"Capitulation": Longest Streak Of Equity Outflows Since 2008; Biggest Gold Inflows Since 2010

The latest Lipper fund flow data is an and it is not pretty: in the latest week, there was $12.2 billion in equity outflows, the largest weekly redemption in 5 months and more importantly, this represents 7 straight weeks of outflows: the longest streak since 2008. However, offsetting this we just had the biggest 2-week gold inflow ($3.2bn) since May’10.

Japan Goes Full Goebbels: Government Cracks Down On Media Over Negative Economic Reporting

Shinzo Abe promised the Japanese people a glorious economic recovery, but the economy sucks. Nevertheless, Shinzo Abe wants to stay in power as long as possible and the best way for him to achieve this is to call for snap elections this summer. This presents quite the dilemma. How does Abe prevent his popularity from slipping further in order to give himself a chance of winning early elections? It seems he found his answer. Crackdown on the media by ensuring anyone who dares criticize him or him idiotic, failed polices is fired.

Fed Doves Cry As Core Consumer Prices Jump At Fastest Pace Since August 2011

This must be trasitory, right? Core Consumer Prices surged 0.3% MoM - the biggest jump since August 2011 - and is up 2.2% YoY (the most since June 2012). Furthermore, Shelter costs surged 3.7% YoY - the most since October 2008. We assume this will be ignored for a data-dependent Fed that needs to keep the easing dream alive (as long as stocks are off the highs)...

WTI Crude Tumbles Back Below $30

As yesterday's DOE report - and later details from Genscape - hint at storage concerns becoming critical so overnight weakness in WTI crude is accelerating with the current front-month (March) which is set to roll, dropping back below $30, erasing the OPEC-Russia hype gains...

These Activist Investors Have Been Crushed By The Oil Rout

Thirteen activist investors with the largest fund exposure to the energy sector have suffered a combined $9.2 billion in unrealized paper losses in 2015, according to quarterly filings analyzed by hedge fund data firm Symmetric.io. But nobody's combined loss is as big as that of Carl Icahn.

Frontrunning: February 19

  • Stocks knocked back as oil rally falters (Reuters)
  • Still no deal for Britain on EU reforms after all-night talks (Reuters)
  • Oil Falls Near $30 as Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles Expand Glut (BBG)
  • PBOC to Raise Reserve Ratios for Banks That Don't Meet Criteria (BBG)
  • China’s Top Securities Regulator to Step Down (WSJ)

Deere In Headlights After Guidance Cut: Sees 10% Sales Drop Due To "Downturn In Global Farm Economy"

It is not just Caterpillar that continues to post horrendous numbers, and has now recorded 38 consecutive months of declining Y/Y sales, double the length of the contraction of the great financial crisis. Moments ago heavy farm equipment maker Deere likewise shocked its investors with a round of terrible numbers, when at first it reported a revenue and EPS beat, announced it had earned $0.80 EPS in Q4, above the $0.71 estimate, on $5.53BN in revenue, well above the $4.90BN expected, however it was the unprecedented drop in the forecast that was the punchline.

Chinese Money-Market Rates Are Spiking As Post-New-Year Liquidity Hangover Hits

It would appear the Chinese central bank currency squeeze is back as money-market rates are exploding higher once again. With the outpuring of liquidity heading into the new-year holiday, the post-celebration hangover was always likely unless PBOC just kept pumping but judging by the 500bps spike in overnight Yuan interbank rates to 9.3%, more than a few banks are desperate for some liquidity. We note that the last six times that Chinese banks have suffered liquidity constraints, US equities have tumbled...

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Bilal Erdogan Accused Of Money Laundering In Italy

Bilal Erdogan, son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and alleged patron saint of Islamic State's illicit oil trafficking enterprise, is being accused on money laundering in Italy. His lawyers "have nothing to say."

Markets Ignore Fundamentals And Chase Headlines Because They Are Dying

No society wants to admit economic failure or economic sabotage, and this is why the con-game is able to continue in the face of so much concrete truth. Ultimately, the market trends and economic trends will flow into the negative. In the meantime, expect massive market rallies, rallies which will then disintegrate in a matter of days. And, whatever happens, never take what mainstream economists say very seriously. They have failed the public for long enough.