wth soaring stock bubbles, sexy bonds, mini skirts and 2% inflation bras, and instead demand real economic results. Which also means the protests are back.
- Comments: 58
- Reads: 7,605
Auditing The IRS: "Is There Any Limit To The Scope Where You Folks Can Go?"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 12:15
While it does have all the impromptu genuineness of a made for C-Span soap opera, the following exchange between Rep. Mile Kelly (PA) and the IRS' commissioner Miller was the highlight of yesterday's grilling of the IRS by the House Ways and Means committee, because rehearsed or not, it does capture the prevalent sentiment the US public harbors not only toward its tax collectors, but the government in general. "The IRS can do almost anything they want to anybody they want any time they want. This is very chilling for the American people.... This is a Pandora's box that has been opened.... This is a huge blow to the faith and trust the American people have in their government. Is there any limit to the scope of where you folks can go? Is there there any question that you should have asked: how much money do you have in your wallet, who do you get emails from, whose sign do you put up in your front yard: this ia tax question? The fact that you all can do just about anything you want to anybody: you can put anybody out of business any time you want.... I think the American people have seen what's going on right now in the their government. This is absolutely an overreach and this is an outrage for all Americans."
- Comments: 269
- Reads: 21,762
Spot The Odd Continent Out: Total Bank Assets As % Of GDP
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 11:07
There is a reason why in Europe, no matter how much some want to deny it, the Cyprus deposit confiscation "resolution" has become the norm. Quite simply, as BofA summarizes, "Europe's economy struggles with too many banks, too much debt and too little growth. A long history of empire, trade, war and commerce means a long history of banking. The world’s first state-guaranteed bank was the Bank of Venice, founded in 1157, and the world’s oldest bank today is also Italian, Monte Paschi di Siena (founded 1472). In many European countries, bank assets dwarf the size of the local economy and are far in excess of other regions in the world. This is similarly reflected in the local stock exchanges: even now financials account for 42% of the Spanish stock market and 31% of the Italian stock market versus ust 16% in the US."
- Comments: 88
- Reads: 22,381
North Korea Launches Three Missiles Into Eastern Sea
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/18/2013 - 09:51
Five days ago, when describing the launch of the joint-US, South Korean naval military exercise in the East Sea, we said that "for all his endless posturing, North Korea's Un has done absolutely nothing. And if his inability and unwillingness to translate threats into actions continue, that will pretty much be it for North Korea's hope to even get a few loose pennies as a nuisance factor" be it from the US, Japan, South Korea, or anyone else who is listening. It seems the North Korean leader has taken the hint, and overnight escalated from merely constant jawboning into at least some variant of activity, when he fired three short-range missiles into the sea off the eastern coast of the Korean peninsula on Saturday, "once again stirring tensions that had appeared to ease in the wake of a recent series of bellicose statements directed at South Korea and the U.S."
- Comments: 105
- Reads: 15,671
IRS Official In Charge During Tea Party Targeting Now Runs Health Care Office
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 21:57
We’d like to say that the following is unbelievable, but it’s not. Unfortunately, it is all too believable.
- Comments: 341
- Reads: 34,753
The 2013 Terrorism & Political Violence Map
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 21:16
The following map (via AON) measures the risk of political violence to international business in 200 countries and territories, based on three icons indicating the forms of political violence which are likely to be encountered: Terrorism and sabotage; Strikes, riots, civil commotion and malicious damage; and Political insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d'etat, war and civil war.
- Comments: 99
- Reads: 26,603
The S&P 500 Is Now A Gambler's Paradise With 76.9% Up Days In May So Far
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 20:45
Everyone knows the odds of winning in a casino are worse than 50% (often much worse depending on the game played). So who wouldn't rush to a casino where, instead, the odds were overwhelmingly in the gambler's favor? That's the promise of today's stock market, which has been experiencing an aberrantly high percentage of up days all year. Like all good benders though, this is going to end with one heck of a hangover...
- Comments: 104
- Reads: 19,272
Europe's EUR 500 Billion Ticking NPL Time Bomb
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 20:14
Europe's non-performing loan problem is such an issue that there is increasing bluster that the ECB may take this garbage on to its balance sheet since policymakers realize that bad debts and non-performing loans (NPLs) reduce the capacity of banks to lend, hindering the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Bad debts consume capital and make banks more risk averse, especially with respect to lending to higher risk borrowers such as SMEs. With Italy (NPLs 13.4%) now following the same dismal trajectory of Spain's bad debts, the situation is rapidly escalating (at an average of around 2.5% increase per year). With Periphery non-performing loans totaling EUR 720bn across the whole of the Euro area in 2012 and EUR 500bn of which were with Peripheral banks, it seems the Cyprus deposit haircut 'non-template' may indeed become the key template.
- Comments: 40
- Reads: 13,689
Guest Post: The Great "American" Divide
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 19:46
We have often spoken of the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. While asset prices are inflated by continued interventions of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, boosting Wall Street profits and widening the wealth gap between the top 20% of Americans and the rest, "Main Street" continues to suffer a from a rising cost of living and falling wage growth. "How long can the disconnect last between Wall Street and Main Street?" There is no clear answer for that as consumers have shown a willingness to draw down savings rates to historically low levels while quickly returning to cheap credit forgetting the disaster that it caused them not so long ago. However, in reality, when you have a family to feed, clothe and house - it really doesn't matter what is logical, but what is necessary, regardless of the consequences down the road. Of course, for many American's today, the only real difference between now and the "bread lines" of the 30's is that the "bread" is delivered in the mail rather than at the "soup kitchen" on the corner.
- Comments: 63
- Reads: 12,763
How A Last Second Flash Crash Pushed The S&P 500 From 1,667 To 1,666
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 19:13Those who were closely following the S&P cash in the last seconds before the close, and who were eagerly looking forward to a satanic close of 1,666, were likely disappointed when in the last 5 minutes of trading the cash index ramped from 1,665 and easily crossed in and out of 1,666, with the final print pointing to a mid-1,667 close. And then something happened: instead of a closing print of 1,667.50, over one point of the cash S&P suddenly was wiped out for no reason, in turn leading to the satisfactory 1,666 closing print or exactly 1,000 points higher than the "generational" lows of 2009. Yet, refreshing the settlement of the S&P500 an hour later, showed that the final closing price was, indeed, 1667.47.
So what happened?
- Comments: 125
- Reads: 22,457
US Senate Shows It Has Its Priorities Straight...
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 18:22
Well, you have to admit one thing - the United States Senate certainly has its priorities straight. Summing it up - what governments in Europe and the Land of the Free are telling us this week is:-
Beer and Populism: good.
Private property rights, freedom, privacy, business, price stability: bad.
- Comments: 74
- Reads: 12,725
Why Bulls Should Fear The "Money On The Sidelines"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 - 17:52
Much has been made of equity inflows this week (though we note a significant outflow from high-yield bond funds - just as risk-on in its nature) and once again the money-on-the-sidelines fallacy is hawked at every opportunity. Two critical aspects are important to get past this 'fact' as some positive driver. First, money does not 'enter' the market, it is swapped (e.g. Person A's cash is used to buy shares from Person B; after the transaction the roles are swapped with Person B holding cash on the sidelines and Person A holding shares); and secondly, as Morgan Stanley's Gerard Minack notes, despite all the disclaimers – retail flows assume that past performance is a good guide to future outcomes. Consequently money tends to flow to investments that have done well, rather than investments that will do well.
- Comments: 43
- Reads: 11,635



