• williambanzai7
    03/06/2015 - 08:01
    "we are faced with a geopolitical situation as dangerous as any we have faced since World War II." --Lord Rothschild

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The One Chart You Need To Predict The Future

After 30 years of success, the endgame is finally here. We are witnessing a profound secular sea-change: the failure of expanding debt and leverage to lift the real economy of wages and household income. When push comes to shove therefore, you only need one chart to predict the future...



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Ukraine, Neocons And Neonazis

There’s simply a very strong feeling, if not conviction, in the western media, that they’ve won the propaganda battle. But two portraits of US girl power in Ukraine from the Guardian and Bloomberg that appeared over the past two days are just unbelievbable. Victoria Nuland and Natalie Jaresko should not be praised by the western media, they should be taken apart bone by bone, because the roles they play are far too shady to stand up to our alleged democratic principles.



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If Your Stocks Are Down, Who Ya Gonna Call?

Janet's direct line..



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Who Knew What When In Gold & Stocks This Morning?

Gold trading this morning had some oddities. This was more than the normal shenanigans as just before the official release time of 0830ET, gold started to drop then accelerated past the official release time. But... the actual headlines hitting news wires were delayed because of the lack of lock-up and as is clear below, the 'real' selling did not start until those headlines hit. So was this auto-algo selling at 0830 no matter what to ensure markets got the message... or did someone get the unlock-up'd headlines 'earlier' than everyone else?



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Stocks Re-Tumble To Fresh Lows, Erase All March Gains

As the Goldman Apple Industrial Average drops below 18,000, the cash-open bounce in stocks has now been erased and the major US equity indices are making fresh lows. Despite AAPL's gains, the Nasdaq is now red for March and the S&P 500 down 1%...



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Despite Tsipras Complaining That "ECB Has Rope Around Our Neck" Greece Finds Enough Cash To Make IMF Payment

While the biggest economic event of the week was the US February jobs report, one of the lingering concerns following last week's report that Greece is in financial dire straits, is whether the Eurozone member nation would default on its IMF loan as soon as today when it had a scheduled €310 million payment due to the IMF. Earlier today, in the build up to the NFP report, it was reported that indeed Greece had managed to dig deep under the cushion and find just enough cash to make the required partial loan repayment thus avoiding a technical default.  As Reuters reports, "struggling to scrape together cash and avoid possible default, Athens made a 310 million euro (223.37 million pounds) partial loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund, while Tsipras pleaded to be allowed to issue more short-term debt to plug a funding gap."



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Did The BLS Again Forget To Count The Tens Of Thousands Of Energy Job Losses?

A month ago we asked if the "BLS Forget To Count Thousands Of Energy Job Losses" when as we showed, the BLS reported that only 1,900 jobs were lost in the entire oil and gas extraction space, which was a vast underestimation of what is taking place in reality, when compared to not only corporate layoff announcements, but what Challenger had reported was going on in the shale patch, when it calculated that some 21,300 jobs were lost in January in just the energy sector.  Today we ask again: did the BLS once more forget to add the now tens of thousands of jobs lost in the US energy sector? We ask because the divergence is getting, frankly, ridiculous.



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Are The Bond Vigilantes Back? Treasury Yields All Higher Year-To-Date For The First Time

5Y Treasury yields have swung 16bps from the immediate post-payrolls reaction trough. Across the entire curve yields are exploding higher and for the first time in 2015, all yields are now higher since the start of the year... 30Y yields are still 24bps lower post-QE3 but 2Y yields are 24bps higher.



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Why No Wage Increases: More Than Half Of Jobs Added In February Were Lowest-Quality, Lowest-Paying

The three biggest single-category jobs added in February (because Professional services includes numerous occupations), were also the three lowest quality, lowest paying ones:

Leisure and Hospitality, added 66K jobs
Education and Health added 54K
Retail trade added 32K

Together these three job categories accounted for 152K jobs, or more than half the total February job gains. They also represent the lowest paid jobs in the US.



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Warren Buffett - Lucky Coin Flipper?

Last week, Buffett moved the goalposts.  If money were what really matters, Warren Buffett would have no peer. He has had unparalleled success in this world; surely he has a first-class ticket to the next. And if his good fortune were of his own making, what would he have to fear? But what if fortune, which smiled on him so broadly for so many years, begins to frown?



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Goldman Payroll Post-Mortem: Fed Will Modify Forward Guidance, Possible June Rate Hike

Payroll employment continued to grow at a strong pace, exceeding consensus expectations. The unemployment rate fell due to lower participation. With the final employment report in hand before the upcoming FOMC meeting, we think the Committee will modify its forward guidance on March 18. Our forecast remains for the first hike in the fed funds rate to occur in September, but today's data affords the possibility of a hike as early as June



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Post-Payrolls Reaction: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Drop, Dollar Pops, As "Good News Is Bad News"

When the better-than expected headline data hit, stocks briefly questioned its reality then plunged. Bond yields initially tumbled (before the number had hit newswires) but once it did, they soared back higher (now up 6-8bps on the day). Crude plunged, bounced, and re-plunged as most commodities are notably lower amid the surge in the US Dollar. Good news, it appears is really bad news as a boxed-in Fed will be forced to raise rates.



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"As Goes Apple, So Goes America" - Apple To Replace AT&T In The Dow

When all else fails...

*APPLE WILL JOIN THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, WSJ SAYS

Prepare for unknown craziness as the world's largest and most-owned stock will dominate another index (along with Goldman as we noted previously).



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Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 92.9 Million As Participation Rate Declines Again

For those (very few now, with even the Fed admitting the unemployment rate has become a meaningless, anachronistic relic) still wondering why the unemployment rate dropped once again, sliding from 5.7% to 5.5%, the reason is that while the number of unemployed Americans dropped by 274K thousand while those employed rose by 96K, the underlying math is that the civilian labor force dropped from 157,180 to 157,002 (following the major revisions posted last month), while the people not in the labor force rose by 354,000 in February, rising to a record 92,898,000 (people who currently want a job rose to 6,538K) matching the all time high number of Americans not in the labor force.



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US Trade Deficit Worse Than Expected As Auto Exports Tumble

As Chinese exports crashed in January (and imports were extremely weak), one could be forgiven for expecting the US trade deficit to be more extreme than the tumble it experienced in December... but no. The US Trade Deficit printed $41.8bn, slightly worse than the $41.1bn expectation but 'better' than the adjusted $45.6 billion. Imports dropped 3.9% in January and Exports fell 2.9% but YoY imports fell 0.17% and exports fell 1.75% - the last time both fell YoY was November 2008. This is the 2nd month in a row of worse than expected deficits (and 4th of last 5). The shift is led by big drops in Food & Beverage (-9.1%) and Auto (-7.0%) exports and an 11.3% plunge in Industrial Supplies imports.



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